raul

Thanks TW. I have a chart of the ES but I trade the Russell, it usually has a larger range and thus more profits, I have read some articles that show the Russell trends better, less whipsaw, as with everything it's not 100%. On the ES one can see the major turning points and I believe the Russell follows the ES because of the larger volume. Today was very choppy and that is why I like having a chart of Crude Oil and Copper on another screen. While watching paint dry on the indices, crude oil took off and did well over $1k per contract. Unrelated to this thread, copper trends very well on Sunday afternoon (Pacific time) for reasons I don't understand (Asian markets?) so that's a trade to get a jump start on the week. Regarding upthrusts and springs, they are retests of a low or high with partial penetration (higher high or low but not a close) on the second attempt and then a full reversal, I think the same patterns go by other names like 123 patterns, failed or fake breakouts (thus a reversal). The mechanics of why these patterns are repeated have been explained as price manipulation by the professionals, they will buy at the bottom or near the bottom and then start a campaign to push prices higher, with some large orders injected here and there to get it going until the crowds finally join in, the professionals will then sell off partially at the top, prices come down, more retail (amateur) trades join in not wanting to miss out on the bull run, prices go up again but there is no follow up from the professionals (where large volume and money comes in), then the professionals sell off their remaining holdings and the trend reverses to repeat the cycle going down (to trap and milk the retail traders). Recognizing candles showing exhaustion selling or buying is key to identifying reversals - they have very large volume and large effort but poor results - candles with long wicks and small bodies with little progress in price gain - such as a shooting star or hammer. These candles are usually a few candles after a CCI peak (200 level) and well ahead of a MACD crossover. Better probability of a reversal if CCI and MACD are on the same extreme side of the scale (top or bottom). I should mention understanding CCI and MACD divergence also. Nothing works 100% of the time though, and tops and bottoms are not always easy to pick so wait for confirmation of a reversal or be willing to try again if wrong (use stop loss), one time it took me 3 tries before I got it, so while MACD is the slowest confirmation, it may be the most conservative and safest. I should note that there are large time periods (lunch hour) where trades should be avoided as the indicators are also not accurate due to low volume. Springs and Upthrusts I cannot recommend any books on Upthrusts and Springs as I have read many and it comes down to what I wrote. I purchased David Weis' book Trades About to Happen which explains Wyckoff in a more modern way. There is enough info on the web that it is not necessary to buy a book about these patterns.

I would like to add my two cents. Trading e-mini futures like the ES and Russell (or Nasdaq and Dow) is simpler than following many stocks, and I believe in the end the commissions are lower. One problem is the minimum account balance necessary for swing trading, the daily margins are usually $500 USD (intraday trading) but the margin for an overnight contract is near $5K. An option would be to trade micro Gold (MGC) with a maintenance margin of $800. Another option would be to trade Nadex weekly binary options which do not require a large account. That takes care of what to trade. In regards to technical analysis, support and resistance, volume, candle patterns (specially reversal patterns). an oscillator and a trend follower indicator. Understand Upthrusts and Springs (Wyckoff). As some have mentioned, BEFORE you enter a trade, know why you are entering a trade and know what to do if things work out or don't, don't even go in if the reward is not larger than the risk, the larger the reward, the larger the stop loss has to be to give it room to work out (the chart will tell you, look at the previous low or high). Don't enter a trade if the stop loss is larger than what your account can handle, some say 1-3% of your account. Some say to not even move the stop loss until you are in profit.

Not exactly a book but a tool to help automate trades: Bloodhound by Shark Indicators - only runs on Ninja Trader, it does the programming for you, you chose your strategy, parameters, etc. Also look up mql4, mql5 Tons of info in there.

I was using a Pentium 4 computer running Windows XP Home, 4 screens, actually 5 at one point and it worked fine until my charts needed more time to refresh. I am now using a Quad Core with 4 Gb of RAM, Windows 7, it is not faster than my old Pentium but my charts have minimal lag now when I change to a different time frame. 4 screens for one instrument may not be necessary. You can split your screen to have a longer time frame chart on the top half and a shorter time frame on the lower half, expand and minimize screens as needed. Two screens would suffice (that's 4 charts), a third screen maybe for the DOM or trading dashboard. That computer from Wal-mart should be fine, you don't have to buy brand new, I prefer slightly used and save some money. I use 4 screens because I follow four different futures, one could spend all day waiting for a trade on the ES while things could be really moving in grains, metals, energies or currencies. Once I enter a trade, I concentrate on one futures instrument only and will not look at the other screens, maybe even turn them off. If the trade stalls, I start looking for other trades in the other screens.

Do you want to invest (buy and hold) or trade? The e-mini futures have many advantages over trading stocks. There are studies that show that buying and holding can be beat by a wide margin by trading the up and down price swings (if done correctly).

I switched from TradeStation to Daniels Trading, their platform is called dTPro which comes from OEC. Commissions are $5.90 but I think low commissions is not the only thing to go by. My broker does not charge me for the platform and I pay no fees for data feed. With TradeStation I had to pay for the platform (if not enough trades) and data fees to several exchanges, their commissions were much lower but if I called, I would get bounced around, my broker answers when I call. You are limited to only 10 charts with dTPro. You might want to look at the Russell 2000, there are many articles showing that it trends better. Crude Oil beats them both on potential profits though.

