Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen

HELLO Market Scientists, I'm Tired Too About "get Rich Quick" Magic Indicators

Recommended Posts

Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen

By now I know a little bit about technical analysis and I'm working towards having my own 100% automated trading system using Tradestation. I asume that most of us have arrived here after spending time reading about some "magical" indicators that are proven ways to make you rich fast.

 

You know, those indicators that can accurately predict the future and won't let you lose a penny... yeah, right.

 

I have a scientific background and so this appears to be the right forum for me. I will read a little here and there and I hope I can ask some good questions to the experts in the forum.

 

See you around!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ALL the "indicators" analyze ONE tiny aspect of the market...

 

it is ONLY a tool...

 

you still have to know what you are doing.

 

 

Welcome, and enjoy the journey

 

;-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen

Tams, thanks, yes, I agree, an indicator is a tool, but there are countless of tools. I'm taking TA as a first approach to get some entry and exit points, but knowing also that you have to have good money management techniques, do extensive backtesting and other kind of analysis (like Montecarlo Simulations).

 

I'm still developing my own methodologies and hope to get some nice info and interesting discussions in the forum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

there are countless tools...

 

there are also countless situations... (i.e. CONTEXT)

 

 

If you understand the context, then you will know which "category" of tools are applicable in what situations...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen

agreed, but first you need to define "context" and this requires more than just assuming that there are "trendy markets" and "shoppy markets" (to name two that come to my mind). this because it is easy to see that something is "trending" when you see the historical chart, this is called "confirmation bias" in which you believe you can recognize something as clearly evident and forget that the problem is to identify the trend fast enough in order to profit from it.

 

or.. what do you have in mind?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Identifying trend or chop (as broad categories) might not be a bad place to start. Many automated systems either trade one or the other though some 'flip a switch' and essentially use a different approach for those different market conditions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen
Identifying trend or chop (as broad categories) might not be a bad place to start. Many automated systems either trade one or the other though some 'flip a switch' and essentially use a different approach for those different market conditions.

 

yes, agreed, you would need two different approaches.. still, the question remains, (at least for me) how to properly (and timely) identify a trend or a chop market???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi there,

 

I have been trading Forex for a while, but i was looking at trading Stocks, Options and Futures. Can anyone help me as i'm not sure how to get started trading these on a day trade basis. Is it the same as trading Forex and can anyone suggest a platform I can use to trade Stocks, Options and Futures. i'm in Australia.

 

Thanks in advance...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen
There are several ideas here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f229/how-do-i-avoid-chop-chop-6104.html

 

You might find Ehlers books interesting, he comes from an engineering background and is looking to isolate the cyclical component using signal processing techniques.

 

Sorry for the late answer. Thanks for the link, I read it all. I'm still with mixed feelings about all this stuff about what is a trendy and what is a shoppy market. I mean, it is obvious to spot them on an historical graph, but that doesn't help at all with the current price of some stock.. will it continue to behave as it has been behaving?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen
May I just ask two questions (if it is ok to be curious):

 

- Which is the science you are familiar with?

- What's the reason for heading towards 100% automation?

 

Yes of course.

 

1) I have worked with in the field of neural correlates of consciousness, performing EEG analysis, some statistics, fourier, and research methodologies.

 

2) In order to get about 30 stocks trading continuously, which would be impossible if you are trying to follow them all.

 

Why so many stocks? because I like to diversify (if a particular stock falls, say, 90% it won't hurt the portfolio).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes of course.

 

1) I have worked with in the field of neural correlates of consciousness, performing EEG analysis, some statistics, fourier, and research methodologies.

 

2) In order to get about 30 stocks trading continuously, which would be impossible if you are trying to follow them all.

 

Why so many stocks? because I like to diversify (if a particular stock falls, say, 90% it won't hurt the portfolio).

For diversify, you can trade ETF instead of single stock.

 

But another reason for automation I think is that it can avoid the effect caused by emotion (fear & greed), i.e. it can work in a purely logical way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen
For diversify, you can trade ETF instead of single stock.

 

But another reason for automation I think is that it can avoid the effect caused by emotion (fear & greed), i.e. it can work in a purely logical way.

 

Exchange traded funds? how do they work? and regarding automatization, my portfolios is already fully automated, a robot does the transactions for me (TradeStation), but my methodology only works in a trendy environment, so now I'm thinking in a second approach that would allow me to stop trading when there is no trend.

 

Now, as attractive as this sounds, I believe it is impossible, because trends appear to come from nowhere and you can only spot them when they have been running for a time. IOW, it is easy to spot a trend in historical data, but my guess is that it is impossible to spot it when it is just starting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its not impossible to identify when a trend starts. there are a couple cycles one should familiarize themselves with that is the balance imbalance cycle. balance is the range market like the last four days, imbalance will be the vertical move out of balance. which direction nobody knows (probably up just to piss all the tech guys off who are calling a top here), but either way I will trade in the direction of the move away from balance. It is usually a substancial move after balancing for a long time. That is the simplistic nature of the market and all one needs to be sucsessful to trade the markets. HA HA it takes a litttle more than that but thats the nuts and bolts of it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

See this morning is a perfect example. normaly you wouldnt buy a market that is gaped up 10 points but leaving the balance area I was confident in the longside and bought . Good times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen
Its not impossible to identify when a trend starts. there are a couple cycles one should familiarize themselves with that is the balance imbalance cycle. balance is the range market like the last four days, imbalance will be the vertical move out of balance. which direction nobody knows (probably up just to piss all the tech guys off who are calling a top here), but either way I will trade in the direction of the move away from balance. It is usually a substancial move after balancing for a long time. That is the simplistic nature of the market and all one needs to be sucsessful to trade the markets. HA HA it takes a litttle more than that but thats the nuts and bolts of it.

