Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

JEHs

Really???

Recommended Posts

Why do we have these discussion forums? What am I expecting to get from this? What have I ever got from a discussion forum? Is there some voice out there that I will stumble upon that will give me the ultimate secret to trading? Do I even know if there is anyone here who actually can trade successfully? Can trading even be done successfully?

 

A while back there was a survey posted here. One of the questions, of course, was something Like, “what more would you like to see in this forum, (or website or whatever, I can't remember the wording)”. My answer was simple. I want someone to tell me how to trade successfully.

That's not asking for too much is it?

 

HA! ...so we have discussions on entry’s and exits and candlesticks and Wycoff, and trend lines and psychology and price action and blah blah blah.... on and on...

 

A few thoughts:

 

I'm pretty sure I could get my “traders IQ” level to 100 here without actually ever making a successful trade if that is something I wanted to do... if I wanted to sell myself as a coach or something. I know enough about trading, I have been looking at charts long enough, that I know exactly what to do and when... and yet I still am not a successful trader.

 

Trader Vic said something like, he had taken over the years before his first book, at least 30 people into his office, showed them everything he does, let them in on all his secrets, worked with them independently and as attentively as possible and something like 6 of them went on to become anything near successful.

 

The desire to teach is strong, but for a successful trader to hang out at a forum like this? Most of the folks that appear successful eventually fade away. They get tired of the same old questions and nobody really appearing to “get it”. They have better things to do, (I would sure hope so, if they were successful).

 

I do believe trading can be done successfully, but I don't know for sure. I have NEVER actually sat next to someone and watched them make real trades successfully one after another over any length of time, so I DO NOT KNOW FOR SURE... but it seems plausible...

 

I wonder if there is anybody at this forum that was here as an unsuccessful trader and progressed to the point of being a successful trader? It's just a thought... Seems like there are a lot of people that appear to be successful, (I say “appear' because one never can tell for sure), but they are always just there. Like they just know how to trade. I've never seen anyone actually going through the steps of becoming a successful trader from being an unsuccessful one....

 

So, where do we go from here. I see the newbies come in and I say to myself, “I'm glad I'm way past that stage”, but what does that mean? I still am not successful, so how am I past that at all?

 

In the end, you just keep your nose to the grindstone and plod along. Hoping for some sort of enlightenment. An “ah-ha” moment. Or maybe hoping that someone, if we ask the right questions, will feel sorry for us and take us under their wing and give us the true wisdom that they are withholding from everyone else... or... I don't know what we are hoping for.

 

We read these posts, we sometimes say something that we think is important or ask an important question...but...Really?? WTF??

 

...so let's talk about that... yeah, all of it.... just for feces and giggles...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

personally - I know a lot of traders. But I dont know if they started successfully or had to work at it. A lot were thrown in the deep in and either managed to make money or did not. The one thing I do know is that at some stage every single one of them had a bad period of loosing money, and the only ones that really made it had both a passion for it and were always questioning themselves.

So maybe its luck of the draw for when you start, or you are just born with certain attributes that help you become successful?

 

Otherwise..... discussion forums etc. They are just another source of education/entertainment/discussion/inspiration/thought provocation.

Sometimes the individuals circumstances change, or they just get bored (most likely).

Often what I think works in some circumstances does not in others so you can actually have a multitude of answers all equally correct dependent on the perspective of the time, person and place.

I dont believe everything I read in a science journal so the internet certainly is not going to trump that.

There is one philosophy I have recently had re-inforced in my general personal life and that is "sh.t happens" so you either do you you dont things...... the universe does not care.....but i would rather do