– double the efforts and keep digging in (?) No, insanity is expecting different results by doing the same thing over and over. I think you need time to rest, regroup and review. It would help to know what you are trading and where you are. I personally would not trade Forex although some have success with it, I trade e-mini futures which covers just about everything. You are the holy grail, you have to find a method that you believe in, even if it is as basic as a moving average crossover or a CCI cross (they both work, properly managed). Start with a clean slate, be prepared, don't rush, let the trade come to you. If you fail, don't beat yourself up, move on. The psychological baggage will take time to overcome but you can make it. Most of all stop trading with real money. Paper trade until you are consistent, analyze your mistakes, overcome bad habits. There are thousands of vendors out there selling systems and training, very few can be trusted in my book, most I think are just out to take your money. .....or quit it for good and forget it as a worst nightmare (?). There is nothing wrong with walking away for a while and quitting is not failure either. You may have to stop and work a while to build up your account, that is not failure. Success: Fall down 6 times, get up 7 times.

I would use daily charts and place positions based on break outs, since you can't be there, you would need to place your target and stop loss also (a bracket order), it may be possible to place orders for breakouts to the upside and downside (OCO?) but I have never done it.

I found these sites interesting, you could test your strategies in Wealth-Lab either by buying the software or having an account with Fidelity. Google:alphapowertrading, Wealth-Lab Pro / Wealth-Lab Developer It would not hurt to have a back up plan, to specialize in computer security while also learning programming in financial markets. My neighbor works in internet security for AT&T and tells me that there are not enough people who really know the stuff, you want to be able to find a job that pays well and will allow you the funds to trade while you learn.

What works for me is too look at longer time frames to see the previous tops and bottoms and trade such support and resistance ranges, as well as pullbacks along the way. I use Ichimoku clouds which gives a sort of moving support and resistance. The 200 MA is also quite often respected. Japanese candle patterns confirm turning points. This is nothing new. Also looking at different time frames, one can get lost inside the forest (small time frame charts) and not see the bigger picture. Avoid the lunch hour dull, usually between 11 to 1 CT. Give the trades enough room to move, too tight of a stop loss has gotten me out of profitable trades. Have a plan, know when to get out and why to get in.

A university BS or Masters degree can be of little value in this economy, some degrees are better than others but it comes down to experience, the more the better, so if you can, start working in something right away because your future depends on it. A degree in accounting is not a bad option, better than one in finance, information systems or economics and you can always freelance once you are a CPA. What you want is something that you can do for a while to live and fund a trading account for e-mini futures, which to me is better than trading Forex or anything out there. You want more than a minimum account size, preferably in the 7-10K range or more, with a small account you cannot keep an overnight position, with a larger account -one able to maintain the overnight margin- you could ride a futures contract for days or weeks and make a larger profit (in theory), assuming you made the right call. You also need to have enough in the account to buffer your losses. Also, since you will be working, day trading is most probably not possible so swing trading with preset stop loss and target would be the only option. You could trade options but I still think e-mini futures are better, I'm sure some people will disagree. A solid trading plan, discipline, enough funds and perseverance will help you succeed in trading, it won't happen quickly or easily, that should be your long term goal.

Steve, There are brokerages where you only need $500 for daily futures margin but that's cutting it close, you will need at least $2500 to open an account. You could try micro lot Forex at FXCM to get your feet wet. But paper trade until you are consistently profitable. You can start with as little as $50 to open an account but don't trade the account. I think the demo accounts are only good for 30 days but they may let you keep the demo account longer if you fund an account. Raul

I agree with your analysis. On the weekly chart you can see that that prices are rejecting a previous resistance level from August-September. Make sure you have a stop just in case. Price could be taking a rest before heading for 50 or 61.8 level but the pin bar and decreasing volume are bearish.

This comments are about Chart 1. I found the terminology in VSA needlessly confusing, so I use my own interpretation, I also use candles instead of bars. We have two bullish bars followed by a bearish bar, followed by an indecision bar that closes barely below the previous bar close, showing a low probability of the down move to continue. The next bar is bullish and strong but is followed by two Dojis (candlestick terminology), these bars have long tails which show that there is effort to pull the price down and little success to make the price go higher, a Doji usually signals the end of a move or that the end is near. Pin bar is a shooting star, great effort to push the price up but failed and prices closed even lower than previous two bars hinting that prices are going to fall and it does in the next two bars. Why did the down move not continue? I can only guess without seeing a bigger chart. It certainly exceeds a pullback to a .68 Fib level. A bigger picture might show a pivot point or a previous support/resistance level.

Thanks Tim, I am not going through a router. My power settings are not the problem, neither is my firewall, that is why I think it is OEC. Will open an account with Mirus Futures, I have not seen a disconnect yet. I am now connecting to OpenDNS and so far I only had one short disconnect.