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4EverMaAT

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Posts posted by 4EverMaAT


  1. So what do you propose as an alternate?   You mention

    On 6/17/2021 at 6:14 PM, analyst75 said:

    I have no reason to believe in them and many reasons to believe that they are nothing more than what is stated about Elliott Waves. It is a THEORY. Personally, I want to trade based on facts and the reality of what I'm seeing. .......[snip]..............It is difficult for me to understand why anyone would want to trade based on a theory when they could trade based on what is plainly seen in the markets.

     

    So you care to share a synopsis of your theory (or theorem) and why it may be superior?


  2. It's been over a year?  Wow.   I've been gone a long time.

    But the update is for the better I guess.

     

    do you have a blog post detailing the reasons/advantages for the new look?

     


  3. I suppose that in an ideal world, what you want to do is operate that strategy on a vast scale with insane leverage, banking your 98% gains along the way, and then have someone bail you out when the one strong adverse move comes along . . .

     

    I'm pretty sure this approach has been used fairly recently, but I can't quite think where . . .

    :)

     

    BlueHorseshoe

     

    That would be ideal, but in the real world I'd probably just run the system on something like zulutrade or myfxbook and solicit followers until the strategy blows up :haha:

     

    But seriously...if people under leverage themselves you can just add to your positions forever and enjoy a 100% win strategy. However it will probably make less money than a real edge with a small initial risk using leverage in your positions. The original posters wants to be right and not rich.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK

     

    The key to using cost averaging and 2x[+] martingale is to have reasonable limits to work within the equity stops and not over optimize the take profit. That is the only way for the speculator on the sell side to get in and out [and back in] timely. If you keep going for the big win on each tradecycle (basket), you will eventually hit stop on a larger trend; you can't have too many of those. Take the smaller [tiny] wins as the market retraces, but do so consistently.

     

    These strategies are only survivable if you are too big to fail.
    Those people are likely trading with too much risk.

    It is rare that people who implement martingale use complete mechanical systems for the entry detection, entry and exits, which is indeed quite reckless. In addition, they are implementing it in an "all or nothing" approach. How can you be surprised if the "or nothing" comes up at some point?


  4. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    If we can get 5 entries by the end of this week we can get one going for December.

     

    Where is the contest signup link?


  5. A very good and profitable auto-trading broker, I would recommend is zulutrade - very profitable for followers are protected from all adverse market conditions and of course, high dd from risky trading.,

    check it out on demo - it speaks for itself. ;)

     

    The main challenge with zulutrade is that most 'investors' sort by highest roi. Many of the traders trade to make their stats look good long enough to entice investors. Then finally the blowup happens. The investor has no idea what happened. Even with some kind of equity stop loss, you are still trying to figure out if you should continue with the same signal or just find a new signal.

     

    What is even worse is that the investor may be copying several signals at once, trying to "diversify". But without an understanding of the underlying strategy used in EACH signal, how can you even begin to manage the risk? I like the concept of zulutrade, but unfortunately they are mainly for show. Many blind-leading-the-blind there.

     

    I've seen situations where the zulutrade bridge went offline with mt4. I do understand that MQ and ZT had a falling out. But social copy bridges do have some serious flaws and the bridge providers rarely take it seriously enough. Once they have their commissions (which they get on every trade), they tend to ignore any technological deficiencies unless they are major. The commission model also needs work, where at least myfxbook's autotrade only pays out on profitable trades. The current model encourages signal providers to churn out as many trades as possible, not necessarily profitable.

     

    I was speaking to a funds manager about social networks, and he admitted that licensed fund managers and others with serious hedge funds do not use these services; way too much counterpary risk.


  6. Onesmith, we've all been put down and rode over on this site and potentially done it to others, knowingly or not. Let it go, forget about it and become an accepted part of this community by doing so. The friendship and comradery found here far outweighs the bad and if you show yourself to be mature in this matter it'll only pay you back. All the best

     

    To assist in letting go, I recommend The 5 Levels of Attatchment: Toltec Wisdom for a Modern World by Don Miguel Ruiz Jr. It was just as good as The Four Agreements by his father.


  7. Can someone tell me if trading gold is a good idea?

     

    Is swimming a good idea?

     

    All derivative contracts follow the same basic buy/sell principle of a market. The difference is liquidity and volatility of the contract; both are affected by various things. But it is the movement in price we are looking to speculate on.

     

    now lets see if I can make up for lost time on this contest.


  8. VPS service are really not that effective. Is there an alternate for this? vbulletin-smile.gif

     

    Buying a dedicated server or hosting your own server near the broker's trading server.

