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Vinayak

S&P 500, Dow Jones, US Stocks and USD Related Currency Pairs

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I have had success with US major indices and equities along with currency pairs that features the USD. So I thought why don't I share them here with you. You guys probably remember from my other thread Tech Picks from the Valley Trader. I also have plenty of strategies that I am willing to share. I really love the Floor Trader Strategy for Futures Trading

 

Anyway, getting back to the subject of this thread. The sources I use are Forex Factory, DailyFX, Bloomberg/Reuters. I am not going to waste anytime here and will go ahead and share my first tip for you.

 

It is the US Advance Gross Domestic Product that will be announced as you start your day Wednesday. Then there is also the US FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate. The GDP is an important gauge of economic health as you guys already know. Watch out for the Advance GDP released Wednesday as it has the highest impact on the markets. This is because it is the first of the three versions (Advance, Preliminary and Final).

Look for a figure higher than 2.2% and then buy a Call on the Dow and one on the S&P 500.

 

As for the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate, they create a lot of two-way movement and I will wait until a clear direction can be perceived after the market settles down.

Edited by Vinayak

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Thx for sharing that Vinayak. You would be surprised how many traders don't share because they think they have the Holy Grail.

 

:cool:

 

Your welcome. I am more than happy to do so. Moreover, it really helps to share ideas and be able to compare and analyze. In the sense that there is a lot to gain by giving and receiving tips!:)

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NAV Analysis - Exxon Mobil Stock (XOM)

 

XOM which is currently trading at $90 a share appears to be overvalued according to the NAV analysis.

I did a conservative estimate which gave me a NAV of $66.40 per share. The more optimistic one gave me an NAV per share of $82.14. High growth rates should closely mirror reality since oil & natural gas reserves will only really start declining at least a century from now contrary to the complains of environmentalists. :)

 

It's the assumptions in the NAV calculation that cause the trouble as is the case with most valuation methods. :haha: We all know that the stock market often has a mind of its own and it can be very erratic and hard to predict. NAV analysis is a tool and its one of the tools we can utilize to gather something most market participants wouldn't necessarily know.

 

The NAV is a major valuation metric for energy companies and it is widely used to value uptream oil companies.

 

I know that XOM is an integrated major, but the graphic below which is directly taken from the 2011 XOM company annual report will verify why XOM stock is great for the NAV.

 

1066208-13593110613423016-Tim-Travis_origin.png

 

XOM 2011 Annual Report

 

As can be seen, XOM earns a large part of its revenue (>80%) in the upstream oil business.

 

The problem with the NAV is that, unlike the DCF, it focuses on asset depletion as is the case with most energy companies.

 

To the NAV's credit, it is very effective for sensitivity analysis to compare scenarios with different commodity prices or growth rates.

 

Exxon Mobil has been and always will be an oil & natural gas play

 

The NAV analysis was deceiving and it is really just one of the factors investors should consider when making investment decisions. What really struck me as attractive about Exxon Mobil is the growing EPS of 9.69. The EPS has soared 3.56% on average over the last five years and in the same period, the dividend has risen by 7.7%. :cool:

XOM-NAV-Conservative.xls

XOM-NAV-Optimistic.xls

Edited by Vinayak

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More on XOM...

 

XOM Balance Sheet

 

7159151-13594899420704224-Casacampo_origin.png

 

Note: All values in the table are in Millions

 

If you're a value investor, it is is the balance sheet that will be very encouraging. XOM has around $13B in cash and the equity has been rising with a 5-Year Average of 5.2%.

The other positive signs are no intangible assets in the books and the fact that the shares outstanding have been declining.

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I have a few more things I want to mention here on Exxon Mobil and specifically oil stocks and why investing in them is such a great idea for bulls.

 

The thing about Exxon is its been around for a long time and it is a long standing most valuable company before losing the top spot to Apple (AAPL). If you held Exxon for 40 years, you would have seen a 9.7% return in addition to a juicy 2.6% dividend. This past performance and the encouraging signs for the future of Exxon Mobil due to increasing energy demand and population growth mean that past performance could very well translate into the future.

 

And talking about past performance: I talked about the last 40 years and now I want to mention that the oil price has gone up from $15/barrel to $90/barrel. That is incredible and is a factor of around 6.

 

But since oil and oil stocks are such a hedge against inflation, we must look at how the USD has fared. The USD has also seen severe inflation with a factor of 5.91 over the last 4 decades.

 

Nonetheless, Exxon is a buy and will continue to be so until the new century dawns. The environmentalists have got it all wrong. Forbes has estimated that oil production will only halve 50 years from now on and the same will happen to natural gas at least a century from now.

