Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Friday stayed around a mean for most of the day, before a fall in the evening. Overnight, we have moved up slowly, and are testing our overnight highs.

 

Above here we have a high on Friday of 79, but to get there we have to pass the congestion on the way, and at the moment we are close to the mean area of Friday.

 

We have recent lows at 55 and 50, and also at 44.

5aa71228a3709_16June201460Min.jpg.c969cc7d65089fedf7be4a438cabfcde.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Niko,

 

EOD trading is a lot easier on the psyche in my opinion. At least one doesn't have to make rapid fire decisions. With extra time at hand other issues crop up, but the routine is not as much of a time hog. I am paying less attention to what's going on in the intra-day world as it tends to pull me into trading more often. Yet, with slower trading, maybe hourly if one likes, there's more time and less stress.

 

Perhaps changing the bar interval might do the trick. I do believe in your case knowledge isn't the problem, and realistically speaking even SLA in itself, without anything to support it, is enough to keep one from sinking altogether. Take this time to see what you want and whether at this moment in time taking it easier and less glamorously might be the right approach.

 

Gringo

Edited by Gringo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I disagree with most of what game said. The SLA is a simple, straightforward, highly risk-averse, self-correcting approach. Those who can't make it work don't or won't or can't follow the rules. This is not the fault of the approach.

 

If one can't succeed with something this simple, adding more tactics and setups and fiddling with trading size and scaling in and out will likely only make things worse.

 

If one is to succeed at trading, whether by this approach or any other, he must "know the game" perfectly and be competent at playing it. If one is more concerned about making money than he is about trading well, he will neither trade well nor make money. Based on the journals I've read here and at ET, I can't point out anyone who is interested in trading well.

 

Hi, Seeker, how's it going?

 

Very good thanks. I hope you're doing well too. Good to read your insights as always. I disagree with some though. I think he may benefit from scaling out. Looking over a lot of Niko's trades, he often (imo) exits too soon and/or usually on a swing against him, e.g. price moves just below the SL and he's out. His scratched trades are quite small losses, so he could, imo, take partial profits. It might give him the confidence to hang on for the remainder of the position or exit it with less emotion, and turn his scratch losses into a scratch breakeven or thereabouts. A decent % of his entries travel several times his typical scratch. He may not feel comfortable with that, but it's at least something he could investigate. As always, I think we should test ways to improve our trading.

 

I think the SLA is a great approach. Although I don't take entries exactly as described in SLA and have my own way of going about it, for me SLA has been invaluable and I wish I'd known it several years ago. Would have saved a lot of pain.

 

I don't see the point in trading real money while still developing a method. I've done it before, so I'm no better, but it didn't help me. All I learned was that it was something I shouldn't do. It's natural to be afraid if you're not sure what you're supposed to do - and if you have no method and are constantly changing it, then how can you be sure what to do?

 

I'm willing Niko to do well, but as I said, I've found it frustrating, because there are a lot of comments about working on this or that, and I'm not sure what the result of that is. Only Niko knows. What does 'rethink my approach to trading' mean for example? The approach is SLA and AMT. What needs to be rethought? Why not just get down to the nitty gritty and write a clear method down? Then demo it. Then finetune, improve, then demo it etc. What is there to think about?

 

Anyway, good luck with your future Niko, you can do it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Very good thanks. I hope you're doing well too. Good to read your insights as always. I disagree with some though. I think he may benefit from scaling out. Looking over a lot of Niko's trades, he often (imo) exits too soon and/or usually on a swing against him, e.g. price moves just below the SL and he's out. His scratched trades are quite small losses, so he could, imo, take partial profits. It might give him the confidence to hang on for the remainder of the position or exit it with less emotion, and turn his scratch losses into a scratch breakeven or thereabouts. A decent % of his entries travel several times his typical scratch. He may not feel comfortable with that, but it's at least something he could investigate. As always, I think we should test ways to improve our trading.

 

Doing just fine, but I have to disagree with your disagreement. When fear is paramount, trading multiple contracts just isn't appropriate, much less scaling in or out. Until one can follow the rules, adding another layer of complexity serves only to perpetuate and even increase anxiety. If one can get to the point where trading by the rules becomes automatic, he need no longer think much if at all about what to do. This creates about as relaxed a trading environment as possible. Today, for example, there were at least 27pts to be had with only one contract (by 1300), and all one had to do was follow the rules. Wanting more, and adding contracts in order to get more, would result only in winding up with less, probably much less, if one were able to pull the trigger at all.

 

If one is focused on what to do about price action rather than on price action itself, he is far more likely to do the wrong thing -- such as repeatedly going short in an uptrend -- or nothing at all. But if following the rules is automatic, he need not think about what to do at all and can instead focus on price action, which is, after all, the objective.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you can entertain a question Db, I would appreciate it.

 

You mention in Niko's journal that today was a 27 point day by 1300. It of course was an excellent trending day on the way up and down, all of which I mostly missed, but I'm curious about how you would mark up a chart with simply SLA trades.

 

I am attaching mine, not that this is how it should look, but if following each bar as it forms, unfortunately the SLs and DLs might very well look like this. (Although I know this is inappropriate, in real time as the bars are forming, you just never know where your swing highs or lows will be to connect with the previous swing highs and lows).