     

    But seriously, can you explain why a quality VPS service is not adequate.

     

    HFT is probably discouraged on their retail platforms. you would have to go it alone if you desire sub-millisecond HFT.


  9. FWIW -

    the last few weeks i have spoken to a couple of people who have recently retired from some of the larger investment banks - (and when i say retired i mean that - they have not been retrenched - they just have enough money to walk away....aged 40-50 yrs) they worked in the trading and derivatives side of their business. They all love the markets, will continue to trade and invest.....

     

    All of them talked about various things and the one thing that struck me that they all focused on was the question - how do i get 12-15% on their money without a lot of leverage.

    They are happy to use it and know when its appropriate....but their leverage numbers are along the lines of 2 to 4 times, occasionally ten times when well hedged.

     

    When I asked them if they are interested in higher leverage with risk controls etc; they all laughed and said even if you get it right a lot its the excessive leverage that will get you in the end.

    The other thing they were all very aware of is the key thing is to avoid over trading.

     

    Different mindsets of course....but maybe there is something in that for all of us :)

     

    - 12-15% per week, month, quarter, year?

    - Did these retirees mention the size of the capital they were trading?

     

    1:10 leverage with $1-10 mil is probably a different expectation than 1:10 leverage with $1-10k.

     

    The institutional mindset on leverage does tend to be much more conservative than the retail side. I suspect the large part is the starting capital. Another part is how retail sales reps advertise vs how institutional traders are recruited.


  10. That is amazing! Did this happened on certain pairs only?? I did not notice that in my account.

     

    Across two separate demo accounts, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and EURAUD. Based on this, I concluded with customer service that these fake ticks were occurring across multiple instruments. The Oanda representative acknowledged several other people reported the same incident.

     

    Customer service claims the problem has been fixed. We will see. I wonder if they can fix the trade prices. They probably aren't too concerned as it is a demo account.


  11. Actually, I doubled my equity as well. and another account with oanda mysteriously trippled the equity.

     

    I did some research and found out that there were some fake ticks that caused sell orders to be closed out at 0.00000 price. So the profit will be very large on those trades where the fake tick occurred. Oanda customer service is aware of the issue and will advise when it is fixed.


  12. The main challenge with the approach of using multiple indicators is that the trader lacks the basic understand of exactly what the indicator is supposed to indicate (a mathmatical or numerical measurement of [whatever] Even with this knowledge, it is even more difficult to trade because the trader does not have the confidence to enter trades due to the lack of consistency in the indicator's signal. In this case, the trader is using the indicator as a prediction tool, and is unlikely to wrap around any type of money management to control the risk, let alone understand the entry and exit process.

     

    Is it a consistent set of entries and exits? Or does it change with each setup? Are all the exceptions known before entering? These are just some of the more important aspects of real trading to consider. Multiple indicators usually add to the confusion of predicting market direction, not remove it.


  13. Anyone who treats trading as a business would want to multiply their efforts as quickly as possible. There is no other liquid business in the world that allows the amount of leverage that stocks/futures/forex/etc derivatives offer. So with a successful trading strategy, I wouldn't see a reason NOT to use the extra buying power to scale as much as the mechanical limits allow.

     

    Sure you can just run one restaurant all the time. But why not have two restaurants? 4? 10? etc if you could afford it?


  14. Averaging down + too much leverage = recipe for disaster

     

     

    I do ok for a while with stops in place and reasonable position sizes .... and then that little red guy on my shoulder starts whispering in my ear: "what a pathetic return, you can do better than that, INCREASE POSITION SIZE!!!" ..... and somehow I can't resist :(

     

    the best thing to do is find a smaller lot size series that works out well for you; then you can simply increase the lot size across the board. This is more systematic and requires testing.

     

    You don't just increase the lot size based on fear/greed alone.


  15. That's about $7.50-8 USD per round turn trade per 100,000 units of currency traded (1.00 standard lot size). Not terrible, but you could request a discount as your volume increases.

     

    A broker dealer isn't necessarily a bad thing; as long as they are getting you filled in a Straight-Through Processing (STP) fashion, you should be fine.

     

    What is the name of your broker btw?


