Cory2679's Log

[Cory2679 11]

Today's Trades

 

Oh, the humanity...-2.39R today...

[Cory2679 11]

Well, I just now pretty much went from really bummed to pretty excited.

 

It just clicked with me what's "wrong."

 

For the last couple of days, I've, without realizing it, basically reverted back to my "old" ways! (old meaning the last couple weeks)...I'm approaching everything almost the same way I was before I began only trading the EUR/USD, etc. (I won't go into details)...now that I've realized it, hopefully I can get right back on track!

 

The funny thing is, that was/is still true...and I felt like I traded solidly today, according to plan...even looking at my chart in hindsight, I think I did really well as far as the trades I took...even looking back now, I really wouldn't have done anything different (of course, maybe I should have...maybe I don't know what I'm doing at all! ).

 

Soo...what I think may be the problem now is my trade management...

 

I guess that's a project for over the weekend...and my trade management is pretty much 100% unambiguous at this point so that will make it easier to address and make changes to...

 

It's funny...my worst day in a while, yet I'm actually really not very bummed at all...because I addressed the problems I was having and identified yesterday, corrected them, and improved the trades I took today...it's just now I have a different problem, but I'm looking forward to working on it this weekend!

 

-Cory

[thalestrader 14]

Today's Trades

 

Oh, the humanity...-2.39R today...

 

 

Are you labeling each half position as a separate trade, or when you show, for example, "trades 18-19," is that two different trades?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Are you labeling each half position as a separate trade, or when you show, for example, "trades 18-19," is that two different trades?

 

When I label something like "trades 18-19," that means I took the trade, pulled out, then re-entered (hence two trades).

 

I count two halves of the same trade as one when it's split up for multiple PT reasons.

[Cory2679 11]

I'm sitting down now to work on my trade management strategy...here is what I had been doing...

 

- When I take the trade, I base my position size off of my theoretical initial risk...then, from the beginning, I set my stop-loss to -0.25R. So if my theoretical initial risk is 20 ticks, I'll set my stop at 5 ticks.

 

 

- I get taken out most of the time. Then I'll re-enter on a break of the high (long)/low (short).

- When I re-enter, I'll base my new stop-loss on the high that was created between my entry and my re-entry (short), or the low that was created between my entry and re-entry (long). I'll adjust my position size down if the new risk is larger than 1R.

 

 

So, that's how I manage entries/re-entries...here's how I manage PT's, etc...

 

First, I was trailing by "R"...so, when I was up 1R, I'd get to break-even, when I was up 2R, I'd move my stop to +1R, and so forth.

 

I set my profit targets based on Fibonacci Extensions...

 

Get to BE: 127% level

PT1: 161.8% level

Move stop to PT1: 227% level

PT2: 251.8% level

 

 

When price gets fairly close to a PT, and looks like it's going to reverse, I would pull it to lock in some profit...

 

Also, sometimes, if the chart was contrary to fib extensions/1R,2R levels, I would conform to the chart...

 

Trade 18 from yesterday was the exception to all this...since it was the NFP announcement, I gave it wiggle-room and set my PT to an arbitrary +2R...I figured if it broke on the news announcement, it would continue in that direction (I was wrong)...I usually just avoid news (NFP/FOMC)...

 

Edited March 6, 2010 by Cory2679

[Cory2679 11]

NOTE: The above post was submitted prematurely (I hit "Submit Reply" when I meant to hit "Preview Post"), so if anyone had viewed it prior to this post, you may want to look for changes that have been made, if you're interested.

 

-Cory

[Cory2679 11]

When I first began trading the approach I'm attempting to trade now, I had a much less aggressive approach with trade management...

 

Basically, I had 1 or 2 profit targets...no BE point, no pulling the ripcord, nothing....

 

EDIT: Well, actually I believe I was getting to BE after PT1 filled...

 

I would just trail my stop by natural stops...

 

I guess that's basically the other extreme of what I had been doing...

 

I'm almost leaning more in that direction again...with what I'm doing now, I'm so aggressive that I end up cutting profits short/chipping away at profits by pulling out and re-entering.

 

If I'm going to pull out and re-enter, I'm going to need to do it completely different...this just wasn't working out...

