Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Maelstrom

Trading the Storm - Methods for the Struggling Trader

Recommended Posts

Not to cloud anyone's analysis, but this trendline appears to be spot on..

 

BTW, nice trade, what is that like 65 ticks MFE? Pretty good RR

5aa7108bbb0a5_nicetl.thumb.jpg.0b5f059250e4e00095bd741215013f69.jpg

Edited by ziebarf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm thinking you are stopped out now with maybe 15 tick profit unless you waited for the signal to go long, then you didn't make much at all.

Now it looks like we would be long.

SNAG-0006.jpg.bd2d10e7de955b5e5aa6673bb4648803.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm thinking you are stopped out now with maybe 15 tick profit unless you waited for the signal to go long, then you didn't make much at all.

Now it looks like we would be long.

 

Indeed - a MFE of 67 points, and an exit on the reversal for a whopping......hold on, drum roll please..... 8 points. :crap:

 

Actually, it's perfectly ok with me. This is an excellent example of how sometimes, with my methods at least, when a market meanders, especially after a violent move like this morning, it will just languish and you can give up a lot. But, the runner trades more than make up for these, and I believe in giving a trade room instead of choking it out too soon.

 

Remember, for the risk-adverse.... a 1:2 R:R ratio is perfectly doable with a method like this, and would have served a trader well today.

 

And you are correct - long entry on the first green bar around 1:31 cst. Short week, less than two hours to close on a weekend, definitely a judgement call for most on whether to take on a new trade here.

 

M

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not to cloud anyone's analysis, but this trendline appears to be spot on..

 

BTW, nice trade, what is that like 65 ticks MFE? Pretty good RR

 

Thanks Ziebarf - great observation on the TL. Things like that have always been a reason I have been unable to believe the random walk theorists - there is usually some kind of structure, we just may not always be able to see it.

 

M

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Out at 12626, my entry was at 12565, so +61 on that one. Exit was simply due to 5 mins to close on a Friday, but I will take it and be happy.

 

Have a great weekend everyone.

 

M

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Out at 12626, my entry was at 12565, so +61 on that one. Exit was simply due to 5 mins to close on a Friday, but I will take it and be happy.

 

Have a great weekend everyone.

 

M

 

You too M, try to stay cool in da Texas heat...

 

here's the 3200 tick ES today with some annotations...

 

what's not on the chart is trade management...

 

so, the failed ICH pattern trade (short) turned out to be a looser... however, it was not too bad because I did manage to get half my position off for a point before it reversed and the stop was just below the entry candle so it was almost breakeven.... if i'm disciplined in following my rules for high probability entries... then getting the first 1/2 of my position off is lilely and then i have reduced risk scenario for the remaining 1/2.

 

in fact there was an earlier IHS pattern that I tried to trade thinking it would move to fill the half gap but my order didn't get filled... good thing cuz it ended up failing too!

 

in fact, by the time the 9:00 zone rolled around one of the scenarios i thought might develope would be the IHS trade to fill the half gap then a sell-off from there to close near the LOD... just goes to show ya...

 

2011-07-08_1614.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phil,

 

In the spirit of the title of this thread, would you be willing to explain your trading method (or at least your take on c&h patterns) in more detail?

 

Thanks,

 

J.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Phil,

 

In the spirit of the title of this thread, would you be willing to explain your trading method (or at least your take on c&h patterns) in more detail?

 

Thanks,

 

J.

 

Jon,

 

My take on the patterns is really no different than probably anything else that's out there on the subject...

 

and really, C&H, H&S, wedge, flag, etc. are just names for consolidation patterns.

 

the way i try to trade them is to wait for a close past the neckline or b/o line and then a pullback for entry... ideally there's some confluence near my perceived entry point of fib level, trend-line, pivot, etc. and also reversal time zones. also as i mentioned in a previous post i watch market internals and the tick to time entries...

 

if I get filled then it's trade management after that...

 

i like to use a scale out method that gets me out 1/2 position on the first move... so say i have 4 contracts... 2 are off 1st at a target set to a tick or so below the swing high, then my stop is moved up to where if it's hit that i'm only out net a couple ticks... this usually still allows me room for the trade to work...

 

the remaining 2 contracts... 1 i usually set for a tick or two below the 23.6% fib extension above the swing high... or an obvious resistance level... (TL, pivot, key MA, prior day high, low, open, close, gap, etc.) if that's hit, then i move my stop for the remaining 1 contract to break even and employ a trailing stop based on successive swing lows not unlike what Maelstrom has described here.

