Reading Charts in Real Time

[Marko23 10]

...

Again, I am not a EW ideologue

...

 

Never had that impression. You give me something to think about, that's great!

[thalestrader 14]

Perhaps it is the word "theory" which spuriously leads me to expect a forecast with 100% certainty.

 

I have often thought the name did more harm than good to the body of work. After all, we are really just talking about chart patterns that occur in a series as opposed to in isolation from everything else, are we not? Everyone accepts that occasionally a recognizable pattern know as a "Head and Shoulders top," occurs, so why should we dismiss out of hand accepting that the H&S top is part of a larger, yet easily recognizable pattern?

 

All EW is is a comprehensive framework of chart patterns, nothing more. If channels and trend lines work, then so does EW. But just a broken trend line sometimes means a reversal, so too sometimes it just means a change of pace, i.e. the trend is still intact, but it is trending at a lesser rate of change. But those who use trend lines would not throw them away simply because they did not always correctly "forecast" a reversal.

 

How does one measure the expectancy of a flat or double zigzag? Everyone is different from its cousins.

 

I have no idea, which is why I describe my approach to trading as waiting for the end of a possible wave 2 correction by playing the breakout of the wave 1 extreme, using the extremes of wave 3C and 5 as my profit targets. In other words, use the theory for where it offers tradable information. When nothing tradable appears, forget about it.

 

I will have to think more about it (and post a little less).

 

It's up to you whether or not you rethink your opinion of EW, but I would encourage you to continue posting. I think you have put some very valuable efforts into this thread. So thank you. Keep sharing your experience with us.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

ES Redux ...

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Explain yourself!!!!

 

I have been a bit laxed in reading a lot of stuff lately even while posting some of my own trades REAL-TIME still. But am today reading the last 2 dozen or so pages, catching up.

 

Can you explain the rationale behind behind this second short, i.e. the short taken at the lowest price from the pictures I am quoting?

 

It seems as though on various time frames there is always a HL or LH occuring. And that one needs to get this right. But in this trade, where you just trading anticipating a breakdown, or is this a 1-2-3 based off of a larger tf that is not so readily obvious based on the amount of data captured in your picture?

 

Does my question make sense?

[thalestrader 14]

even while posting some of my own trades REAL-TIME still

 

The es trade was posted in Real Time, Forrest. Do you think we've been posting after the fact?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

The es trade was posted in Real Time, Forrest. Do you think we've been posting after the fact?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

No, I am not asking as to WHEN you posted this trade. I saw this post when you posted it PRIOR to the entry being triggered.

 

My confusion was the WHY you saw this as an opportunity for you?

[thalestrader 14]

My confusion was the WHY you saw this as an opportunity for you?

 

You don't see it?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

You don't see it?

 

I thought maybe you'd take a stab at it. Anyhow, take a look at this 30 minute chart and see if you see what I saw.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

I thought maybe you'd take a stab at it. Anyhow, take a look at this 30 minute chart and see if you see what I saw.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Sorry, I was away for a bit.

 

Thales, I can see a few things about price on your bigger bar interval chart, and the fact that a larger tf is now exposed. But I'm not sure?

 

I can rationalize a few scenarios, all of which more or less say the same thing but different.

 

On the Macro Level, there is clearly a distinct trading range. Also you could see the midpoint, or S/R level right there in the middle. So I can see how you'd expect that point to be an area where price might move if broken.

 

I suppose my question may be based on what you were seeing on the micro level? Maybe aniticipation of a bounce at that midpoint looking for a HL to form, but never did and just shorted the breakdown when it never materialized?

[thalestrader 14]

On the Macro Level, there is clearly a distinct trading range. Also you could see the midpoint, or S/R level right there in the middle. So I can see how you'd expect that point to be an area where price might move if broken.

 

I suppose my question may be based on what you were seeing on the micro level? Maybe aniticipation of a bounce at that midpoint looking for a HL to form, but never did and just shorted the breakdown when it never materialized?

 

That was a beautiful range, and when price falls from resistance back to the midpoint, it is either going up or down. It will not crawl sideways along the midpoint, right? Well, price tried up. That didn't work. So, let's try down. After all, noone makes money sideways. You can't trade sideways.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

That was a beautiful range, and when price falls from resistance back to the midpoint, it is either going up or down. It will not crawl sideways along the midpoint, right? Well, price tried up. That didn't work. So, let's try down. After all, noone makes money sideways. You can't trade sideways.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks!!

 

So if price would have reached the midpoint and made a HL, this would have initiated a trade to the long side?

 

Seeing a trading range like this, is this how you decide to take continuation type trades as opposed to reversals on a similiar swing scale?

[thalestrader 14]

So if price would have reached the midpoint and made a HL, this would have initiated a trade to the long side?

 

Seeing a trading range like this, is this how you decide to take continuation type trades as opposed to reversals on a similiar swing scale?

 

Yes, after the first bounce from the midpoint (and let's not forget that the midpoint is selected merely because it is the midpoint, but because price has acknowledged that level several times while in that range).

 

I usually start each day with two "if ... then" type scenarios, one for long, one for short. Sometimes one is a break out scenario while the other is a reversal. Sometimes, as in the case of a chop zone, both are what I consider break outs (I know some would not agree). Somedays, price behaves in a manner that fails to provide an opportunity in either scenario. Many days it plays out as though it were scripted. I try always to have levels in mind at which I will be looking for a reversal or a break. By "levels", I mean zone or concentrated range of S/R. Also, remember that when I trade the ES I usually require price to have tested a break point twice before I am willing to believe in the break out.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Looking at some longer term charts this morning. Here is the weekly USDCHF, which like the USDJPY, tades inversely to its corresponding futures contract.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Yes, after the first bounce from the midpoint (and let's not forget that the midpoint is selected merely because it is the midpoint, but because price has acknowledged that level several times while in that range).