 

I looked back at my charts from the week, particularly Mon-Tues, and I'll see what appears to be a great winning trade on my chart, and I'll look at my results and I will have made something like 0.25R or 0.5R on it (EDIT: or worse...taken a loss!!). That's certainly a red flag to me.

Edited March 6, 2010 by Cory2679
"edit"

[Cory2679 11]

Well, I think that's pretty much what I've decided on...the post above! (This is subject to change before Monday.)

 

I'll choose a profit-target or two based on the fib extension tool...or S/R (if the fib tool doesn't line up with S/R on the chart).

 

I'll trail by natural stops...and I'll stop and maybe reverse if I get a "123" against my position.

 

I'll get to BE once PT1 has filled.

 

----------

 

The only thing left to work out is the ripcord situation...whether to even do it, if I do it...under what conditions?...if I do it, what is my plan for re-entry?...etc.

 

I'm leaning toward avoiding it altogether for the time being (due to my lack of skill/trigger happiness with it), but I haven't made up my mind 100%. I'm going to take a little break to get some other things done I have to do, then come back, review my plan, think more about the ripcord, etc.

 

----------

 

My only hesitation here is that I feel like I might not be cutting my losses aggressively enough!

 

But on the other hand, I do want to "give it room" to a certain extent.

 

I wonder if it's possible to do both...or if it's one or the other...

 

----------

 

Any thoughts?

[Cory2679 11]

I'm also considering revisiting range charts...

[sevensa 10]

I'm also considering revisiting range charts...

 

You seems to be changing the way you do things every few days and especially after you have a losing day or day. Have you considered following a plan consistently for at least two weeks and then review, instead of tinkering with it every few days? How would you know something isn't working or is working, if you never give it a chance?

 

I know I sound like a broken record, but I would strongly suggest that you create a plan that you can execute with as little ambiguity as possible and you stick to it for at least two weeks religiously and then review the results before making any changes to it.

[thalestrader 14]

You seems to be changing the way you do things every few days and especially after you have a losing day or day. Have you considered following a plan consistently for at least two weeks and then review, instead of tinkering with it every few days? How would you know something isn't working or is working, if you never give it a chance?

 

I know I sound like a broken record, but I would strongly suggest that you create a plan that you can execute with as little ambiguity as possible and you stick to it for at least two weeks religiously and then review the results before making any changes to it.

 

In addition to sevensa's suggestion (this must be close to the seventh time he's shared it with you), I would also suggest that no plan will help you if you trade with what seems to be utter disregard for what I call waves or swings, what others call market structure, what still others call context, etc. For example, do you know what the bell to bell time is for currencies - that is, we know that foreign exchange trades 24 hours/5.5 days per week, but when is the "open"? The "close"? And by open I do not mean when do you roll out of bed and by close I do not mean when do you head off for some afternoon delight. I mean do you even know when one day ends and the next begins in the minds of the pros with whom you are playing?

 

Here's another one - without looking at you chart - do not cheat - without looking at your chart - where were your first long trades taken in relation to the prior day's low? Where was your NFP short entry in relation to the prior day's low? Where was price in relation to the most recent pivot high and pivot low? I don't mean little swing highs and lows, I mean where did the market last pivot from a sustained LH's and LL's to a sustained run of HL's and HH's? Where was price when you were trading in relation to the midpoint of that range? What was your plan for the day?

 

For what its worth, I got long at the same level more or less as you did on your 2 or 3 long trades made during the Tokyo AM. I intended to risk 1R on the trade, but I came to my senses and pulled out with a negligible profit (some contracts filled at +1 tick, others at +/-0,so after commissions, we were talking pennies to the good). I say "came to my senses" because I usually will not enter prior to NFP. I did so because I was expecting that the ultimate direction for the day for the EURUSD to be a rally. However, after about an hour in the trade, watching vacillate from +12 to -8 and back again, I realized that if it were going to rally, it would already have started. Since it was not showing signs of impulse (hardly had signs of a pulse) I decided to pull it off the table and wait until the morning.