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love your post. Having been doing this long enough to have a masters degree in something else, I know how you feel. I too have " freinds" who KILL the market everyday, while I humbley make my measley few hundread dollars a week after commissions and fees and all the other crap you have to do to stay in the buisness. And think to my self "why thee hell cant i do what he does and make a 6 figure income?". We all have to deal with the same issues, " this one looks good but .............. screw it its not ready" or the famous " well ive hit 3 in a row im done for the day". Or the wose one " crap thats 3 loosers in a row and I just blew a weeks profeit". In the end forums are a place to vent or to arrange your thoughts. When I was newer I used to start threads about trade set ups and methods, but thats all crap too. It makes you think about what you are trying to say in a clear and concise manner, that cant be bad, but will it help your tading? Probably not. In the end the holy grail is between your own ears, not someone elses. No two brains see the same thing the same way. But if one can control risk and there own self (hardest part for most) there must be a shining light at then end of the tunnell. Or we are all delusional.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I love your post. Having been doing this long enough to have a masters degree in something else, I know how you feel. I too have " freinds" who KILL the market everyday, while I humbley make my measley few hundread dollars a week after commissions and fees and all the other crap you have to do to stay in the buisness. And think to my self "why thee hell cant i do what he does and make a 6 figure income?". We all have to deal with the same issues, " this one looks good but .............. screw it its not ready" or the famous " well ive hit 3 in a row im done for the day". Or the wose one " crap thats 3 loosers in a row and I just blew a weeks profeit". In the end forums are a place to vent or to arrange your thoughts. When I was newer I used to start threads about trade set ups and methods, but thats all crap too. It makes you think about what you are trying to say in a clear and concise manner, that cant be bad, but will it help your tading? Probably not. In the end the holy grail is between your own ears, not someone elses. No two brains see the same thing the same way. But if one can control risk and there own self (hardest part for most) there must be a shining light at then end of the tunnell. Or we are all delusional.

 

At least you have friends who "kill the market", so you know it is possible. I don't even know that. If you are making a few hundred bucks a week, I would say you are doing good. I'm lucky to break even...

 

I'm not complaining. Like you say, the Holy Grail is between our own ears. There is no one to blame but ourselves. But occasionally we have good reason to pause for reflection...

 

I posted this in my blog a while back:

 

In my day job I generally bill out at $35.00 - 40.00 an hour.

If I had worked all these hours over the past 12 years or so instead of trying to learn to trade...

 

Lets see... If I say I average two hours a day on trading and go ten years to keep it conservative, (and I'm sure that would be conservative), that would be 520 hours a year, 5200 for the ten year period. Let's say $35.00 an hour would get me to $182,000.00. That is a conservative figure of what this education has cost me so far. That doesn't include books and paying scammers, probably several thousand more. And the money I've lost in my account...Wow. That's a sobering thought... I wonder why I keep doing this? What makes me think I will succeed?

 

I wonder if I really care anymore weather I succeed? It seems like it is just something I do now...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The reality is your situation is no different than most retail traders. There are very few traders who can consistently make money. Unless you have a real edge as a retail trader, your chances are, unfortunately, very slim. You almost need a strong intellectual team and good technology behind you to be successful.

 

If you are trading YM, ES, or NQ - you may consider another market that isn't already flooded. You may have better luck finding an edge.

 

Good luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
AI wonder why I keep doing this? What makes me think I will succeed?

 

I wonder if I really care anymore weather I succeed? It seems like it is just something I do now...

 

its always darkest before the dawn. Or

its always darkest before its pitch black.

 

Seems like you need time off and some fresh perspective.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you are trading YM, ES, or NQ - you may consider another market that isn't already flooded. You may have better luck finding an edge.

 

Good luck.

 

 

Seems like you need time off and some fresh perspective.:)

 

Two great points. I gave the Emini's a good crack a few times, it just wasn't the market for how I like to trade. I took that experience and applied it to something else, and found it worked very well with a few minor adjustments for the different market. If nothing else short term trading will give you a massive pile of data to sift through to look for answers, rather than waiting for events to occur one day at a time.

 

If you aren't getting anywhere, just sit back and watch the market for a while. Strip all the indicators off your charts and watch price. If you have a favorite indicator just observe how that interacts with price on several markets/time frames. Maybe there is a sweet spot out there waiting just for your trading style.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why do we have these discussion forums? What am I expecting to get from this? What have I ever got from a discussion forum? Is there some voice out there that I will stumble upon that will give me the ultimate secret to trading? Do I even know if there is anyone here who actually can trade successfully? Can trading even be done successfully?

