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PFtrader

Point and Figure Method - Trading Journal

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Welcome! Here is my trading journal with my:

 

technical analysis,

point and figure charting,

market analysis,

sector analysis,

Richard D. Wyckoff method analysis,

relative strength analysis,

and inner thoughts and feelings.

 

In my trading I have been using point and figure and the Richard D. Wyckoff method for many years now. I usually do top-down analysis by first identifying the market setup, I then do sector analysis and relative strength analysis to find the strongest or weakest stocks in the strongest or weakest sectors.

 

In my investing I combine fundamental analysis with the above and I use a few exceptional market timing signals for longer term bullishness or bearishness. These have showed to be far more accurate than my own feelings, so I’d rather trust the professional quantitative analysts than my own emotions. These signals are also used in my shorter term trading.

 

I will start this trading journal where I gather my thoughts and post my trading ideas. Instead of writing this down in my paper journal book, I’d might as well post it here if anyone is interested in reading.

 

These are my ideas, and you are invited to follow me. I like to exchange ideas and learn from my readers as well.

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Here is a standard Point and Figure analysis / Wyckoff Technical analysis setup for AAPL that I have been trading with success this past year.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=PWB8

 

This is what I usually look at in my technical trading: P&F chart of the stock. Bar chart of the stock. A P&F chart of the market (S&P 500). The Relative Strength versus the market. Usually I don't do RS analysis of the sectors. I get a fairly good view on the strong and weak sectors to avoid just by viewing their charts. As long as we are stronger than market, we're usually golden.

 

So what about the analysis of AAPL?

We are in a down trend with some kind of support at around 580. We already broke the 650 support. (And I got stopped out.) We went back to lick it (Wyckoff test of ice, guys). Markets seem to want to go south, but is hesitating a bit. AAPL is short-term weaker than the market which is generally not a good sign. AAPL has been a market leader for a long time, and when the market leaders stop going up, normally the rest of the pack will follow it sideways or down.

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Let's have a look at URI, a stock I have been interested in a long time. Nice fundamentals and all.

 

We have quite a nice setup. We had a strong up move on heavy volume over the 37-38 area, gapped up even. Had a pullback/flat for a few days on much lower volume and then shot up again on heavier volume.

 

Another pullback/breather now, let's see the future.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=IYWH

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ECL is another stock on my list.

 

I really like the uptrend it is showing on the daily and weekly point & figure charts. The candlestick charts shows the latest strong upmove on high volume and BIG bars. Somebody really wants to own this company, but taking a breather at the previous resistance, now acting as support. A pullback to the side of the creek - for using the Wyckoff trader lingo.

 

Daily Point & figure chart

http://www.paf.am/?di=K3JL

 

with weekly point and figure chart:

http://www.paf.am/?di=65MA

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Today I have four strong stocks. These are in the Utilities group that has performed well and been a market leader for a period.

 

First a technical analysis of AME

here we broke through the resistance at around 35.50. Now we seems to have a quick pullback on lower volume and I would not be surprised to see us head up if markets want to go higher from here.

 

We can notice a nice wyckoff spring at the end of the trading range before the breakout. For Spring traders this was just screaming out to buy. Springs are something I have always had trouble with, although they are a very reliable signal. With some hindsight in technical analysis they are a great confirmation in my opinion.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=K6ZJ

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Next technical analysis is DE - Deere & Company. These guys make tractors!

 

Tractors are apparently selling well, because we are breaking out of every resistance point there is. The point and figure 45 degree down trend line, and any minor resistance on the way. Now we had a slight pullback, a trading range above the resisitance "creek" on diminishing volume.

 

Also here we can see the Wyckoff spring in first part of october. You had to be cool to enter on it, but you had also been happy with your profits.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=XVM8

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Then we have PHM. Never heard of em...

 

PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding and financial services businesses primarily in the United States.

 

Alrighty then, homebuilders. People need homes right?

 

Point and figure analysis - old resistance became support in the 17 level, now we are at resistance, or double top. We have a major diagonal uptrend in the bar chart. Strong.

 

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=IELW

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Then some Rock n roll:

 

ROK

 

The last three days have been exceptional.

