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Spydertrader
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Posts posted by Spydertrader
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I have tryed a strategy in NT based on fast changes in volume coupled with price action but longterm backtesting yielded always no profit.Without the ability to accurately reflect market sentiment in a binary fashion, one cannot expect to locate a positive result from neither back testing nor walk forward analysis.
In addition, how fast (a gradient measurement) cannot override the market signals of 'change' or 'continue.' (binary measurement).
HTH.
- Spydertrader
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I am currently attempting to why the black thick thing and the red thick thing are the same fractal. If I were to consistently apply the annotation method used up to 15:05, it would be a medium thing. The black thing does start on extreme volume; is that sufficient (in this particular context) to know that this container is on the thick fractal?You have one more container to annotate in order to create a thick fractal (channel). You'll then have three medium weight containers to compare and contrast. If you complete the annotation process for a channel (thick container), you should see two very similar traverses and one different traverse. Determining why the two are similar vs why the one is different should then become easier for you.
- Spydertrader
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Here you go... what is called a tape in the image I took to be a traverse...Listen. You need to fight the urge to overcomplicate things. In the beginning stages of attempting to learn this material, everyone (including myself) tries to 'invent' different ways they 'feel' might best suite their needs, but the reality is, far different than one expects. You currently find yourself 'hung up' on vocabulary. Your prior educational experience dictates you need to understand vocabulary in order to understand a concept. This is true only in cases where vocabulary is the differentiating factor.
In this specific case the words "tape, traverse, channel, bbt, sub bbt sub-sub bbt (or however many fractals down the rabbit hole one wishes to travel)" have zero relevance to understanding. One could just as easily use "thin, medium, thick, dotted, dashed, dot-dashed" or even "pig, goat, cow, spider, insect, bateria" to describe the exact same events. You understand the "pig, goat, cow" analogy because you know the absolute definition of each organism. You therefore assume, using the same approach, all you need is to understand the absolute definition of "tape, traverse, channel or bbt," What the reality is you have yet to understand that the market often speaks in a language which (while sometimes providing absolutes) most frequently transfers information in a relative sense.
In other words, you should focus on when you have a completed container compared to when the market continues to build the same container. In such a fashion, you need not know what to call the container itself, but by applying the fractal nature of all markets, you can know when one container has ended, and another has begun.
- Spydertrader
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.So- just to get this clear in my head: we are talking about 4 fractals, and the sequences have to complete in each-correct.We want to always annotate three fractal levels. Sometimes, we have the ability to see more than three fractal levels. Sometimes it is difficult just to see three levels.
The market provides clues as to when one can expect difficulty seeing three levels, as well as, times when we can expect to see more than three levels.
- Spydertrader
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All I notice is that the non-dom 'subtapes' (blue lines) typically start with vol well below extreme pace, even after the transition to extreme vol in the 14:50 dom bar.A significant amount of information exists with the creation of each and every Volume Bar. Similarly, the market provides far more information, with respect to Pace Changes, than just how 'non-dom sub tapes' present themselves.
Ok. Attached w/ three levels of gaussians. From this perspective, it is clear that the 10am->11am movement is just a tape from point 2 to 3 of the traverse.
How can you know if your statement resulted from accurate (or incorrect) information?
From this (more volume-oriented) point of view, how do I know that the b2bs after sequence completion (14:50) but before the pt2 (10:00)? Is that where the VE's come in?
Context, always has been, and always will be, king. You cannot make decisions in a vacuum. VE's must always be handled in a consistant fashion. Fanning must always be handled in a consistant fashion. Pace changes must always be handled in a consistant fashion. Order of events must always be handled in a consistant fashion. Dominance and Non-dominance must always be handled in a consistant fashion.
The current Traverse under discussion exists within a known entity called a channel. Annotate all components of the channel in a consistant fashion and you'll understand the answers you seek existed right in front of you all along.
- Spydertrader
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Is the attached an accurate representation of this concept?
Your question assumes too many things which may or may not represent a true indication of the market, and which may or may not indicate a specific context, rather than, an overall concept applicable to any context.
As such, answering your question assures transference of untended information.
Therefore, rather than answer your question, I'll reword my previous post.
[begin rewrite of previous post]
Point One's (of a specific container) do not move (within that specific container).
[End rewrite of previous post]
HTH.
- Spydertrader
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If I could ask some clarification on what you are saying here regarding This ChartIf you look at my older charts, you'll often see numerous examples of where I added a 'new' Point One of a container - specifically during periods of Pace Acceleration. This was more a function of the annotation tool I used (for placing 1, 2, 3 on a chart), rather than, a function of how markets operate.
To be clear, a Point One always begins a container.
