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thalestrader

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by thalestrader

  1. thalestrader
    That is exactly what you should be looking to do - identify S/R on the 240 minute or higher, and then trade S to R and R to S. Give up those fib targets. You are using them indiscriminately. Even when I mention fib retracements, I always say to find significant fib levels that correspond to significant S/R levels. Your entry on Monday should have been for a 208 tick profit. S/R always trumps fibs. In fact, I am sure I have said thata here before. As far as you desire for experience, I also said ... Listen to SIUYA and listen to yourself: Quality is what matters. You gain quality experience by not trading when there you see no defined set ups at significant price levels. Do not trade for the sake of gaining experience. Trade or not trade based on where price is and what it is doing there. Best Wishes, Thales
  2. thalestrader
    I see the second push that actually tagged resistance as the better spot to start looking for a 123 type entry, but I do have the benefit of looking at it in hindsight, and as you know, these things are always clear in hindsight. Yes, I think that if you locate a break up or break down accompanied by a clear 123, and you want in, then rather than chase the trade, let the trade come back to you, and add a pullback to the breakout point to your repertoire. Otherwise, I fear that you will continue to get chopped to death without anything other than your frustration to show for it. Also, I know I recommended in the past that you perhaps put day trading on hold, and rather than being glued to a 15 minute chart, you give straight S/R trading a try, using 60, 240, and daily charts, or perhaps a range bar chart (I use 13R and 34R for the 6E). Look for areas of S/R where significant fib levels coincide. Best Wishes, Thales
  3. thalestrader
    I do not know if you had noticed, but here is where I posted what I would have used as a short entry: And if you click back to that quote, you can then click back to the chart I had posted from that night. Initially, I saw a 123 with an entry level of 110.14 +/-, but then the EURJPY rallied to a new high a tick or two above 111.00, and the subsequent price action set up a 123 with a revised entry level of 110.30 +/- ... that is where I had presumed you had entered. It was only after you posted that moving your stop loss saved you from a full 1R loss that I took a close look at your chart and saw your entry. Here is what I think: 1) You missed the real initial 123 entry into that downswing, which I posted above, and you were looking for a place to get in. But in doing so, you simply looked for a 123 of any degree, and at any place. 2) Also, you seems to be trading without any real awareness of S/R considerations. Do yourslef a favor, and strike a fib retracement tool from the 111.01 +/- high to the 109.29 +/- low. Tell me if you find a level where a significant fib level coincides with a significant actual price level where one might reasonably expect a test as resistance. If you find one, then that should have been you entry area. You could have watched closely for a small degree 123-like price movement to get you in, or you could have watched closely, shorted on the first hint of price being rejected at that level, with a tight stop above that level. Do you see the level to which I am alluding? If so, I want to see your chart showing at least a scribble or two showing me that you understand what I just said. Best Wishes, Thales
  4. thalestrader
    I did not look closely at your chart before I posted. I thought your entry was higher. What do you think of that trade? Best Wishes, Thales
  5. thalestrader
    We're back to that again, are we? Best Wishes, Thales
  6. thalestrader
    I'll not bother with an updated chart (too many steps to attach a chart, you know) ... but a quick look at this would have me saying to try a short below 110.30 and a stop above 111.05. Best Wishes, Thales
  7. thalestrader
    Heard from my old friend Blowfish today, and it has me pining away for old times. So, for old time's sake, here it goes ... Perhaps a second chance ... maybe for a sleigh ride all the way to 107.25? 105? I'd be looking to sell below 110.14, with a stop above 110.77, and I'd be willing to let this ride to a 300 tick profit or take my loss. And what happened to the little paper clip icon that made adding attachemnts so easy? Now I have to click on "manage attachments" to upload a file? MMS, if it ain't broke, please don't fix it. Best Wishes, Thales
  8. thalestrader