 

I had one trade on the 6E Friday, and it was a long, entered after NFP on a limit order placed before NFP. I closed 1/3 at 1.3590 and 2/3's at 1.3602. It was all according to plan (albeit an imperfect plan, as it was Friday - I'd have held it rather than closing it when I did had there been another day in the week). I was liquidating the longs when you were making repeated attempts to go short. So we were both selling at the same time, but I was selling to get flat, and you were selling to get short. Opening a new position at the time of the day at that time of the week never occurred to me.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited March 7, 2010 by thalestrader

[Cory2679 11]

...no plan will help you if you trade with what seems to be utter disregard for what I call waves or swings, what others call market structure, what still others call context, etc. For example, do you know what the bell to bell time is for currencies - that is, we know that foreign exchange trades 24 hours/5.5 days per week, but when is the "open"? The "close"? And by open I do not mean when do you roll out of bed and by close I do not mean when do you head off for some afternoon delight. I mean do you even know when one day ends and the next begins in the minds of the pros with whom you are playing?

 

I'm not sure I understand what you're asking...which to me probably means my answer is "no."

 

Of course I know what hours which countries are "open" and I know what hours the CME futures trade in the pit. But no, I couldn't tell you what "bell to bell" time is in "the minds of the pros"...unless you just mean 5pm EST - 5pm EST (Syndey open through NY close).

 

So, forgive my ignorance, but I'm a little confused.

 

Here's another one - without looking at you chart - do not cheat - without looking at your chart - where were your first long trades taken in relation to the prior day's low? Where was your NFP short entry in relation to the prior day's low? Where was price in relation to the most recent pivot high and pivot low? I don't mean little swing highs and lows, I mean where did the market last pivot from a sustained LH's and LL's to a sustained run of HL's and HH's? Where was price when you were trading in relation to the midpoint of that range? What was your plan for the day?

 

I don't know about "the prior day's low," but I could tell you that the trades were basically in the midpoint of the most recent large move...so my feeling was "it could go either way." With a short I was anticipating a retest of the lows, and with a long I was anticipating a retest and possible break of the high (due to the trade being a perceivably higher low, and due to the fact that price had broken resistance...the resistance being the pivot highs that were created during the multiple tests of that low level).

 

I honestly do make an attempt to get a grasp of "waves or swings, what others call market structure, what still others call context, etc."...perhaps I just do a poor job of it...my "view" at the time can be seen on this chart:

 

 

(I haven't posted charts like this because when I post "today's trades," it's only to show what trades I took...not to give an explanation/context for each one.)

 

With my NFP trade, I just basically bracketed the swing high and swing low that price was in the middle of leading up to the announcement, and price fell so the short filled...I am inexperienced trading news, but my logic was that the direction the price breaks will indicate a large move in that direction...but of course, I was proven wrong...this was not really a "typical" trade...

 

I had one trade on the 6E Friday, and it was a long, entered after NFP on a limit order placed before NFP. I closed 1/3 at 1.3590 and 2/3's at 1.3602.

 

I assume you must have bought around 1.3550ish? I believe that's more how you've been trading lately...buying support, selling resistance (as opposed to breakouts/123's).

 

What I just don't understand is why you were so long biased....being at a midpoint of a big move, I wasn't biased either way...if I had to pick, I'd probably be biased long just because of the new high that was made...but the prior low was still a test of the lows, so I wasn't necessarily convinced...was it because of a TTT level? (I just got the book in the mail today...haven't started reading it, yet).

 

I'm sorry if I'm just not getting it and if I'm missing something. I'm a bit frustrated with myself...

 

-Cory

Edited March 7, 2010 by Cory2679

[MidKnight 12]

Do not be frustrated, Cory. Learning to trade takes time. You'll end up seeing the context over time. I guess it depends what one calls the context, to me it is a marriage of short and longer timeframe general patterns. Just as an example on the Euro there, we are getting that wild volatility within a range after a large multi-month drop, which to me puts the long side quite heavily in favour and has done for at least the last week or two for me. That is just an example of what I mean when I say context. As you can see, it is based off the structure of many days of data. It takes several years of real-time analysis and observation to see these patterns on the bigger picture enough to develop the eye.