 

As you can see on my chart, it appears as if the first trade to trigger is the short at A. When price breaks the SL, you can draw one of two DLs. The less steep one doesn't follow price at all since it shoots up, so you'd almost have to use the tighter one, which gets broken not too long after your entry which unfortunately isn't till much higher up (The retracement took a while to present itself).

 

Is there a different way of reading the opening to not put you in the short and have to wait so long for the RET to go long? That very first bar at the open, the longest one that opens and closes on the high is certainly what I would call a rejection bar, traders are showing they don't want price so low since it was bought back up. More telling is the higher low that forms 3 bars later, but by this point you are already in your short, having just entered as you hit the low and price turns around.

 

Anyway, as you can see, my lines are a terrible example of implementing SLA, and there are tons of scratches. So if it wouldn't be too much trouble, could you post a chart outlining the SLA trades?

 

It seems so easy at the end of the day, and I feel as if I would do an excellent job of annotating today's chart with the trades, but the swing points I would use to connect to form the SLs and DLs would all be in hindsight since I know they are there.

 

At the top, where we turn around and come back down, it appears as if the first short isn't till "F", at roughly 3777, but price ends up going up to just under 3780 before it comes back down again so I would be stopped out, which since the tight SL broke I would be out way before then. Now we can clearly see this area is a bit of chop now, and it doesn't clear up again till we get to 72, but by this point I would more than likely be worn down and not trusting any move, fearful it will just chop up some more.

 

Lately I have been following the opening range quite closely, looking more at rejections of going high or low, especially if this is happening at levels that I think are important. But I'm not much further along, and as you say, using a simple method such as SLA should be something that I can do without too much thought before I start getting to creative. I am hunting down ways to enter trades even sooner than SLA would allow, and then use SLA as a means of staying in the trade, but even that isn't working out too well as I get out far too quick.

 

Anyway, so in a long winded way, I wonder if you could outline the SLA trades, how you would draw your lines as they are forming from left to right or comment on my terrible attached chart! :) Thanks.

 

EDIT: Of course I should add that after 2 scratches, you're supposed to wait for price to go to some other level, so hammering away at these shorts and longs is inappropriate, I just wanted to illustrate them as possible entries for the way the lines are drawn the way I would in real time.

5aa71228a987d_SH_Jun.16201417_30_27.thumb.jpg.1ebe20e08f53ca398d19c6207f179631.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kp for what its worth, be aware of the failures, I think you could have entered earlier at a for sure and maybe d too.

The more I watch price the more you will see price turn before the lines, db is right after you understand how price unfolds you are better off without the lines just my 2 cents. This is something I am still working on.

Edited by boru

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So if it wouldn't be too much trouble, could you post a chart outlining the SLA trades?

 

Not again, no. Sorry. No purpose would be served by my providing yet another chart.

 

Those of you who are interested in learning this are going to have to go over your trades for the day and determine how each of those trades illustrate the rules. If the trades do not illustrate the rules, you're going to have to figure out why you took the trade. If the rules called for you to take a trade and you didn't, you're going to have to figure out why you didn't take it (that most of you introduce so much that has nothing to do with the rules may have something to do with it).

 

If the rules can't be followed, it should be remembered that the SLA is not the only trading method there is. Perhaps something mechanical or even automated might provide a better fit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Kp for what its worth, be aware of the failures, I think you could have entered earlier at a for sure and maybe d too.

The more I watch price the more you will see price turn before the lines, db is right after you understand how price unfolds you are better off without the lines just my 2 cents. This is something I am still working on.

 

Hey Boru.. yes... I definitely watch rejections/failures now. I was actually just curuious how he would draw them in today given that he had an exact number of 27 for the point totals. and also since the top half of the chart was quite choppy. I know that when Db draws charts, there is lots to glean from the nuances of why he draws the lines the way he does. (ie. what he skips and what he adds in)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not again, no. Sorry. No purpose would be served by my providing yet another chart.

 

Those of you who are interested in learning this are going to have to go over your trades for the day and determine how each of those trades illustrate the rules. If the trades do not illustrate the rules, you're going to have to figure out why you took the trade. If the rules called for you to take a trade and you didn't, you're going to have to figure out why you didn't take it (that most of you introduce so much that has nothing to do with the rules may have something to do with it).

 

If the rules can't be followed, it should be remembered that the SLA is not the only trading method there is. Perhaps something mechanical or even automated might provide a better fit.

 

No worries, thanks for the reply. SLA is almost as mechanical as you can get... except of course if you think there is value in plotting moving averages and waiting for a crossover.. ;) (of course I know your answer to that though!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know that when Db draws charts, there is lots to glean from the nuances of why he draws the lines the way he does. (ie. what he skips and what he adds in)

 

Nuances come later, after one has achieved competence. You say that your lines are "a terrible example of implementing SLA". Why? You speak of being "worn down" and "not trusting any move". Why? And of being "fearful". Of what? You say you are "hunting down ways to enter trades even sooner than SLA would allow". Why?