 

This sounds interesting, take a number of days and then see if something breaks their balance.. still.. statistically it doesn't mean anything, so I'm guessing that there is more than the numbers going on, maybe you have intuitively grasping something else, or maybe you are merely experimenting a confirmation bias.

 

Do you actively trade using this principle?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yes I absolutley trade this method i got the morning trade than called it quits. today i shorted the balance area at 88.5 because it was the first test of the balance from the day before. i the morning it gave a nice reaction and i aws done by 7:00 pst today as well. These are MP principles I work off and jus follow along with the auction. dont try to fight it. And i had orders in to buy the 76's in the am but it didnt get that far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Trend" is an artificial concept.

That is the reason why it cannot be quantified.

 

With a pretty simple experiment this can be proven:

Enter e.g. EUR/USD with 1,000,000 EUR or USD. You will get immediately the feeling that there is a "trend" because the account goes up or down numbers that will probably seem significant.

 

With other words: Trend is a function of account size, profit expectancy and risk tolerance.

 

If huge leverage is used there is no trend-less phase, "chop" or whatever people call it.

 

 

When strategies seem not to work in "choppy" times this is due to some other problem - probably bad entry point.

 

If the entry point is chosen correctly it's always possible to choose one of:

- increase leverage

- increase time frame = wait until the symbol moves far enough

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"Trend" is an artificial concept.

That is the reason why it cannot be quantified.

 

With a pretty simple experiment this can be proven:

Enter e.g. EUR/USD with 1,000,000 EUR or USD. You will get immediately the feeling that there is a "trend" because the account goes up or down numbers that will probably seem significant.

 

With other words: Trend is a function of account size, profit expectancy and risk tolerance.

 

If huge leverage is used there is no trend-less phase, "chop" or whatever people call it.

 

 

When strategies seem not to work in "choppy" times this is due to some other problem - probably bad entry point.

 

If the entry point is chosen correctly it's always possible to choose one of:

- increase leverage

- increase time frame = wait until the symbol moves far enough

 

I don't see how the market can be a fuction of account size, profit expectancy and risk tolerance as the market has no "knowledge" about any of those. An indivudual leverage has zero impact about the trendiness of the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This sounds interesting, take a number of days and then see if something breaks their balance.. still.. statistically it doesn't mean anything, so I'm guessing that there is more than the numbers going on, maybe you have intuitively grasping something else, or maybe you are merely experimenting a confirmation bias.

 

Do you actively trade using this principle?

 

How do you know that statistically it doesn't mean anything? I would be interested to know what kind of testing you did to reach your conclusion?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The definition of trend is making higher highs and higher lows. The problem most people have is they dont understand what time frame they are trading. And it varys from time frame to time frame. A 1 min trend may only last 5 minutes or it could last 20. has nothing to do with account values.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen
yes I absolutley trade this method i got the morning trade than called it quits. today i shorted the balance area at 88.5 because it was the first test of the balance from the day before. i the morning it gave a nice reaction and i aws done by 7:00 pst today as well. These are MP principles I work off and jus follow along with the auction. dont try to fight it. And i had orders in to buy the 76's in the am but it didnt get that far.

 

Understood. Interesting. Let me get this better. You are talking about 5 periods and the trigger is that the fifth is significantly different from the previous four? And is there a specific window to apply it? You can use such a system for minute, hourly, daily or weekly charts (to put an example) and my guess is that everyone will report different results.

 

Furthermore, I believe that you should be following just one or two things which you have learned that respond to this pattern.

 

I'm not saying that it doesn't work, just that I believe that, statistically, you won't find that following such a system will work a significant number of times, as markets tend to behave erratically.

 

Of course, I can be misunderstanding you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Bodhi Dharma Zen
"Trend" is an artificial concept.

That is the reason why it cannot be quantified.

 

I believe that trends are real, just impossible to spot BEFORE they happen. I mean, in an historical chart it is obvious when some instrument goes up or down in a mostly regular fashion. But spotting it before it happens is the tricky part.

 

My stance? You can't. No one can.

 

If I happen to believe that some price will go up and then it goes up I call my belief a prediction, and thus I confirm that "I know". But with the same eagerness that we remember the times we score we forget the times our "predictions" didn't work.

 

With a pretty simple experiment this can be proven:

Enter e.g. EUR/USD with 1,000,000 EUR or USD. You will get immediately the feeling that there is a "trend" because the account goes up or down numbers that will probably seem significant.

 

With other words: Trend is a function of account size, profit expectancy and risk tolerance.

 

If huge leverage is used there is no trend-less phase, "chop" or whatever people call it.

 

Ok, I do not understand where are you coming from in here. Care to explain it a bit more?

 

 

When strategies seem not to work in "choppy" times this is due to some other problem - probably bad entry point.

 

If the entry point is chosen correctly it's always possible to choose one of:

- increase leverage

- increase time frame = wait until the symbol moves far enough

 

But can we correctly "chose" it? Or is it more a matter of "luck"?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.