Week 7

[steveshutts 10]

Morning guys, hope you all had a good weekend.

 

Cable has reacted off that 9450 zone, which houses strong support and the 78% fib, visible on the 240 chart. Price has been in a strong uptrend through the Asian market and is currently re-acting off the 9568 area, which is Fridays asian low, 38% fib from the move down off 9730 and roughly 61% retracement of fridays move. It is also the half prime and previous support zone now acting as resistance.

The 240 trend is down so will be looking for short opportunities up to 9600. If we see a clean break of 9600 then i will be changing my bias. Price may just continue up this morning, we have gbp figures out at 09:30 as well. Short opps may present themselves if price fails to break the asian top at the London open but i will wait and see.

 

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Hi Steve,

 

The 1.9600 also harbours the Monthly Pivot adding to the weight up there.

 

Price hit the 78.6 barrier this morning into pre-London trade from Fridays high-low numbers, which is where one of the guys have shorted it from earlier. He's looking for a snap back towards the 1.95 Big Figure with a view on scaling down towards Fridays lows.

 

[steveshutts 10]

Morning Anna.

 

Thats a great trade. It was the one i was looking for as well. Saw the lower high on the 5 min chart, which stopped at the half prime. Wanted a bit more confirmation, which was probably my mistake there. Was waiting for a nice hammer or doji to short after the low was broken but never got it. Could have taken entry off the 1min but didn't.

Its all about timing, and my timing for this trade was well off. That gets me sometimes, i see a trade that i want to take, develop before my eyes and then i miss the opportunity. Still, i know better than to jump on it now, so thats one important lesson that i have learnt!

 

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

So, having missed the prime opp, i must now wait for a pullback of the asian low breakout with hopefully a second chance of shorting this back down to fridays low. However, i want to see a pullback register on the 15 min chart before considering a trade.

[steveshutts 10]

Forgot about the monthly pivot. I now have them up on my whiteboard, with the weekly but must admit, i still forget to look at them. :o

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yes, that's where he snapped it - at those lower top 5m neutral bars. That's all the confirmation we look for generally when price pumps & fails at that Fib, especially if it's also confirming a higher timeframe failure.

 

Can be a tad risk(ier) at those levels, but the stop/risk placement stacked up, with plenty of time to test it into the London Open.

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

So, having missed the prime opp, i must now wait for a pullback of the asian low breakout with hopefully a second chance of shorting this back down to fridays low. However, i want to see a pullback register on the 15 min chart before considering a trade.

 

Well, we're still floating inside a demand zone all the way down to Fridays low.

 

So, this channel could well get supported. I guess we'll soon unearth the bias as London gathers pace. PPI will no doubt whip up some interest if the actuals get kicked against consensus.

 

The Franc has triggered a decent entry above the S1 thru 2470 off the 30/5min bars? Nice higher low demand for that pair!

[steveshutts 10]

Yeah, i can see that now. I need to be more agressive when i see these opps. I think that often in these scenarios, when you area at key stalling zones, you need to get in at the first signs of failure. Awaiting too much confirmation can often result in missing the boat.

You then get into danger territory of wishing that you had of taken that earlier signal and you start looking for other signals to get you in. You take a less advantageous trade, which does not have the value that the original trade had and you probably end up getting stop hunted as your stop is ill-placed.

Its a case of waiting now we may get another opp, we may not??

15 printed a hammer at hourly swing point at 9485. Will probably wait for data release at 09:30 now, no point taking anything on before then.

[steveshutts 10]

The Franc has triggered a decent entry above the S1 thru 2470 off the 30/5min bars? Nice higher low demand for that pair!

 

Yep, nice there. Off the asian low and fridays low. Traded the franc on friday from the asian breakout and pullback but only managed a small profit there, failed to run on past the 2520 zone.

[Anna-Maria 10]

I need to be more agressive when i see these opps. I think that often in these scenarios, when you area at key stalling zones, you need to get in at the first signs of failure. Awaiting too much confirmation can often result in missing the boat.

 

You take a less advantageous trade, which does not have the value that the original trade had and you probably end up getting stop hunted as your stop is ill-placed.

 

If I were you I'd be congratulating myself!!

 

You're regularly spotting these opportunities And more importantly, you're analyzing correctly where your optimum risk ought to lie in accordance with the signals?

 

The more you practice observing a particular set-up/signal & it's (results) expectancy, the more you'll strengthen your ability to wrap a workable play around similar occurances?

 

As long as you can obtain value & decent risk in order to 'test' any new set-up you'll be on the right track.

 

It's mostly about observation & practice. Certain elements just click with some folks. Once you find something which suits your style/timeframe & risk balance, you'll feel more comfortable about triggering it.

 

There are many folks out there who never manage to get where you are now! Just continue to attract the stuff which sparks your interest & take your time to thoroughly evaluate it - to ensure it sits correctly with your attitude to risk & objectives.

 

If it doesn't, then bin it quickly, otherwise it will haunt you & distract you from the important aspects of your work!

 

Just because a certain set-up or strategy appears funky to one person, doesn't equate that it'll sit right with the next person!! Most of it gets constructed inside the head and if the head aint comfortable, then the strat won't work.

[steveshutts 10]

Thanks Anna.

I feel like i am getting the hang of spotting good opps. Just a case of attacking them confidently when they happen, and not sitting around for too long, especially executing from these frames.

The key, i have found, is if miss something, DON'T take a more risky trade on in an attempt to leg in to the move, wait for the next A1 opp!