Rather than think in terms of a 'new' Point One (or two different colors for the same Line Weight thickness), you should consider the entire move (to Point Two of the Channel) as one Traverse which required an acceleration of its RTL (Right Trend Line). After all. VE's do not represent the only circumstance which results in an acceleration of the RTL.
In other words, a Point One isn't going to move,
Please note: We have only discussed a Point One.
Edit: To some, the above might appear as nothing more than semantics. However, down the road, when you start to compare the relative vs. absolute nature of things, you'll not send yourself down the incorrect path.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
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Could you give us a bit of a primer on what exactly Pace is?!See those lines in the Volume Pane? Those are different Pace Levels (VDU, DU, Slow, Medium, Fast and Extreme). In the beginning of this thread (First couple of pages), I posted a graphic showing the relationship between Volitility (Price) and Pace levels (Volume). Others (cnms2's posts come to mind, along with a few others) have provided guidance with respect to what one can expect with certain types of Pace Changes.
- Spydertrader
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How should one choose between the interpretations?You should consider the effect changing Pace has on your ability to 'see' things clearly, and start again. You should also consider annotating three fractals in an effort to see how the nesting process works. Sometimes proper nesting of fractals can make things a bit easier to see.
- Spydertrader
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The sources you provided seem to have students and no degreed traders achieving success.The only measure of success a trader needs is the direction of his or her trading account.
Within this thread, within other threads on this web site, and within numerous threads on elitetrader.com's web site, people (including myself) have posted their trade blotters showing their levels of success.
Choosing not to go locate the evidence you seek, is far different than acting as if the evidence doesn't exist.
Are you trading it successfully or are you just the president and not a client?
I've traded using the Price / Volume Relationship since 2006 - first with equities, and now, exclsuively with futures. Trading, currently (and for the last 6 years), represents my only source of income.
You can locate an entire year of my equities trades (and their execution reports) on ET.
You can locate several of my futures trades over on ET using 20 - 40 ES contracts.
You can locate trades made by people who studied the Price / Volume relationship in this thread, in other threads on this web site, and also, over at ET.com's web site.
I don't make a dime if you read the information I have shared, and I don't lose a dime if you don't read it. Nothing is for sale here. When I present at the Traders Expos (NYC or Las Vegas), I do not charge for my time. Any fees ($50 bucks at the NYC Expo and $100 at the Vegas Event) went to defray the cost of room rental, lunch, dinner, dessert and drinks.
Read what's here, or don't. It really makes no difference to me. Either way, may you enjoy success in your future endeavors.
Good Trading to you.
- Spydertrader
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The question was directed to the followers.The people participating here aren't 'followers' of any sort. They are here working towards learning something. As such, to direct your question to students makes little sense.
Would you ask a Med Student how many surgeries he or she performed successfully?
Would you ask a Law Student how many cases he or she has won?
Would you ask an apprentice carpenter how many homes he or she has built?
If you truely do have an interest in receiving an answer to your question from individuals who have completed the learning process, then you've already been provided the location of the evidence you seek.
Look for it, or don't look for the evidence already provided. Makes no difference to me, but you might want to consider the possibility your question has already been asked (and answered) long before you ever posted in this thread.
Good trading to you.
- Spydertrader
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Just wondering if any devout followers of this method have successfully applied it to markets in real time with real money.More than a few people have posted their trade execution reports (either on TL.com or on ET.com) indicating they have reached profitability.
Simply stated, I am incredibly skeptical that anyone can apply this with any type of long term success.
Nobody will care if you remain skeptical right up until the point you begin to make money. In fact, I was skeptical while I was first starting to make money. Ninety-five out of a hundred people dismiss my posts as pure hokum. I've always been cool with that.
- Spydertrader
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For a VE to create a new sequence(move to a new point 1) the VE has to occur after point 3(in this case the 2B completed) and when a trader would have been looking for an FTT but instead the market VE'ed the LTL?Can you fail to do something you've just completed doing?
Can Price Fail To Traverse that which it has just traversed?
- Spydertrader
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Transferring correctly in this medium for me can be a challenge it appears.LOL. Welcome to my world. :rofl:
- Spydertrader
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This is what led to my question about ES only or needing to use the YM?Your latest annotations bring you much, much closer to the actual information provided by the market.
Some things to keep in mind:
1. Your Pink (first one) down Traverse has a Point One in the incorrect location. If the medium pink trend lines represent acceleration, you do not have a new Point One. The first tape, the first traverse and the channel itself all have the same Point One (Red Number One on your chart) - always and without exception.
