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4EverMaAT
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Posts posted by 4EverMaAT
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It's open for debate. Chime in folks for what you would like...5% Drawdown rule or not.
BTW good to see you again.
NOT please.
for the drawdown rule. It would be better to introduce some type of technique that would rate the volatility of the % gains/lost, such as a risk-adjusted rate of return. It took the standard deviation of the change in account balance from day to day and divided that into the gross rate of return to give a more realistic idea of risk to reward rate of return.It still allowed people to trade however they wanted, but gives equal footing to the aggressive and conservative trading strategies.
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I see some confusing conflicts with the video you presented:
1) Drawing Fibonacci Lines top and bottom are subjective the way you present it (and the way most people present it). It is all relative which "top" or which "bottom" you use.
2) It is a lagging indicator when done this way, because you must wait for a retracement has taken place before making any trading decisions.
3) the pin bar that you describe is relative to the timeframe and broker that you are using. It appeared you were using 4 hr timeframe. But what if you were using 1 hr? Or 4 hr timeframe, but a different broker?
4) You are using moving averages (lagging) as an additional filter. Why? Isn't the properly drawn fibonacci enough.
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If the OP was trying to say (to some degree) that you cannot know everything there is to know about the market with words, with symbols, then I concur. The greatest inspirations usually come from unknowing and unlearning what you observe does not work. Then when you see something that does work, you 'know' it works from experience, not just because someone said so.
It is difficult to follow or observe something abstract. You would need to develop or follow concrete steps, preferably a system that has a continuous cycle of the same core steps to test the validity of the steps. But when the OP makes a statement like
"...So, what does a trader who claims to have learned how to trade really mean? Really its not a objective measure but a measure ones own self confidence. A measure of how competent they feel and capable.
Let me back up and also say that I have produced materials on developing specific types of skills that have helped me. There are specific types of skills that one can develop, and that can take off years from the learning process..."
What are these objective skills or steps that the OP refers to?
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Yep, this is basic if you want to last in the business. If you have an edge, take the trades...and yes (again) if you aren't mentally "up to it", either suck it up or get a new job....
I guess the final question for me is why does Predictor post this stuff? (I'm on ignore so I can use his handle, lol)
If you didn't know this stuff, how can you suggest that you're qualified to teach people...?
Oh well, it was a very nice day....hope everyone had a good one..
Good luck
............and finally (to repeat) if you have a significant edge, and you don't take the trades...you're wasting your money....because you are introducing a randomizing element into your overall results.
I realize I am critical of the guy (the OP) but really shouldn't you know this if you are claiming professional status and offering to teach folks....?
At least he is taking some action and doing his best. That does count for something.
Such is the reality of the trading business. As one of the original turtles once said [paraphrasing]: "...Those of us who actually trade for a living know the names of many "famous traders" who are famous as "traders," but that don't make money as traders ....Most of these so-called 'experts' can't trade and don't trade the systems that they [tell others about]...." I read many of these recent articles and wonder: "Ok, so what exactly was your point?" or more specifically "How do I apply this [non-sense] in an actual trading situation?" I guess I'm one of those people who just don't "get it".
I was just recently watching magic's greatest secrets finally revealed. Don't underestimate the power of illusion. The majority of tricks they showed had nothing to do with camera tricks, but classic misdirection of the person's attention or hidden devices/compartments in a clever arrangement.
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Hi Suby,Regardless to what a discretionary trader use...discretionary trading can't be tested via some computer code. The fact is that discretionary traders use variables that can't be tested such as market experience, trading experience, emotions, discipline or lack of discipline, interpretations or perceptions along with "some" objective rules.
Yet, it never fails that someone in the academia or none believer that meets a profitable discretionary trader will only want to test (prove) the traders profitability via whatever rules they can find while ignoring the fact that trader is profitable for additional reasons that can't be tested via a code. Therefore, if you want to be a discretionary trader that uses "some" objective rules...you're obviously going to use them with discretion. Thus, the fact will always remain that you determine if/when to take a trade based upon those other variables (e.g. trading experience, bias, emotions and so on) when you get a trade signal.
