thalestrader

Short from 1.3713, 1.3280, 1.3204, and 1.3186 ... looking for the move to continue down to 1.3000-1.29000. Of course, it can do anything it wants to do, and stops are trailing behind. Best Wishes, Thales

2nd PT 1.5300 = +271 ticks ... Best Wishes, Thales

Here is the post with chart from when the long was initiated ... And here is what our daily chart looks like currently with prior notes and markings intact ... And then some - we're risking almost half of the open trade equity, though we'd probably have reason to abandon ship long before it goes that far against us. But, you never know, and that is what a stop loss is for. Now, if we were not already sitting on 400+ ticks of profit, and this was simply a new position, then standard "rip cord" rules would apply, i.e. cut the loss at 20-40 pips and try again later if price action calls for it. We did get filled on the 1.3280 sell limit, and here is what our position currently looks like ... Best Wishes, Thales

Hi MidK, Good to hear you're doing well! I have not been day trading much at all since May, but we've done very well working these swings in the 6E and the ES. Built a nice long position starting 9/14 on the 6E, with four total buy points, which was closed on 11/08 for +1100 ticks on the first position, +950 ticks on the second, +500 ticks on the third, and -79 ticks on the fourth. I enjoyed every single tick! If my business slows down enough this winter to allow me to day trade, I will likely limit myself to day trading stocks, and continue swing trading futures. Best Wishes, Thales

Current view of the EURUSD - this is a little account my daughter and I trade, and we have been short since last Sunday open 1.3713 (break of opening low into the gap), stop loss is currently 1.3490, and we are looking to add to the short at 1.3280 sell limit ... Best Wishes, Thales

There are few folks in any endeavor who would have been able to muster themselves to perform at a high level of focus and discipline under such circumstances as you labored. Had I known at the time, I'd have urged you to save your initial grubstake, stop trading, and come back to risk only once your situation was resolved. Your outcome this time around may or may not be better, but it certainly has a better chance of a achieving a more favorable result. I know I am not alone in wishing you well in your current efforts. Best Wishes, Thales

May all of your mistakes cause you to win twice as much as you intended! Best Wishes, Thales

You have obviously mistaken William J. O'Neil for someone else. O'Neil has never, to my recollection, referred to "candlestick" analysis in any of his writings, and he is hardly the type of trade to sit on any position for 10 years. I would doubt that over the last fifty years that he has had very many positions that were held for even ten months, let alone ten years. Best Wishes, Thales

I have used options as a surrogate for common stock for years in my swing trades. The only use I have found for the Greeks to have any relevance to my trading is on the rare occasion that I will open an option position on an index/ETF that is intended as a day trade. In those cases, I prefer to select front month options based upon delta, and I prefer strikes where the delta is between .70 and .85. Best Wishes, Thales

I would suggest that you do let yourself view losing trades as mistakes. You can do everything right, and trade according to the best laid plan, and you will still experience losses. You bought a break of a prior high. If that is your plan, then you didn't do anything wrong. Had price carried to 1.3520, you'd have been patting yourself on the back for having done the right thing. Well, why should the fact that price nicked your entry and reversed be any different. Go ahead and pat yourself on the back for having has the courage to trade your plan. Having said that, there are two points that might be worth noting. First, your entry occurred at the confluence (not sure I like that word but in this case it works) of a prior recent high and a fib resistance level, in this case the 2.618 extension of the first rally attempt off of the overnight low. My own preference is to buy a new high after the first reaction off of a low, shown in the attached chart and marked as low-high-higher low. I will typically strike two profit targets at levels where price action and fibs coincide. As you see, your entry was at what would have been my second profit target. As I said, that does not make your entry a mistake. The second point I'd like to make is that while I do not believe your entry was a mistake, I am not so sure about your stop loss selection. I am not at all sure how you selected your stop loss. Furthermore, I wonder if you perhaps did not appreciate enough what your long entry was up against at that point. Perhaps you may have chosen a much closer stop loss than 38 ticks. Yu may even have then seen that you should have possibly stopped and reversed as price action at that point etched out a fairly clear 2B short, (clear even in real time) to the impartial eye. So in my opinion, if you made any mistake at all, it was on your exit (you waited too long to pull the rip cord), and not on the entry. But, if your plan is to buy breakouts of prior highs/lows by one tick with a 38 tick stop loss, then I would say you made no mistake. Losing trades are a part of the game. Look back through this thread and you will find plenty of trades where I did everything right and according to my plan, and nonetheless the trade ended somewhere between break even and a loss. Best Wishes, Thales