 

A large part of the answer to your problems is in your own questions. Either you're willing to trade by the rules or you aren't. If you aren't, then one more chart in addition to the hundreds I've posted isn't going to make the least difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nuances come later, after one has achieved competence. You say that your lines are "a terrible example of implementing SLA". Why? You speak of being "worn down" and "not trusting any move". Why? And of being "fearful". Of what? You say you are "hunting down ways to enter trades even sooner than SLA would allow". Why?

 

A large part of the answer to your problems is in your own questions. Either you're willing to trade by the rules or you aren't. If you aren't, then one more chart in addition to the hundreds I've posted isn't going to make the least difference.

 

It I'm sure mostly comes back to the lack of a trading plan.

 

In terms of "not trusting any moves", I know enough now that it doesn't matter what I think about a move as what I'm essentially wanting is to predict the future which is impossible. There may be nuances to keep one out of a certain set-up given the context, but I can save all that for later. At the moment, there is simply no reason for not taking an SLA trade when it presents itself.

 

The reason I'm hunting down trades that are sooner than SLA would allow is two fold. The RET is there sometimes, contained within the bar so to speak, and if each minute was actually cut off at 55 seconds lets say, then the bars would be packaged differently and the RET would officially be shown in the minute bars (ie. for a long, in the last few seconds before the bar closes, price might spike up, thereby making that bar not close one tick below the previous bar to show the RET in the one minute bar interval chart). So in essence, the RET is there is what I'm thinking, and hence its somewhat sooner than a straight SLA trade if what would have been my trigger bar ends up closing higher than the previous bar.

 

The second reason is fear of price moving against me if I have a fixed stop loss of lets say 2 points. So if the SLA entry is many points away from where the change in trend seems to be, price can still retrace some more, more than 2 points away from the entry, perhaps even testing the price at which the trend change began, and yet still not invalidate the trade. So then I'm left with either breaking a firm stop loss rule, which mostly comes from fear anyway, or playing the hoping game. After a hand full of trades now, I have seen that on almost every trade, my exists, be they for profit taking or taking the loss, are usually at the worst possible place, meaning that a better exit almost always presents itself for either a smaller loss, or greater profit, or even what was going to be a loss turns around into profit. So giving price a bit of room is essential. (I have been planing for a while now to do an analysis when I get to 50 trades lets say to track the outcome, my win/loss, and more importantly, was the win taken too soon, and could the loss have been less if I held on just a bit longer.)

 

So the lack of a trading plan creeps in with not having defined how steep I would draw my lines, when I would fan them, what constitutes a line break... etc. In essence, its not so much that I can't follow rules, its that I see that in the moment, I don't actually have a rule that specifically tells me what to. If you're going to change the oil in your car, its fairly straight forward in that you get a bucket, unscrew the bolt, let the oil flow out, and change the filter. But when in the middle of it, right under the car, when I loosen the bolt and oil starts coming out, I haven't planned what to do with the bolt for example... do I still leave it in... do I let it fall into the bucket... do I take it out and wipe it off.... etc.

 

Anyway, as you say, the answer to my problems really is in the questions. If I knew exactly what to do in the moment, I would do it, but because I haven't planned this with precision, it tends to fall apart right in the moment.

 

As you have said many times in other threads though, by solving these problems myself, I will trust them wholeheartedly, and by being the person who makes the plan, it should be easy to do what I have myself outlined sine the trust will be there, once I have something solid. Trading is nice in a way because I don't need someone else to tell me that I've done a good job (even though sometimes I think I am looking for a bit of reassurance), because the proof will be right in the chart, and it will be fairly easy to see if the way I'm reading price action is in fact correct after a statistically sufficient number of trades or not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It I'm sure mostly comes back to the lack of a trading plan.

 

That is correct.

 

The reason I'm hunting down trades that are sooner than SLA would allow is two fold. The RET is there sometimes, contained within the bar so to speak, and if each minute was actually cut off at 55 seconds lets say, then the bars would be packaged differently and the RET would officially be shown in the minute bars (ie. for a long, in the last few seconds before the bar closes, price might spike up, thereby making that bar not close one tick below the previous bar to show the RET in the one minute bar interval chart). So in essence, the RET is there is what I'm thinking, and hence its somewhat sooner than a straight SLA trade if what would have been my trigger bar ends up closing higher than the previous bar.

 

The SLA does not prescribe a particular bar interval. Price is continuous, and waiting for a bar to "close" is a choice. If one is watching price move, he can trade retracements without any regard to bars whatsoever. You're miring yourself in minutiae.

 

In essence, its not so much that I can't follow rules, its that I see that in the moment, I don't actually have a rule that specifically tells me what to.

 

Having rules that you can't or don't follow is no different than having no rules at all, such as your 2pt stop. And if you've "been planning for a while now to do an analysis", why continue trading until you've done it? This is no different that Niko's "skipping" the one-year backtest.

 

What happens after an entry or exit is irrelevant to whatever rule one has developed for the entry or exit. It is more important to prepare for any outcome than to change the rule after every time it's been applied. Changing rules again and again on the basis of an emotional response is self-indulgent.

 

Like nearly everyone else who plays with this, you're twisting yourself into knots because you have no trading plan. The SLA provides the bones of a plan, but you still have to decide what, for example, constitutes a "break". You haven't done that, so what do you expect? Trading success doesn't just "come" simply because one keeps doing it over and over again. If every trading session is an emotional rollercoaster, the pursuit will eventually be abandoned.

