Cory2679

Currently short the EUR/USD... I'm a little weary of this short...price looks a little choppy, and it's following and impulsive upmove. Plus, it looks like the better opportunity might have been on the GBP/USD as it has already fallen a good bit. Oh well, we'll see what happens... UPDATE: Taken out for a full loss (-0.99R). I guess maybe I should have listened to my own concerns about this trade...or at least cut my loss short once I was in it. I need to learn when to hold them and when to fold them...of course much easier said than done.

No, I haven't read Van Tharp's book. Thanks for the recommendation!

POST-TRADE UPDATE: :doh:...at least I sat on my hands and stuck with the initial plan (although it is clear now that it wasn't a good one)...I was very tempted shortly after entry to squeeze my stop as it looked like it wasn't going anywhere at first, but I didn't...

UPDATE: Taken out for break-even (+0.03R)...

Currently short the EUR/USD...

I unfortunately have to head out now...I have to leave earlier than usual today...I'm certainly not patting myself on the back after seeing what price has done since I was taken out! I will try to digest, to the best of my ability, what has been said here before I come back tomorrow morning. Thanks.

Yes. Perhaps, with the idea of having to be in it to win it, it would have been worth risking the 1/3R of open profit to make make what could have been +2.85R for a full winner with my PT locations? Maybe this is your point?

FINAL UPDATE: Taken out for +0.36R.

No, of course I'm not sure...I'm never sure about anything. I'm just saying that to me, I thought I would probably get taken out for break-even if price broke where my stop now is, especially since the "break-even" stop was only 10.7 ticks above, so I'd rather lock in the ~1/3R. FWIW...if PT1 was eventually hit, my plan was to lift that stop and leave the stop at break-even for the second half and walk away...I have to leave here in about 45 minutes or so anyway.

I moved my stop down to one tick above the recent consolidation...11.7 ticks below entry...my stop was already at 1 tick below entry ("break-even")...I anticipated that price would probably take me out at break-even if it broke out of the consolidation to the upside, so I went ahead and moved my stop down to lock in ~1/3R if it did.

UPDATE 2: Stop moved down (11.7 ticks below entry)...

Currently short the EUR/USD... UPDATE: Stop moved down...

All right, I'm not sure how much I've really "pulled myself together," but I'm going to be back consistently trading and posting full-time on Monday. As a reminder...I won't be trading, posting, or probably even checking TL after NY...I'm currently not trading or even monitoring Tokyo, due to my schedule. I do, however, have the FXCM app on my phone so I can monitor/manage open positions after NY. I'm just going to be trading with a FXCM demo account, doing my best to treat the demo account as I would a live account. I'm well aware of the potential downsides to demo trading, but I've simply decided that I'm going to demo trade until I'm consistently profitable. That seems reasonable to me. I'm not going to bother with defining what qualifies as "consistently profitable" at this point...we'll know it when we see it! Have a good weekend!

Well, I called that dead wrong. There was probably ample opportunity to take break-even on the potential long I posted, but I definitely got my analysis wrong. Here's a current look at the EU...really hasn't "cleared" resistance yet, in my view...it still should be red. It's starting to swing widely, which if I'm not mistaken could indicate a weakening/end to the upmove. We're in an area now where I might be looking to get long (looking at potential support and the upward-sloping channel. That being the case, you may want to short...all in!

Perhaps not a terrible place for a long??

Thanks for the advice, but to me the problem with that is that I don't feel that I've earned that privilege until I've managed to find at least a trace of success with what I'm working on (trading). When I was in college, I remember a Goldman Sachs recruiter saying that the average work-week for new analysts is about 80 hours per week, but sometimes it'd be as many as 120. There's no excuse for me not to be doing the same thing. However, I don't put in 120 or 80 hour weeks with trading...for starters because I do have a job which I work nights and weekends, and secondly because I do "live my life" to some extent...during the evenings that I don't work, and during weekend evenings. I feel that my relationship with my girlfriend (now fiancé) would deteriorate if I didn't spend any time with her at all...and I do value that relationship. However, I feel guilty even about that...like I'm being lazy...I feel that I should be devoting that time to trading, but choose not to. It's a nice thought to simply "live life" and spend time with friends and family etc., and in the position you're in now you have that luxury, but I'd be willing to bet that you've put in your fair share of 100+ hour weeks over the years to get to where you are! I of course unfortunately do have the benefit of hindsight now, but I'll do my best... Price traded up to the next resistance level, but it just barely penetrated the upper threshold of the rectangle and backed off...I don't believe we'd yet "cleared" resistance enough to turn the red rectangle blue. One could have made a case for a short, seeing as we're at resistance, but I think by the time you posted the chart it may have been a little late. I would have maybe considered a short on the first hint of price being rejected when price approached and failed to break the 1.4476 high, but the big 123 I would have had some concern about...it was wide and a little choppy...after such a rally, unless there is an immediate and sharp sell-off, I'd hesitate to take that type of short. I think there was a case for a long, too...like I said, the "big" 123 at resistance after the sharp rally was somewhat weak to me...looking potentially like an "ABC" correction. I've placed two arrows where longs could have been attempted, on the first hint of price being rejected at those levels. The first didn't get much steam behind it, but there was a somewhat decent favorable excursion. That was about where it was when you posted your chart. The second was the moneymaker. In this very moment, if I was just getting on, I would be sitting on my hands and practicing the waiting game. I'd mostly be waiting on and anticipating price reaching the above level of resistance, at which point the lowest red rectangle would be turned blue...if not already. Price at the moment is struggling a little bit to make much of a move past the 1.4476 high. If one was anticipating price to reach the next level of resistance, I suppose one could look at this as an potential opportunity to jump in with a long and ride it to the next level of resistance. I personally don't see a great entry at the moment, though...there could be a sizable pull-back before the next burst...and of course, I could be wrong and price may plummet at this point.