 

A while back there was a survey posted here. One of the questions, of course, was something Like, “what more would you like to see in this forum, (or website or whatever, I can't remember the wording)”. My answer was simple. I want someone to tell me how to trade successfully.

That's not asking for too much is it?

 

HA! ...so we have discussions on entry’s and exits and candlesticks and Wycoff, and trend lines and psychology and price action and blah blah blah.... on and on...

 

A few thoughts:

 

I'm pretty sure I could get my “traders IQ” level to 100 here without actually ever making a successful trade if that is something I wanted to do... if I wanted to sell myself as a coach or something. I know enough about trading, I have been looking at charts long enough, that I know exactly what to do and when... and yet I still am not a successful trader.

 

Trader Vic said something like, he had taken over the years before his first book, at least 30 people into his office, showed them everything he does, let them in on all his secrets, worked with them independently and as attentively as possible and something like 6 of them went on to become anything near successful.

 

The desire to teach is strong, but for a successful trader to hang out at a forum like this? Most of the folks that appear successful eventually fade away. They get tired of the same old questions and nobody really appearing to “get it”. They have better things to do, (I would sure hope so, if they were successful).

 

I do believe trading can be done successfully, but I don't know for sure. I have NEVER actually sat next to someone and watched them make real trades successfully one after another over any length of time, so I DO NOT KNOW FOR SURE... but it seems plausible...

 

I wonder if there is anybody at this forum that was here as an unsuccessful trader and progressed to the point of being a successful trader? It's just a thought... Seems like there are a lot of people that appear to be successful, (I say “appear' because one never can tell for sure), but they are always just there. Like they just know how to trade. I've never seen anyone actually going through the steps of becoming a successful trader from being an unsuccessful one....

 

So, where do we go from here. I see the newbies come in and I say to myself, “I'm glad I'm way past that stage”, but what does that mean? I still am not successful, so how am I past that at all?

 

In the end, you just keep your nose to the grindstone and plod along. Hoping for some sort of enlightenment. An “ah-ha” moment. Or maybe hoping that someone, if we ask the right questions, will feel sorry for us and take us under their wing and give us the true wisdom that they are withholding from everyone else... or... I don't know what we are hoping for.

 

We read these posts, we sometimes say something that we think is important or ask an important question...but...Really?? WTF??

 

...so let's talk about that... yeah, all of it.... just for feces and giggles...

 

I guess I'm sort of replying to all of that.

 

I reached a point where I shut off all forums, seminars, expos etc a while back. I'm involved in some exclusive forums where ideas are discussed bluntly by experienced traders, and have access to pick some very experienced brains. Most participants I hang out with are successful in at least one market/instrument. Around the same time I was invited to participate in trading rooms etc, and again turned all that down to simply shut out new inputs and deal with the knowledge I had. I'd been to seminars all over the world by that stage. Upon pointing out how sad the state of an expo I'd just attended was, my Mentor suggested I probably didn't need to bother attending them anymore (which I take as his cryptic way of saying "you already know enough, just sort it all out").

 

At that point I sat down and started collecting up and sorting through all the information I had on trading. If you don't already have it get a piece of software called Mindjet Mind Manager, it is a brilliant way to start sifting through all your knowledge and storing ideas - mindjet.com . I also asked myself some big questions that I thought had simple answers. Stuff like "What is Trend?". You'd be surprised how many red flags that thew up. Solving those questions was what nailed it all down for me (I was already making money in several markets for many years at this point, but a few had eluded my attempts to tame them).

 

One of the big realizations was the below video at TED.com (do spend time on TED while waiting for trades to setup, it's brilliant, and it's free). Make of this what you will. For me it solved the riddle. I had all the information I needed. I just had to sort out the answers.

 

Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from | Video on TED.com

 

FYI forums are great for finding things or prompting you to think about something in more detail. In writing down a question to expose to the world, you will find it may lead you to the answers even if nobody replies to it (and ignore any replies from sub 5yr experience traders anyway, it's not long enough to experience enough market conditions). Trading is also very boring so forums are good entertainment. A theme that goes well beyond trading is "teach others in order to master your skill" or some such thing. Open powerpoint and start laying out a slide show on how you would teach yourself how to trade. Maybe try it out on somebody you know who wants to learn. See how far you get before you start making a list of holes you need to fill. Finding answers to your own problems by doing this will earn you far more than becoming the next internet trading guru selling your ebook for $195 with a free set of steak knives.

