Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Tams

Beginning of the 2nd Wave? -- Dubai Shock

Recommended Posts

Dubai shock after debt standstill call

 

FT.com / Companies / Financial Services - Dubai shock after debt standstill call

 

 

this can be worse than the subprime bust.

 

This is the beginning of the next phase of the bust, and I agree, it will be worse than Sept 08 to March 09 for stocks, Gold, Oil.

What will go up ? The dollar !

Why ? Because people can't get credit and they need cash to survive, so they will sell assets to get dollars. Assets will fall in price (more deflation).

Watch the short covering on the dollar kick in when it gets past 76. This will accelerate equity/gold/oil falls.

Buckle up guys, things are gonna get real nasty. :fight:

Forget the Christmas rally. The rally from March to last Monday (11/23) was a bear market rally.

One day you'll be able to buy stuff for 10c on the dollar - hang in there.

 

P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Dubai shock after debt standstill call

 

FT.com / Companies / Financial Services - Dubai shock after debt standstill call

 

 

this can be worse than the subprime bust.

 

I have now read many of the internal over night reports from ( JPM .Goldman .MLynch ) and the problem is not as big as an average trader thinks , of course the spill over effect within UAE is not some thing one could over look but I doubt if this is going to be a next leg down ,, I feel fear element is un warranted and the market should soon continue the move to upside, ( as early as mid next week ) ...I am thinking of going LONG few top quality stocks such as AAPL ,AMZN ,BUCY mid week and hold them till End of DEC..

 

Program Trading :--

 

Most program trading use neural net ( dynamic pattern recognition ) and they are dumb in a way, they don't understand the reason for the move but still the move is seen as a down ward sell off and a sell off from highs, is very bearish ( even if we assume the sell off from high is bearish the market has to come back to near the previous high for Double top formation before major correction ) , As a result most intra day activity for the next few days will be on the short side but the fundamental reason for continuation of the previous trend should prevail and we should be above 10500 by xmas,, ( all in my opinion ) ,.

 

FA explains the reason behind a move TA is blind to the reason and only sees the move,,, don't bet your farm on TA only because if you do then you are setting your farm on fire ,, ( IMHO ) of course

 

Grey1

 

IMHO this will not be any where near the subprime bust

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

agree with you Grey in terms of it will most likely not be as big or serious.

BUT it definitely shows things are not over.

is it a lobster pot? (a great expression meaning if you throw out a lobster pot and you catch one lobster chances are there are other also there - its just that you cant see them)

 

I think Dubai was always a bubble and hence its problems will be particularly bad anyway.

For my 2 cents on the market I follow the technicals - and this just makes me skew every thing to the short side. thats all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, Dubai was always a bubble.

They have little oil, little of anything...

yet they made it big and opulent.

It will be interesting to see how things unfold...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could of equally have posted this in the VSA section (though having been the most active part of the forum it now seems the most dormant).

 

I was at breakfirst this morning and over heard a couple on the next table flicking through the papers and discussing this. It got me thinking about one of the key tenets of VSA and other conspiracy theorists (only joking VSA guys). The idea goes along the lines that bad news gives an opportunity for accumulation at knock down prices. Seems to me that it was pretty common knowledge that Dubai inc. was in trouble some while ago. Anyway to get to my point I wonder if this is a case of sell the rumour and buy the news? Guess I should have a look on youtube and see whether master trader and god emperor GH has to say on the subject. :D

 

I was sceptical of a resort in the desert in the first place though Las Vegas seems to do OK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let the chips fall.

 

This is not a Dubai thing. This is a global thing.

Greed in everything left completely unchecked for decades.

Short term [re election] focused Gov't policies.

Gov'ts around the globe have been printing money like its going out of fashion.

"Quantitive Easing" ...what a joke.

Bailing out Banks and large businesses....gee what happened to Capitalism.

The banks have stopped lending money and have, instead invested in the stock market.

Unemployment at record highs in most countries.

Lying cheating, vertically integrating, dominating greedy Public Companies too numerous to name.

One bad fundamental number after another.

 

And now we have Dubai.

Its just another detonator.

 

Things need to get worse before any of us can hope that they will get any better. Capitalism has a self cleaning mechanism. Do not consider that the feeble attempts to restrict it will be of any benefit to us.

 

But maybe its different this time.

These comments from a cynical old man.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Let the chips fall.

 

This is not a Dubai thing. This is a global thing.