EBTA rejects discretionary traders because discretionary traders use a subjective approach to using TA as in "I decide if I want to trade that valid trade signal based upon whatever reason that's important to me". Further, you need to decide if you want to be a system trader or a discretionary trader...then use whatever you need to be profitable while letting the academia folks debate the issue why you're profitable.
Just remember, a profitable discretionary trader that uses TA...that trader has other chapters in their book that's arguably more important than the chapter called TA. Simply, you need to decide if you're going to be the most important factor in your trading or if your TA is going to be the most important factor in your trading.
How can a Discretionary Trader apply systems/systems provided in the book "Evidence Based Technical Analysis?
You do so by using discretion based upon your market experience, trading experience, market context, discipline or lack of discpline and many other things that's not TA to determine if/when you want to take the trade or not when a trade signal appears.
continue reading the book.
A properly coded system is always discretionary in nature. But let's make a clearer distinction here. The if-then rules are always followed in the sequence that the programmer has laid them out. How do you determine the rules? Through deduction, observation, and making choices based on how you think (or feel) the market price will go. And since the price for financial instruments is 100% linear (it can only increase or decrease in a sequential number value), and the values (OHLC, volume, tick, shares, etc) are all recorded electronically, quantification can be 100%. The various if-then rules to account for various market conditions are a result of the discretion picked up over a series of repetitions. You may have unlimited if-then statements (as many as you can keep track of).
Discretion can be quantified as long as a definite choice is made as a result of [whatever event triggered choice]. Now whether or not this discretion can be coded partially depends on the skill of the programmer and limitations of the trading package.
The distinction of what is discretionary in the negative case are arbitrary rules that are not applied consistently given the same set of "if" circumstances.
What I found is that the discretionary trader (same circumstances, arbitrary application of rules) are the most difficult to follow along to determine how to duplicate their success. And the vendor or trader certainly could not teach arbitrary discretion with any accuracy. But this is excellent for some vendors particularly. Why? Because at any time the rules are not working, the vendor can easily say "yeah...you see you should have bought instead of sold because my [mystical discretion rule] said so" Of course this is a charlatan's wet dream, because they can fleece a lot of new traders into buying their *great returns system* and then have a ready, "plausible" excuse when the system does not produce the stated results.
Of course there will be the discretionary trader (same rules somewhat arbitrarily applied) who can be profitable. You can be consistent enough to make money...even good money. Just like you can have a small bakery shop and be profitable baking cookies all day long. You don't have to be exact with your methods, just good enough to keep the shop open with some extra profit for yourself. There's no right or wrong with this approach if it is your preference. If you want any chance at growing (scaling) or passing on your success to someone else, you will need an exact process to pass on to your successor or to open a new store and duplicate your success. I actually think the discretionary trader does have a set of core rules that it follows, but certain parts may be difficult to put into words.
The same is true if you want a chance at watching multiple markets at the same time. You'd have to employ a large degree of automation, which can only be achieved with clearly defined rules. I am not referring to a black box system, where an inflexible, one-size-fits-many approach is assumed. But at a minimum a grey-box system where settings can be adjusted and if you own the system fully, could be modified at the source code level to test different scenarios.
Systems approach actually takes discretionary trading to a whole new level in your ability to forward test new rules for feasibility. If you've ever driven a car, flown on an airplane, used a cell phone, used the internet, or a laptop (computer), you are already familiar with the huge amount of leverage that automation can give to the end user.
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It's funny how the most actively traded forex and futures financial products are very highly leveraged. The eurodollar futures contract boasts between 1:1000 - 1:5000 depending on the broker you use and their day trading margin. Non-USA/JPY retail forex brokers typically have anywhere between 1:200 to 1:1000 leverage on offer for most of their currency pairs, and their minimum lot sizes can go down to 10 units of the base currency (although 100 or 1000 units minimum is more common minimum for some accounts).
