Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

M.A

Expectations from Majors

Recommended Posts

It was a lazy day and eur/usd remained slightly bullish today. This bullish trend is mainly a correcitve move in response to yesterday's quick fall. Eur/usd has touched 1.3056 and now reversal is expected.

Technically next resistance lies at 1.3083. Major support lies at 1.2945.

 

Even though usd/jpy remained strongly bullish today but it is still trading within current week's 173 pip range. Volatility since the start of june is ended and pair is taking its time to settle down after lots of ups and downs. It is currently uptrend and is expected to face resistance near 98.70.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eur/usd continues slow but steady bullish trend and is trading near 1.3083 resistance level. Market sentiments on long trend remains bearish. This week is expected to end near this current level.

At last usd/jpy came out of range-bound movements this week. It is expected to find resistance at 10-june high of 99.28 and then at 100.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In coming week, following fundamentals will have significant impact on eur, usd and jpy.

 

On monday, ISM manufacturing index will have high impact on usd.

On tuesday, nothing much important and looks like technicals will dominate the market.

ADP non-farm employment change and initial jobless claims data will be released on wednesday which will have high impact on usd.

Next we have interest rate decision and draghi's speech, on thusday, which will effect eur.

On last trading day of the coming week, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will play an important part in usd's strengthening or weakening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Most of the euro data came better than expected which took eur/usd above 1.3050 level. Usd/jpy is trading near 99.75 level and can reach 100 if ISM manufacturing data comes better than expected.

 

We have ISM manufacturing index within 5 minutes and I am expecting high impact on both eur/usd and usd/jpy. I will try to follow the trend to grab some pips.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Manufacturing data didnt have enough impact to move eur/usd downwards. So I am still on hold and waiting for breakout. Longterm expectations are still bearish and shortterm trend is neutral.

 

Usd/jpy's upward movement is becoming slow as it is reaching near 100. Technically there is no resistance before 100 but psychologically 100 level is very strong resistance. Indicators are favoring strong bullish trend and there are currently no important fundamentals to stop it. It may go into consolidation mode before reaching 100. Tomorrow non-farm emplyment, jobless claims, trade balance and BoJ's governor speech are important factors to move this pair in either direction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eur/usd is steadily heading towards its next target of 1.2837. In next 2 hours, ADP non-farm employment data will be released and 15 minutes after that jobless claims and trade balance data will be released. If U.S data comes better than expected then a strong bearish move is expected in eur/usd. If U.S data comes weaker than expected then either the pair will go into consolidation mode or we may see very small upward move for a short period of time.

 

Usd/jpy crossed 100 level yesterday and reached near 101. It remained above 100 for about 20 hours and then a quick drop took it below 100. I was expecting a pause after reaching near resistance level of 100.75 but wasnt expecting a quick drop below 100. Pair is still trading above support trend line and between 50 and 100 MA. After quick drop, corrective moves are expected until U.S data is released today.

1.png.75b365a37158739a931f148936e2823b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

usdjpy might be in a contracting triangle as the move from the 103.70 area to the 94 area seems a three waves move that ended with a contracting triangle.........when such a triangle acts as a reversal pattern, it is usually (but not always) part of a triangle..........IMO the highs in the 103.70 area are only the end of a possible third wave to the upside (Elliott waves)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For this first time, in this week, fundamentals made an impact on majors. Eurozone interest rate remained unchanged. After Draghi's speech, eur/usd fell more than 100 pips within half an hour. Pair is currently trading above 1.2900 and I am expecting it to go towards next support level of 1.2837.

 

Usd/jpy played around, mostly below, 100 today. Short term trend remains unclear. Technically, longterm trend remains bullish.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another strong day for USD.

Non-farm payrolls data came better than expected. Usd is rocketing against rivals. As expected Eur/usd has crossed support level of 1.2837 and very near to major support level of 1.2796. No more important fundamentals for the rest of the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eur/usd continued corrective moves which r still below resistance level of 1.2896. Draghi's speech didnt have any significant impact. Technically, eur/usd reached major support zone on friday which is why bearish sentiments are weak. It is expected to stay above this support zone.

 

Usd/jpy is rangebound and is expected to continue its longterm trend which is bullish. Resistance level lies at 102.53

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eur/usd just came down to major support level of 1.2747. Looks like it has followed gbp/usd which came down due to weaker than expected data. Retracement is expected from this point.

usd/jpy is still range-bound. Longterm trend remains bullish and breakout is expected to occur in favor of bulls. Resistance is around 102.53.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Eur/usd just came down to major support level of 1.2747. Looks like it has followed gbp/usd which came down due to weaker than expected data. Retracement is expected from this point.

usd/jpy is still range-bound. Longterm trend remains bullish and breakout is expected to occur in favor of bulls. Resistance is around 102.53.

 

still bouncing potential on eur/usd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At the moment I have 14 years data so my research is based on that.

 

There are very few days when eur/usd moves as much as it moved on 10-july. Around 440 pip movement is rarely seen in eur/usd. But it is still unable to make in top 10 most-volatile-days list if we check past 14 year history.

An interesting fact is that top 10 most volatile days, in past 14 years, are in 2008. Nine of these 10 are in last three months of 2008. In to 50 most volatile days list, in past 14 years, 30 are in 2008.

 

Yesterday was 11th most volatile day in past 14 years.