 

one other thing i like to do is be aware what the range is for the first 30 minutes of trading and also where the close is at 60 minutes in relationship to the mid-point of the 1st 5 minutes of trading... the later usually is a good indicator of the overall bias for the day...

 

ok, so that's more than describing the C&H pattern... but again, whether it's C&H, H&S, wedge, flag, or whatever, it's gonna be different every day and I just try to do the "stand back and squint my eyes" every once in awhile to try and see if anything is shaping up pattern wise...

 

fwiw, and IMHO tick charts are much better at revealling the patterns...

 

it was a real eye opener when i started using tick charts....

 

as I told a trading buddy of mine, the patterns just seem to jump out....

 

not sure if that helps

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phil,

 

Thanks for the reply. I will probably need a little hand holding for each situation but I will read what you have posted a couple of times and bring up some charts to see if I can apply what you have stated in your post. I need to learn to crawl first before I can stand up and fall down a few times.

 

J.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like if you were up at about 2:30 or so you would have had your entry.

One of the things I like about this method is the ability to disregard the time...

SNAG-0001.jpg.78095dcf447fefebafd800f8e8829bf7.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looks like if you were up at about 2:30 or so you would have had your entry.

One of the things I like about this method is the ability to disregard the time...

 

That's right JEH.... got in on that one, then set some alarms and went back to sleep, so apologies to anyone tracking these that I didn't make any updates. I will post a chart a little later with the complete trade.

 

Also, been working on something else..... maybe TTS 2.0 lol. Will continue to develop it and maybe post some information once I confirm a few things.

 

M

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maelstrom,

 

I was in the trade last night. Sim account, not live. I missed the initial entry but got in at a better price. but kept the stop that would have been correct had I not missed the initial entry. This raises the question...

 

How do you enter and manage trades when they could be triggered any time of the day?

 

Once you are in a trade, how do you babysit it through the night?

 

I believe I followed you rules for trade management using the extension of the formation as the trade progressed but I also used the Friday close down bar as the first bar of the formation. I will be looking forward to your play by play on this trade.

 

J.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Maelstrom,

 

I was in the trade last night. Sim account, not live. I missed the initial entry but got in at a better price. but kept the stop that would have been correct had I not missed the initial entry. This raises the question...

 

How do you enter and manage trades when they could be triggered any time of the day?

 

Once you are in a trade, how do you babysit it through the night?

 

I believe I followed you rules for trade management using the extension of the formation as the trade progressed but I also used the Friday close down bar as the first bar of the formation. I will be looking forward to your play by play on this trade.

 

J.

 

Jon,

 

Great questions. I guess I would start by saying I trade 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. I know that sounds a little crazy, and I guess it is, but it's not quite as bad as it sounds...

 

I have a lot of alert conditions set up for my setups. For example, 3 consecutive bars up or down, and I get an alert. I also set up alerts for price extensions and/or when price gets near a stop level. I have a laptop that I keep on the nightstand overnight, and when an alert goes off, I check to see what is happening, and decide whether it is something to watch or to setup another alert. Yes, it sucks a lot of times being woken up several times a night, but as I have mentioned before, there is nothing I hate more than waking up and having seen a great move that began in the AH session and left nothing but chop to try and trade during the day. With that being said, certainly not a trading style for everyone.

 

And apologize for the delay in posting a chart on the trade..... been playing with my new charts a bit to see if I can get alerts set up the way I need them, but I will get that up here in just a few mins. If you can, post your chart also....I would like to see how this trade worked out for you.

 

M

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

M,

 

Your trade is the same as I followed. I haven't found an indicator for ninjatrader to alert for the pattern so I may have to mod some other indicator to do this. Let me know if you know of one for ninja so I don't spend time if it's already out there. Ensign is pretty flexible when it comes to creating stuff like that with the DYO study feature. I also agree that if many of the good setups occur outside of the US session, you have to wait until the market is ready to give you a signal and be ready to act on it.

 

Also, if the price gap is not a real gap from Friday close to Sunday open, let me know what fixes it.

 

J.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pre-mkt doodling on 3200 tick ES...

 

not set in stone, just the boundries as of the posting of this msg... may add another fork if close below existing fork mid-line continues south...

 

2011-07-13_0711.png

Edited by Phil-n-Texas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ES daily...

 

i realize this is a "price action" thread but it can pay to be aware of commonly used indicators such as MA's, oscillators, etc. on daily, weekly....

 

lots of convergence right here at the 50% retrace area... 20(red), 50(dk-blue), 150(pink) MA's... many oscillators in oversold territory...

 

2011-07-13_0721.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.