 

Trader Vic was right, the failure rate is high. Didn't he blow up his own account at some point? Then again so did Livermore on three occasions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gail Mercer at Tradershelpdesk.com is a successful trader. She has a free webinar every morning Monday thru Thursday, from 9:00 a.m. to whenever she gets tired. She's VERY disciplined, shows you exactly what she's doing, where she's doing it, and why she's doing it. She only trades with the trend. She also has a bunch of free videos on her web site. (No, I don't work for her. I've never met her personally, and she's never asked me to promote her or her web site.) Just go to the web site. Sign up for her free webinar's. Watch her. And make up your own mind. Won't cost you one red cent. But if you really want to watch a real trader, who make's her living trading, trade in real time, showing you her losses in gains, as they happen, she's the real deal. Good luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are various possible motivations for people making a post to the forum. I make posts for a combination of reasons; some selfish, some less selfish. My selfish reasons are to get an ego boost for myself if someone gets some value out of what I provided. Another reason is to mentally "work through" ideas. Bad ideas will hopefully get filtered out and discarded. Good ideas will hopefully become actively present at the forefront of my consciousness decision making. Another part of me hopes for an ideal world where people actually have goodwill towards each other and understand, that what benefits the greater good will benefit each of us personally. But that doesn't make much sense in the context of trading, which is hardly a goodwill industry.

What if someone shares a great idea that helps a rotten, scumbag person make a million dollars? And the bad person uses the money for bad things. What if I shared a great chart setup and strategy that became so well known, and used, that the markets had to change because so many people where taking so much money out of the system, that the system would collapse?

So the deeper a person looks into the dynamics and truths that are at the very core of the market, the more you might realize how dark that black hole is.

So what is this forum for? It's a confused mix of the good and bad, trying to work itself out. It's cooperation, but only to a certain degree.

If by chance, I created the world's best trading strategy, I probably wouldn't tell anyone about it. And I doubt I'd have the time to make a post to this forum. I'd be busy doing other things. So I guess I'm confessing that I haven't achieved much success. That's not easy to admit, especially in the greed and ego driven world of trading. Maybe honesty will get me somewhere someday. :frustrated:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello Folks

 

I am done for the day, and thought I would mention a few things, hoping to help folks out

 

From my point of view its clear that most "trading" chat sites consist of retail traders looking for help. That seems to be the primary motivation. Coming in a close second, are the vendors of all kinds, whose motivation clearly is to sell products and services to the first group, and of course you have the site owner and his advertisers doing their thing....its all part of the food chain, right...?

 

Once you have reconciled yourself to these "facts", the question still remains, how does a person advance his/herself in this business? The obvious answer is the old standby...education and hardwork...its not glamorous or groundbreaking commentary, but I can assure you (those who might be serious about entering the profession)...that there is no other way IF you want to be consistently profitable.

 

I realize I have made some assumptions here. One is that people are serious about participating in the financial markets on a professional basis. Clearly there are people who simply want to be told when to buy and sell (otherwise there would be no trading chatrooms), and clearly there are small groups who believe that they can automate and let a software program trade for them while they sun themselves on the beach....lol

 

I would suggest that if a person is going to find success in this business, they will need to do two things. One is to protect capital by NOT TRADING until you have proven TO YOURSELF that your approach makes money, and number two is "invest" in your education. By "invest in your education" I mean take the time to learn the boring basics, learn about the markets, learn to use the basic tools of the trade including how to reseach, how to form a basic trading concept, how to test that concept using a spreadsheet, basic statistics, basic risk management, how to use execution software, order types, how to develop a busines plan. and while you are at it, how to control your emotions while trading....these are the minimum for success (I am sure that I have left out a few items as well)...These are subjects a person COULD learn on their own if they were motivated. As with all things, there is a price to pay, not in money, but in terms of time, effort, perseverance and discipline, and that is why so many fail....because they aren't willing to pay THAT price.....

