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sergso
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Posts posted by sergso
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Is anyone here using this indicator ? I would be interested in disccusisng findings and ways of best use.I recently subscribed to the website premium analysis and it appears that this indicator has good predictive capacity given that one understands it. I still have an issue with using de-trended data or not. I think this is a very important problem in technical analysis.
P.S. I just checked and the indicator call was good as it anticipated the correction that lasted through May.
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I know a guy who was doing a PhD in quantitative finance. He developed a system using neural nets and support vector machines (SVM). What the program actually did was backtest all possible combinations of over a 100 technical indicators, again with all possible parameters and trade using the ones which are most stable. He showed me rolling backtests results and they looked very impressive. However, when he executed the system live it kept losing consistently. I do not have the technical know-how to comment on what was lacking in his system, but I did not like that he had no previous experience in trading, and hence no observations about market functioning prior to trading system development.Good story, probably one of thousands. The PhD fell victim of data-mining bias. His systems were spurious by virtue of the fact that he reused the data millions of times until he got something he liked. But the market did not like what he liked. This blog explains it all.
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Your statement is not correct , and this is possibly due to your lack of knowledge.I want to assure you that I have more knowledge than you on this subject, far more than you can imagine, have or will ever have. I have read some of the posts and you sound like a beginner in this who tries to prove himself. No problem, forums are full of this but you won't convince me that you ever made money in forex chasing pips consistently. You are welcome to post an audited record if you wish. But talk is cheap. Costs nothing.
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Anyone who trades forex or other contracts like commodities for a few ticks will lose it all at the end. There are no profitable systems for this kind of thing because the MMs call the shots. Anyone who will try to teach you to do that is simply trying to recover his losses.
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You guys sound like experts in forex. What sense do you make of this system[/url] by looking at the entries/exits? I was always afraid of Forex to risk much but if this is true I may try it but before I would like to get some opinions.
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IMO Scalping is much harder than most of the other day jobs..i better be a 9-5 employee than being a scalper..Well said. I agree with that.But it is not even a question about harder or easier job. Some markets do not reward scalpers. Example.
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surely some one would have written a book for less tan $50 , without having to navigate , so books are written by failed traders who sell education?Like Soros for example
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When the guy how owns the deli across the street tells me that he bought stocks I will know the top is in place. He is still bearish...
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There are many types of trader. I think, Stock trader is the best.OTC stock trader maybe?
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If you have a way of navigating through the maze of information then free is good.
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A trader takes money from other traders. It helps to have had experience gaining money from others before someone delves into trading. A person can learn a lot about trading by learning how to buy a car (or any other object) and sell it at a profit. He'll learn how to buy from people needing to sell and sell to people who need to buy. He'll also learn how to cut his losses when he made a mistake and be patient when he knows he is right. Those same skills will help a trader identify when a market is underpriced or overpriced so that he can buy low and sell high or the reverse. The rest is simple. Create or use the available tools and techniques for risk management and market entry and exit and go to work buying or selling. I think learning how to trade in the markets is suicide or you will waste a whole lot of time.Some very good points but learning to trade in the markets is essential imo.
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There is no way to win scalping forex because you are trading against the broker in most cases or against someone with ability to move the market. Maybe is better to consider short-term trading with wide stops outside of daily volatility range. This is a good tool for measuring volatility: Forex Volatility | Forex Volatility Calculator | Volatility Calculation
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What are the prizes?
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But automated robots do not have a mind to transform:)
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Good post. Thanks........
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Bear market is around the corner. imo. Pls do not invest based on my opinion, do your own homework.
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To become successful trader what i thought is to improve your knowledge about trading, observe the big fish and follow the trend.Good advice. Only trend makes money.
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2 ES points per day is plenty. If you have something like that, then you should trade it. I would guess that you don't have a strategy that returns 2 ES points a day, otherwise you would be trading it and making a lot of money.CAGR/Max DD
This is how mutual funds are rated.
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"This theory is that a small initial condition such as a butterfly flapping its wings could cause a large difference such as a change of weather on the other side of the world. "
Of course it cannot. It is used only as an exaggeration because of the butterfly looking graph in chaos theory. Chaos theory cannot be applied to forex because price moves in brownian motion which is stochastic, not chaotic. Most chaotic systems are deterministic. I guess some may use Chaos Theory as a buzzword of some kind. Keep in mind that chaos in the traditional sense has to do with numerical solutions that blow up because of accumulated errors in calculations. Nothing of that relates to the real world.
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Good article. Thanks!
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I started with TA like mostly everyone else. Then I tried candlesticks which were a total failure for me in any way I tried them Maybe I was not good enough for them. Then I tried to trade news and fundamentals and I just was breaking even. After about 4 years of frustration I started studying price action. I came across blogs like Price Action Lab blog and I also use the Price Action Lab software as a scanner and together with Strategy Quant. to develop systems. I trade high cap stocks, futures and forex. I am about to turning profitable using these methods soon I hope.
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why do some brokers reduce leverage settings when it comes to market close and open. I want to confirm is it because of the "gap" and higher leverage could lead to higher profit for clients? I only generally see this at market makers!Can someone confirm?
Most brokers internalize orders (take the other side) and want to limit their risk of adverse moves.
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If anyone is consistently losing even after trying everything, he/she should leave the trading space, he was not made for it.This is true for every business. What ia a relevant timeframe do you think? I think about 2 years should be enough with full-time trading.
Why Do Candlestick Patterns Work?
in The Candlestick Corner
Posted
Lately I seem not to have any success with traditional candlestick patterns.