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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is proving to be a good buy for bulls

 

caps_advanced.chart?TIME_SPAN=1Y&RESOLUTION=D&SYMBOL_US=SBUX&ID_NOTATION=&IND_1=volume&CLOSE_LINE=0&TYPE=mountain&AVG1=100&AXIS_SCALE=lin&ID_BENCH1=&ID_BENCH2=&IND_2=MACD&IND_4=

 

The stock price is above the 100-day MA (moving average) and the MACD confirms the upward trend.

 

I think any price from now till $56ish is a good time to buy for this stock that will appreciate as a result of Starbucks recent sales and EPS announcements that beat analyst expectations. These consumer discretionary stocks might be the sector to turn to with the S&P 500 quickly running out of gas.

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Heavy week for US corporate earnings

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) rallied 15% over the last week after an impressive earnings report. The upcoming week will be dominated by the retail sector with earnings report releases from the Dollar Tree (DLTR), Macy's (M), Sears (SHLD), Best Buy (BBY), JC Penney (JCP), Saks (SKS), Gap (GPS), Kohl's (KSS), Lowe's(LOW) and Target (TGT).

The big retail sector releases means that its going to be a bumpy road for US indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones and it would be best not to do options trading on them in my opinion.

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S&P 500: Bull speed ahead!

 

I am thinking of a monthly call option on the SPY and at the same time I want to be long on the SPXU. If you haven't heard of the SPXU, it basically works by tracking the daily performance of the S&P 500 and is three times the inverse (-3x) of the index.

 

When doing an analysis of the S&P 500, it is plain to see that the fundamentals are great. The problem is that a lot of speculators feel that this BULL is old news.

 

The real issue right now is the sequestration cuts that are scheduled for this Friday, March 1. It is hard to see the S&P growing at 2% or more if the spending cuts do take effect. Ben Bernanke in his comments to the Senate Banking Committee in Washington stressed the importance of continuing the stimulus (there were rumors that the stimulus program would be cut back) and also warned lawmakers not to go through with the spending cuts planned to take place on March 1.

 

The good thing about Bernanke's recent remarks is that it gives bulls hope. It is quite well-known in the financial markets that stimulus programs drive stock markets higher as was seen with the FTSE 100 and the DAX last week after central banks in the Euro zone committed to generous stimulus programs.

 

Technically Speaking

5207691_13619067759621_rId4.jpg

 

5207691_13619067759621_rId7.jpg

 

The charts above paint two different pictures. Going by the 10-year chart in the top panel it can be seen how much the S&P 500 has gained with it reaching a 6-year high of 1531 just last week.

But even with the drop in the chart on the sub panel, there is the fact that the index has soared for 8 successive Fridays with the previous Friday as well. This goes a long way in demonstrating investor's confidence. :cool:

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Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is in the midst of a turnaround that CEO Meg Whitman has talked about extensively. I know that HPQ has been winning the war against its long-time rival Dell (DELL), and I did find HP to be undervalued, but let's take a look at the tech giant's liquidity.

 

When a firm has strong liquidity ratios, it portrays to an investor that it has the cash reserves to fund growth in the future. For a PC maker like HP that is looking to shift successfully to mobile, this is absolutely essential. But the liquidity numbers that I came across for HP are not very encouraging. Keep in mind, however, that this is just one of the many ways to analyze a stock.

 

A lot of the metrics that I have here for your convenience is paid material on other sites. For instance, stock research website YCharts requires you to be a Gold or Pro Platinum subscriber to get figures like the ones highlighted in this article that go back so many years. I've always wanted to ensure that investors got some value out of my articles and I hope this post accomplishes that to the fullest.

 

Read the rest of the article here: Hewlett-Packard: Liquidity Analysis Paints A Bearish Picture

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I am a Professional Trader who makes on average £5000 a week by using simple strategies. I have developed many strategies in the past. Trading is a risk and people do lose money but if you know how to mitigate risk by having a good trading plan implemented with a good strategy, you can make a fortune. I currently teach people how to trade Binary for free. If this something that interest you email me on my.mail.alin@gmail.com

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Hi,

 

Instead of sharing email at this point, you can share your methods in our forums. This is because we don't want any type of private sales on these forums.

 

I am a Professional Trader who makes on average £5000 a week by using simple strategies. I have developed many strategies in the past. Trading is a risk and people do lose money but if you know how to mitigate risk by having a good trading plan implemented with a good strategy, you can make a fortune. I currently teach people how to trade Binary for free.

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S&P 500 closes down on Cyprus, Dow ends flat

 

The S&P fell for the third straight day after Cypriot lawmakers rejected a bank deposit tax proposal. The S&P 500 dipped 3.75 points, or 0.24 percent, to finish unofficially at 1548.35.

