Cory2679

I enjoy the musings of @JaffrayW on HFT: https://twitter.com/JaffrayW He also has a blog: http://www.transparentsimplicity.com If you aren't familiar with him, read the new Jack Schwager book, "Hedge Fund Market Wizards."

Harris has posted a short follow-up and FAQ to his original post: FAQ on Violence : Sam Harris The FAQ seems like it is a work-in-progress, so if anyone cares to be updated when more FAQ's have been added, simply follow him on twitter: https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg

This thread makes me think of this quote: In science it often happens that scientists say, 'You know that's a really good argument; my position is mistaken,' and then they actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn't happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion. [Carl Sagan, 1987 CSICOP keynote address] Just add "the gun control debate" to politics and religion.

Sam Harris just wrote in his blog about gun control. I'm a big fan of Harris so I was interested to read it. I was surprised to see it was more or less pro-gun (with limits), as he is generally liberal. His argument seems reasonable to me. He is certainly no idiot and no right-wing/NRA nut job. The Riddle of the Gun : Sam Harris

Please help...how do you embed a YouTube video in a post?? lol

NRA Press Conference NRA press conference about to begin. Might be an interesting watch.

I don't appreciate your condescending tone. The "assault weapons" we're talking abotu are not automatics. You don't think you could pop off 100 rounds in 4 minutes with a semi-auto handgun with magazines with a max capacity of 10 rounds and accomplish the same thing? 4 minutes, 10 magazines, that's 24 seconds per magazine. That is a leisurely pace. "Assault weapons ban" or no "assault weapons ban," I don't really care that much. I don't have a dog in the race. I was just making the point that I think such a ban would do absolutely nothing to cut back on such incidents. I think there's been too much hype and wasted energy around the specific gun he used, and I personally thought it was probably just a way for people to pat themselves on the back and/or score political points to right away ban "assault weapons," which in fact accomplishes nothing towards the goal of preventing mass shootings such as Newtown, IMHO.

I guess the plus side to that policy (if I understand it correctly) is that your service/subscription won't be interrupted or past-due if you neglect to update your CC info when the card expires. I wouldn't use such a strong word as "scam," personally.

I can't think of anything that would have saved more lives Friday than an armed teacher or principal (well trained and competant). The M-4 comment was silly...a 9mm would have worked fine. As for all the attention his assault rifle is getting...he didn't need it. He could have easily carried out his assault with a 9mm. He could have even done it fairly easily with a magazine capacity of just 10 rounds. It takes less than a few seconds to reload. Banning AR's would do absolutely nothing to prevent such events. Keep in mind that we are talking about semi-automatics in these cases. I'm not sure why they're getting so much attention. Probably because they look scary. Do people mistake these guns for automatics? I think people want to do something like ban AR's just to be able to feel like they've "done something." However, I am open minded and am aware that I don't know all there is to know on the subject. These are just some of my current ways of thinking. EDIT: And strictly speaking, we're not even talking about a bonafide assault rifle, here. An actual assault rifle must be capable of some sort of automatic fire. True AR's are already heavily regulated and are not the issue here.

Kind of a random note, but here it is anyway... I was reading an interview in Jack Schwager's new fourth Market Wizards book, "Hedge Fund Market Wizards," and the manager was answering a question about controlling risk...basically what he does is adjusts his position size based on the volatility in the market (in his case, using an EMA of the daily dollar range per contract) in an effort to keep his volatility relatively constant, regardless of the volatility of the market. I started thinking...we've also indirectly done that here, in a way, with position sizing and R-multiples...adjusting position size to the volatility of the market (or the size of the swings), resulting in a relatively constant volatility of our equity curve. Different paths to the same destination. I just thought it was interesting to think about so I thought I'd share. Here's the excerpt, for anyone interested: How do you control risk? The core of the risk management is evaluating the risk of each market based on an exponentially weighted moving average of the daily dollar range per contract. This risk management metric has kept our volatiltity relatively stable near the target level, even through periods of wide gyrations in the markets. One of the things I'm particularly proud of in terms of risk management is that through the chaos of 2008 and 2009 our volatility remained very near our target level of 12 percent annualized. I assume then that you were trading a much smaller number of contracts in each market per million dollars in 2008 than you normally do? Absolutely. As volatility increased, the number of contracts we were trading dropped precipitously.