 

For the most part, you're just as eager to cut corners and rush ahead as you've always been, so you're not getting anywhere. But this is true of nearly everyone. By taking what they view as every available short-cut, they take far longer than they would have if they had done the work to begin with. The focus is on finding the trade and taking the trade and fretting over the trade and where and how to exit and how to rack up points rather than understanding what's going on. Me me me I I I. The market has zero interest in one's trade, and if one is focused entirely on the state of his trade rather than on what traders are doing, he will find that this approach has been a complete waste of time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today we had a big trend on the open which I didn't get on. There was a retracement after 10 points but I didn't take it thinking that we had a fast rise and were coming near the highs from yesterday. This was a mistake. The rest of the day was fairly normal.

 

1. We shot right up towards Friday's highs at the open. I placed a short on the double top after the demand line break. It stopped out after a few minutes. We made several lows at 72.5 and then headed upwards.

 

2. I put a short on the little retracement here. This made it back to 75 which is the mid point of the high and low of the last few days. This area seems to be improtant this morning.

 

3. Another short on retracement, which I left to see if it would break the previous swing high or go lower. Eventually it went lower back to the open levels.

5aa71228af319_16June2014.thumb.jpg.9b60c59159af25f3584e0b32afd81a05.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The SLA does not prescribe a particular bar interval. Price is continuous, and waiting for a bar to "close" is a choice. If one is watching price move, he can trade retracements without any regard to bars whatsoever. You're miring yourself in minutiae.

 

Having rules that you can't or don't follow is no different than having no rules at all, such as your 2pt stop. And if you've "been planning for a while now to do an analysis", why continue trading until you've done it?

 

Trading success doesn't just "come" simply because one keeps doing it over and over again. If every trading session is an emotional rollercoaster, the pursuit will eventually be abandoned.

 

For the most part, you're just as eager to cut corners and rush ahead as you've always been, so you're not getting anywhere. But this is true of nearly everyone. By taking what they view as every available short-cut, they take far longer than they would have if they had done the work to begin with. The focus is on finding the trade and taking the trade and fretting over the trade and where and how to exit and how to rack up points rather than understanding what's going on. Me me me I I I. The market has zero interest in one's trade, and if one is focused entirely on the state of his trade rather than on what traders are doing, he will find that this approach has been a complete waste of time.

 

With regards to retracements, I had always thought this, and suspected that it was proper to get in sooner, even if the retracement wasn't obvious on a static chart, and that if you see it form in real time this was good enough, so thank-you for the confirmation.

 

My only explanation for all your other points you make is simply that I wanted to see what would happen. I wanted to see how I would react, what stupid things I could do, how I would be affected by being in a trade. Reading about how Niko was getting chopped up a few times by trading in chop that was a bit of over-trading, I could see that this in fact wasn't my problem. If anything, I was/am under-trading in that I wasn't taking legitimate trades, and the few times I did get in inappropriately was based on fear of missing out, and getting in much too late at that point.

 

As you say, the market has no interest in my trade, and its interesting to see how much this changes my perception when I am in a trade. Seeing this is what made me want to search for better entries, getting a better price, giving up a bit of confirmation.

 

I do absolutely see with my own eyes now how there is no need to panic, and that better exits present themselves as I've said earlier. This is something that for me was difficult to see without actually being in a trade because I didn't think I would be so desperate to get out so quick had I not been in a trade. So in a way, I think I needed to throw myself in to see what my problems would be, to see how I would react to the market and the tug of war that would ensue between my brain and my emotions.

 

Its been a struggle between knowing that trading SLA should be easy if you follow rules, and I know the rules, so why not just go forward live with SLA, and at the same time wanting to make sure I'm not cutting corners as you say.

 

I absolutely appreciate your insight of course. I have a history of doing things the wrong way initially I think, just to see how they turn out, to feel the pain a bit, to make sure I'm not going to have beginners luck and assume this is easy and subsequently fight it all the way to the bottom. In a way, knowing this is hard, its almost as if I'm trying to make it hard so that I don't learn right from the start that this is easy.

 

Your wise words are sinking in, I keep reading them over and over again, and one day my internal fight with myself will come to an end and I will just start seeing what is and accept it and work based off that. I do think I'm actually getting somewhere and the coming days and weeks will be proof of this one way or another.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday we had an up and down day around the eventual mean. Overnight we passed the daytime highs and reached 86, before falling in the morning back to the mean levels. We have highs 81 and 86 and lows at 65, 55 and 50, and it looks like we are in an upward channel on the hourly chart also.

5aa71228b5d58_17June201460Min.jpg.593ab16947963cb2c1fb4c57e716fc57.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Doing just fine, but I have to disagree with your disagreement. When fear is paramount, trading multiple contracts just isn't appropriate, much less scaling in or out. Until one can follow the rules, adding another layer of complexity serves only to perpetuate and even increase anxiety. If one can get to the point where trading by the rules becomes automatic, he need no longer think much if at all about what to do. This creates about as relaxed a trading environment as possible. Today, for example, there were at least 27pts to be had with only one contract (by 1300), and all one had to do was follow the rules. Wanting more, and adding contracts in order to get more, would result only in winding up with less, probably much less, if one were able to pull the trigger at all.

