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Is It Possible to Trade ES with Lower Lot Sizes? Such As Micro
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By Ninjatrader_Staff · Posted
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 1st October 2020.Brexit headlines driving the markets.The UK currency took a sharp rotation lower on Brexit related developments. Weighing were reports that the EU and UK are struggling on key issues in trade negotiations, and with the European Commission president von de Leyen announcing that the EU has taken the first step in a legal infringement procedure against the UK in relation to the controversial Internal Market Bill. However later on an FT report cited UK officials with inside knowledge saying that the EU and UK have reached a compromise on the state aid issue, contrary to an earlier Reuters article, which had cited EU sources. Fishing rights remains a sticking point, apparently.The EU recovery fund is likely to be delayed just as nearly all European countries are ratcheting up Covid restrictions. And this comes amid the ECB campaign of verbal intervention to keep a lid on the Euro. Similar messaging from other central banks, including the BoE and RBA, has also contributed to an overall weakening in the strongly bearish Dollar bias that forex market participants had until recently. The rhetorical interjections countervail the impact of the Fed’s regime shift to a lower-for-longer stance on interest rates.In Europe, positive Covid test results have continued to soar in most countries. Covid hospitalisations and mortality, while bumping higher over the last week in many countries, still remain at basement levels relative to the March/April peak. The ratio between Covid-caused death and flu- and pneumonia-caused death also remains low, again contrasting markedly to the March/April situation. Nonetheless, the trend in most countries in Europe is for tighter restrictions and more localized lockdowns, which should limit the upside scope of the Euro.EURUSD earlier posted a 9-day high at 1.1769. EURJPY gained, too, with both the Dollar and Yen having softened amid a backdrop of mostly higher global stock markets. EURGBP dove about 90 pips in returning to levels around 0.9065-75. Heads of state will bring the issue to a resolution at the October 15th-16th EU summit. The odds for a deal being struck now appear much greater, though how extensive any deal will be remains uncertain, and there is a risk that the UK will see a downward jolt in its terms of trade when it leaves the EU’s single market on January 1.European stock markets have pared early gains. The UK100 outperformed as the Pound sold off and the UK Gilt future is currently down by 0.2%, while the GER30 underperformed and lost most of its early gains amid the rise in local virus case numbers and with Bayer AG under pressure after a profit warning. This comes in contrast to the European final manufacturing PMIs, which confirmed the improvement in sentiment.The UKGilt has had a key downside move that is potentially outlook changing, breaking the 200-Day MA and resuming the 2-month downtrend. The UKGilt is heading towards the support band 135.30/135.00. The rebound from 134.20 to 136.98 last week is now the medium term resistance area. Given the deterioration in momentum we have seen, with RSI into the 40s and MACD lines sustaining a move into negative area, the outlook is becoming increasingly worrying for the bulls. If this 200-Day MA at 136 continues to be seen as a sell zone, the downside pressure will grow. Initial Support, at 50% Retracement level on year’s rally and 50-week SMA, is a key level. If this is breached on a closing basis it would open 132.80-132.00 which is the year’s low area, however a strong obstacle will be the 61.8% fib level at 134.00. How the market reacts around 134.00 would then be the key as to whether this is a near term upswing or something far more bearish.Generally though investor sentiment was boosted by headlines suggesting progress on the next US stimulus package, and US futures are up 0.8 to 1.3%, with the USA100 outperforming. The vote on the Democratic proposal was delayed to give negotiators more time to come up with a compromise deal as Fed officials warn against delaying a new aid deal until next year.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
"The politicians are put there to give you the idea that you have freedom of choice. You don’t. You have no choice. You have owners. They own you. They own everything. They own all the important land. They own and control the corporations. They’ve long since bought and paid for the Senate, the Congress, the state houses, the city halls. They got the judges in their back pockets and they own all the big media companies, so they control just about all of the news and information you get to hear. They got you by the balls. They spend billions of dollars every year lobbying. Lobbying to get what they want. Well, we know what they want. They want more for themselves and less for everybody else, but I’ll tell you what they don’t want. They don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking. They don’t want well-informed, well-educated people capable of critical thinking. They’re not interested in that. