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firewalker

Trade Discussion and Analysis

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Getting a bit fed up with lagging trendlines and going to try this week as attached.

 

There may be some bizarre calls and losses but all the clues are there. S/R lines from 240m stays and usual 25p stops....

anew.thumb.gif.0a96aec014b1f5f09ff05a2580ce9175.gif

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I think I said something like that 5 days ago ;)

 

I know but these up moves are so ****ing pitiful that I am just hoping the short will come to get it out of this stupid up-trend and go back to some big swings or into a down trend.

 

I can't even swap markets as the EURUSD and GBPUSD, as well as GBPJPY is the same..... Why can't people move it as easily on the rise as well as the fall! :angry:

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I know but these up moves are so ****ing pitiful that I am just hoping the short will come to get it out of this stupid up-trend and go back to some big swings or into a down trend.

 

I can't even swap markets as the EURUSD and GBPUSD, as well as GBPJPY is the same..... Why can't people move it as easily on the rise as well as the fall! :angry:

 

you mean to tell us that you were not aware of the entirety of this beforehand?

 

(arent you shooting yourself in the foot, since you beleive the 240-mins are the key, yet you are trading off events not near the 240-min pivotal areas.)

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you mean to tell us that you were not aware of the entirety of this beforehand?

 

Yes, but I live in eternal hope!

 

(arent you shooting yourself in the foot, since you beleive the 240-mins are the key, yet you are trading off events not near the 240-min pivotal areas.)

 

Yes I am, thought I'd be able to do better with candle analysis but decided to stick with my simple methods as you note there. I'm not clever enough to do the whole candle by candle analysis! I know when I'm pushing it!

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I'll be back when the ranges come back too.... this is not worth getting out of bed for :( :ciao:

 

Swapping to longer term trades in the meantime...

range.thumb.gif.3380de42bbca5c58bf1c1d05b597dfdb.gif

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go big FW!

 

I look at hourly and daily charts too... and sometimes I wonder whether swing trading can yield to better profits, but I quickly realize it would be difficult to do so, especially since there are less opportunities. If you have 10 trades a year or 100 or 1000, there are more swings to catch and short term trends to ride. Ofcourse you don't want to get into every little tiny retracement.

 

Basic problem I had this week, was that there was no or little follow through to the downside. I've attached some red dots, I don't know all my entries by head but these should be close. After the trendline from 13130 to 12450 broke, I should have realized it might consolidate or retrace a portion of that move. Unfortunately I was too focused on a trend continuation that I shorted each swing up, instead of taking the long at 12450 when there was no Lower low. Beside, the level had been support from in the past.

 

I'll write some more of this in my blog, because this thread isn't about me. But this is one of those moves where if you shorted from the high, stayed in till the TL broke, you could've bagged about 600 points. With intraday trading (which means close out at the EOD), you've got no other option than to re-enter each day. But only in an ideal environment you get that entry where you want it, and sometimes price runs of without you...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6831&stc=1&d=1212231985

ym_shorts.thumb.GIF.0f46bbf28091476c00fa633db1e555ce.GIF

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This is exactly the same problem I have had with EJ lately. The bigger TF trend has been up yet, I take long and short signals so when the market hits that larger TF on the uptrend, the shorts have no follow through and I'm late on the long instead.

 

Life is much easier when markets swing up and down and great returns can be made from both swings but it is a bit harder in an uptrend.

 

For me, I do not label myself as _____ trader, I just go with the flow of the market and with FX, that is easier as we never close... thus switching to holding for a few days a time is much easier.

 

Anyhow, I'll contribute more on your blog as you post.

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Just extended your major dtl and circled where traders stepped up to the plate before........

erie

 

 

Interesting. By extending it do you pay attention to it, I mean, do you expect that trendline to provide clues to the action in the future?

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Interesting. By extending it do you pay attention to it, I mean, do you expect that trendline to provide clues to the action in the future?

 

Why not? It is a major TL. It is not predicting , but anticipating........( yes I pay attention to it)

erie

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Why not? It is a major TL. It is not predicting , but anticipating........( yes I pay attention to it)

erie

 

I know it's not predicting.

As to "why not", I'd say basically because it's been breached. The trend might still be down, but I believe that any reactions to that line in the future will be mostly coincidental. But each to their own :)

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I know it's not predicting.

As to "why not", I'd say basically because it's been breached. The trend might still be down, but I believe that any reactions to that line in the future will be mostly coincidental. But each to their own :)

 

It's not to my own :) the Bible: Technical analysis of stock trends, by Edwards and Magee discusses extending major TL's .

erie

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It's not to my own :) the Bible: Technical analysis of stock trends, by Edwards and Magee discusses extending major TL's .

erie

 

The only reason I would extend a trendline is to see if there is a 'reaction' afterwards (what Schabacker calls a throwback) from the other side.

 

If we take the red line dbphoenix annotated as the correct trendline, than you can see there is a potential throwback (green oval), but it coincides with my S/R zone around 12700. So for me, it's just coincidental.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=6907&stc=1&d=1212586903

 

I'm curious as to what practical implications are for extending the trendline beyond this point. What exactly would you expect to see after the line has already been breached and touched from the other side and price is moving away from it?

throwback.GIF.b4d5f8ec797137a10daf049838264ff3.GIF

Edited by firewalker

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The only reason I would extend a trendline is to see if there is a 'reaction' afterwards (what Schabacker calls a throwback) from the other side.

 

If we take the red line dbphoenix annotated as the correct trendline, than you can see there is a potential throwback (green oval), but it coincides with my S/R zone around 12700. So for me, it's just coincidental.

 

I'm curious as to what practical implications are for extending the trendline beyond this point. What exactly would you expect to see after the line has already been breached and touched from the other side and price is moving away from it?

 

If we take Db's trendline as the correct one then price is still under it, correct?

erie

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If we take Db's trendline as the correct one then price is still under it, correct?

erie

 

"still" yes, now it is again :)

 

But not after it spent several weeks above it. Not just sticky above it, but clearly in free space...

If you read the chart from left to right then one could see this:

(a) break of the trendline end of April

(b) touched the trendline around May 9 from the top side and went higher

© continued to move higher towards last week of May, byebye downtrend?

 

I mean, S/R may be broken at one point, but it can still provide S/R later. I'm not that sure about what it is exactly you expect trendlines to do after they've been breached (other than show the 'general' movement is still downwards, but you don't need a trendline for that).

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"still" yes, now it is again :)

 

I mean, S/R may be broken at one point, but it can still provide S/R later. I'm not that sure about what it is exactly you expect trendlines to do after they've been breached (other than show the 'general' movement is still downwards, but you don't need a trendline for that).

 

All I said was to extend a "major" trendline, the trendline gives general direction ( you've already said that ) . As far as breaching a trendline it, just shows a change in sentiment, that sentiment could be temporary and then a resumption of the major trend. It is different with short term trendlines, generally they are what they are, short term in nature. As a daytrader you basically deal with short term trendlines.

erie

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IMO, that trendline in red is dead and should have been stopped when price crossed it and ignored from then on, a new trendline drawn (as was in black). Any touches thereafter as fw says, purely coincidential. It is no longer valid nor useful.

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