The leverage only is appropriate for determining how many positions per tick or per pip that the account can trade before being unable to trade anymore. This is best done mathematically using a spreadsheet designed for this purpose. This is how you can determine with 100% objectivity how much of an actual pip/tick range in market movement you can handle from initial entry before blowing up your account.
One person said it best on a different forum: if you cannot sleep at night with the amount of open positions you have, then you are over-leveraged. It can be a big temptation to overuse leverage, when unaware of the true power of position sizing. One advantage about using the spreadsheet is that you can determine your level of aggression and then copy the lot sizes into your system and forward test different levels to paint a clearer picture of the difference between aggression and recklessness.
The idea of not using more that 1:10 leverage is a rehash of the "risk no more than x% per trade" idea. Neither of these abstract-only method address the strategy being used for entries. They also do not address pip or tick value price movement relative to each (or total) position size. Luckily for most traders, price is linear and all these relevant events: pip/tick value, position size, and position value per pip/tick can be calculated precisely from entry to exit (equity stop loss or take profit). Use the spreadsheet or something similar to determine these precise values. It is true that we cannot predict the exact range of price travel all the time. So shouldn't the goal be to focus our attention almost exclusively on the aspects we have control over in the most objective manner possible?
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i'm also interested to know why a stock would be restricted like this? Not too familiar with these instruments.
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The contest that Mystic Forex ran back in March-April 2011 was based on contestants joining the competition by entering their a/c number into the contest registered by Mystic Forex. It was done this way to give Mystic access to the trades and balances, in order to publish regular figures and a leader-board, and ultimately to determine the winner.The Oanda a/c will be a demo account, linked under Mystic Forex's supervision / sub/account, I believe.
Go back to the beginning of this thread and read posts #27 -to - # 30. That will explain a lot of it. Keep reading and you will see how it played out. Once you have a demo account with Oanda, you can go to the "Contests" section, and register with the "Mystic Forex" group - at least that's how is worked last year, and should be the same this time.
To answer your question more fully - so far Oanda is the only place we have operated.
Do you know of any other platforms we can co-ordinate the trades closely enough to manage the contest? Many traders may have tried MT4 or some of the others, but Oanda seems purpose-built for this.
Mt4 contests are run all the time on myfxbook. I think mt4i.com has ability to run your own contests if you do not have your own management software. Oanda's mt4 bridge is lousy and I cannot afford news time lockdowns (brief freezes are ok).
I was looking for mt4, so not sure if I can join this contest yet.
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Is this only for oanda?
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Hi RumplestilskinsMore questions
So if the market is falling and you have selected to only trade long, you walk away?
Please explain how a BLACK SWAN could work in my favour.
kind regards
bobc
I'm assuming that a "black swan" is a fast moving market in a single direction. Well, eventually there will be a pullback and you have the opportunity to get out at a smaller loss, breakeven, or profit. The market cannot go in a single direction all the time. Even during a news announcement, a 23.6-38.2% minimum pullback from the top is virtually guaranteed. If not immediately, shortly afterwards.
You do have "tsunamis", but they are extremely rare and you can usually 'detect' them coming and minimize the loss.
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......Is there a scientific reason why you can only trade in one direction?:question:
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While only the rumpled one can answer questions about his own trading methodology, once you pick a direction, you must see the signal through until you have completed (either hit expected profit or loss). If you change directions mid-trade, then you cannot fully validate how the original signal would have performed.
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Normally these tricks only happen in market-maker type of situations [forex--although it is rare to see this now as there are lots of tools to readily determine trad. Regulated environments traded on an exchange I didn't know that could happen. Aren't these ETF/Stocks traded on or through an exchange or are these off-exchange transactions?