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interests. They want obedient workers. Obedient workers, people who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork…. It’s a big club and you ain't in it. You and I are not in the big club. ...The table is tilted, folks. The game is rigged and nobody seems to notice…. Nobody seems to care. That’s what the owners count on…. It’s called the American Dream, 'cause you have to be asleep to believe it." George Carlin see https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/john_whiteheads_commentary/the_election_has_already_been_hijacked_and_the_winner_decided_we_the_people_lose -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 30th September 2020.ADP, NFP and the change in their correlation.Today ADP reported a 749k sure in private payroll employment in September, almost double the 400k expectation, after an upwardly revised 481k (was 428k) increase in August.There were solid gains across industries. The service sector added another 552k jobs, with the goods sector adding 196k. Manufacturing jobs were up a hefty 130k. In services, trade/transport posted a big 186k gain, while leisure/hospitality jobs increased 92k, and education/health employment was up 90k. Professional/business services added 78k jobs. The ADP gains have massively undershot improvement in BLS payrolls and other labor market indicators since the growth rebound began, suggesting that this could continue despite this month’s solid gain. However please note that during the pandemic year ADP has done an awful job as an indicator of NFP number. In general after since May we have seen the absence of correlation between the ADP employment change figures with Nonfarm Payrolls.The September Nonfarm Payroll gain is seen at 900k, as most measures of output extended their rebounds in September. Initial claims have slowly tightened, and we saw another big -1,912k continuing claims plunge between the August and September BLS survey weeks. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady from 8.4%, alongside a 0.8% September hours-worked increase with a 34.6 workweek and hourly earnings to be unchanged, following August’s 0.4% rise, as the measure gives back more of the 4.7% April pop with the shift in the composition of jobs back toward lower-paid workers. The nonfarm payroll forecast assumes a 1,075k private jobs increase.Seasonal Trends and WeatherFor disruptions to employment from weather as gauged in the household survey, the biggest disruptions occur in the winter months generally with the average peaking in February. There is an additional climb through the late-summer months due to disruptive hurricanes in some years. This September has seen hurricane activity but they’ve been less disruptive than some of the major events in years past, leaving modest upside weather-risk for payrolls. Of course, any weather related disruptions will be eclipsed by COVID-19.Hourly EarningsAs stated above, a flat figure for September average hourly earnings is anticipated, after gains of 0.4% in August and 0.2% in July, but drops of -1.3% in June and -1.1% in May, as we further unwind the 4.7% April surge. Job losses have been skewed toward lower paid retail, leisure and hospitality workers, and this prompted the April spike in average hourly earnings that is now being reversed. A 4.6% y/y increase in September from 4.7% in August is forecasted.Continuing and Initial ClaimsContinuing claims fell -1,912k between the September and August BLS survey weeks, after a drop of -2,459k between August and July, and a -2,280k drop between June and July survey. The economy is unwinding the 24,912k continuing claims peak in the second week of May. Initial claims fell to 866k in the September BLS survey week from 1,104k in the August survey week, and 1,422k in the July survey week. The September initial claims anticipate to average at 870k from 992k in August.ConclusionEmployment should rose further with output in September, despite delayed stimulus and ongoing disruptions in the re-opening process. The September hours-worked is expected to increase of 0.8%, with a 34.6 workweek, while hourly earnings remain flat. The jobless rate should hold steady at 8.4%, leaving the rate below the 9.98% cycle-high from the last recession in October of 2009.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 29th September 2020.Time for the first face-off.The first presidential debate is due to take place today, ahead of an election that is turning into a major event risk. At the same time markets are waiting for developments on further US stimulus measures as US Democrats released a USD 2.2 trillion proposal in a bid to break the deadlock in talks with Republicans. The debate is at 01:00 GMT while the focus turns on any potential market fallout especially as it coincides with indications of a possible approval of the fiscal stimulus but crucial with the approach of month- and quarter-end which could exacerbate volatility.Additionally in the US this week, there is also the threat of massive layoffs/furloughs from the airlines come October 1 as the CARES package provisions expire. Data remains thin for now. September consumer confidence headlines Tuesday, and is followed Wednesday with the ADP private payroll report, September ISM, vehicle sales, August income and consumption. Thursday has the high frequency jobless claims before Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls release.Now in regards to tonight’s debate, the importance of it does not rely solely due to the fact that is the every first debate but mainly because it might present the clear winner especially this year in which the candidates have not been as highly visible with limited campaigns done because of Covid-19.The candidates will be questioned for 90 minutes, without commercial breaks, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates. Ahead of the debate the vulnerable one look to be Trump following a New York