 

If one is focused on what to do about price action rather than on price action itself, he is far more likely to do the wrong thing -- such as repeatedly going short in an uptrend -- or nothing at all. But if following the rules is automatic, he need not think about what to do at all and can instead focus on price action, which is, after all, the objective.

 

Well you may well be right. It's hard to give advice, and know for sure what will work for someone else. I can only refer to my own history. And that was that I felt a lot of fear when I had uncertainty of what to do in my system (in fact initially I didn't have a system fully worked out). Then later when I did, I still had some fear, because I hasn't proved that the system worked in demo for long enough. I went in circles. So many circles it is dizzying thinking about it now, so much time wasted fooling myself that I was working on it, when really I was avoiding the hard work. Eventually I got down to writing the system, testing it, improving, test, practice and that was a far more productive circle to be in. I was an idiot and lazy for a long time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No worries, thanks for the reply. SLA is almost as mechanical as you can get... except of course if you think there is value in plotting moving averages and waiting for a crossover.. ;) (of course I know your answer to that though!)

 

There's not one way to do things. DB has kindly given a structure for a plan. Why not make it your own.

 

On the chart you posted, you can take a short at A, but then there's a higher low not long after, so you could take that long on the break of the 8:35 bar (I think that's the time(. Or you could decide you're in a triangle, and wait for a break out from there, 8:37 bar closes clear out. Could take it immediately, could wait for a break of that bar, could wait for the first retracement. DB has given some rules to keep one out of trouble, but that doesn't mean it's the only way of playing it.

 

If you took the short at A, you have a small loss. If you took the higher low, you probably have a large win. The close above the triangle/hinge, a good win, the first retracement after at B, a good win.

 

C you could take short if you want, although you're going against quite a strong up move (DB once posted about if it can't even retrace 50% of the previous swing it might not be worth taking, although that's not set in stone, just an idea). In any case you have drawn a supply line downwards on 3 down bars. There's no lower high as such, or is there? You decide what a swing point is for your plan. For me there's no swing so I wouldn't draw the line, nor would I draw that next demand line, there's not two swing lows to connect, so I wouldn't take D. I'd still be in short from C (if I took it) and see plenty of reasons to not let that trade turn into a loss. The three attempts which couldn't go lower for example. One could even take a long there, or wait for the break from the SL, or wait for the first retracement afterwards, which may be at E, or may be some bars later again depending on how you define swing/retracement.

 

So maybe you take E and maybe a small loss, or maybe you think that the E trade is basically at a new high, and you prefer to trade long near a relative low extreme. Again, choices, so many of them.

 

Then maybe that low near D, you fan the line out when the new high is made for the day. Perhaps when price moves below this DL, you get a shorting opportunity near the top and earlier than F...or maybe not. If F is a swing, then why isn't the SL tighter? If it is, then you have a possible exit for small profit and a possible long 5 or 6 bars later. Or again, maybe since it hasn't retraced more than 50% of that downswing, you decide not to take the long.

 

Maybe you only take trades like this in the direction of the daily trend, or hourly trend or whatever. Maybe just one trade a day. Or maybe you don't just have these straight lines, you also denote horizontal ranges, like the one near the top, or you have a higher timeframe view about where support and resistance might come in. It's your choice, your trade plan. Why do you need DB to tell you, he's already given the idea, test it yourself. Pick a consistent way of doing it, then grab pen and paper (or a spreadsheet) and see how that way does. Try it with market replay if you can.

Edited by Seeker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well you may well be right. It's hard to give advice, and know for sure what will work for someone else. I can only refer to my own history. And that was that I felt a lot of fear when I had uncertainty of what to do in my system (in fact initially I didn't have a system fully worked out). Then later when I did, I still had some fear, because I hasn't proved that the system worked in demo for long enough. I went in circles. So many circles it is dizzying thinking about it now, so much time wasted fooling myself that I was working on it, when really I was avoiding the hard work. Eventually I got down to writing the system, testing it, improving, test, practice and that was a far more productive circle to be in. I was an idiot and lazy for a long time.

 

Will follow your path :) . Will post back when done or if I have a question, whatever comes first.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

from the slaamtzen thread:

 

Well you may well be right. It's hard to give advice, and know for sure what will work for someone else. I can only refer to my own history. And that was that I felt a lot of fear when I had uncertainty of what to do in my system (in fact initially I didn't have a system fully worked out). Then later when I did, I still had some fear, because I hasn't proved that the system worked in demo for long enough. I went in circles. So many circles it is dizzying thinking about it now, so much time wasted fooling myself that I was working on it, when really I was avoiding the hard work. Eventually I got down to writing the system, testing it, improving, test, practice and that was a far more productive circle to be in. I was an idiot and lazy for a long time.

 

Your experience is typical except that you came out the other side. Most don't. They find no excitement in putting together a trading plan, no glamour, no opportunities for heroics. They consider observation, hypothesizing, backtesting, forwardtesting, and even simtrading to be drudgery. Real-time trading with real money is where the action is, so they'll spend twenty years or more trying to achieve without a trading plan what they could achieve in months if only they'd learn to crawl before spending hundreds of dollars on running shoes and trying to compete with professionals.