Hey Thales, Yes, I'm still checking in...and thanks so much for the charts and commentary. I have a question...you'll often suggest to me focusing on longer timeframes, sticking to the sidelines when price is in no man's land or chop, not always being glued to the chart, not needing a trade every day, etc...my question is, what would you suggest I do while I'm waiting? I want to fill every moment of my trading day with something productive. Thanks, Cory

I think I'm going to take a little hiatus from TL...for maybe a week or so. I have to pull myself together. With the mess I've been posting this week, I'm just wasting people's time. I'm doing things that I know I shouldn't be doing. Once I consider myself to have pulled myself together, I'll resume posting. Thales, I want to express my immense appreciation for all the recent advice and posts, and tell you it's really nice to have you back. I had mentioned to a good friend some of the advice you'd been giving me lately and that you were back on TL, and she asked me if I had let you know how much I appreciate it...and I guess I really hadn't. Thank you to everyone else, too, who has contributed. There are a lot of generous people around TL.

Relfecting on the week so far: Monday: Essentially, I got into a decent GBP/USD short trade, got stupid/emotional/fearful and pulled out, only to see it decline into profitable territory. I stated that I wasn't going to post anymore about the trade and put it behind me, then proceeded to make another post about the trade...a clear sign that I was a little messed up emotionally. As an emotional reaction to this miss, I jumped in after the market had already substantially declined and was closing in on support, and took the 1R loss I deserved. After this emotional trade, I stated that I wouldn't be taking anymore trades that day due to my state of mind. I then went against my resolve not to take anymore trades and took another short, only to again take almost a full 1R loss, which I deserved. The trade looked ok initially, but then price became choppy and lacked impulse...and it was late in the day. The thing to do would have been to pull it, but instead, due to my emotional trainwreck state-of-mind, I kept the order in, hoping that the trade would prove profitable and make back everything I'd lost. Price then became choppy and overlappy, and took me out. Tuesday (Today): I got into what was probably an ok EUR/USD short trade...a short on the GBP/USD proved to have been the better trade to take... I eventually got a decent decline...about 1R...but I held on through the FOMC announcement, hoping it would be the boost I needed to get to big profits and make up for all of Monday's loss. Instead of hoping, I ought to have been thinking about preservation of capital and either moved my stop or pulled the trade...there was plenty of opportunity...I was even in profitable territory leading up to the announcement. So, basically, this week I've been an emotional wreck. I think this is because of 2 things...first, I went back live with my bigger size. Second, I was starting something "new," which psyched me out and messed me up. I think I basically haven't gotten the hang of this "new" way I'm trying to trade yet...starting with the 4H chart and using the 15M for entries only, basically. Today's trade probably wasn't the best...yes, price had retraced to the breakdown point and showed signs of rejection, but the way it retraced the breakdown point was choppy and wide. The GBP/USD, on the other hand, which would have been the better trade, looks much nicer. We had just had a nice double top/test and rejection of resistance, and price proceeded to decline to an anticipated level of support. It doesn't get any clearer/easier than that. I think I just need some more practice with this.

Well, shoot.........

Potential short the EUR/USD. Price has rallied back to the breakdown point and is showing signs of being rejected at that level. I'm betting on a decline back to support, where I'll take half off, then a break and decline to the next level of support, where I'll take the other half off.

Took practically a full loss. I adjusted the stop before the fill to reduce my risk zone a little bit, then moved my stop down slightly after it almost took me out. Once price became so choppy, I probably should have pulled my order...especially considering the time of day and that I was getting short after an impulsive upmove off of support... I got clobbered today. I really got out of control. It's pathetic. I don't know what's wrong with me. I should have listened to myself: I ended up down a grand total of -2.322R (-$58.06) today. No excuse. I traded poorly (even for me!) and had a bad day...it happens. I simply need to take a deep breath and move on and shake this off emotionally, while not forgetting the lessons and mistakes I've mentioned.

Looking at a potential short in this area on the EUR/USD. Price declined to an anticipated level of support, climbed to an anticipated level of resitance, now, with the overall trend downward, I'm betting on a decline from resistance back down and through support to the next level of anticipated support.

Got burned trying to jump back into the GBP/USD much further down from my first entry...basically chasing the trade...entering after price had already made a big move, and was closing in on support. Took a 1R loss...I deserved it. I'm so disappointed in myself. I think it'd probably be a good idea not to allow myself to take any more trades today. I think missing out on the great downmove that I was in and pulled for a 0.5R loss just messed me up emotionally. Same old story. I never learn anything.

Can't help myself...profit target 1 hit...