This is My Method, Do You Think I'm on the Right Road?

[Guest zugli]

Hi all,

in the last 2 years I developed a methodology that produces the results of the pictures in attachment. And I'm able to be consistent.

Commissions are enormous with this method but I feel very in safe like this.

I really would be happy to know your opinions and suggestions.

Thank you in advance

[StrangeTastingFishSticks 10]

Hi. It's hard to read but looks like a scalping system? Looks like you are more profitable than not. How many trades a day does this produce? What is expectancy? Is it automated?

[Guest zugli]

No it's not automated, it's me in front of the screen in various time frames. It's a kind of "soft" scalping. The track record is a simulation with Ninja, that it seems to me simulate in the right way fills. In this example I made 90 trades in 2,5 hours of work, as you see very small profits each.

[Guest zugli]

Here are my trades today in the last 2 hours, I hope pictures quality is better...

[brownsfan019 17]

I have a few observations:

 

1) SIMULATION: Simulation trading can be very misleading, esp with scalping and especially with the ES. In order for you to count these trades, you need to assume that price traded THROUGH your exit level, not just tip it. In other words, if your exit is 800.00, price needs to touch 800.25. Same with entries if using limit orders.

 

2) COMMISSIONS: If you pull this off in real-time, you'll need to get your commissions substantially down. This includes negotiating w/ your broker and also seeing if renting/owning a seat will help. I would guess that if you are trading this much you'll want to at least rent a seat to get discounted rates.

[diablo272 10]

I agree with BF, though the simulation in Ninja is very conservative and generally realistic in terms of its fills, especially when trading live data.

 

Though if you can make $1000-$2000/contract consistently trading 2 hours per day, I'd say that's very impressive.

[StrangeTastingFishSticks 10]

I know i couldn't make so many trades in a 2 hr period like that, but great U can. How long have you been consistent on the simulator? When will U take this live?

[daedalus 10]

Honestly the results look really good for a scalping system. Your losses are very few and sized about perfectly compared to your wins. Some people scalp for 2 ticks but then they give up 12 ticks on a loss... that stuff isn't going to work in the long run but it looks like your entries and your management are very solid.

 

Just make sure your allowing your entries a real fill (since it is in sim) as other have said, price needs to trade through your order by 1 tick and 99% of the time you will be filled. As long as that is the case with your entries i'd say that is VERY impressive.

 

Obviously I don't expect you to share your entries but i'm just curious what kind of stuff you would look at for scalping? Candles? S/R? Fibs? Its just such a different mindset than what a lot of traders use I was just curious what you would focus on for entries.

 

If you could just give a broad answer that would be great.

[Guest zugli]

Dear all, thank you for your answers.

Brownsfan, at the moment I pay less then 4,5$ RT with my broker, the point at the moment is have something working in the hands, then looking to save money paying less commissions, I agree with you. In the settings of Ninja simulator I put the delay setting 3 times more big and I will simulate like this now. Part of my ts is to enter and exit "buy bid" and "sell ask" to gain 2 ticks instead of lose with market orders, so if I want to buy I'm filled ONLY if the sellers come to my bid price, otherwise I'm not interested in entering the trade long 1 tick more high.

StrangeTastingFishSticks, sometimes I trade only alf an hour with around 30/40 trades, sometimes 3 hours, but not all together,with around 70/90 trades. Then I know I have to stop because my focus disappear, the difficult is to practice this.

Daedalus, I spent the last 2 years now following miniS&P price action in different time frames, in different time windows, and its relation with price levels that now, I think, I can identify quickly in real time. I use also 2 mavg. The shortest chart is 30 sec but when there is liquidity I enter and exit in a 4000 tick chart. I hope Daedalus I was useful.

[Guest zugli]

Here are the last 22 trades of today (after my previous attachment) with the fills delay of Ninja simulator setted 3 times more big than default.

[steve46 12]

I think its wonderful that you have some talent for this type of trading. Unfortunately you will probably find that your expenses overcome your profits.

 

I have explained this in another thread. Your short term result is a good one but probably does not reflect what you will encounter in the longer term. Professionals who do this for a living, without exception (as far as I know), do so with benefit of a very low commission rate. Paying above $4 per round turn you will you will eventually find that profits will diminish to the point that you can't maintain this approach.

 

One possible solution might be to lease a IOM seat temporarily and see if you can continue to make it work. You would have to check with the CME exchange for current rates. Then do the math to verify that your volume and profit level will support the investment.

 

Best of luck to you

 

Steve

[OAC 10]

I have to commend you for having the tenacity to stick to this in a simulator for two full years. You are setting a shining example of what every newbie should be striving for: Achieving consistency before ever putting a dime into the market.

[wjrusnak 10]

This might work fine as long as a transaction tax isn't put into place. You'll get destroyed with commissions and tax. Otherwise, good stuff. Either way, it seems you are winning much more than losing, so apparently you're making the right calls and reading the market. Good luck.

[StrangeTastingFishSticks 10]

Personally, I think it is time to let the rubber meet the road. Try this out for a session or three real time and see how you do. It's the only way to tell how it works or how U work. I mean asking here isn't really going to tell U, is it? You've worked pretty hard on this, so let it rip. Look, if it doesn't work out, U know U got some things to work on. Otherwise, U B testing the rest of your time, dude.

[maxwells 10]

Dear all, thank you for your answers.

Brownsfan, at the moment I pay less then 4,5$ RT with my broker, the point at the moment is have something working in the hands, then looking to save money paying less commissions, I agree with you. In the settings of Ninja simulator I put the delay setting 3 times more big and I will simulate like this now. Part of my ts is to enter and exit "buy bid" and "sell ask" to gain 2 ticks instead of lose with market orders, so if I want to buy I'm filled ONLY if the sellers come to my bid price, otherwise I'm not interested in entering the trade long 1 tick more high.

StrangeTastingFishSticks, sometimes I trade only alf an hour with around 30/40 trades, sometimes 3 hours, but not all together,with around 70/90 trades. Then I know I have to stop because my focus disappear, the difficult is to practice this.

Daedalus, I spent the last 2 years now following miniS&P price action in different time frames, in different time windows, and its relation with price levels that now, I think, I can identify quickly in real time. I use also 2 mavg. The shortest chart is 30 sec but when there is liquidity I enter and exit in a 4000 tick chart. I hope Daedalus I was useful.

 

Would you be kind enough to explain what you mean by "relation to price level?" Also, are those level Pivot, fibo, MP or another kind you founded? I guess it s some kind of swing/S/R since you trade in small TF. Tkx

 

Maxwells

[Guest zugli]

Maxwells, S and R levels come in my trading chart from different selected time frames, some are more meaningful, some less. Swing SR, meaningful (for me) fibo, meaningful (for me) movavg. Price action also creates new SR in real time. If I can see this all together and how price moves between (how strong is a reaction from a support, recognize SL hunting...) then I can navigate in safe, I mean with the drowdown of the reports I posted.

I hope I was helpful

[daedalus 10]

Can you still have profitable days if price action goes back to what it was circa 2005-2006 with 4pt intraday ranges?

 

Go back and look at some historical charts... if you can make it in that stuff I think you'll be fine. That is my only worry for you is that IF the market were to revert back to tight congestive small intraday ranges that gettinga tick here or there might be much harder and thus much harder to overcome the commissions.

 

Realistically I don't think you have to worry about that happening for awhile considering the global meltdown thats just becoming evident but I would hate for you to be wildly successful for two years get to trading huge size only to have the market shift on you and your edge evaporate with it.

 

Other than that you're good to go. The results prove it! Go pay yourself.