 

It's a mystery. No one believes that he can play championship tennis or golf without ever taking a lesson, that he can become a concert pianist without ever doing scales, that he can become a professional chef without knowing the first thing about food chemistry. But one can become a professional trader simply by buying or shorting what seems like a good idea and hoping for the best. It should come as no surprise that so few are able to make a go of this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decided to mostly just watch the price today. It was a clean up and down day with many retracements for entries.

 

 

1. It went below the overnight range, and then turned back upwards. There is a subsequent higher low at the overnight low before we head up past todays open.

 

2. There are numerous retracements on the way up to the highs.We eventually stop below the highs at 86.

 

3. Lower high as the rise stops. I marked a short here, and as before we have a number of retracements during the fall to the level where we opened.

5aa71228c1639_17June2014.thumb.jpg.d8a7f9db7310bee4128264469ca9c628.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the hourly chart we are at the mean of our channel, and may see a movement towards either extreme today.

 

Yesterday we had a low of 63 and a high of 85, and we eventually settled down to the mean of 74 overnight. In the morning we have moved up towards 80 and have held above the mean for now.

 

We have to test the extremes of the overnight high or low at 80 and 71, before we can look at yesterdays highs and lows.

5aa71228c64a3_18June201460Min.jpg.74edf99f1b4f954bf7b0471fffb5b756.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Maybe you only take trades like this in the direction of the daily trend, or hourly trend or whatever. Maybe just one trade a day. Or maybe you don't just have these straight lines, you also denote horizontal ranges, like the one near the top, or you have a higher timeframe view about where support and resistance might come in. It's your choice, your trade plan. Why do you need DB to tell you, he's already given the idea, test it yourself. Pick a consistent way of doing it, then grab pen and paper (or a spreadsheet) and see how that way does. Try it with market replay if you can.

 

Hi Seeker... yes, you're right, Db has provided plenty and its just a matter of testing to see what works. Its kind of exciting also to know that when I have something I put together myself, I will understand exactly how it works.

 

I have already seen myself that each time I'm wanting to exit a trade, its much better for me to wait as at least 80% of the time, price either comes back closer to my entry point and hence allows me to exit at a smaller loss, or if exiting for a profit, there is a bit more profit to squeeze out, or, best of all, what would have been a loss turns into profit. The trouble really is taking the bigger hit once, perhaps a 4 point loss or 5 points, knowing that over the long run, this will actually add up to more points profit since waiting is statistically on my side.

 

At any rate... this is just about the most rewarding en devour I can think of because the potential is really quite unlimited, unlike so many other financial pursuits that either go nowhere or have a built-in ceiling that cannot be crossed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I disagree with most of what game said. The SLA is a simple, straightforward, highly risk-averse, self-correcting approach. Those who can't make it work don't or won't or can't follow the rules. This is not the fault of the approach.

 

If one can't succeed with something this simple, adding more tactics and setups and fiddling with trading size and scaling in and out will likely only make things worse.

 

If one is to succeed at trading, whether by this approach or any other, he must "know the game" perfectly and be competent at playing it. If one is more concerned about making money than he is about trading well, he will neither trade well nor make money. Based on the journals I've read here and at ET, I can't point out anyone who is interested in trading well.

 

Hi, Seeker, how's it going?

glad to see you are still your cheerful self Edited by DbPhoenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Will follow your path :) . Will post back when done or if I have a question, whatever comes first.

 

Follow your own path Niko. Mine was longer than necessary and I'm nobody to follow. You have all the tools and info you need.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Follow your own path Niko. Mine was longer than necessary and I'm nobody to follow. You have all the tools and info you need.

 

