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slick60

EURUSD Et Al Trading

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6E March Euro futures

Here is a chart I made simply to show how the Quarters Theory works if you have not caught on by now after reading this thread. It is very interesting how the 25 pip quarters come into play as support and resistance zones - or targets for the institutions who are moving the markets. You can follow the "thought valuation process" of the market makers as price moves within and through the quarters. See where price reverses and does it have conviction as it passes through a quarter. Is there an increase of volume and momentum with the move? Where is the next quarter target? Couple questions to ask. Are we finding multiple support at a quarter? What is the normal ADR? Have we reached a 5 or 6 quarter move?

Note the signs of potential market maker moves for reversals.

 

15 min futures 2012-02-14_0707 - slick60's library

 

slick60

PS - if you cannot find the Quarters Theory through Google, PM me and I will be happy to assist you.

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DX cycle points

Charts here are of the DX daily and weekly. Where the DX goes the Euro goes the other way. One can see if the cycles are somewhat correct that I am looking at we are possibly now in the continuation move of the DX to make higher high than what we had on Jan 13th this year. That does not bode well for the euro which should be moving down into a lower low.

It appears to me that the DX has completed the retracement move down into the red MTD and Black MLTD delta points. We should be on our way up to the next Long Term Delta point #5. There is the possibility that with the wide ranging LTD points that the 5 could have come in early with the MLTD 8 high and we are into a sustained move south at this time.

 

daily 2012-02-14_1315 - slick60's library

weekly 2012-02-14_1314 - slick60's library

 

slick60

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EURUSD

It appears that we are in a methodical decline of 5 to 6 quarters (125-150 pips) per day in the euro at present. We started from the 1.3325 hesitation zone at 1.3321 and appear to be working down to and I feel through the 1.3000 Major Quarter. I feel the hesitation zone at 1.2925 area should offer initial support for this move going down. There is a naked POC at 1.2929 at the end of the 75 pip hesitation zone beneath the 1.3000 major quarter. Naked POC's act as magnets for price. With price dropping through the 1.3000 level it will place us into the next important 1,000 pip range. A transition to the 1.2750 large quarter will be most important.

If my delta count is correct we should experience some strength into Friday when the blue ITD 4 high was due. Into next week the decline should accelerate in the form of a 3rd or © wave south.

 

daily 2012-02-15_1958 - slick60's library

 

slick60

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For the past week we have had a systematic decline in the euro given news etc. There have been pauses along the way for balancing of inventory by the market makers. However at this present time we are basically 100% short inventory from yesterday's 9:30am open. We have breached the Major Quarter at 1.3000 and are trading on either side of that level for a few hours. I feel the market makers are net long at this time and in order to get paid they have to turn the market. That means a move north to balance inventory once again. They like to do this as cheaply as possible so look to make their moves with opportunity. That opportunity this morning will probably come initially with an 8:30am jobs report, be it good or bad, and followed up with Mr Bernanke speaking at 9:00am. Last Tuesday Ben spoke and the euro seemed to find some good in his words of wisdom and zoomed north. Whatever perception is drawn by the markets and manipulated by the market makers, there will be an opposite reaction showing the direction they wish to push the market at that time. They need to get paid.

Two areas I am looking at for potential reversal are the 1.2975 overshoot and the 1.2925 hesitation zone that I mentioned in my last post.

 

Good trading folks

 

slick60

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EURUSD

Here is a scrunched market profile chart showing our current 44 pip session that started at 2:00am EST. It is a narrow balancing profile and will give way to opportunity when change takes place and price moves above or below the balancing area. On a break monitor the move for conviction with increased volume/momentum. That should come in just prior to leaving the balance area orchestrated by the market makers to trap traders and entice others to join their move cutting the cost to them.

The two naked POC's shown are visual targets sitting in quarters zones.

This is a chart of the euro 6E futures contract for March

 

2012-02-16_0618 - slick60's library

 

slick60

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Are the market makers happy now or do they have to go deeper to increase their long holdings for a retrace north?

 

2012-02-16_0748 - slick60's library

 

slick60

 

Both the EURUSD and the DX have now hit a 50% retrace of the move from Jan 13, 2012. A logical point of support/resistance for them. Now to see if they "spike" them before reversing.

Edited by slick60

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[quote name=slick60;139882

 

 

 

Both the EURUSD and the DX have now hit a 50% retrace of the move from Jan 13' date=' 2012. A logical point of support/resistance for them. Now to see if they "spike" them before reversing.[/quote]

 

Think they just absorbed a ton of supply down here

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Think they just absorbed a ton of supply down here

 

I don't think the supply was that great. Not that much interest in going long after 5 days of mainly downside action. I am leery in here feeling the market has to go down before it can go up in here. They have had a fairly long period to balance inventory and now need to accumulate. May be wrong but I think Uncle Ben will do something with this.

 

slick

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I don't think the supply was that great. Not that much interest in going long after 5 days of mainly downside action. I am leery in here feeling the market has to go down before it can go up in here. They have had a fairly long period to balance inventory and now need to accumulate. May be wrong but I think Uncle Ben will do something with this.

 

slick

 

 

I agree up long enough to unload what they got, medium long term DOLLAR strong IMO

 

unloaded at LG Quarter

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EURUSD

We have come to an area of retrace where I have a completed EW pattern on a 15 minute chart as shown. The top of the hesitation zone is at 1.3075 and the naked POC resides at 1.3069. The only way to get them right now in my mind is with an irregular retracement higher as shown by the retracement levels. That is what I am watching at this time

 

2012-02-16_1102 - slick60's library

 

slick.

