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BlueHorseshoe

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by BlueHorseshoe

  1. Posted

    I am just thinking I dont have that much to spend in trading yet I have the courage to try. I am just afraid I'd fail.

     

    Not rich? Join the club :)

     

    You should try to be realistic about what you expect to achieve. A 10% return each year is perfectly acceptable. 20% is very good. And 30% theoretically places you amongst the elite performing hedge funds. If you think you're going to be quadrupling your money every month then forget it.

     

    Secondly, realize that position sizing is one of the main factors in growing your account. Assuming you need to double your account before you can double your position size, then there is going to be a long wait before you can increase your position size if you're trading something that costs a lot of money (like a leveraged futures contract). You need to trade something with less value so that once your account has increased by, say, just 1%, you can increase your position size by 1% (as opposed to waiting until your account has increased by 100% to increase your position size by 100% because you can't by 1% chunks of a contract). In my opinion this "granularity" is absolutely essential if you want to grow a small account.

     

    Hope that helps!

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  2. Posted

    Hi friends,

     

    New to posting here, lurking for some time.

     

    I am sure this indicator exists, but I cannot find it, so I'm asking here. (Moderators, if this would be better posted else where, please move it.)

     

    I am simply after a moving average indicator for use in Tradestation that prints one color (say green) when in an uptrend, and another color (say red) when in a downtrend. A simple MA is fine, nothing fancy.

     

    This simple visual aid must exist, can someone kindly point me to the code?

     

    Thanks, and prosperity to all,

    JohnGo

     

    Hi JohnGo,

     

    The question would maybe be better posted in the TradeStation programming forum, but to be honest I'm guessing that I am now the only person left on TL who would answer your question, so . . .

     

    I'm assuming that you know how to create an indicator if I write the code for you? If not then let me know.

     

    I am also assuming that by "when in an uptrend" you mean that the MA itself is sloping upwards, rather than when price is above it. This will provide a smoother signal with fewer whipsaws.

     

    inputs:price(close),length(100),upcol(green),dncol(red);
vars:avg(0);

avg=average(price,length);

plot1(avg);

if avg>=avg[1] then
setplotcolor(1,upcol)
else
setplotcolor(1,dncol);

     

     

    Your indicator will need four inputs - the data to use for the average (defaults to close), the length of the average, the colour when the average is rising, and the colour when the average is falling.

     

    Hope that helps!

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  3. Posted

    What tick chart would you suggest ? thanks for the input !!

     

    Flip a coin. Toss a dice. Whatever you like. Use a 938 tick chart. Or a 265 tick chart. Or whatever.

     

    Or listen to Urma Blume and use a volume chart. Or use range bars. Or a renko chart . . .

     

    Get the picture yet?

     

    THERE ARE NO MAGIC NUMBERS!

     

    Regards,

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  4. Posted

    Indeed its true - not hard at all. I have explored martingale grids that achieve over 98% wins but it only takes one strong move to wipe you out. To the original poster, %win isn't as important as one may think. Expectancy combined with frequency within your drawdown tolerances is where you should look IMHO.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK

     

    I suppose that in an ideal world, what you want to do is operate that strategy on a vast scale with insane leverage, banking your 98% gains along the way, and then have someone bail you out when the one strong adverse move comes along . . .

     

    I'm pretty sure this approach has been used fairly recently, but I can't quite think where . . .

    :)

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  5. Posted

    Hey everyone , I have a quick question that I cant seem to find the answer to, does anyone use moving averages on a tick chart ? I typically use a 233 and 377 tick chart... any responses would be appreciated .

    Thanks.

     

    An average is an average. It does what it says on the can. If you want to know the average of prices as displayed on your tick chart, then use an average.

     

    What's with the 233 tick chart anyway - you haven't been reading that awful Carter book, have you?

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  6. Posted

    Hello everyone,

     

    I'm not new to software development, I've been a developer for fifteen years, the last several years coding with C#.

    I'm not new to trading, I've traded stocks and options for three years.

     

    However, I am new to automated trading. I'm trying to automate the Apex Traders platform, which sits on top of the OEC API.

     

    Neither they, nor OEC, offers a whole lot of help getting started. They seem more like they are willfully withholding assistance. I am confident that I can figure out HOW to do most of what I need to do, but what is missing is WHAT I should do in the first place.

     

    I've created a simple strategy to get started and learn from, and struggled with trade execution, but got it working. I can get both of those things working in back test. However, I'm tearing my hair out trying to get it to trade in real time. I put the thing out there, enable it, turn on intra-bar execution, and it does... nothing. The Process() method isn't even called.

     

    Coding by trial-and-error (and dumping debug to text files) is just no way to live! I've read the docs, they don't help. Most of their docs are just function lists that I can get from intellisense anyway. No descriptions. That's not useful.