I see 16. I marked it up in paint. I can't believe I allowed myself to get sucked into this. That's 5 minutes I'll never get back.

A technical trader had dinner one evening with a fundamental analyst. They went to one of those Chicago steak houses…you know, the ones with the big steaks and huge knives. The fundamental analyst is cutting his stake…a little too aggressively…and the steak knife flips out of his hand, twirls in the air, and they both watch as it lands on his shoe. The technical trader turns to the guy and says, “Why didn’t you move your foot?” The fundamental analyst looks back and says, “Well, I thought it was going back up.”

I just came across this intrade electoral map...pretty cool. Intrade currently has the odds heavily in Obama's favor. US Presidential Election 2012

Hello, Thales! I'm still around and still trading, believe it or not! I did take some time off since I last posted, though. I'm doing fairly well...the best I've ever done on a consistent basis. I mostly attribute that to focusing on only one market and just genuinely chilling out a bit. I lurk TL in general from time to time, but I read and study this thread often. I hope you're doing well! Cory

This post will be my last activity whatsoever on Traders Laboratory for a while (including private messages)...I'm leaving Saturday for a week-long trip to the beach. I need a vacation!

I'm out of here so I won't have a chance to update this...you can follow along on your computer at home if you'd like and see what happens. Here's where it is now...

Currently long the USD/JPY... I put this trade on yesterday, but I didn't post it right after entry like I normally do because I was pessimistic and was tired of posting loss after loss...of course the first one I don't post turns out to be a least a partial winner! PT1 filled, stop currently at break-even...

Currently short the GBP/USD... UPDATE: Stopped out for -0.99R. Gosh, I had an almost 2 month winning streak of all profitable weeks over May-June...what has happened?! I thought I was really getting somewhere back then...now I'm worse off than ever it seems. :doh: I do feel like cutting losses played a role...maybe I was managing my trades better overall. I know I was still cutting winners, though. The way I look at it is that if one knows what he's doing, one could take a 0.3R loss then take break-even on two trades that would have otherwise been losses, then over 3 losing trades one is down 0.3R...rather than 3R...10 times the loss. That's kind of what Thales used to do with cutting losses. I have not mastered that skill, though...I just cut everything. I think cutting losses is an important part of the equation...it's just I haven't managed to pull it off without cutting most of my winners...which is why, for know, I'm going to continue to let all of my trades run...to break the habit of cutting everything...then gradually start working on trying to cut losses where appropriate...the key is knowing when to hold them and when to fold them.

FINAL UPDATE: Stopped out. First trade: -0.89R, second trade: -0.98R.

UPDATE: Nice initial start, but it's trailing off...not very optimistic here. I'll be leaving shortly. I'm just going to let it play out on its own...full stop or full profit. I was kicking myself on that first trade...basically selling support...stupid...was just too eager to be in a trade......but I felt ok going into the second trade...just kind of a choppy day...

UPDATE: Stopped & reversed long...

Currently short the EUR/USD... I'm admittedly a little concerned about the steel-blue rectangle of potential support I've drawn, but the way I see it is that the first bounce was the reaction to the support, and now we're continuing lower to break the support with my entry...I'm counting on the downward momentum that began about a week ago to take us lower...

UPDATE 6: Once again I'd like to be tightening my stop to lock in some profits...right now the second half has the potential to retrace all the way back to entry and take me out for break-even... FINAL UPDATE: PT2 filled. Full profit on this trade. Overall result was +1.59R...mediocre at best...should have gotten a better entry...or pair. I think from now on I'll just mark my chart with dashed red lines for hypothetical moved stops, but not make a post each time...they'll just be visible on my next actual update.

UPDATE 3: Again, not doing it, but I'd like to be moving my stop tighter... NOTE: I just noticed this chart makes it look like my actual stop is at break-even...it isn't. I had drawn that line anticipating going to break-even once PT1 filled, but I hadn't actually moved it yet. I forgot to delete it before I posted. UPDATE 4: Had I actually been moving my stop, I'd have just been taken out for about +0.18R...(the spread popped wider for a moment on FXCM with the news and would have taken me out...as opposed to this Ninja chart where it didn't quite penetrate my level yet) UPDATE 5: PT1 filled...stop at break-even...

UPDATE 2: As price has gotten fairly close to PT1 now, I'd like to be moving my stop tighter, but again, I'm not actually doing it...