2. Note the Pace changes. Pace influences all frctals - not just medium and thick.
With respect to the use of the YM, pull up a YM chart for the timeframe of your final down traverse (ending at 10:30). What does the YM show you that you cannot see on the ES? Now, look back at the ES. What thing appears to have obscured your view?
Use the YM to locate answers for when you find yourself 'stuck.' Apply these answers onto the ES. Soon, you'll see through the fog which appears to obscure your current view.
In such a fashion, you'll learn how not become 'stuck' in the first place.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
Edit: Please note the above post with respect to the use of the YM does not advocate use of the YM for trading purposes (even though, one could do so with positive results). The above post advises using the YM for learning purposes during periods of debrief in an effort to learn to see that which a trader might not yet have learned to see.
Nothing more. Nothing less.
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The "emphasis" i was referring to was the use of lite gray(vs.black or red) for non-dom gaussians lines on my charts.Thanks for providing additional clarification for me.
- Spydertrader
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Hence the emphasis on dominant gaussians and less on non-dom gaussians as my "indicator" of market dominance.hthI did not intend to transfer a diminished emphasis on non-dominance, or non-dominant gaussian movement relative to dominance, or dominant gaussian movement. After all, one cannot arrive at Point Three without moving in a non-dominant direction.
Make sure you fully comprehend the information provided by the Gaussian Lines.
- Spydertrader
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I think I jumped a fractal in trying to convey my meaning.
O.K. Now, if if you know something ended at 10:30 on the 15th, and that something represents the exact same something that ended on the 13th (at 2:15), then you also know what must come next with respect to the next thing (which begins at 10:30 on the 15th).
Have you annotated in the exact same fashion (based on context, pace and order of events) for each of these two areas?
Newly posted revised chart snip.
Note the location differences in the medium weight pink line.
- Spydertrader
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Concerning the Traverse (I am now certain of this...no really!) that ended at 10:30et the 15th.Didn't we see a channel end on the 13th at 2:15 (Eastern Time)? What then must have ended at 10:30 on the 15th (based on what the market showed you after the 10:30 mark. (Eastern Time)
I am leaning toward the idea that this Traverse is knowable using only the 5min ES. Is this a reasonable conclusion?Everything remains 'knowable' by using a single time frame chart (with equities, one uses a daily chart to see the same information we look to see on a five minute time frame). However, it may be the case that, sometimes, certain people need to use another tool to learn to see that which another finds perfecty clear - without using the additional tool.
Once someone can see that which once appeared obscure, the 'learning tool' is no longer required for learning or seeing.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
Edit: Keep in mind the following: At one point in history, only one time frame existed - daily. Back then, one could not 'look to another tool' for answers. Today, you do have the ability to locate answers by using another tool, but that does not mean it is the only way to locate answers. Some just find it an easier way.
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PS: to anyone, how can I get multiply quotes included from a post?there is only the one, as above and the rest have not been displayed in the same way
If you wish t 'multiple quote' the same person (from the same post), simply copy the fist portion of the quoted text( in the example of me quoting you: [ qoute=zt379;105310 ], and then, paste it in front of the text you wish to quote. Also, include the "closed quote" box at the end of each quoted section.
HTH.
-Spydertrader
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Did I still manage to jump fractals with the gaussians shown?Before I answer, why not extend your annotations (which began on the 13th) out until 10:30 AM (Eastern Time) on the 15th of October.
I think, by doing so, you'll realize you aleady know the answer to your question. If not, feel free to let me know.
- Spydertrader
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It is frequently the case
I do not know what you can and cannot see with respect to how all markets operate on a fractal basis. I only know all markets exist on a fractal basis. A trader's ability to 'see' that which the market provides results out of two criteria - the individual trader's mental filters which prevent accurate transfer of information, and market pace.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
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For those using charts with the opening (overnight) gap removed, is it advisable to look back several days if you are comparing if price went higher than a previous high etc? Or do you switch to using a chart with the gaps present if you are in these situations (where you are looking back more than just the previous tape/traverse, but possibly several days)?You use the 'gap adjusted' (removal of the overnight gap) Price to determine whether Price has moved 'beyond' your 'point of certainty.'
HTH.
- Spydertrader
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Can it be known the Traverse is not complete without the up Channel RTL (more precision)?Yes.
Did I still manage to jump fractals with the gaussians shown?Yes.
For a Pt 2, do you normally use the geometric placement or the actual point where you end the x2x?Actual Point.
- Spydertrader
The Price / Volume Relationship
in Technical Analysis
Posted
Everything ends at 10:30. A whole new set of things begins at 10:30. Don't concern yourself with what you believe happens after 10:30, but remain focused on what happens between 2:15 and 10:30.
- Spydertrader