Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Snow Dog

Higher Lows Lower Highs

Recommended Posts

We had a -4 re-entry on gu and missed ej running its stops.

 

 

 

Did get this lh pullback to psych level for +33.

 

I have some trade rules for 7RB but nothing formal to confirm a strategy. I have made some notes on the blog on this Vantage fx and there will be more to come no doubt.

3.gif.41538d94c853345e0917c7a476ab7612.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wasn't in front of computer for this one.

 

EJ almost gets to 106, and bounces some 70 pips. Then it falls to 25 level and the bounces get smaller and smaller. Smaller bounces from a level is a high prob signal that the level will fail.

 

When the right set up occurs, 1hr down, 15 min down, 5 min lh with little/low lower wick on set up candle there's a good chance its going to break through.

 

If you got in earlier bounces and got out keep going if bounces are smaller. Its amazing how often these set ups occur and work out.

1.gif.b9ff81c0011e33897f06ad395362f3e2.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We sold the 2b set up right at the top but as is usually the case got out at BE when we hit +8/9 a couple of times and it seemed like it just didn't want to go.

 

Entered a little later again. This was against pos close 15 min candles but 15 min had upper wick and the vol in move up on 5 min clearly falling away. The res area is clearly shown on 5 min at the 5565 W pivot. The 7RB entry was there but showing the 5 min as for us it just seemed to show the res area clearer. Exit at psych level +23.

 

We then had a later re-entry 7RB lh below psych level exited for small loss when it never followed through.

2.gif.07f9eb087199d8f9939265d242e8ce21.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CII divergence on 1hr, 30 min, 15 min and 5 min. Dble top, 15 min doji. Entry taken when 7RB showed div and neg close.

 

Target run down to 50 level. I had to pop out and missed the perfect system lh trades that followed

1.gif.a2b21c4c6dd934931d968e19d5d58224.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We missed the 2b sell below 5425 level on the 7RB chart. The multi bottom earlier 5355 with CII divergence buy was a little early for us. Nice set up though.

 

We took this lh and just waited for DO 5392 to clear.

 

Exit +24 when 5360 held a few times.

1.gif.0df25952c05caff65fcdb28ec129bb62.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snow Dog - thanks for all the posts and analysis. Like you, I do spend some time focusing on the GBPUSD. Of late, I have been trading quite a bit in the futures equivalent -- using the BP futures. It works out to be $6.25 per pip, I get very quick executions and typically just pay commissions with only minimal slip. I think I come out ahead when I compare it with paying fixed spreads on spot currency. But, who knows.

 

I was busy today on the BP but ultimately ended up about break-even after costs. I did comeback though from an early long you can see that I entered near the high (oops) -- but managed to catch at least some of the decline.

 

You can see I trade off of Renko charts as well so a bit different than time/tick.

 

MMS

bpfutures.jpg.f2ae50003d74fc0fbb5de9d6943c645b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd love to see more trade examples MMS. I've always heard that renko charts can be deceiving on how they are formed and that for backtesting purposes you can't really take the fill prices to be valid... am I mis-remembering something.

 

Ever have issues with them?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are right. There are issues you have to account for because definitely, they do not plot every tick/pip point.

 

On the example I'm using a 10 pip renko bar. So, if the price closes a bar and then goes up 7 pips but not 10, and then starts to sell-off and goes down 10 pips (from the lower of the most recent bar printed) you'll never see that move of 7 pips to the upside.

 

It will only complete a brick if there's a full 10 pips above the high of the most recent bar, or below the low. Like bricks being stacked on top of each other, etc...

 

For that reason I only trade it a certain way. Where my entry is either at the close of the renko bar, or a full increment above/below -- meaning 10 pips higher than the high if I'm buying, or 10 pips below if I'm selling (or whatever length renko you are using) -- then I make sure my targets are some multiple of the renko bar size -- let's say 3x that renko bar so in this case 30 pips. Same with the stop.