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So what exactly does a trader do with these magical boxes? There's no specifics here as to how the boxes (a user-defined trading range?) will work to the trader's benefit.
"By drawing the boxes, we are able to predict where price might head to on the next box after the breakout." I understand the technical aspect here (draw the box). I'm completely lost as to how it would help the trader manage profitable entry/exit. Especially since you are "lagging" the drawing of the box (drawing the box after the fact). Similar to how people draw trend lines AFTER the trend has occurred :doh:.
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What's so hard about trading without a chart? Charts only tell you what a particular market did in hindsight. They're just another indicator. Who needs 'em.When I fly I never use instruments. Pilots should already know if they are airborne or still on the runway. Who needs a compass when you have the sun? Maps and GPS are for sissies. If you don't know where the heck you are, what business do you have trying to go anywhere?
Traders always get bogged down with useless stuff like charts and other such nonsense. Hillary Clinton never looked a chart and she never lost a trade in cattle futures. You can't be a pansy all your life. Toss those charts and trade macho. A blindfold would be a nice touch, too.
I know somebody who uses automated strategy and no chart at all. The person who I know, uses Excel that tells him when to enter and exit.Charts are just visual representations of historical and incoming price feed.....number series of data. So all of those neat price patterns can be calculated in excel with the right amount of programming knowledge. A chart is a much faster reference, where you could "see" a high or low from a particular day much quicker than you could on a bland spreadsheet. You can have functions flag certain conditions (like highest high/low for a day) in a spreadsheet also.
Technically any platform that could be populated with a large volume of individual number series (such as a spreadsheet, database, XML, HTML5, etc, etc) could be used to facilitate trading. Of course it needs some level of programming ability to automate the processing of the ticks, place orders, etc.
But it is good to have a platform that is dedicated to the task with ready-made drawing tools, robust programming language and support from other traders.
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.......Say all you want about America, but we have the best variety of women anywhere.
I think once you've passed through Thailand or Columbia, you might change your mind. But I'm thinking more accessibility vs variety.
ahhh Porter.....I have to love the free market capitalists who think that the government is what causes them to have all these problems and why its not worth setting up a business.
These are the same people who then generally expect someone to pay for the roads and transport for their products, supply a steady form of policing so that their business is not looted, and ensure that people dont dump toxic waste in their water supply......
....and correct me if I am wrong. American seems to have done pretty well from the mix of government intervention into their economy. Did he complain when the US subsidized industries to help them get going, or when farmers needed to survive help stay on the land. Is he up in arms about the fact that many farmers still get subsidies when they are not needed.
Isn't America the land where the very rich pay less tax than the secretaries
If that is truly what he believes - then he should either a....get a job and let somone else pay him, or b....join the government.
(dont worry I hate paying taxes as well, but i also understand that someone has to pay for things.....maybe he should focus his attention on wastage, unnecessary bureaucratic and inefficient systems - otherwise he is just another Occupy Wall street hippy in suit)
The Westernized countries have the infrastructure for serious and scalable business. But the emerging economies have the simpler, stress-free lifestyle. The wise people pick the best of both worlds whenever possible.
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Flip a few thousand ES contracts back and forth all day? Sure, why not? Anybody want to put up $20,000,000? I'd be happy to demonstrate. LOL..Seriously, it's easy to see that the liquidity is there. If that is the goal for a trader TRADING HIS OWN MONEY, the puzzle to solve is how to get to that many contracts without losing one's head. It is not as straightforward as continually adding contracts as soon as more margin becomes available.
Of all the people who think it's no big deal scaling up to thousands of contracts, I'm wondering how many of them have ever lost $100,000+ of THEIR OWN MONEY trading in a day? How many have lost $500K of THEIR OWN MONEY in 2 weeks? It's an interesting experience. I highly recommend it to any trader with easy dreams of scaling up big starting with a 1-lot. Just be careful who you share the experience with. A girlfriend wearing an engagement ring that "only" cost $15,000 may have a difficult time understanding.