  16. I'm not sure you understand what I'm saying, so you appear to be agreeing with the wrong thing.

     

    I don't know that I really want to get into this here, but, for the moment, I'll say this much. While you acknowledge fear, you also circumvent it, just as nearly everyone else does, including psychologists, and begin talking about risk (not unlike those who pooh-pooh simtrading because there's no "risk"). But it's not about risk; it's about fear. And the fear stems from a thorough lack of knowledge of what motivates price movement. Since the failing trader has no understanding of this (and, often, the individual who's trying to help him), he is forever seeking someone to follow, some method to use, some indicator to plot, even to the extent of using some mechanical and/or automated system. But, again, all this does is circumvent the central problem, a brace on a broken leg, morphine against the cancer. This is not unlike the manager who must deal with employees but has absolutely no idea how to do so, believing that taking a workshop or reading The One-Minute Manager will solve his problems. But they don't, because skills are not the problem, any more than "patience" and "discipline" are the central problems for the failing trader.

     

    My understanding of the markets is mainly that there are buyers and sellers constantly coming together to agree on a price. The various market participants vote with their feet (hard cash) their purchasing decisions at all times of the day while the market is open. The change in price simply represents a change in agreement. This change in price can be measured objectively.

     

    I do agree that the loser trader is in a near perpetual state of trying to find that which can never be lost. And the classic "blind leading the blind" scenario perpetuates the losing, until the adequate discontent sets in which causes the loser to look more honestly at the situation, including any fears that are in the way.

     

    .....

    Magee addressed this back in the forties. There may have been others before him, but so little of that survives, it's not always easy to trace these threads. It's tempting to suggest that systems and indicators have only made the problem worse because they hold the promise of enabling the trader to avoid addressing his fears for the foreseeable future. But of course they don't. Fear is far more central, and has been lurking in the shadows for millenia.

     

    Your quote about religion is apt, but it somewhat misses the mark. Fearful traders do approach trading in much the same way as the religious approach religion, the latter being motivated by a fear of death. There are rituals to perform, actions to be repeated, truths to be denied. In both cases, we "run" from that which we ought to embrace.

     

    Well said. It is difficult to put the truth into words. Using one set of symbols to describe another set of symbols that we see. But symbols aren't so bad when they are used as a tool for communication :helloooo: The reason why I advocate systems is because of the ability to put repetition in action. Ramit Sethi put it this way in his Big Wins Manifesto:

     

    Next time you hear the same old tired advice of keeping a budget, or cutting back on $2 lattes [or any other method/system that is not producing desired results], ask yourself: Has that really worked for the millions of people who’ve tried it? Are they really not “trying hard enough”? Or is there perhaps a systemic problem urging people to waste their limited cognition on near-meaningless tasks with little reward…and should we instead focus them on high-leverage areas that will result in massive payoffs?

     

    Following exact steps to produce a certain concrete result is transparent and measurable. Then the user can focus on the fun stuff (exploring the possibilities of the system), rather than being bogged down with repetitive tasks. We only have so much attention and so it should be focused on measurable results, not chasing some exotic indicator. You hinted earlier about how a basic understanding of market price action is needed, but rarely if ever actually sought after.

     

    "We pick our teachers and we get what we want" (Jed McKenna). So perhaps the student has implemented a trading method/system 100% to the best of their ability and have not received the results they are looking for. Wouldn't any honest seeker would go through the steps of the system to see where the problem lies? Maybe only minor adjustments need to be made like position sizing. Maybe the whole system needs to be tossed out or replaced for a new system that can give you the reproducible results you desire.

     

    But there is only one way to find out. And it doesn't take years and years of stalling; its mostly a matter of having the courage to insist on those reproducible results. The same way you would insist on it for a car, boat, airplane, blender, or other mechanical systems you are surrounded by and/or use nearly everyday. Death awareness can be life affirming, and it doesn't necessarily require a major accident. Large drawdowns or "blown accounts" would be the death equivalent to losing it all or significant enough amount for you to begin the process of more objective system/self analysis. One of the most interesting aspects of death awareness was really the fear of being alive.


  17. .......

     

    Rande, you mention one them with the idea that the mind you bring to trading is not the ideal traders mind....but I am thinking its not then about mental development, self development etc; but more a simple acceptance that - we have little control over things.

    Maybe traders need to revert rather than grow.....or this has more to do with Zdos thoughts on flow....creativity and letting go of control.

    .........

    ..........

    Now many might disagree with this and of course its all up for discussion and maybe i am not explaining myself well, or maybe this germ of an idea that has been brewing in my mind will be washed away by the sands of time....but i will give a few examples of what i am trying to explain in a question type format and to see if people relate or dont relate.....

     

    Q: why is it that we are desperate to get into a trade and once in we are desperate to get out?