 

The formation leading to that crazy breakout is quite strange with lower lows and lower highs. That's what some people would call a flag. Chart patterns were my introduction to price action analysis and trading. From that I moved to Richard D Wyckoff's work, and later simplified my own analysis with heavier focus on Point and Figure and confirming analysis on bar charts or candle stick charts.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=UY99

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I just had to include this one also. SPRT. High risk - high reward?

 

I normally do not like these companies that are driven by news, but this pharmaceutical company apparently had a drug approved or something and the news made it blow through the roof. Now we are in a pullback after that news, and perhaps at a place where we might see a reversal.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=E6D8

 

About halfway of closing the gap. Normally a Wyckoff trader would consider the half-way point from top to bottom of pullback. When we're having a gap, we must look at it another way. Gaps want to be filled. That is one of their only reason for living.... A strong stock will not fill its gap, but it still wants to be tested. If we don't fill the gap, we are dealing with a strong stock.

 

Now, the point & figure chart just looks like a column of X and a column of O. Interesting to not when we're talking about half-way points - the column of X is 44 boxes, and the column of O is 22 boxes - and for those of you that know basic math, that is half.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=9XDO

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First of all,

 

sorry the post yesterday should have been SRPT and not SPRT - two different securities.

 

The one in my pics is SRPT.

 

Ever bought or sold the wrong stock? I have. You feel like an idiot when you do. It happens

to everyone once in a while I guess.

 

 

Anyway....

 

 

We had an up move in the markets. Dare we believe that it will continue, or did we see a reversal bar yesterday?

A "peek-a-boo" in the resistance zone at 1420? Will we jump into that zone or was it the last time we saw these levels

for some time?

 

Looking at the Spiders SPY.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=8EU3

 

The 5 box size says we're approaching a resistance zone above 145.

The 1 box size says we're heading down through the support at 142.

 

I wrote a little poem for you:

 

What do you do,

when you are in doubt?

When you don't have a clue?

You had better stay out!

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Is it safe to say that the general market does not like the elected president?

No confidence in the president's abilities to solve the financial trouble?

 

Is it safe to say that the market had a terrible day?

 

We officially jumped into the deep water, with a big splash. Huge bar, huge volume. Force.

 

I expect lower prices, with a test of the new resistance zone at some point.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=SDGG

 

We can confidently start looking at some short candidates.

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Yes we're heading downwards. The volume has picked up significantly - what I would call heavy selling.

 

The point and figure chart shows two levels of support at 137, the previous resistance level and a minor

45 degree trendline - both at the same level of 137. Another 45 degree trendline below that might

be the next support somewhere close to 134, where we also have a support level on the point and figure

plottings.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=IOCY

 

Looking at the barchart we can see that recently up-moves have had smaller and more bara, while

the down moves have been on larger and fewer bars - this shows that the line of least resistance have been down.

Likewise we can also note that the volume has been heavier on the down moves.

 

The last two days have had much heavier volume than any other bar lately.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=8INT

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An interesting thing to note, perhaps without much importance, is that the areas marked with the gray background are quite similar, while the first one is a little bit larger.

 

Counting the final down moves in these areas, in the first one we had 10 Os down, in the current one we currently have 7. If we would have symmetric down moves from the symmetric areas, we would see a down move of 8 Os to 138 level. Close to the support we identified in the previous post.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=3ZLB

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Sundays are good for doing general market analysis before markets open on Monday. I'd rather take Friday afternoon off, and do it on Sundays instead.

 

S&P500 has been weaker than Nasdaq, on a long term scale - Big chart on the right is the Relative Strength of SPY and QQQ.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=7TP7

 

This is normal. Now that we are on our way down I am assuming technology based Nasdaq will perform worse.

 

We did have an up day on Friday - but not very big, more of a breather. But still a heavy reversal with a close on the low end of the range. Tried to go up, closed down - if we can't go up, we will probably go down.

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Facebook stock technical analysis

 

Assuming Nasdaq will perform worse in a bear market, it is safe to assume FB will perform badly as it has since the IPO. Action has been terrible and I feel for the people who bought there and then on promises. Who dares touching this one now. There are some technical points to consider which can provide for good setups. A break out below the 18 level would mean to me that we are heading down again, a confirming pullback on low volume for added confidence. The action in the current trading range is quite erratic. I don't see real stopping action, more a low base type of pattern.

 

http://www.paf.am/?di=PKKU

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  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 24th January 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th January 2019.



