This Morning's Trade

[UrmaBlume 10]

Because we feel that an indication of the direction of the next 20 - 50 points in ES is forming now we posted a report on this mornings activity. Here is an excerpt from that report:

 

Today's number of filings for state jobless benefits was 570,000 - bigger than the expected 550k

A measure of the services industry, ISM Services, will be released at 1000 EST

The Institute for Supply Management reported at 1000 a greater than expected

improvement in the US services sector

 

*****

 

The Nite Session found support at 993.00 and selling slightly above 1003.00

 

This screen capture of our HUD was taken 30 minutes before today's Open

 

 

 

This chart shows Trade in ES 45 minutes after the open.

Prices are down from the open but still between Nite Suppor and Nite Resistance

The ISM announcement enhances downward bias

 

 

[davewolfs 10]

I've read in your previous posts that you commitment can sometimes can be defined as ticks that happen on the upside vs ticks that happen on the downside. How are you defining whether or not a trader is considered long term? Are these traders who are involved in the initial movement that occurs around an intensity spike?

[UrmaBlume 10]

I've read in your previous posts that you commitment can sometimes can be defined as ticks that happen on the upside vs ticks that happen on the downside. How are you defining whether or not a trader is considered long term? Are these traders who are involved in the initial movement that occurs around an intensity spike?

 

Dave,

 

Thanks for the query.

 

We pay no attention to ticks. We pay attention to buy and sell volumes and classify them in several different ways. All of the trade in an intensity spike does not necessarily get added into what we call "longer term commitments by commercials."

 

cheers

[davewolfs 10]

Perhaps I might have misread some of your previous posts then.

 

So is trader commitment usually discovered during these intensity spikes and if it is, are you looking for orders or groups of orders that appear to be of a large size?

 

What would help constitute that a trade is considered long term vs non long term? Based on what you have said your roots started with MP, so does some of this tie into initiative and responsive traders who are making their movies inside our outside specific value areas?

 

I would have to assume, that the portion of the right of the HUD would represent some sort of buying/selling pressure for a given time period (i.e. overnight) based on the cumulative pressure that occurred during these different time frames.

[UrmaBlume 10]

"Perhaps I might have misread some of your previous posts then.

 

So is trader commitment usually discovered during these intensity spikes and if it is, are you looking for orders or groups of orders that appear to be of a large size? intensity and commitment are not registered the same and for us, transaction size is not a consideration

 

What would help constitute that a trade is considered long term vs non long term? Based on what you have said your roots started with MP, so does some of this tie into initiative and responsive traders who are making their movies inside our outside specific value areas? whether it is intensity or balance of trade one of the issues with the profile graphic has always been that it can not be seen when it is inside the value area - no so with our gear"

 

I would have to assume, that the portion of the right of the HUD would represent some sort of buying/selling pressure for a given time period (i.e. overnight) based on the cumulative pressure that occurred during these different time frames. it is a bit more than that - it is the percentage of normal commitment for the period noted above and normalized for both bias and time of day

[Kiwi 16]

I'd like to congratulate UrmaBlume for providing useful information and discussion with other traders and thus withdraw my suspicions and comments about his motivations in posting on the board. For the record - I guess I apologize

[davewolfs 10]

"Perhaps I might have misread some of your previous posts then.

 

So is trader commitment usually discovered during these intensity spikes and if it is, are you looking for orders or groups of orders that appear to be of a large size? intensity and commitment are not registered the same and for us, transaction size is not a consideration

 

What would help constitute that a trade is considered long term vs non long term? Based on what you have said your roots started with MP, so does some of this tie into initiative and responsive traders who are making their movies inside our outside specific value areas? whether it is intensity or balance of trade one of the issues with the profile graphic has always been that it can not be seen when it is inside the value area - no so with our gear"

 

I would have to assume, that the portion of the right of the HUD would represent some sort of buying/selling pressure for a given time period (i.e. overnight) based on the cumulative pressure that occurred during these different time frames. it is a bit more than that - it is the percentage of normal commitment for the period noted above and normalized for both bias and time of day

 

Although subtle, your last point explains a lot and I appreciate your "commitment"

[davewolfs 10]

"Perhaps I might have misread some of your previous posts then.

 

So is trader commitment usually discovered during these intensity spikes and if it is, are you looking for orders or groups of orders that appear to be of a large size? intensity and commitment are not registered the same and for us, transaction size is not a consideration

 

What would help constitute that a trade is considered long term vs non long term? Based on what you have said your roots started with MP, so does some of this tie into initiative and responsive traders who are making their movies inside our outside specific value areas? whether it is intensity or balance of trade one of the issues with the profile graphic has always been that it can not be seen when it is inside the value area - no so with our gear"

 

I would have to assume, that the portion of the right of the HUD would represent some sort of buying/selling pressure for a given time period (i.e. overnight) based on the cumulative pressure that occurred during these different time frames. it is a bit more than that - it is the percentage of normal commitment for the period noted above and normalized for both bias and time of day

 

Just some other thoughts, you have mentioned that volume and size don't help in classifying the type of trader - how do you determine if a trader is long term or not? Are LDB reports part of the decision process?

[davewolfs 10]

What does the average time of day volume represent?