 

Believe me man, I know what it is like to be frustrated at ones trading development. You'll feel like you got it, then just like that somehow it all changes. This is natural and happens to everyone. You'd laugh and maybe even be a little bit scared if you knew my story how long it took me to become a BE trader, and how long it has taken me to be at this meager level of performance today. Everyone is different. Have faith that you are doing the best you can. Try not to beat yourself up too much. Focus on your trading as a process rather than a profit.

 

I also agree with sevensa that ane should try and keep things just a little more constant before making changes. All of the above that anyone has written you will figure out sooner or later. It just all takes time.....

 

Enjoy the week ahead,

MK

[Gabe2004 10]

You'd laugh and maybe even be a little bit scared if you knew my story how long it took me to become a BE trader, and how long it has taken me to be at this meager level of performance today.

 

Please do tell. How long?

I think reading about the time it took other people to get THERE will maybe, diminish some of the frustration about how long it takes.

Depends on how I look at the time I have spent on DELIBERATE learning and not thrill seeking (which I found was a big part of why I did not make progress for a long time) I would say that I am in my 2nd year. Overall it is more like 5 years.

Timewise probably less than 2000 hours of effective learning.

Since I have heard of OUTLIERS, I am not so disturbed by the above fact.

There were many times when I thought that I GOT IT only to be disappointed.

I believe that the FOG is clearing now. Time will tell.

I felt that I made a big step forward when I stopped reading this and other forums during the day, stopped checking my email in the middle of the trading day, stopped answering my phone, stopped listening to music and basically just focused on the charts.

Sometimes I cannot concentrate for too long and that is OK but the point is that when I am in learning mode or trading mode, there are not to be any other distractions.

A long time ago when I was collecting a regular paycheck, I am sure I would have been fired if I would have done all the above mentioned things which were not related to my job.

Just absorbing the movements of different instrumens throughout the day was of big help.

Somehow it seems that our brain is putting the puzzle together if we just let it do ITS THING.

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

I honestly do make an attempt to get a grasp of "waves or swings, what others call market structure, what still others call context, etc."...perhaps I just do a poor job of it...my "view" at the time can be seen on this chart ...

 

What I just don't understand is why you were so long biased....being at a midpoint of a big move, I wasn't biased either way...if I had to pick, I'd probably be biased long just because of the new high that was made...but the prior low was still a test of the lows, so I wasn't necessarily convinced...was it because of a TTT level? (I just got the book in the mail today...haven't started reading it, yet).

 

I'm sorry if I'm just not getting it and if I'm missing something. I'm a bit frustrated with myself...

 

-Cory

 

No need to be sorry, and I certainly understand your frustration. What I am trying to lead you to his this: You need to know where price is in the eys of the folks who have been trading the EURUSD since it was basically the Deutsche Mark.

 

The day runs 5PM-5PM. This is important, because it will let you know how to find prior daily highs and lows on your intraday charts. That is your next step. Go back and find the daily highs and lows and mark them on your chart (if you are using Ninja, there is an indicator that will let you do this. Make sure you set your chart properties to 5PM session start and 5PM session end.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[DugDug 10]

Cory - you have the amateur fly fishermans dilema.

Every now and again fly fisherman get a mayfly hatching (or some other insect) and the salmon go wild for them - they seemingly eat everything that is on the water. The water is alive with fish eating everything, including the other fishermen around you.....except your fly!!

 

The frustration is palpable - why the f...n hell cant I catch anything, whats wrong, maybe i'll try this, try that etc;

 

The key to most of the successful anglers are they will still only target one fish in the frenzy, they have learn their craft prior to the day and know how to cast quickly and accurately, and they do they dont keep chopping and changing flys or angles with out thought for why.

 

These things all take time, I have been trading for years, and swapping back to a more intensive short term intraday trading style for me is frustrating, ( also exciting), and sometimes I wonder why I am bothering - but I also know I would rather spend the time and effort to ensure I get it right for the long term.

I wish I had the resources of such a thing as traders laboratory when I first started, but I also think that such a resource is also like putting a kid in front of a candy store and saying - one of these days son - if you are lucky - when you have enough knowledge experience etc; you can enter the store with the others - until then you have to wait. Man o man - thats frustration. Yet if you get it and succeed - or even if you dont - you will have learnt a lot and thats never a bad thing.