 

Good luck

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good post Robert,

 

I recently decide to use as much free software as possible and you mention of mindjet (of which I own an early version) made me think to list what I found useful. Someone else might like:

 

- Freemind is a free mind mapping tool that is good

- yEd Graph Editor is a tool like Visio for drawing flow charts etc and is excellent

- OpenOffice is a 100% free substitute for office originally developed as Sun Office

- ChromePlus is the best non-google version of the open source Google Chrome browser

- Thunderbird is the best of the free mail clients (and excellent calendar) out there

 

- TrueCrypt for creating obvious or hidden encrypted disks, files etc

- KeePass for saving all those passwords with strong encryption

- JDownloader for those big video files etc that come from sites with passwords and Captchas

- AusLogics for a better disk defragmenter

- Comodo and Clam or Antivir for firewall and virus protection

- Foxit for pdf reading

- Speedcrunch and Calcute for calculators

 

Enough already :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What if I shared a great chart setup and strategy that became so well known, and used, that the markets had to change because so many people where taking so much money out of the system, that the system would collapse?

 

This is an interesting area, and one where trading rooms have some odd views. Some have the view of trying to get enough people doing the same thing to be able to collectively move a market (although collectively moving it towards their stops is the only result I've ever seen). Surely if you are selling your strategy and telling people when to hit the buy/sell button a pile of money will come along and crush it eventually you would think, but I haven't seen it happen yet.

 

The big hedge funds sort of suffered this problem as more of their traders and researchers broke away to start up in competition with their own version of the same theme. In many ways they point to this being the reason for the massive leverage that was employed when the CDO markets started to implode, resulting in magnified losses. The leverage was used to try and squeeze more out of a declining revenue source. The strategies they were using tend to be more complex than that of the standard trader though, so how much does this really effect your ability to pick a good stock on a good trend?

 

I've watched my mentors give the same basic construct to people for 7 years now. Not many of those who received that information understood how to use it properly and survived over the longer term. Others turned it into tidy profits. At times we do all trip over each other when piling into the same stock at the same time with the same broker without any collaboration other than having the same basic idea, but we work around these things, and others getting onboard are creating this issue as well who may have different trading ideas. In a bull market everybody wants in. At the end of the day it's not a game changer though.

 

Given the decades it took for the returns to start to slim down in the massive world of hedge funds, you will be making a tidy sum as a private trader before you get anywhere near those sorts of trading volumes (and in reality you just never would, you'd stop growing to start spending/enjoying at some stage).

 

I think it comes down to your other point more - we don't want to hand over our years of blood sweat and tears to some slob to exploit without paying their dues to the market. Typically they don't understand the message anyway. Interpretation is in our experience. "trade with the trend", "but I am, my one minute chart has been trending for nearly an hour now....." :crap:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is an interesting area, and one where trading rooms have some odd views. Some have the view of trying to get enough people doing the same thing to be able to collectively move a market (although collectively moving it towards their stops is the only result I've ever seen). Surely if you are selling your strategy and telling people when to hit the buy/sell button a pile of money will come along and crush it eventually you would think, but I haven't seen it happen yet.

 

The big hedge funds sort of suffered this problem as more of their traders and researchers broke away to start up in competition with their own version of the same theme. In many ways they point to this being the reason for the massive leverage that was employed when the CDO markets started to implode, resulting in magnified losses. The leverage was used to try and squeeze more out of a declining revenue source. The strategies they were using tend to be more complex than that of the standard trader though, so how much does this really effect your ability to pick a good stock on a good trend?

 

I've watched my mentors give the same basic construct to people for 7 years now. Not many of those who received that information understood how to use it properly and survived over the longer term. Others turned it into tidy profits. At times we do all trip over each other when piling into the same stock at the same time with the same broker without any collaboration other than having the same basic idea, but we work around these things, and others getting onboard are creating this issue as well who may have different trading ideas. In a bull market everybody wants in. At the end of the day it's not a game changer though.