[torero 10]

I see there's been alot of hustling this morning. I got up early and watched Tokyo take it up then London opened and took it down. Wasn't around my desk to see any trade taken place. Here's what I saw this morning, a bull flag setting up. I finally added the 78.6 to my levels.

 

Very nice trade indeed for one of your guys, tex. Steve, you're coming just fine I say too.

 

[steveshutts 10]

Morning Torero.

 

This has been a bit of a runaway train after the initial opps early doors. There was a nice opp at 9500 on the 5 min chart but that was 30 mins before the data print so not an option for my money.

Price has travelled 130 pips already today so unless we get decent pullback back up to maybe the 9500 zone i won't be trading. Looks like we are making headway for that 9315 area. Price has not yet broke through this 9450 demand zone convincingly. This is a strong support area with the good old 78% marker sitting there as well.

Next support area will be 9400, round number and also a daily 78% fib if you take your fibs from the 9250 swing point.

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Price has not yet broke through this 9450 demand zone convincingly. This is a strong support area with the good old 78% marker sitting there as well.

 

Yeah, it's also todays S1 level (9440), which price has just bounced off.

 

Looking like it's merely a resting stop, judging the potential demand down here. If it fails to convincingly break back above 9475-80, it will soak up this demand & no doubt begin sniffing out more stops below.

 

9485 is the 38.2% of this mornings H-L.

[Anna-Maria 10]

Similar scenario of the Franc this morning. Since the move up from the demand zone thru 2470, it's hurdled the pivots on good follow thru, currently re-testing last weeks high.

 

The stiffer resistance activity rests farther ahead @ 2550-75, where the 78.6 is waiting. This pair signalled the less risky trigger for me, & has popped along quite nicely.

 

[steveshutts 10]

 

9485 is the 38.2% of this mornings H-L.

 

Yep, got that Anna. Will wait and see what develops. Could well drift back up over this dull period until the US open, and we may get an opp to maybe get in with another attack at todays lows and maybe even 9400.

Waiting......

[torero 10]

Looks like a another 78.6 spot that reversed on GBPJPY (236.7 area), excellent tool for spotting reversals! Now why didn't I think of that?! I'm still watching before using it as I'm still not sure about waiting for confirmation or just take it as it touches the level. A bit uncomfortable with since I don't know where to place the stop (no support to place behind it). Any ideas on this tactic?

[Anna-Maria 10]

There's a good bit of support underneath the 78.6 trigger teroro where that 38.2 marker from the larger swing hits on?

 

A couple larger pivot zones also match up with this lower top zone. I guess it depends on how you see the mid-frame price activity panning out.

 

238.50-239 certainly needs to break with some follow thru support to encourage a push back toward the upper limits of +240.0.

 

This appears suspect to a drop back to the 234.70 (50%) support line in the short term unless this mid-term behaviour gets shaken out?

 

As for triggering that particular (78.6) touch?? The larger Fib certainly offered a level in which to tuck your stop in order to test any GBP upside. It certainly marries a price based support line on the mid-frames.

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

Nice bear flag on cable this morning, currently looking tired at 9500 but europe not up yet so would prefer to wait for them at least. Never know quite how to tackle these flags, i suppose you should really wait for a breakout either side and then pullback.

9500 could contain price this morning, if not, 9510/15 looks a nice area for a possible turn at the london open? We will see.

Swissy also looking good for a continuation up, with price heading towards bottom of range, with watch areas of 2515 and 2500 this morning. We could see an attack of 2550 and 2575 area from here?

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Yes, there's certainly nothing very tempting about triggering a fresh position on Cable so far this morning Steve.

 

Shorts from yesterday haven't really been threatened & won't be until price hurdles that R1/61.8% combo @ c9540. Until that initial upside barrier folds, it's containing this thing in a depressed tone. UK CPI-RPI prints in a couple hours with the Stateside Trade Balance numbers out later. We'll get a better feel for the appetite then I guess.

 

 

[steveshutts 10]

Well, i took a short at 9480 based on the neutral bar prints on the hourly and the 1-2-3 trigger on the 15 min, based on finding resistance at 9500 and 50% retracement from yesterday.

I must admit, i was a bit dubious about the position of price within the channel. If the signal had been at an extreme end of the channel ie top in this case then maybe it would have held more weight.

Anyway, my short was triggered but i closed the position after the hammer prints on the 15. I was not going to hang around to be proven wrong, that was enough inidication for me that this was not the right time.

 

 

[Anna-Maria 10]

Keep an eye on that 78.6 noted on your 15m graph from yesterdays activity. It marries the confluence (61.8/R1 pivot) posted on the prev chart.

 

If price skips thru this intraday 61.8 (from y'days H-L) & makes a run for the R1, it could offer a test (short) of this lower high wave?

[Anna-Maria 10]

I guess you shorted it already off the doji at the 61.8%

[steveshutts 10]

LOL, i wish!

This game is hard and i still have a lot to learn. Yep, that was a key watch zone for me, as i mentioned in my first post today. Saw the doji, perfect spot but bottled it, as i had just taken a loss and i suppose it was fear of being wrong again. Something i am trying to get myself out of, fear of being wrong, a tough one to battle against.

I should have jumped straight back in at the next good opp, which was that one, but i didn't. Boy, is that annoying or what.

Right, time away from the computer now, otherwise i am bound to jump on something.

[steveshutts 10]

Well, fed my little girl and back to the screen. Hmm, glad i didn't take that short now, doesn't look to favourable now.

Wait for CPI figures now i guess.