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These are some Bloomberg updates that I thought would be highly relevant here. Check out my thread: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/15950-bloomberg-updates.html#post176979

 

1. Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. Rose Less Than Forecast Last Week to 336,000

 

2. Congress Clears Spending Plan for FY2013, Averting Shutdown

 

3. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March Rises to 2 From -12.5

 

4. Sales of Previously Owned Homes in U.S. Climb to 4.9M Annualized Rate, a Three-Year High

 

The weekend ahead will be important as this week we see continuously escalating situation with Cyprus and it is possible that this weekend we will see some important changes. I think Monday will be the most important day for the next week trading and for now everything is possible. No one prediction could be sure!

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Exxon Mobil: Profitability Analysis

 

I have been analyzing big oil stocks that offer a good return on investment. My analysis here is based on the profitability ratios in the financial statements of Exxon Mobil (XOM) over the last five years.

 

When a firm has strong profitability ratios, it portrays to an investor that it provides a good return on his or her investment. The profitability numbers that I came across for Exxon were very encouraging. Keep in mind, however, that this is just one of the many ways to analyze a stock.

 

Recently, Exxon Mobil was surpassed as the world's largest publicly-traded oil company by Russia's Rosneft (OJSCY.OB). Oil and gas companies keep the world running and will do so for many more years. There are none better than Exxon which manages hundreds of billions of dollars of capital and generates excellent returns for its investors.

 

A profitability analysis of a company involves looking at a class of financial metrics to determine a firm's capacity to generate profitable sales from the resources it has. Typically, higher ratio numbers translate to a higher investment value for the firm.

 

The income statement numbers are far superior to its closest rivals, Chevron (CVX) and BP (BP). Exxon's figures for net income, sales and income before interest and income tax expense are double what it is for Chevron, BP and even Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A).

XOM is up 3.5% over the last three months and it's getting close to its 52-week high of $93.67.

Read the rest of the article: Exxon Mobil: Profitability Analysis - Seeking Alpha

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Royal Dutch Shell: A Look At Profitability

 

When a firm has strong profitability ratios, it portrays to an investor that it provides a good return on his or her investment. The profitability numbers that I came across for Royal Dutch Shell weren't the best. Keep in mind, however, that this is just one of the many ways to analyze a stock.

 

Royal Dutch Shell's dividend yield is roughly double that of industry giants Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) and Chevron Corporation (CVX). But the trouble that Shell is having is finding new reserves. Shell's proved reserves were 13.6B barrels of oil equivalent in 2012, down from 14.25B in 2011.

 

The declining operating profit margin is rather concerning and energy investors will most likely prefer Chevron or Exxon as they have stronger numbers in this regard.

 

The net profit margin has also stayed below the industry average in the last five years.

The Return on Investment ratios are also not as impressive as the rest of the industry, but Shell's closest rivals like BP Plc (BP) and TOTAL S.A. (TOT) have similar values. I must mention here that Chevron and Exxon are far ahead in this avenue too.

 

The Return on Equity [ROE] ratio is arrived at by dividing the net income by the shareholders' equity. The ROE has gone up from 2010 to 2011, but then declined from 2011 to 2012. All the major integrated oil companies have not been able to replicate the impressive 2008 levels.

 

In the short to mid-term horizon, Shell is a short idea.

 

Read more here: Royal Dutch Shell: A Look At Profitability - Seeking Alpha

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Short idea: SPX

 

Stocks edged up at the open on Thursday, following a steep drop in the previous session.

 

I am long term bullish on the S&P 500 and the DJIA, but today might be a day where I might look to buck the trend and short the SPX.

 

The leading Economic Indicators Index for March in the US suddenly fell by 0.1%. Additionally, the Philly Fed Index is at 1.3 for April.

 

Furthermore, we have started off the day with Bank of America (BAC) missing earnings estimates: Q1 EPS of 0.20 was lower than the EST. $0.23.

 

Nonetheless, I am long term bullish because the macro data out of the US has been generally good with Housing Starts rising 7% in March to a 1.04M Annual Rate. Moreover, US Consumer Prices fell 0.2% in March due the cheaper gasoline prices.

 

However, it was also interesting to note that the IMF has cut the global growth outlook to 3.3% and the organization has strongly advised Europe to use aggressive monetary policy.

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S&P 500 - Bullish on the nearer term

 

There was a lot of negativity that drove the selling last week, but still it was not enough to break the long term up trend of the S&P 500. Nonetheless, the index did hit a resistance level.

 

Technical analysis shows that in the long term it might actually turn a little bearish because my indicators are weakening. It is indeed interesting to note that the last few times this occurred selling followed for 5-8 weeks.