 

Given the decades it took for the returns to start to slim down in the massive world of hedge funds, you will be making a tidy sum as a private trader before you get anywhere near those sorts of trading volumes (and in reality you just never would, you'd stop growing to start spending/enjoying at some stage).

 

I think it comes down to your other point more - we don't want to hand over our years of blood sweat and tears to some slob to exploit without paying their dues to the market. Typically they don't understand the message anyway. Interpretation is in our experience. "trade with the trend", "but I am, my one minute chart has been trending for nearly an hour now....." :crap:

 

I know they exist, but I have never seen a system where there wasn't some discretion involved. I don't think there is something you could tell some slob that he could make work. Even if it were a "clean" system with no personal discretion required, there are other things like discipline etc, that would make it unusable to the "slob".

 

I have had people who, I assume, (because they told me), are profitable traders, show me what they are doing and I can always point out a place on the chart and say, "why didn't you do it there?" and the answer will be something like, "I don't know, it just didn't look right so I didn't take it". That sort of says to me that, without the years of screen time, the system is not really a system, but just some parameters that someone has put on his entries and exits, but the system itself, is in the head...

 

I remember for some reason, many decades ago, my Dad teaching me to ride a bike. He kept saying, "turn in the direction you are falling". That's the basic idea, but we all know there is more to it than that. The only way is to keep falling till you stop falling. After that you can work on speed and jumping over tires in the back yard or whatever...

 

All that said, if I were successful, I would probably not say too much about what I was doing exactly. But if my brother or son or wife were to ask, I would tell them all...

 

Of course, then there's the problem of being a good teacher. Every one of my kids came to me at some point and ask me to teach them to play guitar. I failed miserably. My teaching was not good. On the other hand, maybe they were not good pupils or just not ready to learn, or thought it would be easier so quit or... There are tons of variables in the teacher/student relationship that are impossible to define.

 

Still the idea of taking the approach to yourself as if you were trying to teach someone else how to trade definitely has some merit...

 

:confused:

OK, now my head hurts....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have had people who, I assume, (because they told me), are profitable traders, show me what they are doing and I can always point out a place on the chart and say, "why didn't you do it there?" and the answer will be something like, "I don't know, it just didn't look right so I didn't take it". That sort of says to me that, without the years of screen time, the system is not really a system, but just some parameters that someone has put on his entries and exits, but the system itself, is in the head...

 

You really notice this when you try to hard code a system. You are right, there is a lot of discretion in my system. I ignore a lot of stuff. I have forced myself to create rules as to why I do this. Coding a system up for automation or experts requires you to look at the screen and say "Ok, I wouldn't take this signal because of X,Y and Z, now how do I code that..." A few things require so many lines of code to filter right, or are so complex, that I've just shelved the idea of the "perfectly coded" system for now. I continue to think it over and make notes though. I think in time I will answer all those questions as well. Part of it is simply cutting a lot of "fat" out of the system that I think is important, but probably isn't over the longer term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You really notice this when you try to hard code a system. You are right, there is a lot of discretion in my system. I ignore a lot of stuff. I have forced myself to create rules as to why I do this. Coding a system up for automation or experts requires you to look at the screen and say "Ok, I wouldn't take this signal because of X,Y and Z, now how do I code that..." A few things require so many lines of code to filter right, or are so complex, that I've just shelved the idea of the "perfectly coded" system for now. I continue to think it over and make notes though. I think in time I will answer all those questions as well. Part of it is simply cutting a lot of "fat" out of the system that I think is important, but probably isn't over the longer term.

 

I know nothing about coding. So it will all have to be me if I am ever to make it...

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have had people who, I assume, (because they told me), are profitable traders, show me what they are doing and I can always point out a place on the chart and say, "why didn't you do it there?" and the answer will be something like, "I don't know, it just didn't look right so I didn't take it". That sort of says to me that, without the years of screen time, the system is not really a system, but just some parameters that someone has put on his entries and exits, but the system itself, is in the head...

 

....

 

That statement right there probably sums up a lot of the reason why most traders find very little success in trading.