Thank you, what I meant was that I need to finish the whole testing, I always started it but never got around it, so I will not make that same mistake again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By vishnux
      Hey guys , what are the main things you look for to detect if the consolidation area is accumulating or distributing ? 
      1 ) I see springs in top , still markup happens and it becomes accumulation area and vice versa
      2) There is lots of volume absorption in support line and still markdown occurs.
      3) sometimes in market high / low it becomes re-accumulation  / re-distribution
      Is there any clear way to find it ? 
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 29th October 2020.Apple – Earnings Tonight.APPLE, DailyThe world’s largest company, APPLE (APPL), report their 4th quarter earnings ending September 30th after the close of the New York stock market later today The consensus among analysts is for revenues of $64 billion versus $64 billion in Q4 2019 and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69 (with estimates ranging from 0.54 to 0.8) versus $0.76 in the same quarter last year.Apple hardware has been clearly hit from the disruption in the supply chains, starting with factories and shops in China and rippling out across the wider distribution and production facilities in Asia, Europe and then North and Latin America. iPhone sales are likely to miss estimates, but likely to be compensated for by increases in services and possibly other hardware.Style, design and being the best premium product has always been at the core of what Apple does and the big move in recent years has been away from this dominance of hardware (even though the iPhone still accounts for over 60% of revenues) to invest significantly in services. The initial move was a partnership in 2015 with IBM and Cisco to try to break into the corporate market; this has been followed by Apple Pay and more recently the long awaited upgrade for Apple TV.Apple TV+ was launched in November 2019. Initially it was only to be in the USA but it was then made available to 100 countries at an extremely competitive $4.99 per month. Apple has entered a very crowded video-streaming marketplace, which remains dominated by Netflix, but includes Amazon and Disney. Apple Services is a growing revenue stream within the technology giant and TV+ marks its latest attempt to diversify its dependence from the ubiquitous iPhone. The aggressive pricing structuring, undercutting its competitors, is a break from traditional Apple pricing models. However, the poor reviews and weak content in the first few months of launch have been disappointing. Disney+ with a huge back-catalogue and equally as aggressive pricing has been the new winner in the streaming wars. Netflix missed expectations last week, but as subscriber numbers continue to grow, what will we see for AppleTV+?However, this quarter saw the delayed launch of the much heralded iPhone 12 with (finally) 5G capabilities. The buzz word from Apple is the dawn of a new “super cycle” of upgrades, as many in the companies home country of the USA have delayed upgrading awaiting the 5G model. However, 5G coverage in the US is patchy and sporadic and with a highly diffused network of poor signal areas. A lot could depend on the iPhone 12, is the pent-up demand there to be taken advantage of ? Early market gossip and market news suggest their is indeed that demand.As ever, guidance and outlook will be key with some analysts expecting a hit on revenues because of the iPhone 12 delay and figures could be as low as $60.00 billion. (JP Morgan).Overall the services and wearables business, including sales of AirPods and Apple Watch consumables is expected to show a hefty 17-24% growth year on year.In the midst of the Pandemic, Apple announced the launch of the iPhone SE retailing at $399.00, the issue of the cut price iPhone proved a significant success and offered simple churn of existing sales rather than any enhancement of new replacement units. can signs of the upgrade cycle be announced tonight ?The major Wall Street banks have price targets for the stock ranging from $150 down to $49. The consensus among 41 analyst is a target price of $122 with 23 of the 41 recommending a Buy or Strong Buy rating and none of the 41 with a Sell rating. The stock currently trades at $114.00.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • whatever you frkn do, do not think about the great reset... I'm just sayin https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/10/18/whose-great-reset-fight-for-our-future-technocracy-vs-republic/
    • Another day where ‘half’ the US population is utilizing the MSM and social media networks to do everything in their power to deny, occlude, and censor Pop’s use of his ‘family’ in pay for play schemes over the years (definitely excluding the Typhoon investigations,  etc, etc.) while the other ‘half’ of the US population is transfixed on the contents of Hunter’s laptop,  not quite fully acknowledging it’s a Joe issue, not a Hunter issue - because not  much ‘influence peddling’ gets done without an influencer... I’m just sayin’ ... Meanwhile, the election fraud mentioned months ago up here now only requires major cheating in 3 geographic areas... easily accomplished since votes are not vetted anymore in most places.    
    • Date : 28th October 2020.Alphabet Q3 earnings: Focus on advertising revenue.Once again the FAANGs excluding Netflix plan to report their earnings the same day within 30 minutes of each other. FAANGs illustrate 20% of the S&P500’s total value. Even though most of them face increasing antitrust scrutiny, all posted an impressive rally this year as their shares have surged and sustained close to record highs as the pandemic reckoned with online services such as shopping, streaming, clouds.Hence in addition to our earnings articles, today we will focus also on Alphabet’s third quarter earnings for 2020 which will be reported along with the rest of the giants. Just a quick reminder, Alphabet Inc. is a holding company and Google’s parent company. The company’s businesses include Google Inc. (which is the largest one) and its Internet products, such as Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Nest, Verily, Waymo and X. The company’s segments include Google and Other Bets.Alphabet’s report will be key after its first year-over-year revenue decline in company history in Q2 as a result of the lack of advertisement demand from the majority of businesses amid the economic slowdown globally. However the forecasts for Q3 have the company well positioned with the consensus recommendation “strong buy”, corresponding to the majority of the consensus recommendation from Reuters Eikon, as 30 out of 36 analyst firms recommend “buy” and “strong buy”, while only 6 recommend ‘hold’. Hence, no analyst firm is making a “sell” or “underperform” recommendation for the company.GROWTH FOR ALPHABET INCAccording to Zacks Investment Research and Reuters Refinitiv, the information service is expected to have $11.33 in earnings per share during the third quarter of 2020, which represents a yearly rise of 12% since the reported EPS for the fiscal quarter ending September 2019. Focus should also turn onto the revenues number which is