    I would suggest that Nicolas Darvas's How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market and William O'Neil's How to Make Money in Stocks, and in that order, would be two great books with which to start. Both can be thought of as value/momentum traders. Both look for strong technical (momentum) action by the stocks of fundamentally strong companies. If you are primarily a long investor, I would also sugest that you remain so until you become more comfortable with a "trading" as opposed to a "buy and hold forever" type strategy. This means you want to be in cash during a down market, rather than short, and only be long when the market is in a confirmed uptrend. Of course, that is somewhat easier said than done, so again, I suggest you read those two books. Best Wishes, Thales
  9. thalestrader
    Indeed. Remember, what might appear to be a 123 can actually prove to be an ABC correction, as was the case here. Your stop on the anticipated 123 reversal becomes your entry on an ABC double bottom continuation type trade. Best Wishes, Thales
  10. thalestrader
    Great to see you, Marko. I hope you and yours are doing well. Best Wishes, Thales
  11. thalestrader
    I would just say that it tested support, and support held. Had it pierced the lower limit of that support (zone), then we'd have had a break, and if that break was quickly reversed, we'd have a 2B (though I like 2B's better when they occur at a swing high or swing low, rather than somewhere is the middle of the last important swing). Best Wishes, Thales
  12. thalestrader
    Funniest post at TL in a long, long time, MM - thanks for putting a smile on my face that doesn't seem in any hurry to go away. Best Wishes, Thales
  13. thalestrader
    Support/resistance is rarely a line or a pot so much as it is a zone or a bed - take a look at the line you drew and try to imagine a rectangle, i.e. a zone or bed of support with depth, not a mere line. If you see what I see, then you would likely change your opinion from "a soid support line which price broke" to a "bed of support which price tested and support help." Best Wishes, Thales
  14. thalestrader
    It is not about that trade or any particular trade right now, Cory. Yes, you still need to watch price, make your analysis, and place your bet (or at least know where you would be placing your bet if you were indeed betting). What you need to do right now is pay attention to what is going on around your trade, i.e. where has price been, where is it now, and how did it get there. I guess this is what others refer to as "context." The reason I want you to stop playing with your stop is that I think you need to free yourself again to pay attention to the whole chart rather than focusing on the last few bars and next 300-400 tics. You should place your bet, and then write down what you see, and do it immediately - Are you going long or short? Is the trade a reversal, or a continuation of the preceding main trend? Are you really trading a sharp, clear 123 or is it more of a choppy consolidation with little to no distinctive swings? Where is the nearest support? Why do you feel it should be support? How do you expect price to act if and when it gets there? What will you do if it acts as you expected? What if it does the unexpected? Where is the nearest resistance? Etc... All those observations posted by your friends here, those "take aways," are what you need to be aware of in real time. You can say you are, but are you really? And I do mean write it ... put pen to paper. Best Wishes, Thales
  15. thalestrader
    That's a good observation ... what else? Best Wishes, Thales
  16. thalestrader
    Is that what you are going to take away from today? Study that chart, Cory. There are a number of things worth noting, the least of which is your concern about your breakeven threshold. Best Wishes, Thales
  17. thalestrader
    " Is that all about you the trader? I think not..." Ok, so you think it isn't. I think it is. All you have done is described a trader in a situation where an apparently well chosen entry was spoiled either by a badly chosen stop loss, or else by the failure to formulate and to follow an intelligent plan to re-enter in the direction of the initial entry. How is that anyone else's "fault" or "responsibility" than that of the individual trader. What does that have to do with "other participants" and their phantom "ability to shake us out." I'll let you have the last word, if you choose, because while I am fond of debates, in your case I find no pleasure in discussing this with you. Best Wishes, Thales
  18. thalestrader
    Since the "Wishlist" thread does not show u with recent posts, I am quoting this post here to make sure it gets noticed (I know MMSv2 is reading this thread, after all). Best Wishes, Thales
  19. thalestrader