One of the most common misconceptions of the retail trader: "I am a trader there fore I should be in the market any time it moves" Randomness is one of the biggest enemies of the retail trader. If you are trading with an edge then your obvious goal is to wait for the market to be in an area where you want to conduct business and for all of your conditions for entry to line up.....everything else is just noise. (Unless you're gambling of course...then go ahead and trade every move) Just because a move might look obvious after the fact (don't they all) doesn't mean that before the fact it was nothing more then a 50/50 proposition.

 

As Jimmy Rogers said " I wait for the money to be sitting in the corner and all i have to do is walk over and pick it up"

:2c:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know nothing about coding. So it will all have to be me if I am ever to make it...

:)

 

It's actually far simpler than I imagined when I finally went down this path. There are plenty of people here to help out, just make it a side project. It'll make you think about how you trade also which may lead you to some new interesting ideas based on old themes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JEH,

 

I definitely know what you are going through, and I feel for you. I spent about 18 months tearing my hair out, lying on a hotel bed in my boxers crying my eyes out, screaming when nobody was home, etc.. At my darkest point, I would take trades expecting to be stopped out every time. The dark side of me was almost satisfied when I would reach my loss limit for the day. Now I am still a small lot piker, but I am comfortable with a little supplemental income until I have the sack to up my contract size. Some things that helped me get over the hump were:

 

1. I stopped going to trading forums for about 6 months!

2. I made and kept a promise that I would not trade real again until I could go 3 months being consistently profitable on SIM.

3. I analyzed if the way I was trading was actually working for me. Did I enjoy how I was approaching the market? Did I believe in the system I was trying to perfect? When I realized that I didn't, it helped me completely clean the slate and start from scratch on my own, without any pointers from trading sites, vendors, etc.

4. Once I found what I wanted to use to help me make trading decisions, I kept track of every stat I could think of along the way. This helped me realize that my trading signals were actually the most successful during only a very small window of time (7:00 - 8:30 PST). Once I realized this, I stopped trying to look at the market every second of the day, and that distance lowered my stress level and allowed me to really focus when it counted.

5. My trading improved when I did this, but I was still hovering around b/e. I knew I was better off than before, but not quite there. At that point I started scouring the internet with a new perspective. I believed in my approach, so I only searched for information that I thought would improve MY approach. I ignored everything else. That being said, I came across an interview with a trader made famous (or infamous) on another forum. This interview alone was my lightbulb moment. I read it, and looked at the chart, and then saw something that now I can't "unsee". Here is the link ( I apologize in advance if I'm not allowed to post links) :

 

Trader Y: Parting words from a now retired super-trader

 

I hope it helps!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I realize now that I didn't really even address the original point of the thread, so sorry about that!

 

Now I come on here to kill time, and for a bit of amusement. I think I have a hope of finding a small group of people to skype with or something during the trading day to hang with, but I don't even know how to go about that really.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Good post Robert,

 

I recently decide to use as much free software as possible and you mention of mindjet (of which I own an early version) made me think to list what I found useful. Someone else might like:

 

- Freemind is a free mind mapping tool that is good

- yEd Graph Editor is a tool like Visio for drawing flow charts etc and is excellent

- OpenOffice is a 100% free substitute for office originally developed as Sun Office

- ChromePlus is the best non-google version of the open source Google Chrome browser

- Thunderbird is the best of the free mail clients (and excellent calendar) out there

 

- TrueCrypt for creating obvious or hidden encrypted disks, files etc

- KeePass for saving all those passwords with strong encryption

- JDownloader for those big video files etc that come from sites with passwords and Captchas

- AusLogics for a better disk defragmenter

- Comodo and Clam or Antivir for firewall and virus protection

- Foxit for pdf reading

- Speedcrunch and Calcute for calculators

 

Enough already :)

 

Worthy of it's own thread :D

 

Had planned to answer the OP but most has been said. Forums are well .....forums, they haven't changed much from BBS's (Bulletin Board Systems) that pre date the WWW by an age and even the commercial availability of the internet (that is waaaay older than the WWW). People hang out that share an interest, that's about as far as it goes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want to say thanks to everyone for the posts in this thread. It was fun. A lot of good insight and suggestions.