    Q: why is it we think that once in the markets the markets will respond to our wills, plans, hopes and what if scenarios?

    Q: why is it people move stops around and second guess their original trades (based on plans and tests and reviews) when the market does not care about their individual trade, strategy, circumstances, hopes, stops or take profits.

    Q: why is it people think the market will bounce off a level but then worry that it wont once they have a trade on?

     

    The list can go on.....

     

    A lot of this it this seems hard wired into our brains - our idea of control. We think we control our environment. e think we can control many things....but in the market we dont.....

    no matter how good the plan, the sales pitch, the training, the review, the manufacturing process, the customer base, the mentoring process.....what ever process we have to build success in trading or elsewhere.....

    once you have a trade in the market you have to completely surrender to the market.

     

    Yes, you can monitor it, review it, move stops based on the plan and testing, exit, re-enter.....but these dont give you control over the market. They only control your individual trade risk in the market.

    IMHO this goes deeper than just accepting uncertainties in an uncertain world or market.

     

    Maybe just maybe, those traders who do the planning, take responsibility and review etc, if they are not doing it with a mindset that is based on this acceptance, then they are doing it from a mindset that all this planning will let them be in control --- and this is when the self sabotage occurs.

    They think that after all their hard work they are in control when in fact they have not really accepted they are not.

     

    Exceptional post, Siuya. You hit the nail on the head (tip of the hat to Maslow).

     

    The class of '09 is considerably different from the class of '03 and even more so from the class of '98. The last was all about momentum, but this group is all about engineers and mathematicians and statisticians and algorithms and, even more than ever, indicators. They appear to believe that the market is not only something to be wrestled to the ground but something that can be wrestled to the ground. And pinned there. Until it submits.

    .......

     

    I also agree. We never think about controlling everything when we drive a car, fly a plane, or ride a boat. We only focus on the 1/2 that we do have control over (avoiding collision, understanding lift, staying afloat, etc). BUT....

     

    If you have a fear of heights, no amount of safety records or even personal assurances from the pilot can force you into that aircraft.

    If you have a fear of water, no amount of proof of adequate flotation from the captain himself+ safety rafts will get you to go on that boat and sail.

     

    If you have a fear of losing money, no amount of proof that a complete [transparent] trading system has the potential to prevent losses and simultaneously increase equity will allow you to fund your trading account, take the risk, and follow through 100% on the system. .

     

    The irony of it is that the clients Randy was referring to in the OP were business minded people for the most part who enjoyed success in other business ventures. So one would at least assume that they have some basic understanding about taking risks and that losses may be necessary in order to achieve the larger goal. I think it is a combination of the subtle "get rich quick / mlm" mindset that many new traders or system followers come in with, combined with the masked fear of losing.

     

    I think that the article "Trading as a Religion" sums it up nicely:

     

    "I have never witnessed another area of human activities which would be inhabited by such an enormous number of superstitious laymen steeped in prejudice. Since they desperately lack knowledge about what they are doing, they tend to stick to whatever seems attractive to them, regardless of how adequate it is. Thus they repeat similar actions once and again, regardless of the result. I know a medium size fund which lost about 50% of its assets this year, and still they confess the same religion: we don’t believe in systematic trading, only human eye can spot the chance, etc., etc. However this religious approach can be very beneficial for a smart trader who understands the behaviour of certain groups of market participants and is able to exploit them."

     

    It's good to see that we are acknowledging this problem and (hopefully) taking concrete steps to overcome it. I've always recommended practicing "The Four Agreements" to at least begin the process of seeing things (including the market) for as they really are, and not necessarily force our opinion on it. Too bad fear seems to grip people in very powerful ways, but the unlearning process always starts with "what do you really want"?


  18. The whole point of implementing systems, is to focus the mind only on those inputs which the system is designed to give a certain output, and ignore the rest.

     

    With a complete trading system, the confidence to trade it consistently will come because you observe over numerous repetitions that the system is profitable. Most traders do not have a complete trading system. Instead, some aspect of it is left up to the trader (discretion) after the trade[cycle] has begun. This can result in panic and either over-leveraging or errors in following the system.

     

    edit: i agree about the avoiding losses thing. Just like if you have a fear of heights, no amount of safety records and numerous other logical arguments justifying how safe it is to fly will get you to board an aircraft. So if you have a fear of losing money, no amount of logic describing a complete trading system will enable you to trade that system consistently. Your fear will find a way to change the rules to justify your fear and self-sabotage. It's kind of amazing how the ego (and more specifically the parasite) works to direct the mind.

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