[SunTrader]

I have my own "rules" which I wouldn't presume would be applicable to someone else.

[koganam]

Originally Posted by RicoX »

Heh,heh,heh... saying something should be avoided, not used, etc, never fails to rattle the cages. If you do need that kind of volatility last hour or last half hour might be your playing field. No arguments there. Thing is these rules were meant for thread starter not you. He still needs to learn how to earn and even more importantly keep the money. Trader that is not completely confident in his/hers abilities will give money back in the last hour. More often than not and that is a fact.

Last hour (or half hour) represents institutional playing field and because of size traded volatility expands. Doubt anyone here moves the size that would matter in these conditions, so we all fall in to the retail traders category. What we retailers count on to make trading decisions is technical analysis. We usually don't have more to go on. Technical analysis is a study of the past that tries to predict the future.

What happens in the last hour is that technicals start to break down because of the sudden added volatility and size traded. Stops need to be widened, support/resistances do not hold anymore, price starts to move erratically with programs running amok... If you're looking for directional trades in these conditions you're in a world of hurt. Since the thread starter is looking to make Al Brooks methods work, this was a good practical advice for him. Or anyone else for that matter. Why would any day trader willingly walk in to the last hour algo ran shit storm,risking hard earned money, is beyond me. If you're a day trader and not done before noon reexamine your trading methods. All day trail trades are exempt from this rule but you will want to be out before algos take over just as well.. Unless you like your stops tested.

But as always.. just my

I could not agree with you more.

When I took a good look at my Trading Journal, I was not really surprised how many times I gave back a whole lot, if not all and more, of my gains, in that last half-hour. That was when I set an alarm to go off at 1540 EST. When that alarm goes off, unless my trade is making money in a fevered rush, I hit the "Flatten" button without a second thought.

The funny thing though is that when I switch to Sim for that last hour, I always lose money when I actually take Sim trades, and it always seems as if I would have made money on those days that I take no trades. Go figure.

[pat15]

I do know a couple of people who trade ES well, but it takes several years at a minimum to make that happen. Once again, I would say pick the market that suits you. I no longer trade ES

Good advice. I trade ES and it can be tuff to trade but since it moves slow moast of the times, I can get out quick if I see it is not going in the direction I was looking for. I never add to losers so a small loss is ok with me.

estrader Could you pl espouse your thots on the reason for not trading ES and what did you move to in terms of trading.

Thank you

Pat

[estrader21]

Pat, what you said about ES being slow is exactly why I stopped trading it. ES also does not trend with enough profit for me. 10 ticks on a normal day seems to be a decent trade for ES. This does not excite me in the least Don Miller has a great scalping strategy but it requires more than 1 contract, is very active (read: a lot of work) and maybe his average is around 3 ticks of profit / ct, including losing trades (or expenses as he calls it). For a 1 lot trader (for now, at least), I think this style is very difficult. Trading short timeframes for a few ticks over the long run doesn't work me.

What I trade now mostly are NQ, TF and CL with some ZN thrown in. EC and GC are also movers but they do not suit me personally, nor may trading style. Many people I know like to actively trade EC so you just have to watch, put on a few trades and see what suits you. Note that ZN is not really a mover usually but there are times when it trends for several hours and is safer for overnight holds. I have it on the screen as the bond market is important for me to watch so I may as well trade it Anyways, it's up to the trader to decide what types of markets suit his/her psychology as well as what stats are suitable (risk reward ratio, % winners, average $win vs $stop size). I think the longer a 1 lot trader trades, the longer he can ride the winner and cut out at better levels. Once again, this takes time to learn and may not be the goal of that trader in the first place.

Originally Posted by pat15 »

Good advice. I trade ES and it can be tuff to trade but since it moves slow moast of the times, I can get out quick if I see it is not going in the direction I was looking for. I never add to losers so a small loss is ok with me.

estrader Could you pl espouse your thots on the reason for not trading ES and what did you move to in terms of trading.

Thank you

Pat

[pat15]

Thanks estrader...i do watch NQ TF and sometimes oil. TF can be deadly if entry is not good stops can be taken out in a hurry. NQ may be a good choice and I will look at it this coming week. CL is good and does trend well..again it is not for the faint hearted.

Regards


Pat