Oh and don't be surprised if you get assigned a collection agent and a field agent from the state tax department looking into your prior years' income. I realized I had made it out of the Piker League when a field agent came knocking on my door unannounced.
It's as easy as moving the decimal point over. Check out these recent returns from recent forex contest:
Trading Championship May 2012 | Myfxbook
and
http://www.trading-challenge.com/pdf/Ranking.pdf
I like the Varengold contest a bit better because it just wasn't about the "highest equity wins" like most contests. They measured risk-adjusted returns, which is why 3rd place winner only had 20% total gain That doesn't stop most people from using "all in" type of strategies to get ahead. A demo account, but good enough to see the possibilities. And varengold even allows the winners to trade real money afterwards.
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Unless they are trading iliquid instruments then I am farily dubious about this; there are countless short term market participants who trade with high frequency on a scale that dwarfs anything that could be achieved with a million dollar account. There are very few limits on scale-ability in liquid markets nowadays - you could flip a few thousand ES contracts back and forth all day with no problems (someone please correct me if I am wrong about this).Of course, if the people you're referring to are, say, market makers in single stocks, then I understand what you're saying.
BlueHorseshoe.
EuroDollar (not confuse with Euro FX) has contract size of USD $1million and aggregate daily volume of about 2 million contracts. That's $1,000,000 x 2,000,000 contract daily volume, or $2,000,000,000,000 [2 trillion] worth of daily volume:wtf:
Ten year US treasury notes are #2 (i think) in volume * contract size.
The S&P is arguably the 3rd and can move up/down in rank depending on the value of the underlying index. I'm probably overlooking energy contracts. (I didn't go through the entire list and match up the contract specs).
Exchange margin requirement as of today is "only" $500-1000" depending on how far out in the future the contract is. Most brokers have day trading margins that cut that in 1/2 or more for electronic markets). That's 1:1000-1:4000 leverage. More on that in another post. The point is, liquidity is not a problem;), especially if you can spread out into multiple contracts.
The CME actually provides volume statistics for each market category (agriculture, grains, fx, etc), for the different exchanges in the CME group, and for the total volume in all of the CME group.
....you must use as much automation as possible. As Dan Weiss said in one of his recent marketing videos: "....[paraphrasing] yes, you can make money doing xxxxxx, buy can you make a living from it? Not without automating the majority of the repetitive parts of the business."Hi, wrbtrader,Man, hahaha so true. To become a succesful trader my biggest challenge was not to find a winning strategy and developing a trading plan (seriously, thats the easy part). For me it was figuring out a strategy AROUND my family life. Got 3 kids , two go to private school and one little one (11 months) demanding attention 24/7 . The wife also works so half the time i'm changing diapers and looking at the charts at the same time. The single dude living at his parents house has such a huge advantage (only a shame you realize that when its too late and paying bills like there is no tomorrow hahah).
Sorry, didn't want to get off topic here but i guess there are traders out there that know exactly what i'm talking about. "How to be a trader and having a family life" could be a good title for a whole new thread.
Good to know your wife supports you in this business. it can be a hard sell among financers (viewed as gambling) and family (viewed as gambling/unstable income). Especially if you are trading with the rent money. And living up to Western standards of living.
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Hi 4Ever ,I am suprised at the lack of response to your spreadsheet.
I for one, find it very interesting.
Unfortunately it is hard to follow without the video.And I am deaf so I cant follow the video.
Do you have a written version hidden away. It does not have to be Oxford English.
kind regards
bobc
It was something I tossed up on a few forums to facilitate the explanation of how money management is more important than trying to guess precise entry/exit. It also shows how you don't have to reinvent the wheel to be profitable. The videos are a bit extensive, but the spreadsheets can be viewed in a better light when you see a full mechanical system in action. I never did post those videos, but hopefully this weekend there will be some new surprises coming. It's been several months and 1000s of man hours of combined observing, testing, and tweaking system bugs. Especially the APAMI price action indicator.