Greed in everything left completely unchecked for decades.

Short term [re election] focused Gov't policies.

Gov'ts around the globe have been printing money like its going out of fashion.

"Quantitive Easing" ...what a joke.

Bailing out Banks and large businesses....gee what happened to Capitalism.

The banks have stopped lending money and have, instead invested in the stock market.

Unemployment at record highs in most countries.

Lying cheating, vertically integrating, dominating greedy Public Companies too numerous to name.

One bad fundamental number after another.

 

And now we have Dubai.

Its just another detonator.

 

Things need to get worse before any of us can hope that they will get any better. Capitalism has a self cleaning mechanism. Do not consider that the feeble attempts to restrict it will be of any benefit to us.

 

But maybe its different this time.

These comments from a cynical old man.

 

I agree for the most part. Dubai is not a cause, but a symptom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems that every time the Fed sells sells a boat load of bonds the market drops on bad news and then bounces back up. Just another way to create money.

Run market up. Sell. Buy bonds. Repeat till system fails.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Let the chips fall.

 

This is not a Dubai thing. This is a global thing.

Greed in everything left completely unchecked for decades.

Short term [re election] focused Gov't policies.

Gov'ts around the globe have been printing money like its going out of fashion.

"Quantitive Easing" ...what a joke.

Bailing out Banks and large businesses....gee what happened to Capitalism.

The banks have stopped lending money and have, instead invested in the stock market.

Unemployment at record highs in most countries.

Lying cheating, vertically integrating, dominating greedy Public Companies too numerous to name.

One bad fundamental number after another.

 

And now we have Dubai.

Its just another detonator.

 

Things need to get worse before any of us can hope that they will get any better. Capitalism has a self cleaning mechanism. Do not consider that the feeble attempts to restrict it will be of any benefit to us.

 

But maybe its different this time.

These comments from a cynical old man.

 

Better read "The Shadows of Power" by James Perloff and study the Council on Foreign Relations. Because they would really like to end true Capitalism as shown by their actions. not by my opinions.

 

We are going to see much much worse things to come. I am not a perma bear but

 

 

$ straight down + Market straight up. doesn't = New bull market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have now read many of the internal over night reports from ( JPM .Goldman .MLynch ) and the problem is not as big as an average trader thinks , of course the spill over effect within UAE is not some thing one could over look but I doubt if this is going to be a next leg down ,, I feel fear element is un warranted and the market should soon continue the move to upside, ( as early as mid next week ) ...I am thinking of going LONG few top quality stocks such as AAPL ,AMZN ,BUCY mid week and hold them till End of DEC..

 

Program Trading :--

 

Most program trading use neural net ( dynamic pattern recognition ) and they are dumb in a way, they don't understand the reason for the move but still the move is seen as a down ward sell off and a sell off from highs, is very bearish ( even if we assume the sell off from high is bearish the market has to come back to near the previous high for Double top formation before major correction ) , As a result most intra day activity for the next few days will be on the short side but the fundamental reason for continuation of the previous trend should prevail and we should be above 10500 by xmas,, ( all in my opinion ) ,.

 

FA explains the reason behind a move TA is blind to the reason and only sees the move,,, don't bet your farm on TA only because if you do then you are setting your farm on fire ,, ( IMHO ) of course

 

Grey1

 

IMHO this will not be any where near the subprime bust

 

The market seems to have now discounted the DUBAI's problem and getting ready to continue its previous up trend ,, I feel the up trend move should exhaust in around 4 weeks time with a spike in DOW to above and a sell off from high . The market will then look for a catalyst to retrace to below 10000...( IMHO ) ..

 

The equity market is trading well above its VWAP and most institutional traders know this ,, as a result they will be selling / reducing their long position by selling into the spike...

 

Grey1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Debt disaster fears rumble from Athens to London

Game of chicken for bond spreads: Will E.U. honor 'no bailout' clause?

 

 

Debt disaster fears rumble from Athens to London - MarketWatch

 

 

Investors have rushed to sell Greek bonds since the newly elected government of George Papandreou made a startling revelation: the deficit will soar to over 12% of gross domestic product this year, well above previous official projections.

 

Greece's predicament has escalated concerns about contagion in other European countries whose finances are in poor shape. Just this month, the ratings of Greece have been cut both by Fitch Ratings, and, late Wednesday, by Standard & Poor's, and major agencies have warned Spain and Portugal of possible cuts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.