Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

carltonp

Stratey Assessment / Review

Recommended Posts

Hello Traders,

 

I wonder if someone could shed some light on the following scenario with comments.

 

I trade the mini dow. My executions and exits occur on the 5min interval.

 

My main strategy is to wait until I see a WRB (wide range bar) develop and if there is a pause for say 15 seconds or more before the current interval is about to change then prepare to enter on a pull back. Let me give you an example. Lets say I'm witnessing a bullish WRB and the time is 11:54:40, (the interval will change in 20 seconds and the new interval will be 11:55), however just before the end of the current interval the price has paused at say 11833 for 18 seconds. At the begining of the new interval I will be looking to enter a pullback (a short trade in this instance) at or around 11833.

 

My thoughts are that right up until almost the very end of the current interval there is a huge amount of bullish activity, but just before end of the interval the price pauses - no one will know for sure why the price has suddenly paused but it has.

 

I have found that there appear to be fairly high probability that after the pause the price will pullback in the opposite direction or simply gap up / down in the opposite direction in the new interval.

 

I would love to hear your comments.

 

Cheers

 

Carlton

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hello Traders,

 

I wonder if someone could shed some light on the following scenario with comments.

 

I trade the mini dow. My executions and exits occur on the 5min interval.

 

My main strategy is to wait until I see a WRB (wide range bar) develop and if there is a pause for say 15 seconds or more before the current interval is about to change then prepare to enter on a pull back. Let me give you an example. Lets say I'm witnessing a bullish WRB and the time is 11:54:40, (the interval will change in 20 seconds and the new interval will be 11:55), however just before the end of the current interval the price has paused at say 11833 for 18 seconds. At the begining of the new interval I will be looking to enter a pullback (a short trade in this instance) at or around 11833.

 

My thoughts are that right up until almost the very end of the current interval there is a huge amount of bullish activity, but just before end of the interval the price pauses - no one will know for sure why the price has suddenly paused but it has.

 

I have found that there appear to be fairly high probability that after the pause the price will pullback in the opposite direction or simply gap up / down in the opposite direction in the new interval.

 

I would love to hear your comments.

 

Cheers

 

Carlton

 

Seems like an interesting observation.

 

Some questions to ask yourself:

Does this phenomenon capture trader behavior that is identifiable?

Does this phenomenon occur in other time intervals?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Seems like an interesting observation.

 

Some questions to ask yourself:

Does this phenomenon capture trader behavior that is identifiable?

Does this phenomenon occur in other time intervals?

 

MM, thanks for responding. To be honest I don't the answer to your first question. I was hoping that other traders will shed some light on that.

 

I havent' tried other intervals.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Seems like an interesting observation.

 

 

Does this phenomenon capture trader behavior that is identifiable?

 

Hi Mighty Mouse

Please explain what you mean by this.

Kind regards

bobc

 

Sure.

 

If it captures a behavior, then it is something that you can hypothesis will occur more often than not and you might find it on other time frames as well. If you properly test it and determine that it does capture a behavior like fear, greed, aggressiveness, weakness, etc then you may want to add it to your trading. If it doesn't capture a behavior, I personally wouldn't do anything with it.

 

As an example, I have never made sense of the 80% rule we have all learned from MP and I will not trade it. It makes no sense to me why it would traverse the balance area if the circumstances set up the 80% rule. On the other hand, there are things that I do that I will do 1000 times out of 1000 times because they make sense to me and they occur with a lot less frequency than 80%.

 

Cabese?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Sure.

 

If it captures a behavior, then it is something that you can hypothesis will occur more often than not and you might find it on other time frames as well. If you properly test it and determine that it does capture a behavior like fear, greed, aggressiveness, weakness, etc then you may want to add it to your trading. If it doesn't capture a behavior, I personally wouldn't do anything with it.

 

As an example, I have never made sense of the 80% rule we have all learned from MP and I will not trade it. It makes no sense to me why it would traverse the balance area if the circumstances set up the 80% rule. On the other hand, there are things that I do that I will do 1000 times out of 1000 times because they make sense to me and they occur with a lot less frequency than 80%.

 

Cabese?

 

Hi Mighty Mouse

I see exactly the same pause and reversal in my market ,South African ALSI 40

Also 5 minute time span

It has taken me quite a few years to see this on the 5min so I dont know if it occures on other time spans

Somewhere I read that this is programable trading.(Algo)

Now the million dollar question

Would you say algorithmic trading is identifiable trader behaviour?

regards

bobc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Hi Mighty Mouse

I see exactly the same pause and reversal in my market ,South African ALSI 40

Also 5 minute time span

It has taken me quite a few years to see this on the 5min so I dont know if it occures on other time spans

Somewhere I read that this is programable trading.(Algo)

Now the million dollar question

Would you say algorithmic trading is identifiable trader behaviour?

regards

bobc

 

Sometimes it does capture behavior. You should be able to identify the behavior and if you can, then you have something. Sometimes you are capturing a statistical fluke that will go away over time. Or, it may already have gone away and no one told you. That's the chance you take by trading based solely on backtesting a high probability nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello carlton:

 

Sorry for the late reply but I'm just getting caught up on my reading.

 

I also trade the YM and I'm not sure if this addresses your issue but here is an idea for you.

 

I keep a small chart of the regular sized DOW in the corner of my monitor with Daily Pivots, 80 EMA & 200 EMA. I have noticed that when the YM mysteriously pauses or reverses it occurs when the regular DOW is at one of these S & R areas.

 

If you decide to try this you will notice that the YM trails the DOW by a certain number of points and the two markets pretty much mirror each other but it is impossible to tell which one is leading the other. The data feed for the DOW can also be a lot slower but it's nice to know when that market is approaching one of those areas.

 

Hope this helps.

 

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hello carlton:

 

Sorry for the late reply but I'm just getting caught up on my reading.

 

If you decide to try this you will notice that the YM trails the DOW by a certain number of points and the two markets pretty much mirror each other but it is impossible to tell which one is leading the other.

Hope this helps.

 

Cheers

 

Thanks for responding. This is so true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • MNST Monster Beverage stock, top of range breakout above 60.45, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?MNST
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.