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Last Tuesday when Mr Bernanke spoke we had a 174 pip run north by 1pm est. Today if same occurred it would bring us to a 50% retrace of the move down in the 1.3150 area. On a 4 hr chart I can count 5 waves down in threes signifying correction so a move back to the 50% area would not be out of line. I also mentioned in earlier posts about the ITD 4 high due tomorrow but came in early with the 1.3321 high. However strength would in all likelyhood be seen. This looks like strength. I tried a short at the 1.3075 area and made my small donation for the cause.

Watch this retrace move as it could take on the appearance of a head and shoulders looking pattern from the Jan 13 low. We would be working our way back up to the right shoulder at present.

1.3125 is the midpoint between to two large quarters 1.3300 and 1.3250. Perhaps a resting point.

 

 

slick60

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6E euro futures

Here is a 15 min chart of what I see and look for. I missed the long entry thinking we did not have enough strength to push north at this time. I had an entry sitting on top of the trend line as shown for long and cancelled it. Sucked me out of my gonch. Damn. The market makers footprint and set-up was all over this chart and I just did not believe.

I will wait for a turn on the top end now perhaps tomorrow or overnight.

I keep forgetting to mention about the Central pivot. There is a site dealing with the "heat seeking missile" about the high percentage of times the London session will run to the Central Pivot each day depending where it is. That is another reason I went short in the 1.3075 area as you can see the green PP on the chart.

 

2012-02-16_1222 - slick60's library

 

slick60

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Hi Slick60 I been read yr thread as guess till today I join forum as I would like to learn more from your post. I trade euro future with tradestation and did take your advise on use market order. Thank you for the great information that you post here. I hope you don’t mind to share with me here on how you set up market profile on final with Ninja and what about the data. I want to purchase the final software but not sure about how to set up. Apologize if you have post the set up chart on euro somewhere. Please kindly paste the links Thank you for sharing your knowledge

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Hi Slick60 I been read yr thread as guess till today I join forum as I would like to learn more from your post. I trade euro future with tradestation and did take your advise on use market order. Thank you for the great information that you post here. I hope you don’t mind to share with me here on how you set up market profile on final with Ninja and what about the data. I want to purchase the final software but not sure about how to set up. Apologize if you have post the set up chart on euro somewhere. Please kindly paste the links Thank you for sharing your knowledge

 

Hi Ithai

Welcome to Traders Lab. The Final market profile software is made to be used with the Ninja Trader platform. The data for NT comes from a number of providers. You can buy NT or use the free version of the platform. I use the free version and it is powered with data from Zen-fire. My futures broker is Mirus. TradeStation will power Ninja Trader but historical data is not readily available. Real time it is fine but when you shut down you lose any data during the down time and it does not repopulate. TS is inadequate.

Do you have NT loaded on your computer yet? I would be glad to help you get set up.

If you like you can PM me.

 

slick60

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AUDUSD

The Aussie has performed somewhat as I expected but did show a bit more strength to the upside. It did in fact have strength up into where the blue ITD 4 normally was due on average as I mentioned in earlier posts. I feel the retrace is complete at this time and we are still working in a complex correction mainly sideways for some time yet. My target at this point is the large quarter at the 1.0500 level which would be a .618 4th wave measurement against the 2nd wave up in the ongoing structure. As you can see on the chart the next Delta low point is due on Friday the 2nd of March perhaps at that .618 shown. That would represent the 1st leg of the complex correction I am looking for if my EW count is correct. The move may reverse at 1.0500 LQ, 1.0525 overshoot, or the 1.0575 hesitation zone for this leg down. One always has to be aware that the EW pattern can and often does morph into something other than what one sees in their crystal ball. I am very well aware of that and try to leave my mind open to different scenarios.

 

daily 2012-02-18_0800 - slick60's library

 

Good trading everyone!

 

slick60

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6E euro futures

I have not posted recently and wish to share a working chart of my 15 minute 6E that I trade. This is basically a mechanical approach to trading for me. I look to enter on close of a 15 minute bar when my indicators have a picture that statistically will give me a reasonable trade with a reasonable defined risk. I try to target 20-25 pips with a stop of 10 pips. In futures that amounts to targets of $250.00 - $312.50 against risk of $125.00.

On the chart I have marked entry bars long and short over the past day and a bit. The black numbers next to the entry arrows are from close of the bar to a reverse - the range after entry. The 2nd smaller number is the number of pips of heat after each entry. My set up is plain to see. There is no expectation on entering the trade but I am willing to bet 10 pips to see if I am right. If wrong we wait for the next set-up.

Set yourself up with your favorite indicator picture and demo it over a random test of 20 trades or so and see how it fairs. You may be pleasantly surprised.

My futures require $500.00 margin for 1 contract and it returns $12.50 a pip. To get the same action in forex margin is approximately $3,000.00. My commission on the trade is $5.34. I can make reasonable money on a daily basis trading one futures contract with even 10 pip trades.

 

2012-02-22_0427 - slick60's library

 

Good trading everyone!

 

slick60

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You often hear traders talking about the Open Interest has increased or decreased in a certain commodity etc. That pertains to the futures contracts. Here are a couple of snaps how to find the open interest for the EURUSD from the CME.

Go first to this snap below. Use the url for the CME and then set the parameters as I have shown in 1-2-3 then click the PDF at 4.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/1cb0862a-7199-487b-8a0e-ba8b8b58291b/2012-02-22_0439.png

 

You will now get a report that looks similar to this snap below. I have highlighted what you want to look at for the EURUSD. Read the information across the line and look near the right where you can see the open interest increasing or decreasing. Yesterday the OI fell by a fair good amount minus 7,339 contracts.

 

2012-02-22_0443 - slick60's library

 

And now all we need is an expert to tell us "WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?"

Please if you have any theories regarding how to use the open interest post your thoughts here. I am quite sure everyone will be grateful.

 

slick60

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