Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

firewalker

Trade Discussion and Analysis

Recommended Posts

This thread is for discussing charts and explaining trade entries/exits. People are free to post any kind of chart, with or without annotations and engage in rational discussion. I am hoping enough people will open up and show their entries/exits on a chart and explain the reasoning behind them. Feel free to ask questions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll explain the reasoning behind me long trade posted live here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/35841-post5.html

 

The entry was long at 12930 on the DOW (all prices are quoted from the futures). First of all, it's important to have context. Yesterday's context made me look for the long side, instead of short side.

 

First of all, going back a couple of days: +/- 12780 was an important level. On more than one occasion:

 

- on May 7 and May 8 that was the low of the day, price finding support there

- on May 9, it provided resistance and supply coming in there, effectively turning price around for that day

- on May 12, it's where the market opened

- yesterday, we had a selling climax and a re-test on that level

 

This is a chart of yesterday. I went long on the re-test, but that doesn't matter very much, because I don't hold my positions overnight.

 

6372d1210781033-trade-discussion-and-analysis-ym_20080513.jpg

 

As a result of that, I only stayed in the long trade till the end of the day and missed the run-up that happened on the open today. Better wishing you were in, than wishing you were out though.

 

More importantly, with a selling climax and strength in the background, I was looking to take a long position today, preferably at the best price possible, near 840-850. Unfortunately, they didn't exactly make it easy for me, price opened with a very strong push upwards.

 

Most people would then be looking for a short around 920-930 (resistance). I know it's exactly what I would have done in my early days. One reason is frustration of having missed the earlier entry, the other reason is wanting to take a trade. But I've learnt to control that - at least to some extent, still more learning to do!

 

So I waited for a retracement where I could enter. There's less potential, but at least it is trading in the right direction. My entry was at 12930 when resistance turned into support. See chart.

 

6373d1210781471-trade-discussion-and-analysis-ym_20080514a.jpg

 

13030 is the next resistance level, but 970 is another hurdle before we can think of that (look at May 4, 5 and 6). I'm not getting too optimistic, especially since we are - as I type this - not exactly moving higher much and volume is thin. But then again, it's lunchtime...

ym_20080513.jpg.f2ed41580dd997762785f31208a8dada.jpg

ym_20080514a.jpg.7027b2d6574464f4810e3133202d57c0.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A very simple rejection of the highs with weakness on the last leg up after 36 hours up movement.

 

Trend about to be broken and both pushed thrice at the highs.

shorts.thumb.gif.e7f011a25c5be4fbe99c225c98fc81cb.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately I was asleep to catch the reversal optimum point on the S/R and uptrend but ces't la vie, 60 pips anyhow.

 

So albeit late, reversed on the bounce off S/R and trendline cross on both pairs. The highs from yesterday are in view and the line chart shows the congestion between the two levels. ATM, its 50/50 apart from the fact we are in an uptrend and the EJ has broken the highs already...

 

Another rejection and break of the uptrend will cancel all this and SAR again but thats trading!

yens.thumb.gif.7c8c7c214900cd9cda9e6162e4606610.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately I was too eager with my trendlines and watching EJ made me exit and SAR that GJ position only to take a loss and SAR again. Must pay more attention to what I draw! :crap:

5aa70e60cf75b_mybad.gif.a5aa27df8739ee15588443a056f1fee3.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'll explain the reasoning behind me long trade posted live here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/35841-post5.html

 

The entry was long at 12930 on the DOW (all prices are quoted from the futures). First of all, it's important to have context. Yesterday's context made me look for the long side, instead of short side.

 

First of all, going back a couple of days: +/- 12780 was an important level. On more than one occasion:

 

- on May 7 and May 8 that was the low of the day, price finding support there

- on May 9, it provided resistance and supply coming in there, effectively turning price around for that day

- on May 12, it's where the market opened

- yesterday, we had a selling climax and a re-test on that level

 

This is a chart of yesterday. I went long on the re-test, but that doesn't matter very much, because I don't hold my positions overnight.

 

6372d1210781033-trade-discussion-and-analysis-ym_20080513.jpg

 

As a result of that, I only stayed in the long trade till the end of the day and missed the run-up that happened on the open today. Better wishing you were in, than wishing you were out though.

 

More importantly, with a selling climax and strength in the background, I was looking to take a long position today, preferably at the best price possible, near 840-850. Unfortunately, they didn't exactly make it easy for me, price opened with a very strong push upwards.

 

Most people would then be looking for a short around 920-930 (resistance). I know it's exactly what I would have done in my early days. One reason is frustration of having missed the earlier entry, the other reason is wanting to take a trade. But I've learnt to control that - at least to some extent, still more learning to do!

 

So I waited for a retracement where I could enter. There's less potential, but at least it is trading in the right direction. My entry was at 12930 when resistance turned into support. See chart.

 

6373d1210781471-trade-discussion-and-analysis-ym_20080514a.jpg

 

13030 is the next resistance level, but 970 is another hurdle before we can think of that (look at May 4, 5 and 6). I'm not getting too optimistic, especially since we are - as I type this - not exactly moving higher much and volume is thin. But then again, it's lunchtime...

 

 

Hi FW,

 

Did you have 920-930 highlighted as Resistance premarket or did you gauge it intramarket after price stalled there momentarily?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi FW,

 

Did you have 920-930 highlighted as Resistance premarket or did you gauge it intramarket after price stalled there momentarily?

 

The blue lines you see were drawn from left to right, meaning they were there before the day opened. So yes, I had it highlighted premarket.

 

Welcome smb :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know if this is the right word ('preclusion') but I've often realized that - when thinking of taking a trade - one should think if he would reverse if he were in a position.