 

This way I know that I will always see my actionable items on the chart -- nothing will magically disappear which would happen if you are willing to trade on numbers "inside" of the renko bar.

 

If you do any automation it's a great (read: bad) way to get amazing results -- that end up not being replicated in real-time since those bad trades go away as phantom trades - but in reality you are actually in them. I learned that the hard way with renko.

 

Once you work with it this way though I really do like them at least for certain markets where I'm trying to trade in a way not to capture every twist and turn - or small move. The ones where I'm trying to capture the major move for that session or market hours I'm trading since much of the other smaller noise gets filtered out.

 

Hope that helps a bit.

 

MMS

 

 

 

I'd love to see more trade examples MMS. I've always heard that renko charts can be deceiving on how they are formed and that for backtesting purposes you can't really take the fill prices to be valid... am I mis-remembering something.

 

Ever have issues with them?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Snow Dog - thanks for all the posts and analysis. Like you, I do spend some time focusing on the GBPUSD. Of late, I have been trading quite a bit in the futures equivalent -- using the BP futures. It works out to be $6.25 per pip, I get very quick executions and typically just pay commissions with only minimal slip. I think I come out ahead when I compare it with paying fixed spreads on spot currency. But, who knows.

 

I was busy today on the BP but ultimately ended up about break-even after costs. I did comeback though from an early long you can see that I entered near the high (oops) -- but managed to catch at least some of the decline.

 

You can see I trade off of Renko charts as well so a bit different than time/tick.

 

MMS

 

These are constant range bars that I have used, not sure if I will continue with them or use 1 min as before.

 

They are a little different from Renko bars. CRB's form over the chosen number of pips and candles can overlap, I chose &RB's. Renko it seems does not allow candles to overlap they have no wick and only build up or down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One other quick thing about constant range bars/CRB or range bars. There are two different kinds.

 

When you use a plugin on Metatrader for example it doesn't typically allow any overlap of the high or low of the range bar to the open of the next bar.

 

Whereas if you are in Tradestation for example, their "Range Bar" allows the next bar to open equal to the high or low of the prior range bar.

 

If you want to set-up a matching Range Bar to something you'd see on Metatrader from within Tradestation you actually have to use what they call "Momentum Bars" -- Tradestation has both and this is the difference.

 

Might seem like a small difference but if you're using indicators to trade it actually will likely end up with very different trades as the charts will be different. Not drastically but enough to change set-ups.

 

Just an FYI.

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
One other quick thing about constant range bars/CRB or range bars. There are two different kinds.

 

When you use a plugin on Metatrader for example it doesn't typically allow any overlap of the high or low of the range bar to the open of the next bar.

 

Whereas if you are in Tradestation for example, their "Range Bar" allows the next bar to open equal to the high or low of the prior range bar.

 

If you want to set-up a matching Range Bar to something you'd see on Metatrader from within Tradestation you actually have to use what they call "Momentum Bars" -- Tradestation has both and this is the difference.

 

Might seem like a small difference but if you're using indicators to trade it actually will likely end up with very different trades as the charts will be different. Not drastically but enough to change set-ups.

 

Just an FYI.

 

MMS

 

Cheers

I have brought in CRB's and Mrs V (or should I say Mrs Snow Dog?) likes a lot. I'm not totally convinced if its better than 1 min. In trend CRB's get good reactions to levels I must say.

 

Anyway missed the trade at the top, nice lh on 7RB chart, out +17 after stall.

1.gif.96c253f683f0ae414336a14a9f41bca2.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice trade - glad to see you giving CRB's a try.

 

Early in my trading career I only day traded with time intervals -- usually 1M, 2M, 3M and 5M. I never made any money.

 

Later I switched to tick bars and things started to turn around for me.

 

Now I tend to oscillate between tick, range bars (CRB) and renko bars. I do much better.

 

Time intervals I now only use when I'm looking for the big picture, maybe a bigger swing trade.