The website will have a more written documentation of how to use spreadsheet. I will do my best to contain more written words in the videos. I was going to wait until I actually had the webpage up before making any update comments
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I got lucky recently. I took a trade on the 6E when my entry conditions hadn't been fully met. The trade went against me immediately. I then tried to avoid the loss. I averaged down by adding another contract. That didn't work. I moved my stop several times. That didn't work either. The potential loss kept getting bigger. Price finally turned and came back to my original stop loss level. I gladly closed the position. I have since rewritten my trading plan. I have included a notation to "Never move stops or average down. Take the loss. Wait for a new opportunity."Classic problem that some traders face of not following their original rules. Nothing wrong with adjusting and tweaking your system, but it is the way you went about it. You made numerous changes on the fly without any prior testing. Then you make a hard rule never to average down or move stops. Had you used a tool to work out your averaging ahead of time, you would have been prepared for the drawdown and been able to pick out profit targets more objectively. Choosing a new and untested method caused you to panic when immediate expected gains were not achieved. Is it fair to write off the entire method due to fear instead of re-attempting the method with a more thorough approach?
If your position came back to your original stop loss level, then you should have either broke even, or suffered a smaller loss because of the averaged total position.
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My father,who,when i was a kid,always used to say "you make your own luck in life" is the luckiest son of a bitch i've ever known.Which kind of makes his statement a debatable point.They say fortune favors the brave.Would Nassim Taleb be lucky if the market crashed today,or is he unlucky every day it doesn't?
It appeared your father was "lucky", because you look at life as being random series of events. Your father understood the power of choice, and controlled his life story by making wise choices. Most people write their life stories without awareness, so when something "good" comes their way, it appears as what you are calling luck.
if you have a 50/50 chance of an event occurring and you hit 5 winners in a row, you were lucky. It is a temporary condition.It Teleb is taking a risk on a 1/1000 year event that already occurred 5 years ago and he hits it again, then he was lucky.
With spread and commissions, you are actually still behind. Casinos realize this and remove the "edge" from all of their games. There must be less than 50% chance of you winning with any game where you play against the dealer where you can win the whole pot or a matching bet.
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ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TRADING* Price either goes up or down.
* No one knows what will happen next.
* Keep losses small and let winners run.
* POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.
* The reason you entered has no bearing on the outcome of your trade.
* You can control the size of your loss (skill) but you can't control the size of your win (luck).
* You need to know when to pick up your chips and cash them in.
Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) - (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)
You cannot control the probabilities of wining or losing.
You cannot control your average win size.
The only part of the equation that you can control is your average loss size.
PRICE ACTION
“Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:
1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)
2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)
They happen regardless of time frame .
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden
1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar
2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar.
You cannot reduce it any further. Anything else complicates the issue.
ENTERING A TRADE
You either decide to:
1) Wait and do not enter a trade
2) Trade a breakout
3) Trade a reversal.
Those are your ONLY 3 options.
That is all you need to know about trading.
Very well put. I was amazed at how people really go all out to interpret all these wonderful chart patterns and other visual "special effects," yet the most basic, linear part of price per unit volume totally escapes the majority of traders. I suppose the best place to hide something is in plain sight.
This is why my APAMI move indicator will be such a breath of fresh air. The focus is solely on qualifying just what is price action in a way that allows a trader to clearly define a trend (higher high or lower low) and then make a choice.
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I would start with a discretionary trading platform, mainly because if you dont understand how or why this element of it works, then understanding how or why an automated system works might be a lot more difficult.Then use automation to replicate a successful discretionary strategy.
Not sure if the OP is referring to purchasing or leasing a platform, but you do have a point Siuya. I think sierra chart is still one of the cheapest paid charting platforms where you can get free historical data. Judging by the username of OP, then they will probably be dealing with Metatrader 4/5, which is free to the end user anyway.