     

    What would be immensely helpful would be an example. If some kind person would post a very simple end-to-end strategy -- and indicators if the code needs some sort of signal to execute in real-time -- that works both in back-test and real time it would be infinitely helpful. I don't care if it loses on every trade, just as long as it is a good example of everything needed to automate an OEC app. Even if it were EL, I can convert it.

     

    Thanks in advance,

    Platypus

     

    Hello,

     

    I will PM you a possible solution . . .

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  7. Posted

    I found that most FX Brokers do not tolerate scalping, even though they say is acceptable. I tried it using an expert & I saw little success. I have to agree with the others, that day trading is more effective in the long term, provided that you're willing to take the time to analyse the markets.

     

    Hello,

     

    Do you mean that the broker doesn't allow scalping, or that you had little success, and would like to blame the broker rather than the method you employed?

     

    If you're talking about pure scalping (buy bid, sell ask), then then the interbank spot fx market is the very last place to try and do this - you can't see any information about the order book (because there isn't one), so you have no idea how many orders are queued behind you, at what rate active participants are prepared to cross the spread etc.

     

    Kind regards,

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  8. Posted

    From a mouse or not, you are a bridge buyer.

     

    I'm lost . . . Are 'bridges' and 'mice' some sort of new derivative that I haven't yet heard of?

     

    Can I write covered calls if I think the 'bridge' has strong support? Do the 'mice' have fat tails? Need more info before I can get involved . . .

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  10. Posted

    Maybe I am missing something but I could not find a quiz anywhere on this thread. Was it removed?

     

    Yes, the quiz was removed.

     

    It was a quiz to help you decide what kind of animal you are: a Shark, a Bull, a Squirrel, or a pug-faced seal cub destined to be clubbed over the head and made into a nice hat . . .

     

    'Cos that's really why you came to a TRADING FORUM, isn't it - to find out what kind of animal you were?

     

    You want one more chance? Get dressed. I'll show you my charts.

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  12. Posted

    thank you, I missed that

     

    solved

     

    TW

     

    Hi Wiz,

     

    You weren't meant to remove the image with the descriptions, just the broker hyperlink underneath!

     

    Without the image, the thread now has absolutely no point of reference; it is a signpost to nowhere, like something from Baudrillard's worst nightmares . . .

     

    Please can you restore the image? If I don't have the chart from the opening post how will I know whether to define myself as a Bull or a Shark or a Squirrel or a Smurf, or whatever those helpful classifications were?

     

    Or . . . why not just remove this whole pointless, meaningless, rambling thread?

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  14. Posted

    I have queried that fact here.

    http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/introduction-technical-analysis/17569-wedges-5.html#post188701

     

    Seems wiz has a problem with neutrality and even handedness.I guess that's the new policy here.Naturally this is doing nothing to stem the outflow of long termers here.You won't be seeing much of zdo in future.

    I can only assume they want a complete change here in favour of a more commercially successful model.And we know what that means don't we?

     

    Doesn't really make much sense either way. Do TL have an IB deal with "gomarkets" or whatever they were called? I doubt it. TL IB links generally seem to be automated, like when I type the wrod "tradestation" . . .

     

    Maybe The Wiz has "gone native"?

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  16. Posted

    another way of killing a thread/discussion

     

    I will not allow this kind of replies anymore, no offence to any of participants.....maybe someone is really interested for a real answer instead of this nonsense

     

    TW

     

    What you should be not allowing is the "gomarkets" forex broker hyperlink in the text of the original post . . . surely?

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  17. Posted

    Maybe in that sad excuse for a quiz you're a shark.In my quiz you're a .

     

    Hi Mitsubishi,

     

    Please can you post your quiz? I've a suspicion it might be quite good fun . . . :)

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  19. Posted

    It doesn't make a sense you make equal forex to evening relaxational hobby.. but it is impossible..

     

    Nope, it's not impossible. And it makes perfect sense.

     

    There's really no need for all that "fancy dancing" intra-day that vendors encourage. Most traders profitability would probably improve if they just sloooooooow down!

     

    There are fund managers making great returns who act on a monthly basis. Time is like leverage - it can increase your profits, but it can also increase your losses.

     

    End of day is fine. End of day works. End of day can even be relaxing :)

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  21. Posted

    Just out of interest, of the 1200 or so trades in the back test what percentage of time is your nice looking equity curve making new equity highs ? (I suspect it's less than 20% of the time)

     

    Unfortunately I can't provide this statistic . . . I didn't record it at the time, and now there is no way that I can recall the trading decisions that this particular instance of the strategy enacted, as they were random.

     

    Having said all that, I imagine that the equity curve made new highs little of the time as you suggest. Single unit equity curves, whether profitable or not, spend most of their time regressing towards a mean. New traders may struggle with this, but so do others.

