[thalestrader]

Hi Folks,

I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time. These do not have to be actual trades you are taking. The purpose would be for us to learn from one another how to recognize these opportunities in real time. Therefore, when you post a chart, be sure to clearly state the direction in which you anticipate price to move, and the reason you are interpreting price action in that manner. This is not a thread for secrets, show-offs, or salespeople selling systems.


I'll start off with the GBPUSD here soon after the markets have reopened for trading this Sunday evening. Looks like a potential short trade if there is a break of 1.6421 (For the record, I am not trading this).

The first red arrow would have been a nice short entry as the Cable put in a 1-2-3 top per Trader Vic (easy to see after the fact). The second red arrow swas a second chance short entry on the retest of the break of the "2" point on that 1-2-3 top (also easy to see in hindsight).

The third red arrow is the current market as price is trying to find support. If that support does not hold, a test of 1.6389 - 1.6406 would be next. I have some family time now, so I'll check in later and update the chart.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

The third red arrow is the current market as price is trying to find support. If that support does not hold, a test of 1.6389 - 1.6406 would be next.

Price did decline into the next area of anticipated support. A nimble scalper should have been able to come away with a respectable amount of ticks even as buyers stepped in at the anticipated support level surrounding Friday's reversal higher.

Natural stops are indicated by the dashed red lines. Any trade above there would certainly be enough to have me out of the market if I hadn't already taken myself out.

Best Wishes,

Thales

[thalestrader]

If I were short from the initial post, and I had I stayed short this far into the rally off the low, I'd right now have my stop fixed at a tick or so above that last reaction high.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

If I were short from the initial post, and I had I stayed short this far into the rally off the low, I'd right now have my stop fixed at a tick or so above that last reaction high.

And at this point the stop would be more or less at breakeven (+/- a few ticks). I'd be looking for a retest of the 1.6393 low, and if that breaks and price holds below it, then the green dashed lines would be the next target.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I'd be looking for a retest of the 1.6393 low, and if that breaks and price holds below it, then the green dashed lines would be the next target.

Price broke 1.6393, and quickly popped back above that level, but not by much. Price will need to break and hold below the shaded rectangular area to keep pressure on the downside and press toward a retest of the dashed green support zone around Friday's low.

The chart shows how the rectangular box is calculated using a fib extension tool - as you can see, as I was taking this screen shot, price has started to get in gear to the downside.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

Price will need to break and hold below the shaded rectangular area to keep pressure on the downside and press toward a retest of the dashed green support zone around Friday's low ... price has started to get in gear to the downside.

Closing in on support, and I'd be moving my stop to protect some profit. 1.6401 would be one tick above the highest price reached after price first poked below the 1.6393 support.

If you look at a time based chart (1 or 2 minute, for example), and you will se that there was a bit of resistance built at 1.6379. I guess that if I were trading this and I had a position that could be broken in two parts, I'd have a stop on half at 1.6380 and on the other half at 1.6401. I would probably also place a buy limit to take profits on one half at 1.6350.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

I guess that if I were trading this and I had a position that could be broken in two parts, I'd have a stop on half at 1.6380 and on the other half at 1.6401. I would probably also place a buy limit to take profits on one half at 1.6350.

Since I didn't trade this, it is hard to say what I would have done here, but price jumped quick off that 1.6359 and I may have taken some off there.

If not, I'd have one stop at 1.6380 (+40 ticks) and one at 1.6401 (+19 ticks), presuming I had a position that cold be broken in twain.

See you on the other side of the night.

Best Wishes,

Thales

PS As I was about to shut down I see that the first stop was just hit, so that would leave one half open with a stop at 1.6401. If I actually had this trade open, and I had just taken +40 ticks on half, I'd pull my limit orders and set up a 50-75 tick trailing stop and then I'd go to bed and see what it looked like in the morning.

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by thalestrader »

See you on the other side of the night ... and see what it looked like in the morning.

Hi Folks,

Well, had it been a real trade and had I sat up to monitor it through the night, it looks to me that the second hald would have been stopped out at 1.6337 or so for an 80 +/- tick profit.

The first 1/2 was stopped out at an admittedly arbitrary stop loss level. The second chart shows the natural progression of stop levels for this "trade." Had the whole trade been managed accoring to the stops dictated by price action itself, then a +80 tick profit on the whole position would have been attainable, and at one point, the open trade equity would have been 100 ticks +/-.

Of course, unless one is trading real money it is always a mere academic excercise to conjecture how the trade might actually have turned out, as even sim trading does nothing to train that most important prt of the traders soul - that part that deals with fear, greed, and the desire to be right, or at least not to be wrong.

A 50 tick trailing stop would have been stopped out at 1.6354 for +66 ticks; and a 75 tick trailing stop would have been stopped out at just about the same price as the first 1/2 position was last night at 1.6379 for +40 ticks give or take a few ticks.


Best Wishes,

Thales