[MCM 10]

Cory - you have the amateur fly fishermans dilema.

Every now and again fly fisherman get a mayfly hatching (or some other insect) and the salmon go wild for them - they seemingly eat everything that is on the water. The water is alive with fish eating everything, including the other fishermen around you.....except your fly!!

 

The frustration is palpable - why the f...n hell cant I catch anything, whats wrong, maybe i'll try this, try that etc;

 

The key to most of the successful anglers are they will still only target one fish in the frenzy, they have learn their craft prior to the day and know how to cast quickly and accurately, and they do they dont keep chopping and changing flys or angles with out thought for why.

 

These things all take time, I have been trading for years, and swapping back to a more intensive short term intraday trading style for me is frustrating, ( also exciting), and sometimes I wonder why I am bothering - but I also know I would rather spend the time and effort to ensure I get it right for the long term.

I wish I had the resources of such a thing as traders laboratory when I first started, but I also think that such a resource is also like putting a kid in front of a candy store and saying - one of these days son - if you are lucky - when you have enough knowledge experience etc; you can enter the store with the others - until then you have to wait. Man o man - thats frustration. Yet if you get it and succeed - or even if you dont - you will have learnt a lot and thats never a bad thing.

 

The analogy is sound. You can get so distracted by all of the other fish (other contracts, different time frames, different indicators) that you stop targeting your one goal. I battle myself daily on wanting to trade a different indicator, a different time frame, etc. When I look back weekly on my trades - the most successful are the ones taken that are IN MY TRADING PLAN!

 

I spent years learning to fly fish - and remember those days of pure frustration as my friends were hammering 18-22" trout while I flailed with wind knots & being hung up in the brush. Patience and time on the water is what ultimately produced the results. I have since repeated this process in seeking Tarpon and Permit on the fly. (rewarded with my first permit this past summer happily). Per the author Malcolm Gladwell - most crafts take 10,000 hours to master. I dont believe I am even up to 1000 hours yet (figure 10 hours of screen time/week X 1 1/4 years). Until I hit the 10K mark - my main goal is to NOT blow up one of my accounts. I am happy that my performance the past month has been + 400 dollars (including commission). Not exactly money to live on - hell - not even money to withdraw. But it is positive - and it has allowed me to learn by looking over the good trades (both winners and losers) as well as the bad trades (even if it was a winner - if it was out of my plan - its a bad trade).

 

Remember - the occasional stupid fish will hook itself and gode (?spelling) you into thinking you got it figured out. You will know you are ready to make a living if you can walk into the river (or saltwater flat) each day and pull out some fish - even if they werent in the mood to be generous. You dont need to change your fly every 3 casts - or switch to a new flat/section of the river. The fish are there. Be patient. Wait for your opportunity - and dont flail on the water beforehand - it will prevent you from being ready at the best moment.

 

Dug Dug - I have to say thanks - I have never realized the similarities between trading and flyfishing before - but they are quite striking! Will help me in my own trading to think about being patient/prepared/accepting of what the market will give.

 

As I read this blog - I sense an ongoing theme of the wise and battle-scarred traders offering the same advice: find your plan. trade it. trade it some more. dont change gears. after several months - do a serious review - does your system work - does it have a positive expectancy - etc etc. In the meantime - protect your capital. rinse & repeat. And expect it to take a few years - not months/weeks. And finally - the successful traders all seem to trade their own style (Thales, Brownsfan, Bathrobe, etc) and not worry about what method the trader on the other side of the river/flat is using to get their daily catch.

 

Keep up the blog - and be open to the advice. (present company excluded - I like you - am at the beginning of the journey)

 

P

[thalestrader 14]

Lets' continue with the fishing metaphor. Fishing is a wonderful metaphor for trading, whether fly fishing, bait casting, bow fishing. After all, trading forums are known for trolls (ugly creatures who hide beneath bridges), as well as those trolling for followers the forum's waters with a long line with hundreds of hooks and success scented bait (only the scent, not the real thing) hoping to hook hungry followers.