Which came first, the chicken or the egg? I have no idea. But if you ask which came first, resistance or the pin bar, I'd say resistance came first. The "pin bar" did not "set off" the down move. The pin bar is simply a pictorial recording of the move during a specific set of minutes. Best Wishes, Thales

After the quick thrust following the Asia open the EJ has again entered a chop zone, though with a LHLL bias, which is another type of "no man's land." Best Wishes, Thales

and now looks like this ... Same as it ever was ... Support & Resistance, Highs & Lows, Impulse & Chop, etc. & so on ... Best Wishes, Thales

Would you also consider, perhaps, a long EURJPY that lookslike this ...? Best Wishes, Thales

I own a business that provides services to both residential and commercial customers, i.e. to both consumers and businesses. Business conditions started to improve during the middle of the Summer 2009, and really picked up during Q1 and Q2 2010 through June 2010. Sales in July through September were slower than I would have anticipated based upon the Spring activity, but October and (thus far) November has been outstanding. Interestingly, the market topped in April and a few months later, business conditions deteriorated, albeit only slightly. Market bottomed in July, and two months later, business conditions started to improve and sales are now back to levels not seen since pre-Q4 2008. Also of note is the fact that while my business is 75% consumer and 25% business customers, the largest part of our improvement from mid-summer 2009 through Spring 2010 was on our residential side, i.e. consumer customers. However, since early September, our commercial lines have really taken off, and given current bookings, Q42010 looks to be our strongest quarter for commercial business ever. I myself am not a fan of working Sundays, but tomorrow will be my first whole day off since Sunday October 10th. Also of interest to some may be this: We stopped taking credit cards in 2008 when banks started to boost our fees for merchant services, thus cutting into our gross margins at a time where I found it unreasonable to pass these costs through to our customers. To this day, we have lost not one customer on account of our no longer accepting credit cards. I tentatively conclude that the much written about "death of the consumer" based upon debt-overload is exaggerated. Those who are solvent can and do pay cash (and do so happily). Those who are not or were not solvent are passing through or have passed through bankruptcy and will soon be or now are solvent and able to pay cash (and do so happily). If I were a betting man, and if I were to try to translate what I am seeing as a business owner to what I should be expecting as a trader, my guess is that this bull snorts and stomps and runs until early 2012 and tops out with the S&P's somewhere around 1600. I doubt we shall ever see the 2009 lows again, at least not in my lifetime. Given The Consumer's new found disdain for banks in general and bank credit in particular, I'd expect financial services to lag this bull market. I think the whole world will soon witness just how strong the US consumer can be when operating from a cash basis. And have no doubt about it - this is undeniably a bull market. Best Wishes, Thales

Current view of the EURUSD has the pullback ending followed by a spurt to new rally highs. This is the daily chart. I'll post the weekly chart this evening, which will show that price is rallying toward a multi-year downtrend line. I expect price to break above this trend line eventually, though I would also not be surprised by a larger correction prior to breaking up to challenge the the all time high at 1.6038. Best Wishes, Thales

"The market doesn't beat traders ... they beat themselves." - Jessie Livermore Keep up the good posts! Best Wishes, Thales

Current view of the EURUSD with the action since the 15th looking more like a pullback in its uptrend rather than a top and reversal. Time (and price) will tell ... Best Wishes, Thales

I have no opinion as regards its business. If that were a 5 minute chart of the ES, I'd be looking to buy a 2B test of the low ... Best Wishes, Thales

Current view of EURUSD has price resting at the highs ... my bet is that that this rest 'tis but a pause before another sprint to new rally highs ... but time will tell. This has been a very easy long to hold, though a nice reaction to shakeout some weak bulls and suck in some anxious bears would be a welcome event at anytime ... Best Wishes, Thales

I try to avoid shorting breakouts to historic new highs. Not saying I haven't. Not saying I won't at some point fall for it again. But, in general, I have learned that it is better to buy new highs than to to short them. Best Wishes, Thales

Weekly chart of the EURUSD ... looking for 1.50 over the coming months, with 1.65 and 1.88 before the EURUSD rolls over again... Best Wishes, Thales

Current view of the EURUSD with next rally target. While a reaction of several hundred pips can occur at anytime, this rally looks intent on carrying for quite a ways. I suspect the long term (years) uptrend in the EURUSD is now resuming, and new all-time highs (US Dollar lows) will be seen in 2011-2012 ... Best Wishes, Thales

... a mere cat-nap, it would seem ... Best Wishes, Thales

EURUSD resting ... Best Wishes, Thales