Honestly, i don't know how in this day and age how a charting platform would not come with some kind of programming language and be competitive. Too many "free" platforms or low cost platforms already do "charting-only" well.
Additionally, there is a tool called ForexTester which would allow you to practice over the weekend with replay (best to have tick historical data). I think openEcry has something similar, but you can only go back 1-3 weeks. Better than nothing
Thanks guys, that makes sense!And what about signal providers and EA, can we trust on the "top 100 charts" we can find in those sites (etoro, tradecopier, whatever)?
Thanks
It's up to you to evaluate and make decisions.
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The best way to do this is completely "mechanize" your trading system. With an objective trading strategy, it is easier to observe what it does and how you react to what it is doing. Trying to manage trades manually AND your emotions [edit] is tough because your emotions automatically trigger responses.
Of course many traders do trade with money they could not afford to lose. So observing your fears and determining what you can handle mentally will help with position sizing. I learned just as former turtle trader Curtis observed, you have to be able to watch your drawdowns and know that they are just part of the overall profit strategy. This is extremely difficult to do when any part of implementing your system, especially the exit, is arbitrary.
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Perhaps the biggest secret in trading is that there is no secret.
There is a difference between opinion and fact, but the human ego can sometimes have a hard time discerning this. Especially when we are attached to our own preferences. For example, you hinted that there is a correlation between Trading frequency and profitability: The higher the trading frequency, the lower the profitability or ability to keep the profits. But there is no real proof of this.
If person X drives from point A to point B at 20mph, and then person Y drives from the same point A to point B at 60 mph, do they both reach their destination? Yes. The only difference is that person Y reaches their destination 3 times faster. This isn't good or bad, but simple arithmetic. One could argue that traveling at a faster speed is "riskier" than a slower speed of getting into a collision. So you would have to test and see which speed would give the maximum speed, but lowest chance for acceptable collision. After all, you could just go at a speed of 0 mph, but then you wouldn't go anywhere.
Without any specific advice or concrete examples, it is very difficult for people to objectively determine whether or not the advice can be incorporated into their trading strategy.
Who Has A Strategy That Works??
in Technical Analysis
Posted · Edited by 4EverMaAT
To answer the OP, there are two main explanations as to why successful traders may not post their winning system (or at least some of them)
1) they prefer to keep them in house. This is due either to adopting the scarcity model of economics, or just preference to not wanting too much of their business out on the street. You probably guessed that the scarcity model wins in the majority of cases.
2) they don't have a winning system (one that is consistently reproducible), but prefer to claim that they do.
My experience has shown that #2 is the case about 90% of the time. Humans love telling stories. Especially in Western culture, when there isn't a good explanation for something, we either ignore it altogether or if the object is so in-your-face that blatant ignorance is not feasible, we create powerful mythologies to explain what or why a phenomenon is happening. The good news is because the truth is obvious and readily accessible to all who want it, it is unnecessary to rely solely on guru or teacher.
Yes. Of course the trader's ego will resist with all its might :security:. Without the trader, the ego has nothing to latch onto.....no way to interject an opinion. The system could actually work as intended without interference.
To help answer the OP's question, Tams actually reminded us in the very first reply to this thread of the classic approach to buying and selling: buy low, sell high and vice versa. This basic approach to determining the best contract price to buy or sell will not change.
This is easy to do walking forward in real time, mainly because you have a real-time display of prices. You can always buy lower or sell higher based on the available price. So depending on your buying power (available margin), you can buy or sell an instrument in series and then accumulate net profits when prices move back in your favor (on a retracement). This is also known as cost averaging. Here is a spreadsheet to help practice working out numbers and determine appropriate levels of risk. There is another tool that works on metatrader 4 that closes out profit after equity target is reached.
There are advantages to automating the entire process, but that's for another thread.