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sergso
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Posts posted by sergso
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My problem is that from what everyone says my profits aren't reasonable, I trade TF with only 2 contacts at a time and on average I make between $300 and $600 a day, with my worst day ever I only made $60, and on my best I made $1100. Are those numbers realistic or am I maybe using the software incorrectly or something?Nothing about virtual trading is realistic. Imo the e-mini contract is a very efficient market with very fast robots and thus hard for humans to make money with intraday trading. I guess some will out of luck alone. Good luck anyway.
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That's a good question and almost philosophical… I guess, the 'taking advantage' can only go so far as long as a market exists, i.e. people/institutions continue to participate in it, although they are being screwed from time to time.Btw, it is not only the retail trader's stops that get hunted but also those of professional funds… there are many different participants in this big shark tank and everybody tries to "eat the other"
… sometimes one party "wins", sometimes the other… that's what keeps participants in the game… the conviction that overall they come out as a winner… naturally this can only be true for some of them over a certain period of time… and for less and less participants the more this time period is extended...Stop hunting is a byproduct of everyone trying to win. At the end of the day stops will get hit. If someone does not like this reality of the market then he must stay away. Besides for most people the market is recreational activity for which they are willing pay a fee. Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.
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Excellent post!The only thing is, it's usually not the broker or bank that hunts stops (with the exception of some CFD and spot forex brokers). In former times the locals did that, but nowadays it's specialized funds that do that.
Good point but this is the name of the game. Can markets operate in more "user friendly terms"?
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Price patterns with no parameters seem to work much better than lagging indicators like DMI, MACD, RSI, etc. This blog has an interesting article about different types of systems.
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I visualize the Market as a Great White Shark, and I, a Remora, attached to it; feeding off its scraps. I neither control the travels of the shark nor when it feeds. I simply swim in its sphere; never ahead of it (for that could prove disastrous), never anticipating it.I am the Remora...Not The Shark.
...and your trading method is?
P.S. What about another shark who will notice you are attached to some shark?
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Hi everyone,I'm having problem with my trading and I want some help . I consider myself a swing trader and my method is following the trend and watching price action as confirmation for entry. My problem is I'm always losing . There are times when ny positions are in profit but I'm just not so sure when to move ny stops and then I get stopped out even when the trade was right. I try to cut losses by closing out positions that are not working the next day and Minot even sure if this is what people say cutting your losses short means. I need help people . Thanks .
Your problem is too common so be sure it has nothing to do with your intelligence or ability. It mostly has to do in my opinion with the naive ways to trading you were exposed to through reading of books, associations with self-proclaimed gurus and article reading in the Internet and trading magazines. I do not know the details of what you do but in general to make money you have to move beyond what is common knowledge about trading.
A few very important things in my opinion:
(1) Be adequately capitalized (this is a must read article for all new traders)
(2) Aim at a high reward:risk ratio. If you have a low R:R you need to be correct very often and that is hard, if not impossible.
(3) Leave intraday trading to the experts and robots. You cannot compete with that class or you will lose everything and they will have a nice time with your money. Learn first how to win in position trading with wide enough stops and large enough objectives to have a high R:R.
(4) If you will use technical analysis make sure you can use it better than the experts otherwise they will enjoy your money.
(5) Avoid leverage and trading on margin. Eventually your lenders will get you.
...and do not quite trading, just downsize until you understand what is going on because now you do not. Good luck to you.
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Good traders do not case if the market will rise or drop. This is of concern to investors. My trades last from a few hours to a few days and I use detrended data anyway.
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"I’m about to pull out what little hair I have left. I keep running into the same brick wall over and again. I’ve been trading 5 years and I win consistently when "play money" is on the table. But the moment I move from paper money to real money and really risk my capital, things just go haywire. And I don’t know why."
The answer is easy. When you stop paper trading you leave dreamland and you enter reality.
The only way to learn how to trade is by risking money and doing real trades. Only then you face reality.
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1. Why
To get rich.