 

I'm sure there are plenty who do just fine on time intervals day trading but I think those work best when you're trading off of support/resistance areas and not off of oscillators -- when you are using oscillators for your indicators and signals I think CRB, tick, etc... work better.

 

At least for me. Thanks for posting the chart.

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1hr dragonfly doji which could not break high of prev positive close candle. 15 min LO dragonfly doji also.

 

Sold the shooting star lh, little lower wick. Target 50 psych level out a little early.

1.gif.e3c64f20e73868ec289b89fe62b4c393.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looks like a news based decline on that one given the spike down - I got in a little late at 1.5533 so had to bailout on the bounce back - you did better catching it before it was more fully developed.

 

Pips is pips!! I have to stay in longer, had a tough few weeks though missing entries which snow balled to a minor crisis in confidence. Just happy to bank some. Took a while to just calm down to a panic, system works, whats a tough week or two in big pic - nothing. Nicely back on track now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just got back had to pop out. Did get this lh earlier. EJ 1 hr down, 15 min had a hammer, pos close on lower vol and then a neg close doji. Suggesting buyers not yet interested.

 

5 min had had lower highs, lower lows and we were still on lh. Target was RN out +16 when that failed to reach.

2.gif.11008b4b0ae4733e052750f0d6d6a252.gif

3.gif.ceccb0439ae9cc6683b525271178f9d8.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We missed the hl buy at 5750 (Mrs V's bleeding has stopped nicely) and had to wait a while for this one.

 

A big run up tp 5800, a 15 min neg close then a 15 min shooting star. Sold the low of 5 min doji (the only time we'll trade a wick in direction of a trade ie a doji) which was the 2nd lh, exited +32 at the target 50 level.

1.gif.8ee6ccdd289187a46faffacdac10e70b.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A couple of 'other trades'. This one after good 15 min hammers at extreme, 1 min hl entry candle little/low upper wick.

 

Out +20. Mrs V saying exit at 6041 W M3, I had 50 level as target, thats fine though.

2.gif.ffea1846e6638f62b82c90f4f2289663.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We missed a hl re-entry on gu as price ran really quick above 6050 and we couldn't get on.

 

Not a typical trade for me but I couldn't resist. 15 min hl/2b, bull flag, exit at Y's high +20.

 

Pretty sure its going higher but I have to pop out and then its US news.

1.gif.380ccf84b4fef3ae2c34197a2f8341ef.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Today I caught a good runner on the GBPUSD see attached. Better than yesterday when my buy attempt faltered and had to exit at my stop -- so able to redeem today.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=22796&stc=1&d=1288791049

 

I typically look at the 1hr charts as a set up, looks like you trade from them, nice one.

 

