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[DbPhoenix 42]

The view at 0700:

.........................

 

 

0815: Price drops below 77, but the short entry off the ret is not triggered. Price moves back into the range.

Edited April 23, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

The view at 0700:

.........................

 

 

0815: Price drops below 77, but the short entry off the ret is not triggered. Price moves back into the range.

[DbPhoenix 42]

We have an overnight range from 77 to 88, with a midpoint of 83. We made another attempt at 88 a few hours ago, failed and fell to the bottom of the range. In the morning we have and tried to escape the range and returned inside and we are heading for the mean again.

 

If we break below the range, I would look for the opportunity for a short, keeping an eye on the levels from yesterday. We have various swing lows, and a 50% at 67 to watch for, along with the mean of yesterday's morning channel at around 54.

 

I was kind of surprised that we didn't make it to the previous swing high of 600 after getting so close. It wouldn't take much of a push today to get us up there, and I would look for a long if price heads that direction. If it gets there I would be aware that we may get a quick reversal, or at least some consolidation around the area. If price just pushes through without stopping, then I can assume that the long is the correct direction.

 

This is as good an example of What Do I Do Next as one can expect in the early stages of learning how to trade rationally.

[Bern 10]

I am going on a short vacation till next Thursday and I will not post here till then.

[Niko 10]

And for tomorrow:

.............................................

 

So we made it to the bottom

[DbPhoenix 42]

SLA trades for this morning:

[DbPhoenix 42]

SLA trades for this morning:

[Niko 10]

SLA trades for this morning:

 

I only followed the market until the rejection of 52, but it was pretty much the same thing as far as entries go. I think I am still closing the 1 lot too early.

 

Another thing, why not the REV at the open?

 

What REV at the open?

Edited April 26, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

I only followed the market until the rejection of 52, but it was pretty much the same thing as far as entries go. I think I am still closing the 1 lot too early.

 

Another thing, why not the REV at the open?

 

What REV at the open?

[Niko 10]

What REV at the open?

 

They ran out of buyers at 80 just after the open, it was inside a very tiny range so my "REV" is more like the prelude of the BO, I had 77.50 as an entry so that is why I asked.

 

BTW, what did I miss there

 

77 was a line in the sand since yesterday afternoon. I wanted to see it broken first. Three points is not that big a deal.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

They ran out of buyers at 80 just after the open, it was inside a very tiny range so my "REV" is more like the prelude of the BO, I had 77.50 as an entry so that is why I asked.

 

BTW, what did I miss there

 

77 was a line in the sand since yesterday afternoon. I wanted to see it broken first. Three points is not that big a deal.

[DbPhoenix 42]

The chart on the left was posted yesterday evening. The chart on the right is today's session. These illustrate as well as anything the value of AMT.

 

If you didn't rake in a sizeable portion of this today, why not?

[DbPhoenix 42]

The chart on the left was posted yesterday evening. The chart on the right is today's session. These illustrate as well as anything the value of AMT.

 

If you didn't rake in a sizeable portion of this today, why not?

[Gringo 10]

The above looks eerily similar to what's in the SLA-AMT file.

 

1) Use AMT to identify an extreme.

2) Wait for price to reach it.

2) Start using SLA when that extreme is reached.

 

Can it get simpler than this?

 

Gringo

[DbPhoenix 42]

The above looks eerily similar to what's in the SLA-AMT file.

 

1) Use AMT to identify an extreme.

2) Wait for price to reach it.

2) Start using SLA when that extreme is reached.

 

Can it get simpler than this?

 

Gringo

 

Really.

...............

[green.green 10]

The chart on the left was posted yesterday evening. The chart on the right is today's session. These illustrate as well as anything the value of AMT.

 

If you didn't rake in a sizeable portion of this today, why not?

 

I was looking at those same lines and I thought to myself - it's against the rules. I need to keep reminding myself that the lines are there to show the mean and the rules sometimes need to be fudged to do that.

 

I did find something that worked. Yesterday basically doubled the range and I guess apple went crazy after the close and caused our interesting overnight session.

 

(Let's see how many days this takes to post.)

[green.green 10]

I've modified my longer-term tick chart. I basically went back to the original supply line we had drawn on 3/19 and moved the lower parallel to somewhere that makes some sense. With these current lines we see 3/21, 4/2 and today as overbought and 4/15 as oversold. Although this captures the extremes well enough I lack confidence in it defining the mean at all based on prior price action.

 

Am I just curve fitting?

[DbPhoenix 42]

I was looking at those same lines and I thought to myself - it's against the rules. I need to keep reminding myself that the lines are there to show the mean and the rules sometimes need to be fudged to do that.

 

I did find something that worked. Yesterday basically doubled the range and I guess apple went crazy after the close and caused our interesting overnight session.

 

(Let's see how many days this takes to post.)

 

Your UL is drawn incorrectly, but how is this against the rules? The point is to track demand and supply. My chart does just that. And did. Confirmed by subsequent price action.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I've modified my longer-term tick chart. I basically went back to the original supply line we had drawn on 3/19 and moved the lower parallel to somewhere that makes some sense. With these current lines we see 3/21, 4/2 and today as overbought and 4/15 as oversold. Although this captures the extremes well enough I lack confidence in it defining the mean at all based on prior price action.

 

Am I just curve fitting?

 

If you move the LL, then you lose all the OS information. You're drawing these lines in hindsight. If they are going to be of any use, you have to draw them left to right, not right to left.

 

You may want to open up a journal if this is to be ongoing.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Unusual to post essentially the same chart three days in a row:

 

 

 

 

0837: While most do not like to trade pre-market for some reason, I should point out here that we came within 2pts of the UL after the Claims reports. This provided a legitimate short op. Whether it succeeds or not is of course unknowable. (Edit: short entry came 17m later)

 

0910: Rather than post another chart, I'll just point out that the mean of this channel is around 3600, which we are rapidly approaching. If we get there, that will provide a 14pt profit before the opening bell.

Edited April 24, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

Unusual to post essentially the same chart three days in a row:

 

 

 

 

0837: While most do not like to trade pre-market for some reason, I should point out here that we came within 2pts of the UL after the Claims reports. This provided a legitimate short op. Whether it succeeds or not is of course unknowable. (Edit: short entry came 17m later)

 

0910: Rather than post another chart, I'll just point out that the mean of this channel is around 3600, which we are rapidly approaching. If we get there, that will provide a 14pt profit before the opening bell.

[YertleTurtle 10]

If you move the LL, then you lose all the OS information. You're drawing these lines in hindsight. If they are going to be of any use, you have to draw them left to right, not right to left.

 

You may want to open up a journal if this is to be ongoing.

 

What is OS? The new SLA document is first class.

 

Oversold. OB=overbought.

Edited April 25, 2014 by DbPhoenix

[DbPhoenix 42]

What is OS? The new SLA document is first class.

 

Oversold. OB=overbought.

[Niko 10]

Unusual to post essentially the same chart three days in a row:

 

 

 

 

0837: While most do not like to trade pre-market for some reason, I should point out here that we came within 2pts of the UL after the Claims reports. This provided a legitimate short op. Whether it succeeds or not is of course unknowable. (Edit: short entry came 17m later)

 

So far is succeeding

[DbPhoenix 42]

So far is succeeding

 

SO, but still a good trade. You never know.

 

Now we wait for the opening reconciliation.

 

0929: A DT and a Dog. Here we go again.

 

0931: And here we are at 3600. The LL, of course, is around 3580.

Edited April 26, 2014 by DbPhoenix