time report that the president paid no income tax for 11 years. However is an excellent brutally effective debater so it will interesting to see how he will overcome any attacks. Please note that in some states voting has already started via mail or in person.The debate will take place at Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, while the topics selected by Wallace, moderator of the first 2020 presidential debate, are the: The Trump and Biden Records The Supreme Court Covid-19 The Economy Race and Violence in our Cities The Integrity of the Election Below you can also find the latest national polls prior the debate.Based on UBS research below we enclose the campaign policy platform of each Party:What is the 2020 Republican Party platform?President Trump abandoned the usual practice of endorsing a lengthy campaign policy platform in conjunction with the GOP national nominating convention. Instead, he released an abbreviated written agenda for a planned second term in office. The GOP policy statement is largely aspirational, with fewer details than one is accustomed to seeing from a presidential candidate. The president’s proposed fiscal policies include additional tax cuts for individuals and federal tax credits and deductions for corporations that repatriate jobs to the US from overseas locations. The statement also explicitly supports additional capital gains tax relief through an expansion of the Opportunity Zone program.Numerous provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, but the president does not discuss how the resulting tax hikes will be averted. Absent additional congressional action, the individual income tax cuts, an increase in the standard deduction, and the expanded child tax credit will all revert to prior levels in just over five years. Voters are left to assume that the president will be able to convince Congress to make the tax cuts permanent.The policy statement, which was released in conjunction with his acceptance speech, also focuses on the adoption of a more adversarial posture toward China, strict enforcement of immigration laws, and support for law enforcement personnel. While all three are viewed by the GOP as winning campaign strategies, the reference to “ending our reliance on China” suggests that the president is willing to continue to use tariffs as a tool of foreign policy if elected to a second term. He has threatened to selectively impose tariffs upon, and to strip government contracts from, companies that refuse to relocate their operations to the US.Meanwhile, in a rare instance of tacit agreement with his challenger, the president reaffirmed a desire to cut prescription drug prices, lower healthcare insurance premiums, and require coverage of all preexisting conditions. On the whole, the impact of the president’s policies on Treasury receipts (and on the US economy generally) is difficult to calculate. Whether or not this is purposeful is debatable, but the inevitable conclusion is that a second Trump administration would be similar to the first and forced to rely on deficit financing to accomplish its goals.What is the 2020 Democratic Party platform?In contrast to the president’s abridged policy statement, the Democratic Party platform is a protracted recitation of policies as disparate as the need for federal bankruptcy reform, a Green New Deal, and reinvestment in rural America. The Biden campaign has not released a consolidated fiscal plan but instead weaved his call for higher taxes to partially fund a series of spending proposals related to infrastructure investment, climate change, and an expansion of healthcare coverage. At its core, however, the Biden campaign is focused on strengthening the federal regulatory regime, reversing many of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and increasing federal funding of long-time Democratic policy priorities.The former vice president advocates an increase in the highest marginal tax rate to 39.6%, and higher payroll taxes for individuals earning more than USD 400,000 a year. He also proposes to tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income for taxpayers earning more than USD 1 million. The corporate tax rate is targeted for an increase, albeit less than the rate prevalent before the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The corporate tax rate would increase from 21% to 28%, and an alternative minimum tax of 15% would be levied on companies that report more than USD 100 million in book income.The Democratic campaign platform also takes aim at the estate tax by recommending a reduction in the exemption to USD 3.5 million and the elimination of the stepped-up basis rule. Tax preferences for the fossil fuel industry would be eliminated, while those for energy efficiency would be increased. With the exception of the payroll tax increase, most of Biden’s fiscal policy platform could be implemented with a majority vote in the Senate through budget reconciliation.The Tax Policy Center has estimated that Biden’s tax proposals would increase federal revenue by about USD 4 trillion between 2021 and 2030, or 1.5% of GDP over a decade.1 Roughly half of the revenue gain would be derived from higher taxes on US households, with the remainder coming from businesses and corporations. The Tax Foundation expects the Biden tax plan to reduce after-tax income for the top 1% of taxpayers by 7.8%. The top 5% would see their after-tax income drop by 1.1%, with diminishing reductions thereafter as income declines.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
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