A 1hr hl/lh in direction of trend normally does give good moves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • NFLX Netflix stock, nice move, hit target 1, https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences stock range breakout watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?NBIX
    • RTX stock, nice close with a flat top breakout above 102.77, https://stockconsultant.com/?RTX
    • Date: 8th May 2024. Market News – Stocks mixed; Yen support still on; Eyes on NFP & Apple tonight   Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   As the Fed maintained a “high-for-longer” stance, stocks gave up their gains with attention turning back to earnings. Chair Powell and the Fed were not as hawkish as feared and the markets reacted immediately and in textbook fashion to the still dovish policy stance. The Fed flagged that recent disappointing inflation readings could make rate cuts a while in coming, but Fed chief Jerome Powell characterized the risk of more hikes as “unlikely,” giving some solace to markets. Stocks traded mixed across Asia, while in Europe, DAX and FTSE futures are finding buyers and US futures are also in demand, after the Fed’s message. Yen: Another suspected intervention by authorities, this time in late New York trading, ran into resistance from traders keen to keep selling the currency. Swiss CPI lifted to 1.4% y/y in April from 1.0% y/y in the previous month. Headline numbers are still at low levels and base effects play a role, with the different timing of Easter this year also likely to distort the picture. That said, the numbers may not question the SNB’s decision to cut rates, but they do not support another rate cut in June. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex has corrected to 105.58, but USDJPY is already inching higher again, after a sharp drop to a low of 153.04 on Tuesday that sparked fresh intervention speculation. The pair is currently trading at 155.38. Treasury yields plunged and were down over double digits before profit taking set in. USOIL finished with a -3.6% loss to $79.00, the lowest since March 12. Currently it is as $79.53. Gold was up 1.4% to $2319.55 per ounce, reclaiming the $2300 level. Market Trends:   Wall Street climbed initially with gains of 1.4% on the NASDAQ, 1.2% on the Dow, and 0.96% on the S&P500. The NASDAQ and S&P500 closed with losses of -0.3%, while the Dow was 0.23% firmer. The Hang Seng rallied more than 2%, and the ASX also posting slight gains, while CSI 300 and Nikkei declined. Apple’s earnings report is due after the US market closes today, will give investors a better sense of how the iPhone maker is weathering a sales slump, due in part to a sluggish China market. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 7th May 2024. Dow Jones Close To 1-Month High, Eyes on Disney Earnings. The stock market trades at a 3-week high after significant support from the latest earning reports and US employment data. Economists continue to expect a rate cut no earlier than September 2024 despite the US unemployment rate rising to 3.9%. The US Dollar Index trades higher on Tuesday and fully corrects the decline from NFP Friday. Dow Jones investors wait for Disney to release their latest quarterly earnings data. The stock holds a weight of 1.93%. USDJPY – The US Dollar Regains Lost Ground The USDJPY is an interesting pair on Tuesday as the US Dollar is the best performing currency within the market while the Yen is witnessing the strongest decline. Investors will continue to monitor as we enter the European Cash Open to ensure no significant changes. The exchange rate has been declining since the 29th of April when the Japanese Government is believed to have intervened and strengthened the Yen. However, the US Dollar has been gaining over the past 24 hours. During this morning’s Asian Session, the exchange rate trades 0.44% higher. Currently the only concern for the US Dollar is the latest employment data which illustrates a potential slowing employment sector. However, investors are quick to point out that this cannot be known simply from 1 weak month. This is the first time the NFP data read lower since November 2023. No major data is in the calendar for the next two days which can influence the US Dollar. Despite the weaker employment data and lower wage growth, investors continue to predict a rate cut no earlier than September 2024. This is something which can also be seen on the CME FedWatch Tool, which shows a 34.3% chance of rates remaining unchanged in September. In regard to the Japanese Yen, most analysts expect the next rate increase in the second half of this year depending on a stable movement of inflation. In addition, investors are monitoring the actions of financial authorities, expecting new currency interventions from them against a weakening Yen. This is the main concern for investors speculating against the Yen. However, economists continue to advise the Yen will struggle to gain even with a small rate hike, unless the rest of the financial world starts cutting rates. USA30 – Investors Turn To Disney Earnings Data! The Dow Jones is close to trading at a 1-month high and is also trading slightly higher this morning. The index recently has been supported by the latest employment data which indicates a higher possibility of rate cuts by the Fed. Today investors focus on the quarterly earnings report for Disney. Disney stocks are trading 0.37% higher during this morning’s pre-trading hours indicating investors believe the report will be positive. So far this year the stock is trading 28.40% higher and is one of the better performing stocks. Yesterday, the stock rose by 2.47% but remains significantly lower than its all-time high of $197. Currently analysts believe the earnings data will either be similar to the previous quarter or slightly lower. If earnings and revenue read higher, the stock is likely to continue rising. The stock is the 22nd most influential stock for the Dow Jones and will only influence the USA30 and USA500, not the USA100. Currently, technical analysis continues to indicate a strong price sentiment. The price trades above the 75-bar EMA and above the VWAP. In addition to this, the RSI is trading at 68.11 which also signals buyers are controlling the market. The only concern for traders is retracements. A weaker retracement could decline to $38,703, whereas a stronger retracement can fall back to $38,571. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.