Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Soultrader

[Trends, Balance Areas, and Stop Placements]

Recommended Posts

Please Read First:

 

"The stronger the trend, the greater the distance between successive balance areas. As the auction ages, this distance decreases. In the late stages of a trend, price may continue to rise but the next balance area will often be resting on top of or within the prior, lower balance area."

 

- James Dalton from Markets In Profile -

 

CLICK HERE TO VIEW VIDEO

 

 

Charts created by Tradestation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm also playing around with a new concept on stop loss placement on Trends. Here is another technique.

 

From Don Jones's book on Value-Based Power Trading (pg 139), he uses a more longer term technique for position traders (minimum of 10 days).

 

1) There is no target price at the beginning of a trend. The stop-loss price for a trend is 1.5 octants from entry.

2) The initial stop-loss point is maintained until the first node forms.

3) After one or more nodes have formed, the trade is exited when price returns to the mid-point of the prior node.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm also playing around with a new concept on stop loss placement on Trends. Here is another technique.

 

From Don Jones's book on Value-Based Power Trading (pg 139), he uses a more longer term technique for position traders (minimum of 10 days).

 

1) There is no target price at the beginning of a trend. The stop-loss price for a trend is 1.5 octants from entry.

2) The initial stop-loss point is maintained until the first node forms.

3) After one or more nodes have formed, the trade is exited when price returns to the mid-point of the prior node.

 

Winsum : are there any indicators to see does octants on a chart, would be interesting to have a visual aid to follow does octants... wich sounds pretty logic to create a trailing sistem... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have always had "a problem" with the concept of risk/reward as defined by stop size vs. target size. The CW (which I think is wrong) is that a lower risk/reward is "better". In other words, risking 20 pts to make 10 pts is not an intelligent trade.

 

I think IN GENERAL that has merit. However, I have several setups that set a smaller initial target than the stop, and thus would have a "risk/reward" ratio of 2 or greater. Now, that is somewhat problematic since I scale out, but the point is the same.

 

What matters in addition to (so called) risk/reward in stop distance is the positive expectancy of the setup.

 

If you have a setup that has 90% winning trades, with a 3/1 risk/reward ratio (in terms of stops to target distance), is that a "bad" risk/reward.

 

Clearly not. If you crunch the #'s that trade has high positive expectancy.

 

I agree that there are a # of concepts about stops and none is necessarily better. I like to consider the average true range of the timeframe I am trading because I find that using a # related to that metric is going to generally keep you from getting stopped out by "noise".

 

Good video, btw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In regards to the octant thang.

 

Most charting programs have a Fib tool that will draw lines at ratios of a outlined range. The classic #'s are 38.2% 50% etc.

 

However, if your charting package allows you to use user modifiable percentages, then you just need to set the retracement at multiples of 12.5%

 

.125 is 1/8 so, that will draw lines at the octants

 

it's kind a down and dirty technique, but it works

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, I have a TPO Overlay Demand Curve that I use to see the market profile structure but I do the Octet calculation by hand because my programming skill is limited.

 

The ODC allows me to see the previous Balance Area nodes and its POC, so I know where the stop losses are likely to be located for trend traders.

 

The interpretation is that the break-out Trend has come back into Value and a Stopping Point of the Trend has been created and the market will now transition from Imbalance back into Balance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure, prior to last week, most ppl would agree the market was in an Uptrend.

 

If you bring up a TPO chart on the Russell 2000 from 12/7/06 to 2/23/07, you can see a node forming on the top of the uptrend. From 831.90 to 821.30, the node was developing into a bell curve profile. If the uptrend was going to continue, it would break out of this balance area and continue its move up.

 

There was a node below that and the POC was at 817.60. If price comes back into the POC of the prior node, this would be the uptrend has stopped and trend traders should be alerted and have their protective stop losses in place. They will no longer be bias long.

 

People who were pullback buyers on 2/27/04 got clobbered because the other time frame buyers were no longer bias long. The price has gapped down below the prior node's midpoint.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Soultrader,

 

Thank you for this interesting concept. I am trying to get a sense of how to define "balance areas"... Is there an indicator that would help outline or define the balance areas or would you explain a little further what the criteria is for a balanced area?

 

thanks

Jennifer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest cooter

People who were pullback buyers on 2/27/04 got clobbered because the other time frame buyers were no longer bias long.

 

Yep, and if you set your stops around the GAPPs (generally accepted pivot points), look for them to get hit more often than not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Soultrader,

 

Thank you for this interesting concept. I am trying to get a sense of how to define "balance areas"... Is there an indicator that would help outline or define the balance areas or would you explain a little further what the criteria is for a balanced area?

 

thanks

Jennifer

 

Im not sure about indicators but look for congestion areas. In other words, the markets will move and then take a breather. Trend > range > trend > range.

 

How would you define a congestion area? Its really up to you... might be when price touches the same S&R twice, when price rotates back and forth at a reference forth, etc...

 

I dont use strict rules for what defines a balance area or not. I just eyeball it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A Balance Area will look like a Normal Distribution.

 

If you show the picture below to a Market Profile trader, they will say the market is in "Balance". It's has a Normal Distribution profile and it closed back into middle of the chart at the end of the day.

 

MP traders don't need indicator to see balance area, they can just eyball it.

 

It just takes screen time to be able to recognize it.

Balance.thumb.png.4ee500e14d57d1854841b299ad27ea95.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi...

 

Would it be possible to look at the volume distribution for each bar and then to use a consolidation or cluster of trading within a tight range with several consecutive bar to begin to identify a base?

 

I guess I am trying to think of a way to build an indicator that will map out bases. Does that make sense or am I going down the wrong path?

 

thanks

Jennifer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It sounds good, test it out to see if it will work for you.

 

The only exception to your concept on how to identify a Balance with using "tight range" don't fit. "Tight Range" are begging for a Break-out and are not a stable balance area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WinSum....

 

So I am not sure I understand what you are saying... Is a "Balance Area" seen as a stable area or is it seen as a break out begging to happen? I would think that both would perhaps be true since essentially every breakout comes from a balance area or some sort... correct?

 

To begin to define what is a balance area we have to define it from a trend or just basic "chop"... so my thought would be to define it as a tight range of consolidated volume/trading over a given period of time. Does that sound ok so far?

 

Jennifer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WinSum....

 

So I am not sure I understand what you are saying... Is a "Balance Area" seen as a stable area or is it seen as a break out begging to happen? I would think that both would perhaps be true since essentially every breakout comes from a balance area or some sort... correct?

Jennifer

 

Correct, Market goes from Balance to Imbalance and back into Balance and then back to Imbalance again.

 

I use Market Profile to see developing Balanced Area, if your indicator is similiar, then I would agree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
WinSum....

 

So I am not sure I understand what you are saying... Is a "Balance Area" seen as a stable area or is it seen as a break out begging to happen? I would think that both would perhaps be true since essentially every breakout comes from a balance area or some sort... correct?

 

To begin to define what is a balance area we have to define it from a trend or just basic "chop"... so my thought would be to define it as a tight range of consolidated volume/trading over a given period of time. Does that sound ok so far?

 

Jennifer

 

Yes Jennifer, that could also be called Coils or rectangles, now that is derived from price action itself, I think the "term" balance area cand be used also for being inside vah and val.... so in that case you will be monitoring the break outside vah and val.... not a price action coil.... cheers Walter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.