 

I think that Cory is having difficulty identifying which way the current is flowing and where the underwater hazards are likely located. Rather than study the waves and eddies, the shadows and reflections to discover these flows and these hazards, he is trying to substitute how he moves the fly once in the water for learning where to place it in the first place.

 

Translation: Cory needs to build an awareness of the underlying structure of price action. He needs to start recognizing the patterns that repeat over and over and over. An exercise not unlike what one ses in the "Trading in Foresight" thread would no doubt be helpful, i.e. before he even considers himself ready to begin the trading day, he should have a plan that identifies nearby S/R, and what he is looking for, and what he will do if he sees it.

 

Let me use an an example, his NFP short - if you are short, and price test, perhaps even digs into the prior day's low and bounces, that is a sign you might want to take profits. If you instead stick with the short, and price again probes the prior low, making a new low by even a tick, and price again reverses, that is not only a sign that you do not want to be short, but it is a sign that you want to be long! TTT or no TTT, Elliot wave or no elliot wave, fibs or no fibs, a lower low that is rejected by the market twice in quick succession is a sign that higher rather than lower prices is the most likely immediate outcome. All of which reminds me of a story.

 

One upon a time, back when I was a young and nearly newly minted commodities broker in Manhattan, my manager took me to the floor of what was then the old Coffee, Sugar, & Cocoa exchange to meet a buddy of his. I do not recall what his buddy was trading, but I think he was a coffee trader. At one point the pit became a wild mass of animated agitation, and the chatter grew into a roar, louder and louder until it seemed as though everyone was screaming at one one another. My manager leaned over and spoke loudly in my ear, "price is dropping like a rock!"

 

Everyone was in a frenzy. Everyone, that is, except my manager's friend. He stood there, holding his pad and pencil between laced fingers, his arms and hands otherwise relaxed and held at his belt buckle, a slight smile on his lips. I could not understand - these other folks were going nuts, and he looked almost amused. Then, out of nowhere, he came to life and charged into the crowd, screaming and scrawling and pointing and screaming some more. Then, less than a minute later, he calmly walked back to us, continued to jot down some notes. Occasionally looking up, raising a finger, nodding, and making a note in his pad.

 

After some time, we left for lunch. My manager's buddy was very happy, a laughing, back slapping giant. It was clear from their demeanor that a good many of his trading colleagues were not so happy. One, I thought, looked close to tears.

 

At lunch, I asked him about what I had seen. He told me that the pit had panicked on a crop report or weather report or some such thing the specifics of which I do not recall, and that the market sold off hard. I knew from how happy he was he must have made a killing, but why, I wondered, had he waited so long to get in on the action? Wanting to show off to him just how much I had learned from my Series 3 classes, I asked him why he waited so long to go short also. He laughed and said, "Son, I didn't short anything - I waited till the low was in and then I bought - I started buying four ticks from the bottom, I sold them on the way up, and here I am with you guys."

 

This was astonishing to me. How could he have bought just four ticks off of the bottom? How did he know? Wasn't he scared that price would just kep dropping?

 

Well, I asked him, and here is his answer, more or less: "When price can't hold a new low for even a minute or two, that new low is not bearish, and when price can't hold a new high for even a minute, that new high is not bullish."

 

"How did you know that would be the low? What if it had not rallied and instead dropped again?" I said, thinking myself very smart.

 

He looked me in the eye and said, "I would have sold them out and gone to lunch early."

 

I wish I could say that at that moment in 1996 or 97 that the gates of trading glory opened to me and I learned well the lesson taught to me that day and that its been nothing but profits and plums for me ever since. But, unfortunately it was a lesson taught but not learned, and it took years for me to put into practice the details from what had been a very vivid presentation of support and resistance and how to trade them. Vivid, that is, to all but the blind such as I was at that time. That trader knew what level to watch. He was not interested in doing anything until price got to that level. And even then, he waited until there was a sign that his level would hold. Even then, he knew that the bounce might not stick. But he also planned that if the bounce he bought didn't stick he could fold his hand and lose nothing more than his ante.