     

    This thread is not posted in Trading Psychology, but . . . :offtopic:

     

    I have issues with this. I don't suffer from any excessive egoism. I am not someone who is obsessed with being a "winner". I trade an entirely mechanical approach with no discretionary decisions for which I am "responsible". Due to the self-learning methodology I employ, elements of the strategy are completely 'hidden' from me (I really have little idea of the specifics of what the strategy is doing, beyond the broad strokes).

     

    But I can still watch a position and end up massively frustrated. Why?

     

    What to do???

     

    A recent post from SIUYA sums it up perfectly:

     

    recognize it, work out a solution that works - probably by trial and error, and then fix it

     

    In my case, I got someone else to place the trades.

     

    I pretty much ignore it all. They don't care, so they follow the radar screen I gave them. To them, it's all OPM. I don't check the account balance (different broker to TS, who I use for charting). I follow the ES and EC more closely intra-day, so I have a good idea what these are doing, but I have no idea about my likely position in timber ETFs or REITs, say - maybe I'm long, maybe I'm flat, maybe I'm short . . . maybe I'm rich, maybe I'm broke . . . .

     

    The only thing I know is that if I'm directly involved I'll sabotage it :)

     

    Hope that helps someone.

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  22. Posted

    Very sorry my poor English won't allow me understand the last question. I would ideally not put an order above 93, in accordance with what I said above.

     

    Cheers

     

    Kuokam

     

    Hello,

     

    It was my English that was poor - not yours!

     

    "Topside" isn't really a word (except as a cut of beef!) - I should have said "to the top side of" or "above" . . . Your post answers that question anyway :)

     

    Thanks,

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  23. Posted

    What happened next is: the order got triggered, price went down 8 ticks and came right back to trade 8 ticks up. As of this writing it 6 ticks up.

    But I am not trading, I preffer the highs and lows, they seem to me more dependable than the steps in the profiles / value areas.

    Please note that this is January 2014 contract.

     

    Hi Kuokam,

     

    Thanks for that - a helpful insight!

     

    Your platform does indeed appear to provide more information than does mine, although there is a possibility that I can tweak the default settings on the DOM to see at least the total bid and ask size. And I do see what you mean about the thinner depth in Crude making it easier to spot a large order (or group of orders) - you'd have thought they would have gone to at least a bit of effort to shred an order that was nearly half the resting bid!

     

    I have found the Value Area High and Low of the prior day's session to hold significance for initiating trades against, although I agree that the highs and lows are certainly what provide the context in terms of direction.

     

    If you were short, then, at the time of the first shot you have posted, would you have had increased confidence that the market would take out the 93.50 level to consume the liquidity there? If you knew you wanted to take profit a little below that level, would you have brought your buy limit topside of the 93 contract bid?

     

    Cheers,

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  24. Posted

    Hi Bluehorse, please find my reflections below yours.

     

    I have to plot the executed orders separately as what is typically known as "volume delta", and don't see them on the Matrix (or not by time - I can view cumulative profile against the DOM if I wish).

     

    I assume that you don't mean that you are able to see un-executed resting stop orders? These aren't held on the exchanges servers. If you can see these via your broker, please let me know what broker you are using :)

     

    Kind regards,

     

    BlueHorseshoe

  25. Posted

    Like always, anything can and do happen.

     

    Hi Kuokam,

     

    Some great points there, I think.

     

    Anything can and does happen, but reactions to these large orders are seldom ambivalent, and often polarized.

     

    Sometimes, they seem like a giant magnet, sucking price towards them - as though everyone is looking at a large bid and thinking "there's a nice bit of liquidity to sell into", and at other times they prove a barrier which price is clearly reluctant to test - as though everyone is looking at a large bid and thinking "it'll never sell its way through that, no point shorting".

     

    Once there, don't forget you are awaited by the monsters to swollow you up, so let them fight and follow the winner AFTER THE FIGHT, not before.

     

    That seems like a good piece of advice.

     

    What I like in CL is that huge orders are really outstanding. At times you can see an order the size of the total of the then resting orders.

     

    Can you explain this a little more? Do you mean you see the depth at a given price double?

     

    One issue with the ES is that the orders tend to get shredded. A greater depth is just as likely indicative of where a lot of participants want to act, as where one single participant wants to act. That's not especially problematic unless you ascribe significance to the actions of large traders rather than large groups of smaller traders (I don't).

     

    My observation so far is that first huge orders are stop losses, and the ordres to enter are a bit farther. Anyway I tend to act with that on my mind.

     

    The resting orders we see are limits - how could they be stop-loss orders? I'm a bit confused by this.

     

    Thanks,

     

    BlueHorseshoe

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