projected to hit a 6% yoy spike, to around $42.8 billion, from the $40.49 billion reported last year. Net sales meanwhile are seen at $35.26 billion.Revenue by business segment:   Google Search & Other (ad revenue, dominated by Google Search) – consensus of $24.96 billion* YouTube ads – consensus of $4.38 billion* Google Network (ad sales on third-party websites/apps) – consensus of $5.07 billion (down 4%) Google Cloud – consensus of $3.32 billion* Google Other (Play Store, hardware, YouTube subscriptions) – consensus of $5.11 billion* Other Bets (Google Fiber, Verily, Waymo, etc.) – consensus of $153 million (down 1%) Despite the huge diversification of its portfolio, Alphabet Inc earns nearly 71% of its revenue from advertising. Hence even though, the travel sector is still weak the majority of the analysts remain bullish on the advertisement services of Alphabet into Q3 given the slightly ‘temporary as it seems’ recovery that we have seen as the pandemic eased over the summer and business began reopening. Morgan Stanley stated also that they came into earnings season positive about the online ad market recovery but grew more optimistic following Snap’s blowout ad revenue beat and better-than-expected ad results from Verizon subsidiary AOL, Sirius-owned Pandora, and Interpublic Group.The positive consensus for Q3 could also be driven by the shift of Alphabet to Google Play and YouTube to help its partners support their businesses. The majority of the analysts believe that we could see strength in YouTube ad pricing and the return of brand spending in its channel checks.Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai however highlighted in his latest statements GOOGL’s focus on non-advertising segments. Like tech giant and its cloudspace rival Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), GOOGL has the capacity and resources to strategically pivot, from a large “legacy” company to an aggressive emergent; in this case, from search to various ‘other segments’ offering potential growth.Meanwhile, the risks that Alphabet faces ahead of the report is the solid competition from Amazon in advertising business and cloud services but also the cold headwinds on the earnings front in addition to emerging regulatory challenges. Coming off a not-so-stellar Q1 reporting season, GOOGL fell short in Q2, reporting its first ever year-over-year quarterly decline.Earlier this week, the Justice Department, along with 11 Republican state attorneys general, filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google, alleging an unlawful monopoly on search services and advertising. US Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen called GOOGL, “the gateway to the internet” and said the company “has maintained its monopoly power through exclusionary practices that are harmful to competition.”At this stage, we have to point out that a consensus recommendation, similarly to economic data forecasts, has a significant effect on the near-term stock price, as it represents a company’s wealth picture. Hence on every earning report, stock price is highly influenced by the comparison between the outcome and the expectations. The market tends to react positively if the outcome comes in better or at least in line with the forecast, while the price moves lower if the reported earnings miss expectations.Technically, the current Google price action has posted a sharp rally since the March panic with the stock rebounding from the $1,000 area to record highs at $1,732.41. Currently the asset is traded at the $1,524 area which is just a 23.6% loss from all-years highs. The overall bias remains strongly positive even though medium term momentum indicators signal a potential pullback lower.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 27th October 2020.USD improves, GBP Mixed, CB decisions & TRY.The Dollar firmed up into the London open and beyond, paring declines seen earlier in pre-Europe trading in Asia. The move drove gold and oil prices lower, too, indicating there has been some depth in dollar buying, although the magnitude of movement hasn’t been great.US equity index futures have managed modest gains after the S&P 500 closed with a 1.9% loss yesterday, though investor sentiment in global markets remains decidedly restive. Most Asian stock markets declined, and Australia’s ASX 200 equity index closed with a 1.7% loss in its worst single day performance in a month. Soaring positive Covid tests and the associated trend toward increasingly restrictive countermeasures, along with the risk of next week’s US election results being contested, and the delay in US stimulus relief, are keeping markets on edge. Overall strong Q3 economic data are being overlooked as markets look to what is appearing to be a grim winter ahead in the northern hemisphere, with risks of a double dip recession being factored in, especially in Europe. Amid this, the Dollar has been holding up, despite a narrowing in nominal US yields relative to peers in recent days, including Bunds and JGBs, revealing that the US currency is functioning as a safe haven currency again.The USDIndex index lifted back above 93.00, though remains down on yesterday’s and Friday’s highs at 93.11-13. EURUSD tipped back to levels around 1.1800 after posting a high at 1.1836. USDJPY remained settled in the upper 104.00s in what could be termed a consolidation of the steep decline seen last Wednesday but has tested below S1 below to 104.60. The pair remains about 0.7% down from week-ago levels. Sterling continued to trade without direction, overall, holding over 1.3000 around 1.3020. EU and UK trade talks continue in London through to tomorrow before relocating to Brussels. They are reportedly working to a mid-November deadline.Taking a step back, the currencies that are showing the biggest gains on the year-to-date are the ones that most would expect to have risen against the backdrop of the global pandemic crisis, being currencies of current account surplus economies, specifically ones that don’t have a high commodity export component. Thereby the Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen are the biggest gainers, while the dollar bloc and the likes of the South African Rand and Russian Ruble, among others, are showing the biggest year-to-date declines, save the politically savaged Turkish Lira. Turkey seems to be in dispute with all its neighbours and some further afield. The Central Bank holding rates last week has not helped its predicament – USDTRY printed a new all time high earlier at 8.1580.USDCAD lifted out of a correction low at 1.3169, with oil prices, although up yesterday’s lows, coming under moderate pressure during the early London session. WTI benchmark crude prices are down 6.5% from week-ago levels, and prospects for a sustained rebound look to be limited given the supply glut and weakening demand as Covid-containing measures intensify across Europe and some parts of North America. This backdrop should keep USDCAD underpinned. The pair has been trending lower since March, though we have been noting trend derailing risks. A run to levels around 1.3500 and above seems possible, as the BOC decision tomorrow and the US Election next week remain the key immediate fundamentals .Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.