 

Usually helps in taking counter-trend trades which don't offer the necessary potential to warrant the risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

my long on GJ this evening.

 

A bounce from support and cross of the ST trend. The strength of the down move does not convince me we are heading far down tonight so in for the long, I have an SAR level below my stop so ride the overnight move and see if we break back down tomorrow or head up for 205.

 

All that said, it and EJ have just woken up and dropped so this may be over before I finish typing!

gj.thumb.gif.837a23b3a8e067e36260a5b49f5ef2f6.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apologies for thread integrity ... Wasp, here are the pictures, first of channels which I personally prefer to trendlines for displaying trend integrity and second of 3 line fans for potential trend change.

 

With channels I started off with andrews babson but ended up using the left hand side to define the slope for the right hand side.

.

kw_ej_channel.thumb.png.5ffcdfa1c6bbec3a4154f1d713b28082.png

kw_fan_breaks.thumb.png.8f1acb5cdcaebc12a7414b0ae5597a8e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cheers Nine, I'l see if I can get soultrader or someone to juggle the posts about tomorrow.

 

There seems to be more then my brain is getting around atm so will reply in the morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't post this on the Wyckoff thread because only one person there trades the NQ intraday. And at this point it's hardly live. But no one else mentioned it anywhere. And it's a picture-perfect Wyckoff setup, and I hate to see it drift by unnoticed. So.....

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6429&stc=1&d=1210904348

 

1950 is support, and even though the volume on the test is only slightly lighter than on the "climax", it's not heavier, either. Then afterward, a hinge. The entry, in order to avoid whipsaws and feints, is on volume just above 1970, five bars past the point of the hinge.

 

Too bad these don't come along more often.

Image6.gif.b7a27f9dec5a897daf6b7364da81e338.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wasp I posted those alternative line structures in the wrong thread (but can't delete it and can't seem to find a "complain button" to get the mods to move it) so here's the link:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f130/live-fx-trades-3848.html#post36161

 

Kiwi - I moved that post you linked to. You can use the big yellow "S" to report your own post to a mod and explain why (move, delete duplicate, etc.).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I didn't post this on the Wyckoff thread because only one person there trades the NQ intraday. And at this point it's hardly live. But no one else mentioned it anywhere. And it's a picture-perfect Wyckoff setup, and I hate to see it drift by unnoticed. So.....

 

1950 is support, and even though the volume on the test is only slightly lighter than on the "climax", it's not heavier, either. Then afterward, a hinge. The entry, in order to avoid whipsaws and feints, is on volume just above 1970, five bars past the point of the hinge.

 

Too bad these don't come along more often.

 

Thanks for contributing here. But you mention intraday trading, yet you post a 30-minute chart of the last couple of days... Anyway, you seem to be comparing volume from different days. I've often found it difficult to do so, because Fridays and pre-holiday days for example sometimes have a tendency to 'drift' on lower volume. Unless I'm taking into account the daily picture, it seems difficult to reconcile the overnight/premarket action with any possible pattern that comes up. You just ignore it then?

 

Setting that aside, it looks a rather late entry, comparing what Wyckoff tells about entering on the selling climax and adding on the re-test...

 

If this was an intraday chart, I would consider the earlier rise in volume (green dot) as another possible entry signal. Followed by a "no supply" bar on very low volume with no effect, after which price rises on increasing volume.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6435&stc=1&d=1210926870

db_hinge.GIF.3d9c1240e55c547b495b10302c5798b8.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While days appear to be discrete, they are in fact the result of everything that's gone before, even though the details may not be immediately apparent. Therefore, an intraday setup can and usually is the result of something that's happened the previous day, or even the previous week. The "30m" display is for consolidation only. A 1m chart would show the same thing, only with 30 times more bars. And it would of course be much wider. As to the overnite, sometimes it matters and sometimes it doesn't. If in doubt, plot a CVB chart. In this case, the CVB chart and the time bar chart are the same (if you have a potential hinge, plot both; it's important to know whether or not volume is declining during the formation of the hinge).

 

As for being late, the test occurred pre-market, and not everybody wants to enter trades then, even if they can. In any case, the immediate hinge may stop out the trader who's trading tight. And even if he has a wide stop, he may not be comfortable sitting there and waiting throughout the hinge (the perfect scenario works out only in hindsight). He may elect instead to exit and stand aside until the market decides what it wants to do.

 

As for entering at the apex of the hinge, that is an option ("no supply" is VSA, and I'd rather not get into anything having to do with VSA), but since there has already been one attempt to take price down and another attempt to take price up, both of which were faded, the trader may want to wait until the market has shown its hand. In this case, waiting for the volume -- i.e., the professional interest -- makes it a much higher-probability trade. I should also point out that your green dot is placed at a point which is shortly before the close, and not everyone has the cojones to enter such a trade at such a time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Apologies for thread integrity ... Wasp, here are the pictures, first of channels which I personally prefer to trendlines for displaying trend integrity and second of 3 line fans for potential trend change.

 

With channels I started off with andrews babson but ended up using the left hand side to define the slope for the right hand side.

.

 

Hi Kiwi,

 

First up, nice charts! Who do you use?

 

interesting charts. Are they all self drawn lines? Who is Andrew Babson? Does he mind you using him!?!!

 

Whilst I can see what the lines are telling you, I can't tell how you'd use them specifically?

 

Prey tell............

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I should also point out that your green dot is placed at a point which is shortly before the close, and not everyone has the cojones to enter such a trade at such a time.

 

True, that's why I was hypothesizing "if this were an intraday chart"...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there such a thing as free intraday YM futures charting? I have cash on metatrader but would be good to follow you guys and watch the movements...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.