2. Commitment
I spend 6 hours trading and 4 more on system development
3. Timeframe and method
Short term momentum and reversals (swings), EOD, 1H data.. Setups are data-mined by Price Action Lab and the code for Multicharts is also generated by it..
5. Money management
Fixed fractional 1% - 2% of bankroll on each trade. Cumulative risk of all positions not greater than 3% at any time.
6. Product
Index ETF, high cap stocks, futures, forex.
8. Platform
Multicharts 8.7
10. Computer
AMD 8 core CPU. I use 4 PCs, 2 for trading and 2 for development. backups are made daily and full backups weekly.
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Good stuff! Looking forward to the next one.
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Trading on news is like trying to figure what happens in the universe now by looking at the stars. What you see is what happened millions of transactions before.
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Trading is a business rampant with failure. HOWEVER, EVERY FAILURE BRINGS A TRADER CLOSER TO SUCCESS. If he can learn from it.or closer to total ruin even if he learns from it unless he learns faster than he fails.
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The bottom line is that the strategy he was employing wouldn't work for the majority of retail traders who have very limited accounts.....Very true for most strategies. Capitalization is almost as important as strategy but millions start with the hope the odds will be on their side but their are not. Here is a good read on this subject. Actually I consider its author a true guru because he emphasizes risk management and that trading is a probability game.
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If you lost money then the market did not go your way, at least the market they are making. I have experienced all sorts of problems with online forex brokers and I gave up on them because of frequent lockouts, spikes and other weird events. Did you ask their support? What did they tell you? My best explanation is that your they have very wide spreads and when your limit order was hit it was filled a little below your entry price.
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But any knowledgeable person would take the gold and run
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One of the major benefits of social platforms is that they are more trustworthy than a lot of advice that you’ll find on the internet; you can see exactly how people are trading themselves, and how successful they are. You don’t need to take someone’s word for something; you can see what they’re doing.Any way you propose doing that other than spending all day looking at each and every post?
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What is an asset bubble? In other words, how do you know when an asset or a group of assets is in a bubble or have become a bubble?Patuca
When a taxi driver, a barber, a stripper in a club or your son's girlfriend to name a few in a club tells you to buy something it is in a bubble.
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I am turning bullish on gold and have the feeling that there will be a severe plunge in the stock market soon. Just a feeling. I know it's not good to rely on feelings but I handle them with options:)
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Update your browsers. Chrome is better. If you use IE 8 trash it. I have no problems whatsoever.
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The best way to survive a losing streak is not to have one in the first place.
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One thing im sure of is that Gold is going to achieve its 1500-1600 level again. 2014 may start as the correction year for gold taking it back to the 1500-1600 levels in the coming 2-4 years.Demand is going to be the biggest question.Many countries and banks are on a very thin demand for gold but that may change with gold going to be at such bargain prices.+ good post. I think there is also possibility that something else will replace gold as inflation hedge/safe heaven status soon.
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I will go along with Price as my favorite indicator. Most other indicators are simply derivations of price, so price is in essence, the most important indicator.There is an indicator that is based only on price without averaging and moves between 0% and 100% like an oscillator. It was developed by Mike Harris in the 1990s and described in his books - called the p-indicator. It is implemented in his software which is expensive for retail traders. I figured out that the concept behind it has to do with ensemble averages. He is using it to estimate directional probabilities in his blog.
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I cannot find the link and I do not remember the name now but a well-known blogger and trader has shown with math that leverage above 3x is plain disaster. I think so too. High leverage is a compensation scheme for brokers and market makers to take the money of the newbies.
Pros and Cons of Quant Trading
in Forex
Posted
Good article. To me quant trading means having a solid measure of risk and reward for each trade. This can be done with statistical analysis (t-test, Monte Carlo, etc.) One drawback is that the future may not resemble the past and the statistics will not be valid. Using the most appropriate analysis to measure risk and reward can make the difference. IMO backtesting setups in many markets increases the significance of any statistics like it is done in this website that uses come concepts and a methodology useful to quant trading. .