    I'd like the "traders who have visited today" to be re-enabled. I always liked to be able to see if any of my od friends were up and around. Also, it seems as though the "currently viewing this thread" has been turned off as well. I thought that was also a good feature. Best Wishes, Thales
  20. thalestrader
    Cory, Try this for four weeks: Don't move your stop. Place entry, stop loss, and profit target(s), and then let it go. You have everything down except you are trying to finesse your stops as the trade ages, and you just don't have that feel yet. You will get it, but you will get it by watching your trades mature on their own. Trade small enough that you do not worry about the $$, or demo trade if you must, but let your trades mature on their own according to your initial analysis - entry, stop, profit objectives. You may end the four weeks net +/-, but the pnl is not what matters. You need to stop actively micromanaging your trades and learn to watch and enjoy price moving again. Best Wishes, Thales
  21. thalestrader
    I have no reason to want to engage you at all. I do so only to say that you are dead wrong - this is cooking. Trading is not at all competitive. Oh, it has become quite fashionable to say that it is so, but fashions come and go, while the eternal nature of the game endures. And it is a solitary game, not a competitive sport. It is generally agreed that 90% who try to trade are net losers by the time they quit. How is that competitive? If competition is at all involved, then that is no competition at all - that's shooting fish in a barrel! How is trading competitive? It is me against me. Nothing you do on the other end of a wire is going to change tomorrow's outcome for me. At 4PM tomorrow, my equity will be what it will be because of me, and no one else. And anyone buying the line that this is "the most competitive profession in the world" does so for one of two reasons: 1) Because succeed or fail, it pumps his ego to think himself part of "the most competitive profession in the world"; or 2) it comforts him in that his failures are due to having been out-foxed by others, and it is through no fault of his own that his results are not what he had hoped, and to achieve better results, he merely must learn to out-fox the other foxes, thus he is able to rationalize avoiding working on himself. You choose your entry, you choose your target, you choose your stop - You place the trade - nothing anyone else does will affect the outcome of your choice. Trading is not a competitive sport. Trading is nothing other than you and your ability to perceive, manage, and exploit risk, while maintaining the emotional and intellectual discipline necessary to do so profitably. Traders who lose are not beaten by other traders. As Livermore well knew, "the market does not beat them. They beat themselves." Period. Best Wishes, Thales
  22. thalestrader
    You're starting to sound like a whole new MadMarketScientist. I think I'll call you MMSv2, or v2 for short. To tell you the truth, I wasn't a big fan of v1, at least in terms of operating TL. A nice enough guy, you understand, but he was no James. But do try not to be so heavy handed with the censorship, ok? I agree that personal attacks, obscenities, and, of course, SPAM, ought to be struck from the TL record. But these little skirmishes give a bit of color and flesh out some internet characters, wouldn't you agree? Why not let them stand? Best Wishes, Thales
  23. thalestrader
    An overall excellent post - and this especially is an excellent analogy, Ingot54. I would only add that when the chef is waving and gesturing to all that he is the one who did the cooking, and he is at the same time offering you lessons in a cooking class, then one might forgive the dinner guest who insists on verifying that the chef did indeed prepare the meal before said guest forks over his tuition in the hope that he too might learn to cook as well as the chef, or at least better than said guest is currently able to cook, right? Best Wishes, Thales
  24. thalestrader
    I for one will be watching optiontimer's thread with great interest. Thank you for sharing, Ingot54. Best Wishes, Thales
  25. thalestrader
    I see that MM's prior post has been deleted. Let us hope this one is allowed to stand. I'd like to see TL return to putting the good of the community above the good of the paying vendors. I have no problem with such vendors peddling their wares here, so long as the TL community members are allowed to function as a sort of Consumer Reports for traders, examining the salesman's claims, which means that yes, we should be able to demand proof where such proof should reasonably be expected and given. I for one do not see where TL members ought to be "fish in a barrel" for these folks. Best Wishes, Thales
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