 

...and supposedly I get to take my wife out to eat the next time I make the two hour trek through the snow to the big city... That will be nice.

 

Looks like it is going to be a snowy year here, we got another 5" today. We have lots of weekend trips coming up, out of town for pee-wee hockey games, my son has been practicing for a few weeks now since they started making ice here. I've come to enjoy a good hockey game and I'm hoping to see some this year.

 

Winter has started for sure...

 

I took the last week away from the charts and probably will extend that till after Thanksgiving. Then, hopefully I will be somewhat caught up on my other work and can focus with a fresh mind.

 

Thanks again for the responses...

 

John

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EoNd_maBbY]YouTube - James Taylor - Sweet Baby James[/ame]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 7th May 2024. Dow Jones Close To 1-Month High, Eyes on Disney Earnings. The stock market trades at a 3-week high after significant support from the latest earning reports and US employment data. Economists continue to expect a rate cut no earlier than September 2024 despite the US unemployment rate rising to 3.9%. The US Dollar Index trades higher on Tuesday and fully corrects the decline from NFP Friday. Dow Jones investors wait for Disney to release their latest quarterly earnings data. The stock holds a weight of 1.93%. USDJPY – The US Dollar Regains Lost Ground The USDJPY is an interesting pair on Tuesday as the US Dollar is the best performing currency within the market while the Yen is witnessing the strongest decline. Investors will continue to monitor as we enter the European Cash Open to ensure no significant changes. The exchange rate has been declining since the 29th of April when the Japanese Government is believed to have intervened and strengthened the Yen. However, the US Dollar has been gaining over the past 24 hours. During this morning’s Asian Session, the exchange rate trades 0.44% higher. Currently the only concern for the US Dollar is the latest employment data which illustrates a potential slowing employment sector. However, investors are quick to point out that this cannot be known simply from 1 weak month. This is the first time the NFP data read lower since November 2023. No major data is in the calendar for the next two days which can influence the US Dollar. Despite the weaker employment data and lower wage growth, investors continue to predict a rate cut no earlier than September 2024. This is something which can also be seen on the CME FedWatch Tool, which shows a 34.3% chance of rates remaining unchanged in September. In regard to the Japanese Yen, most analysts expect the next rate increase in the second half of this year depending on a stable movement of inflation. In addition, investors are monitoring the actions of financial authorities, expecting new currency interventions from them against a weakening Yen. This is the main concern for investors speculating against the Yen. However, economists continue to advise the Yen will struggle to gain even with a small rate hike, unless the rest of the financial world starts cutting rates. USA30 – Investors Turn To Disney Earnings Data! The Dow Jones is close to trading at a 1-month high and is also trading slightly higher this morning. The index recently has been supported by the latest employment data which indicates a higher possibility of rate cuts by the Fed. Today investors focus on the quarterly earnings report for Disney. Disney stocks are trading 0.37% higher during this morning’s pre-trading hours indicating investors believe the report will be positive. So far this year the stock is trading 28.40% higher and is one of the better performing stocks. Yesterday, the stock rose by 2.47% but remains significantly lower than its all-time high of $197. Currently analysts believe the earnings data will either be similar to the previous quarter or slightly lower. If earnings and revenue read higher, the stock is likely to continue rising. The stock is the 22nd most influential stock for the Dow Jones and will only influence the USA30 and USA500, not the USA100. Currently, technical analysis continues to indicate a strong price sentiment. The price trades above the 75-bar EMA and above the VWAP. In addition to this, the RSI is trading at 68.11 which also signals buyers are controlling the market. The only concern for traders is retracements. A weaker retracement could decline to $38,703, whereas a stronger retracement can fall back to $38,571. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • ECL Ecolab stock breakout, from Stocks To Watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?ECL
    • COST Costco stock nice breakout follow through, https://stockconsultant.com/?COST
    • $DG Dollar General stock possible downtrend reversal, attempting to move higher off the 136.7 triple+ support area, https://stockconsultant.com/?DG
    • NFLX Netflix stock big rally off the 553.28 support area, https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.