 

FOMC meeting minutes and then Bernarke's speech caused this volatility in Eur/usd. Technically eur/usd found good support near 27-march low of 1.2752. At the moment, eur/usd has consolidated around 1.3100. For day traders, corrective moves are probable but trend is unclear so I will prefer to stay on hold.

 

Usd also lost to Jpy but not as much as it lost to Eur. Current fall can be a temporary fall. Hourly chart is giving range-bound indications.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
At the moment I have 14 years data so my research is based on that.

 

There are very few days when eur/usd moves as much as it moved on 10-july. Around 440 pip movement is rarely seen in eur/usd. But it is still unable to make in top 10 most-volatile-days list if we check past 14 year history.

An interesting fact is that top 10 most volatile days, in past 14 years, are in 2008. Nine of these 10 are in last three months of 2008. In to 50 most volatile days list, in past 14 years, 30 are in 2008.

 

Yesterday was 11th most volatile day in past 14 years.

 

FOMC meeting minutes and then Bernarke's speech caused this volatility in Eur/usd. Technically eur/usd found good support near 27-march low of 1.2752. At the moment, eur/usd has consolidated around 1.3100. For day traders, corrective moves are probable but trend is unclear so I will prefer to stay on hold.

 

Usd also lost to Jpy but not as much as it lost to Eur. Current fall can be a temporary fall. Hourly chart is giving range-bound indications.

 

I am turning bearish on the eurusd now, medium term.....expecting the 1.2750 area to break now and price to go towards 1.25/1.26........providing 1.34 area holds, I will look for reversal patterns

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am turning bearish on the eurusd now, medium term.....expecting the 1.2750 area to break now and price to go towards 1.25/1.26........providing 1.34 area holds, I will look for reversal patterns

 

1.2750... I dun see corrective moves going this much down. Even though usd data came better than expected but it still remained above 1.3000. I am expecting usd to weaken more against counterparts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1.2750... I dun see corrective moves going this much down. Even though usd data came better than expected but it still remained above 1.3000. I am expecting usd to weaken more against counterparts.

 

not this trip...........looking to consolidate around the current levels and to break below 1.2750 until September..........most likely this month, if not, first half of August...........after September to look for a break higher..........for good this time, much higher

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bearish sentiments were very strong before FOMC minutes but quick reversal has taken the pair well above support zone.

Future of usd will be more clear after U.S sales report and Bernarke's speech next week.

 

Usd weakness is clearly reflected in usd/jpy's performance last week. BoJ's policy remains unchanged so it didnt have much impact on jpy. It is currently trading below 100 and is expected to go below 98.00 next week.

1.png.ead0ffdc77fa21770310c750206747fc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eur/usd was expected to stay bearish until Retails sales data release which is to be released in another 15 minutes. Market has already gone below key support level of 1.3000 but directional movement is still unclear. I am staying on hold until retail sales data.

 

Usd/jpy has already crossed 100 level. There was a chance of bullish movement towards resistance level of 100.15 but not as sharp as it has moved. It is currently trading just below 100.50.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Eur/usd was expected to stay bearish until Retails sales data release which is to be released in another 15 minutes. Market has already gone below key support level of 1.3000 but directional movement is still unclear. I am staying on hold until retail sales data.

 

Usd/jpy has already crossed 100 level. There was a chance of bullish movement towards resistance level of 100.15 but not as sharp as it has moved. It is currently trading just below 100.50.

 

I am bearish on the pair, looking for 95 to come again

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After worse than expected retail sales data, usd continues to weaken against major counterparts especially against eur and jpy.

 

Even though eur/usd has been bullish since retail sales data release but it is still not enough to take it out of range-bound movements. Before bernarke's speech, on 18 july, we may see another bearish move towards 1.3000. But if pair crosses 1.3206 then major reversal is not expected.

 

I am bearish on the pair, looking for 95 to come again

 

It depends on bernarke's speech.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
After worse than expected retail sales data, usd continues to weaken against major counterparts especially against eur and jpy.

 

Even though eur/usd has been bullish since retail sales data release but it is still not enough to take it out of range-bound movements. Before bernarke's speech, on 18 july, we may see another bearish move towards 1.3000. But if pair crosses 1.3206 then major reversal is not expected.

 

 

 

It depends on bernarke's speech.

 

well, the entire forex market depends on what Ben says.......in the meantime, usdjpy pierced the 99 level to the downside........95 is coming.....looking for 1.30 in eurusd on the very short term time frame and for the freaking eurjpy to finaly break below 128.50......nothing too fancy.......just a couple of big figures here and there:helloooo:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

eur/usd dropped quickly after bernarke's speech over central bank policy. He said that bank may limit bond purchases by the end of current year. This quick drop was recovered within a couple of hours which reflects that market sentiments are strongly in favor of weaker usd.

 

Usd/jpy retraced after reaching 99.94 and is now expected to reach support level of 98.90. Major support lies at 11-july low of 98.28.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Usd showed strength after jobless claims data and bernarke speech. Overall movement remains range-bound. Bernarke told that stimulus program is essential for economic recovery and Fed plans to continue it for foreseeable future. He also added that lending rates will remain low.

 

Eur/usd was down after Bernarke's speech but retracement has taken it above 1.3100 again. Technically resistance lies at 1.3177 and then at 1.3206. Support lies at 1.3052 and then at 1.2994.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.