 

You can have the right tackle, your casting technique can be of the most exquisitely executed double haul, but if you insist on casting into the weeds and against the current, you'll be continually frustrated by the snags.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[DugDug 10]

great story Thales - I love those sorts of stories that stick in the mind - they gain a personal mythical status but they are fantastic. Unfortunately the pits are largely closed and they are rarer these days.

 

This actually relates very well to the notes I am making now regards trading patterns.

Rather than giving patterns fancy names, or talk about rally, fall, bullish, bearish etc;

 

I have tried to opt for the two names of retracement and continuation.

This is to help me clarify in my own mind, what the pattern should do and when to apply it what I wish to trade is those patterns that continue, both in the expression of the ideal direction of the trade and in the continuation of the major trend. However certain patterns also suit a retracement of the trend. However the key to pretty much all the patterns is if you get rejection (especially of the major trend which should be the area of least resistance) then there are great reasons that you will get a retracement.

I am still tossing up (but am 99% sure I will do so ) is implement the cut and reverse when this occurs. (I strongly suggest this is not done by you yet Cory as there is always the risk of getting really chopped)

However I hope this "simplification" might help you somewhat as it has helped me.

[Cory2679 11]

Hey guys,

 

I will be back full-time beginning this Monday!

 

Recently, I've been all over the place...I've been very discouraged, I've been mentally whining about my lack of success so far, I took a couple days to relax/refresh, I've been researching and trying to decide what to do about a broker*, I've had a eureka moment or two, and I've even gone on a couple tangents.

 

All that's behind me, and now my mind's focused like a laser beam.

 

Beginning Monday, I'm going to do my absolute best and just take one day at a time. I'm not going to pause to whine, get discouraged, make excuses, etc...it's not productive. I'm not going to post my results, either (no point)...I probably won't even be posting to this log very much. All I'm going to post is real-time charts/analysis/trades to the "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread.

 

I'm willing to do whatever it takes...I'll work 15 hours a day, sacrifice whatever I have to (friends, family, health, I don't care). I am absolutely 1,000% determined to succeed, no matter what.

 

Cheers,

 

Cory

 

*I decided on Oanda...a plain old traditional forex bucket shop...if I can make it with them, I can make it with anyone...I'll be trading a $1,000 demo account.

Edited March 13, 2010 by Cory2679
typos

[MCM 10]

Good to see you back Cory.

 

Dont sacrifice health, happiness, family. In the end - even if your successful at trading - you will be unsuccessful at life (I realize you may have been joking a bit - but a profession/pursuit that you can literally spend 24X5.5 days in front of a screen has the slippery-slope ability of sucking you away from true purpose. Trading is a vehicle to provide funds for that purpose - make sure you are trading with THAT purpose in mind.)

 

Enough metaphysical clap-trap for the morning.

 

I have re-read this thread a few times in order to gleam a little bit more of the advice some of the veterans gave you. Print those out - or make a word document with the highlights - and post em up. Even if you stop posting to this thread - I think it has been one of the more useful threads I have read on this fantastic website.

 

P

[Cory2679 11]

...you can literally spend 24X5.5 days in front of a screen...

 

If that's what it takes, that's fine. I wasn't joking.

 

I met a guy a little while back...a trader and CTA who's firm now manages $5+ billion. Here's an excerpt from an article about him...his dedication is an inspiration...

 

(I didn't feel like subcribing to this news publication to view the entire article, but here's what's free...)

 

[Cory2679 11]

I've decided, beginning with this week, that if I have four unprofitable weeks in a row, I will look for a full-time job....still trading full-time, but also working full-time.

 

I graduated college in May '09 and have been working on trading full-time ever since, but it's getting to the point that continuing to only trade full-time unprofitably is unreasonable, so that's my plan.

 

Of course, I hope with everything in me that I have a profitable week soon (this week, ideally!), but we'll see...

 

I was down a hair under 1R today.