      FX News Today 10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp at 0.216% in opening trade. Treasury yields also fell back from overnight highs and are now down -0.2 bp at 2.739%, while JGB yields remain up 0.8 bp at 0.001%. Stock markets mostly managed to move higher in Asia overnight (excluding the Nikkei which closed with a loss of 0.09%) and DAX futures are also up, while US futures are narrowly mixed and the FTSE 100 future is swinging between gains and losses. Brexit developments remain in focus, but while in the UK officials continue to struggle to find a consensus on the way forward, the focus in the Eurozone turns to the ECB meeting today. Rates are widely expected to remain on hold and the guidance little changed, but Draghi is likely to sound much more cautious on the growth and inflation outlook, which should underpin stock markets. Norges Bank is also expected to hold rates steady and the data calendar focuses on Eurozone PMI readings, which are expected to show further weakness in the preliminary release for January. US earnings reports have helped to underpin risk appetite in recent days, while the ongoing government shutdown is preventing timely data releases and leaving investors focused on trade talk developments, company news and in Europe, Brexit jitters. Charts of the Day

      Main Macro Events Today EU Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – The Services PMI is expected to come out at 51.5 in January, compared to 51.2 in December. This is expected to have a positive impact on the Composite PMI, which is expected to rise to 51.4 compared to 51.1 in December. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have remained at the same levels as in December. World Economic Forum at Davos – The third day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. ECB Interest Rate Decision – ECB is not expected to proceed with any changes in the interest rate yet as it is has just started evaluating the effects from the end of QE in December. However, communication could provide important information regarding the future path of policy. US Jobless Claims – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise to 220k compared to 213k last week, while Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to decline slightly to 1.735M, compared to 1.737M last week. US Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – Reductions in PMIs are expected in all sectors, in conjunction with the overall perception of a slowdown in the US, and the ongoing government shutdown. Support and Resistance Levels
       

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Actions for the 23rd.  Hugely frustrating day, picked my spots but my timing was off.  I don't seem able to find a trade that will survive long enough for me to manage and test my patience, that in itself is testing me right now.
    • Actions for the 22nd.  I seem to be on a bad run, I'm really struggling with the opening minutes of the trades I'm taking and then get sucked into a little over trading.
    •   Date : 23rd January 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2019.



      FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are down from overnight highs, but still up 0.7 bp at 2.746%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.004%. Stock markets remained cautious during the Asian session. The Bank of Japan held policy steady, as expected, while further reducing its outlook for inflation. The resulting weakness in the Yen didn’t help stock markets and Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.60% and -0.14% respectively. The Hang Seng is also down -0.04%, despite mainland China markets initially moving higher as China’s central bank pumped liquidity into the banking system once again. Still, the measures are also a sign that officials are nervous about the slowdown in the economy and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.24% and -0.13%. The bank offered around 258 bln Yuan (USD 38 bln) to banks through its medium term lending tool. Markets continue to question the progress in the US-Sino trade talks, even though White House adviser Lawrence Kudlow said that the trade talks are still on and the story about cancelled preparatory meetings was “not true, there was never any meeting. We are moving toward negotiations.” The negotiations next week will be “very, very important” and “determinative”. Meanwhile, there are the first signs of a possible way out of the US government shutdown. Markets remain easily spooked, but appear to have already priced in a lot of risk last year and US stock futures are moving higher after yesterday’s sell off. Oil prices are trading at USD 53.27 per barrel. Charts of the Day

      Main Macro Events Today Canadian Retail Sales – After Wholesale Sales plummeted yesterday, Canadian Retail Sales are expected to have also declined by 0.4% m/m, with core Retail Sales (ex autos) expected to have declined by 0.6%. World Economic Forum at Davos –The second day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The index is expected to have remained at a sub-zero level, standing at -2 after the -8 in the December release. Support and Resistance Levels
       

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Eyes The 109.88 Resistance Zone And Beyond USDJPY eyes the 109.88 resistance zone beyond as it looks to resume its upside pressure. On the upside, resistance comes in at 110.00 level. A turn above here will turn attention to the 110.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 111.00 level if the earlier resistance is invalidated out. The next resistance resides at the 111.50. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 109.50 level where a break will target the 109.00 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 108.50 level and then lower the 108.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further upside pressure on corrective recovery.  
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