Economic Data is All Cock and Bull

[TheNegotiator 13]

To anyone who tries to trade or invest based on economic releases and can't fathom why the market reacts the way it does, please take a look at this story and the video:-

 

Ignorance Is BLS

 

I've mentioned before that I question the reliability of the data and clearly this guy does too. I'm sure there are many others out there with the same view.

 

The data in question was the just past US Advance Retail Sales release, but it could be applied to many if not all releases.

 

I'm not advocating trading against the number. Indeed we see markets move in the direction of a release at least for a little while. But think carefully about how much weight to give the actual figure over the information that is right in front of you on your charts.

[onesmith 10]

think carefully about how much weight to give the actual figure over the information that is right in front of you on your charts.

Other than the expectation of increased volatility coinciding with the timing of reports there isn't any value in giving any weight to anything other than my charts.

[Obsidian 10]

nice video, I think data gathering style has to change somehow...

[TheNegotiator 13]

nice video, I think data gathering style has to change somehow...

 

It certainly feels like that to me, although if you were a conspiracy theorist you might suggest they actually want to report inaccurate numbers (or perhaps more to the point- ones which they can manipulate easily).

[Obsidian 10]

It certainly feels like that to me, although if you were a conspiracy theorist you might suggest they actually want to report inaccurate numbers (or perhaps more to the point- ones which they can manipulate easily).

 

I do not believe that governments are being realistic or transparent all the times...

There was an old comedy series on bcc (around 15 years ago I guess), "yes, minister" then it became "yes, prime minister"...new generation should watch those series to see how politics work :rofl:

[gaoxing 10]

Yes time and time again it is amazing to witness the market's price move according the lies of the Goverment Statistic & News Media. Like so many blatant ironic paradoxes of modern life "fighting for peace", etc. etc. it seems people get used to it as they are preoccupied with their own personal issues regarding personal and future security for them and their families.

 

I recently saw the new Sterlock holmes film and thought....hmm just like Iraq?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yes time and time again it is amazing to witness the market's price move according the lies of the Goverment Statistic & News Media.

 

It's usually because of opportunist traders who hit market off unexpected numbers. I think it's self fulfilling. Numbers traders hit market making it move a lot, other traders are wary and pull orders, numbers traders move the market more, other traders are more wary .....

[wessonlake 10]

Did a bit of research for day trading methods that deal with news events.

For what it's worth, here's a video I found:

 

How to Trade the News

 

...It focuses on trading once the event is over - interesting.

[Obsidian 10]

Did a bit of research for day trading methods that deal with news events.

For what it's worth, here's a video I found:

 

How to Trade the News

 

...It focuses on trading once the event is over - interesting.

 

I guess that video is a bit misleading, or not proper...the candle bar alone (closing higher or lower than opening) does not mean anything. that long shadow says a lot...imvho