 

The S&P could then fall as far as 1500 or even a bit lower before hitting a support level despite its recent bullish turn. The good thing for bulls is that the appreciation will persist for the near term but could change in the mid-term.

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US Stocks advance at the open on strong jobless claims report and ECB rate cut. Dow adds 102 points; S&P adds 14 points

 

The job market is continuing to improve with jobless claims dropping to 324K which leaves the number at a 5-year low. This has gone against the expectations of economists and it has driven the US indices to record highs early and I fully expect the bullish trend to continue.

What is more, even the four-week moving average that is checked to offset the volatility has also declined.

 

There will be more positive economic data out on Friday with the Labor Department scheduled to release a monthly jobs report which market analysts expect will show that the US economy added 140,000 jobs in the month of April which is a big climb from the March 88,000 figure.

 

Time for some calls on the US indices and to buy a few large cap stocks and Dow Stocks.

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Question: What is "Supply" with regards to the stock market?

 

Answer: It's the total number of shares outstanding.

 

And what is "Demand"? It's the need and wants to buy shares by investors.

 

Right now, supply is falling. This is both a good thing and a bad thing.

 

The good part is that firms have huge profit margins and are using their excess cash to buy back shares. Shares outstanding is declining. When companies with $100 billion in cash like Apple buy back shares, this brings down supply for the big institutional investors, etc.

 

Another advantage: When supply decreases, price increases. This is why the stock market right now is at all-time highs.

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US economy: Like a see-saw!

 

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Source: Investoraide

 

If you've been looking at the US economic indicators, you can glean that they have been rather up and down. Wall Street takes a big plunge and then we have the S&P and the Dow hitting record highs at Friday's close.

 

I know I've been highlighting the positive macro data and being the objective poster that I am I thought I'd take you through some of the negative stuff as well.

 

Private jobs increased by the smallest margin in seven months according to the April ADP survey. Moreover, the Institute of Supply Management enlightens us that manufacturing sector growth is slowing and could very well start contracting. There was also the Commerce Department with its report that construction spending has fallen a level not seen since last August.

 

Even though consumer spending and incomes were up, MasterCard sales gave an interesting insight: US credit card activity is down significantly. Moreover, Visa's quarterly credit card activity has also fallen sharply.

 

There was also domestic auto sales that is at a 6-month low. Policymakers at the Fed are looking at revising their $85B bond buying program depending on the US economic outlook.

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Investing in small and mid cap stocks may be a good idea because traders are then not competing for information against massive mutual funds and hedge funds that do everything they can to win by often cheating the system (manipulative trading, high frequency trading, insider trading, special access to secondaries, etc).

 

The key is I think to invest in long-term demographic trends that you believe in.

 

Interestingly, I have found that microcaps tend to outperform large caps over the long haul.

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US Economic Outlook

 

The FOMC will keep buying $80 billion every month in securities. What is more, they promise to inform us prior to stopping.

 

Earnings have been fairly good and the labor market is recovering steadily and is back to where it once was prior to the recession. Housing data has been on an uptrend and now there was the unexpected gain in retail sales that is highly positive.

 

When there are better job numbers and higher sales, it is great for the US economy. What is needed now is for the US to keep this momentum going and then more people will buy in.

 

Keep the bullish sentiment going. You have more than sufficient reason to do so.

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US Indices: Near Term Pullback

 

The big news out of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress and other speeches is that he and the other members said more QE is needed. I tend to agree and that is what is holding the indices at such elevated levels. It has also been responsible for better macro data and this can be seen across the globe.

 

The Nikkei has been on a roll and we saw Japan's Q1 GDP rises to an annualized 3.5% vs the estimated 2.7%.

 

As far as the US is concerned, there has been a lot of varied data. The US April Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.6% at the same time that housing Starts in the US fell 16.5% in April to a 853,000 rate. Then we had the US May Philadelphia Fed Factory Index at -5.2 vs the 1.3 estimated value.

 

Its pretty unpredictable right now, but I think this pullback is just a blip in a long term uptrend.

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S&P 500: 1620 is a near term support level

 

US market data will get a big lift off next week after the slow week we have experienced so far. The employment bundle consisting of unemployment, ADP Employment, NFP and weekly jobless claims is what a lot of traders will be looking forward to. The forecast is that the recent rallies will be reflected in the values. Any misses will then see the markets decline even further.

 

The technical charts reveal that 1630 is a near-term support level. The long-term support level is 1600. Option traders can go for puts on the S&P 500 with end of the week expirations.

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    • Thanks for your suggestions man!! Our own decision surely makes us or breaks us. Thanks once again, buddy.
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