Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

DannyBly

USD/JPY Golden Cross

Recommended Posts

Although momentum has slowed down on the daily chart, the 50 and 200 SMA's appear poised to cross over with further movement to the upside (golden cross). We have resistance to the upside at 108.58 and support rising underneath with the up trendline that forms the bottom of the channel as shown on the chart. Looking for bullish follow through if the recent resistance at 108.58 can be violated and the 50 and 200 SMA's cross.

 

usdjpysun.jpg

 

Analysis By TradersLog.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Although momentum has slowed down on the daily chart, the 50 and 200 SMA's appear poised to cross over with further movement to the upside (golden cross). We have resistance to the upside at 108.58 and support rising underneath with the up trendline that forms the bottom of the channel as shown on the chart. Looking for bullish follow through if the recent resistance at 108.58 can be violated and the 50 and 200 SMA's cross.

 

Hmmm.... it appears that Oanda doesn't use a true simple moving average formula to compute their SMA's. It appears they're using something closer to a Weighted moving average.

 

Here is the daily chart I use with the 50 and 200 SMA's in black (ignore the other junk). You'll see that they are no where close to crossing over, yet, and price is currently on the UNDERSIDE of the 200 SMA (which has been perhaps helping to hold price down).

 

I'm personally on the other side of your trade - looking for price to return back into the 105/106 range on $/yen. I don't believe the fundamentals support an interest rate hike by the Fed and any lasting hawkishness in their statement will be diffused quickly when the markets realize that the Fed is hogtied. If they raise rates, they risk losing control of the progress they have made with the financials. The fundamentals are far from what the Fed would probably like to see (stability in housing prices).

 

They're essentially damned if they do, and damned if they don't. Their own inflation readings are also not much hotter than they have been in recent months (although I personally think the inflation numbers are so badly cooked that they don't resemble reality - but the Fed still relies on them - supposedly). End result: they're forced into playing with verbs. Talk the inflation talk to try and help keep the dollar elevated (to control inflation), but don't walk the walk for fear of completely destroying everything they've done so far. Talk is powerful, but if they muck this up by causing the market to think that they won't hike, the negative impacts could be pretty strong. Unfortunately for them, this game will only work so long before the markets lose confidence.

 

It'll be an interesting day tomorrow... the ranges have been contracting. A breakout smells imminent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't believe the fundamentals support an interest rate hike by the Fed and any lasting hawkishness in their statement will be diffused quickly when the markets realize that the Fed is hogtied. If they raise rates, they risk losing control of the progress they have made with the financials. The fundamentals are far from what the Fed would probably like to see (stability in housing prices).

 

They're essentially damned if they do, and damned if they don't. Their own inflation readings are also not much hotter than they have been in recent months (although I personally think the inflation numbers are so badly cooked that they don't resemble reality - but the Fed still relies on them - supposedly). End result: they're forced into playing with verbs. Talk the inflation talk to try and help keep the dollar elevated (to control inflation), but don't walk the walk for fear of completely destroying everything they've done so far. Talk is powerful, but if they muck this up by causing the market to think that they won't hike, the negative impacts could be pretty strong. Unfortunately for them, this game will only work so long before the markets lose confidence.

 

Cowpip:

Very nice way you nutshelled a pretty complex subject on the eve of some news that assures us of some money being made for some and lost for others tomorrow!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest forsearch
Hmmm.... it appears that Oanda doesn't use a true simple moving average formula to compute their SMA's. It appears they're using something closer to a Weighted moving average.

 

Here is the daily chart I use with the 50 and 200 SMA's in black (ignore the other junk). You'll see that they are no where close to crossing over, yet, and price is currently on the UNDERSIDE of the 200 SMA (which has been perhaps helping to hold price down).

 

Keep in mind that long range Moving Averages, especially EMAs, require a significant amount of data in order to chart properly.

 

Thus, unless proven otherwise, you must follow the dictum set forth by Ronald Reagan:

 

"Trust, but verify."

 

-fs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's true, but for SMA's, only the number of days being computed should be necessary (for a 200 day sma, only 201 days of data should be needed). I'm pretty certain Oanda has that kind of data in the cache, and I know for a fact that MetaTrader does (which I like to use as a charting package). I trust MetaTrader more than Oanda. If I plot a weighted 200 day MA using MetaTrader, I get nearly an identical plot to what I see with Oanda (give or take a small bit). So I'm really curious why Oanda is calling it a SMA when it clearly does not appear to be. It's an oddity.

 

As you say, trust, but verify. That's so important.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Question: To those that had/have cancer, what were the signs that made you think “something is not right here” to make you go see a doctor? Answer: So, 5/25/2018, I woke up, got ready for work, and as I walked to my car, I started gagging. Like something was stuck in my throat and I needed to clear it. And then it went away.   But 10 minutes after that, I was T-boned at 40mph on the driver side door. But what made me see a doctor was while my muscles felt better and bruises were going away, the gagging still continued, I started having fevers, my neck felt swollen, I was having such a hard time breathing, and I'd have random sharp pains in my chest, but not from where the seat belt saved me.   2 weeks after the accident, I finally see an urgent care doctor, who looks me over, tells me I'm fine, but luckily requests a neck X-ray. And I ask for a chest X-ray, which he rolls his eyes but let me have (most of my pain was in the neck, so I understand).   The very next day, he calls and says “So, that chest X-ray shows there's a 4 inch mass on your heart and lungs, and your lungs have been filling up with fluid, as well as in your pericardial (heart) wall. We need you to come in tomorrow.”   Turns out the big mass, due to the accident, caused my heart and lungs to tear and fill with fluid, the swollen neck and gagging was caused by 2 metastasized tumors, and the fevers and weight loss were symptoms. Stage 4b Hodgkin's Lymphoma.   But thankfully, we went very aggressive with chemo (and had a lot of bad side effects that don't normally happen to patients), and now I'm about 16 months cancer-free. Yay lucky X-rays! Rachel Jurina, Quora Source: https://www.quora.com/To-those-that-had-have-cancer-what-were-the-signs-that-made-you-think-something-is-not-right-here-to-make-you-go-see-a-doctor   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/  
    • As a man, the reality of life is the harshest part. I don’t mind looking older or becoming weaker over time; it’s nature.   Have you ever heard that the only people who will be loved unconditionally are women and children? Men will only be loved as long as they can provide until they are no longer needed. It doesn’t matter if you already did your best to get your kids to the best school or get the best things for them, if you stop before they’re done with it, there will be no thank you. The only thing they will remember is that they have to quit school at 15, ignoring all the previous 15 years of life you provided for them. The only people who will accept you, no matter what, are your parents. But in this situation, you might be that ungrateful child.   EDIT: Wow, I didn’t think this would get so much attention.   For those who disagree, I can only say that everyone has their problem. If you don’t get the chance to face such a thing, be grateful. Remember, sometimes what you throw in the garbage is something that someone wishes ever to have.” – ElZee, Quora   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • The good thing i had noticed so far is that the traderpot value is also on the rise..
    • yup its a gradual rollout the right way in my opinion, its really good and its exciting for the sto in 2027
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.