 

-Cory

[MidKnight 12]

Howdee do Cory,

 

Skip to the last line if you want the short version

 

At the risk of exposing myself, maybe this will give you inspiration. I'm currently in my 6th year of full-time trading. The first year was the ultimate frustration and at the same time maybe the best thing that ever happened to me because it humbled me in a HUGE way. I was trying to scalp using price action on very small tick charts and trading with the price action trends. I don't think I ever had a single winning day and I estimate I was losing on at least 90% of my trades (I didn't keep records back then). I was definitely over trading and taking the mantras of price action too literal as there was no context wrapped around my trades. I was doing this on many products ranging from the bund, to the ER2, to the euro futures. I can vividly recall having little breakdowns where I would literally collapse in the hallway depleted from energy and just sob. It was a terrible terrible time, but I needed it. Most of this year was spent in simulator with only a handful of real trades. The real trades had my account up just a tad, but I felt that I really did not know what I was doing so mostly stayed in the sim.

 

The next year got a little better, with focusing more on contextual factors. Due to my timezone, trading Europe and USA hours was hurting me in the prior year as I was massively sleep deprived. I think that accentuated my mood swings and the volatility in my mini breakdowns. So I started to explore futures in my timezone. Most of the year was on the Nikkei 225 futures trading out of Singapore with a little bit of ES in the winter. Things were getting better in my second year, I was starting to get winning days but still losing overall, my trade freq was lower and I was off those small tick charts trying to trade pullbacks. I was still in the simulator virtually all year and by the end of it I was glad I did this because it was another down year on my simulated account.

 

Now we get to my third year, 2007. More of the same as year 2. For the most part I focused on contextual things. Explored much larger time frames and notice that I'm doing better but overall another year of poor results below my simulated balance.

 

Year 4, we are now in 2008. This year tends to focus heavily on market breadths and just trading the Osaka Nikkei 225 futures. Heightened volatility make this year feel easy as I am starting to feel the market. Is it the new tools? Is it the heightened volatility? Is it just my experience? No idea. But this turns out to be my first profitable year and I can remember the massive relief felt as I feel that maybe I'm finally over the hump. Most of the year was in sim, but late in SEP I go live and make some decent gains only to start giving them back in late NOV. Late in the year volatility starts to decline and so does my performance. Hmmmmm, maybe it was the volatility. I feel a little bit panicked and frustrated.

 

Year 5 here we come, keen to build on last years profitability, I move to the Hang Seng futures because it is well known for its high volatility. Things are good for the most part. I'm using the same tools I was in 2008 and basically fading high emotion for scalps. Good things don't last forever and volatility gets erratic in the last 1/2 of the year and I finally see that I can't keep trading like this if the volatility is not consistently high. Next thing you know, I'm over in the real-time thread - LOL. Some frustration there (as is logged in the thread) but overall a good result. I knuckle down with study over the Xmas holidays and find what seems to be a reliable way to marry my contextual views with very small JR 123s to give a low risk, high reward entry. That research takes me to where I am today.

 

It's worth noting the following as it applies to each of the years:

• I should mention that without exception, I have worked very hard every day of my trading life. 8-14 hour days are the norm and there is always another 8-10 hours during the weekend for review.
  
• I have had forays into auto trading and research and so far to date have not found anything that has been consistently profitable. I'm not saying it can't be done (I know several people that do trade profitably like this), but I'm just saying that I have tried very hard a few times and so far have come up empty. I'm sure to try again at some point in my trading career.
  
• I stayed in sim very solidly for nearly 4 years because I knew that my trading was not ready for a live account. I didn't have back up funds to re-fund another account so I had to make sure my real account did not get blown.
  
• My friends and family all were encouraging me to get a job and stop struggling and living in such poverty. Needless to say my list of friends has declined....
  
• I sacrificed 4-5 years of comfortable living (I was a professional programmer earning a decent whack) for 4-5 years of working harder than ever in my life for no immediate and measurable reward. The whole journey is entirely built on faith in myself.
  
• There were several times when my belief in myself wavered. I am quite a stubborn but highly motivated person so these moments where I was feeling like a failure and the end of the world had just happened only lasted a day or two at most.
  

 

Bottom line. It takes time, it takes patience, it takes faith, it takes absolute dedication and commitment.

 

Good luck Cory, but luck really has very little to do with it if you are committed but also patient to your own development curve.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[Cory2679 11]

Howdee do Cory...

 

Thanks for sharing, Midk...I really appreciate the time you put into that post...I'm sure others that view this thread do, too...

 

-Cory