 

I usually start each day with two "if ... then" type scenarios, one for long, one for short. Sometimes one is a break out scenario while the other is a reversal. Sometimes, as in the case of a chop zone, both are what I consider break outs (I know some would not agree). Somedays, price behaves in a manner that fails to provide an opportunity in either scenario. Many days it plays out as though it were scripted. I try always to have levels in mind at which I will be looking for a reversal or a break. By "levels", I mean zone or concentrated range of S/R. Also, remember that when I trade the ES I usually require price to have tested a break point twice before I am willing to believe in the break out.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Do you ever look for any types of setups that occur early in the morning on futures Thales? I am asking as it seems like the typical reversal type 1-2-3s occur sometime in the evening, particularly after a morning where price has been trending for some time in one direction.

 

But in the morning, it seems like this usually does not happen. I know you look for a certain type of behavior amongst the stocks you trade. But if you where looking at say a 24 hour chart of your future, do you play things any differently during the first 90 minutes or so during trading than normal?

[thalestrader 14]

J - E - T - S

 

 

 

JETS! JETS! JETS!

 

 

I'm long The Jets.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

J - E - T - S

 

 

 

JETS! JETS! JETS!

 

 

I'm long The Jets.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

That's a bold trade right there. You might be buying a super strong selloff here.

[thalestrader 14]

Do you ever look for any types of setups that occur early in the morning on futures Thales?

 

I do not particularly like trading stocks in the afternoon.

 

I usually do not initiate new futures trades after 2:30-3:00PM EST and will not trade until close to Tokyo.

 

Other than that, if I'm awake and my computer is on, I've come to trade.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

That's a bold trade right there. You might be buying a super strong selloff here.

 

I ain't scared of Real Time either!

 

Go Jets!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I'm long The Jets.

 

Stopped for -13 ticks.

 

For me, football season is over, and the rest if mere formality. For those who still have a dog in the fihgt, good luck!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Ok, back to charts ... here is the current look at the EURUSD. Sorry for the late post.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jonbig04 10]

Ok, back to charts ... here is the current look at the EURUSD. Sorry for the late post.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Nice, hopefully sellers can push it past the 1.4121 area.

[thalestrader 14]

Ok, back to charts ... here is the current look at the EURUSD. Sorry for the late post.

 

Price trading to the magenta line would be my cue move my stop to break even. Tough call, but rules are rules, so break even on the stop it is.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jands 10]

I thought I would finally make a post of a trade, just sorry it is so late, I got filled and it was time to put the girls to bed.

 

Anyhow, I included a picture of the trading platform showing this is a real account. I had some ill timed problems that took my account way down. Soooo, I'm having to use Massive Crazy Clown Car Leverage to trade, and if I get two trades in a row wrong, that will probably end this account.

 

Why am I doing this, hopefully to show what I've learned from this thread and that using patience and waiting for the right trade will do. I may only have a few trades a week or less, but if I make money, that is better than trading a lot and losing money. I'm not picking on anyone, just talking from experience;)

 

So thank you to everyone on the thread, wish me luck, cause this small of an account I will need at least a little!

 

Good trading,

 

jands

 

BTW, I will work on the colors and and labeling the entry and exits on later charts. Hope you can still read them.

[jands 10]

I thought I would finally make a post of a trade, just sorry it is so late, I got filled and it was time to put the girls to bed.

 

Anyhow, I included a picture of the trading platform showing this is a real account. I had some ill timed problems that took my account way down. Soooo, I'm having to use Massive Crazy Clown Car Leverage to trade, and if I get two trades in a row wrong, that will probably end this account.

 

Why am I doing this, hopefully to show what I've learned from this thread and that using patience and waiting for the right trade will do. I may only have a few trades a week or less, but if I make money, that is better than trading a lot and losing money. I'm not picking on anyone, just talking from experience;)

 

So thank you to everyone on the thread, wish me luck, cause this small of an account I will need at least a little!

 

Good trading,

 

jands

 

BTW, I will work on the colors and and labeling the entry and exits on later charts. Hope you can still read them.

 

Well just got stopped out for Breakeven after being 2 pips away from my profit order. Darn putting my girls to bed:crap: I wouldn't pass that up, silly me!

 

Till next time,

 

jands

[traverse 10]

new to this thread. a friend shared it with me a couple days ago.

I've skipped around reading, spent hours so far but have only scratched the surface.

 

First time I've even charted currencies so I have no idea what I'm doing. I was attempting to draw trades on this chart, I found the indicator for tick volume. I have no idea how accurate this is, comments on the use of any form of volume indication on currencies would be appreciated. I assumed basic price volume relationships(Onielism) are intact.

first trade long on pullback, the increase in pace on breakout made me feel it would hold.

2nd trade short after LH was made on big decrease in pace, Due to that I moved first entry up to the faster 1,2,3. , added at slower level. the increase of pace as price started down confirms the move?

If it follows price volume relationships it should have another wave down.

[thalestrader 14]

comments on the use of any form of volume indication on currencies would be appreciated.

 

While I find volume useful for swing trading stocks based on daily chart information, I have not found it useful for day trading. As for spot currencies, I am not sure you can even get accurate data on volume, as you are only going to get the volume traded at your market maker (at least I assume so, unless someone has put together an aggregate feed that taps into the multitude of bucket shops). I myself do not use volume at all for day trading any instrument. However, I'd be interested in seeing how others apply volume to making trading decisions in real time (entering, managing, exiting a trade).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales