Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Dogpile

ES Trading for 10/1 thru 10/5 2007

Recommended Posts

This thread is to discuss market structure and trading for the week of Oct 1 - Oct 5, 2007.

 

Friday potentially started a 'down auction' with a morning high put in after a reversal day on 9/25 began an 'up auction'. That said, Fridays volume distribution shows buyers interested in the 1537.00 to 1540.00 zone. It was last day of the 3rd quarter so this makes the read on this a little difficult.

 

Thus, we have a selling tail above 41.00 and then a 'symmetrical distribution' after the morning move down. We closed in a 'balanced' state.

 

We have a case of sector rotation where nasdaq stocks have been marching up while other sectors chopped around last week (XLF/XLE).

 

Investors Business Daily tracks 'distriubtion days' -- defined as days where the nasdaq drops -0.8% or more. Note how common these days are on the volatile nasdaq index. We have now gone 9 days without a distribution day and are due for one this week.

5aa70e0b02b5f_Sep28TaylorChartandBalancingLevels.thumb.png.983b02b247eaafe42f60f7de4b013c0c.png

5aa70e0b070b2_Sep28FinalVolumeDistribution.png.1df0092546931525d1b00c8e246025c8.png

5aa70e0b0d5bc_Sep28ChartofQQQQdistributiondays.thumb.png.139d129c3ad7561d033daa2dfefc44d0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overlapping/lower value for Friday and the peak volume price was below the value area for thursdays trading. Volume also increased with a fair amount of volume happening to the downside. Just hoping this week isn't sleep just waiting for the jobs number Friday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

powerfull open.

i think i'm done reading/watching anything that would give me a directional bias. i had been looking for the breakout to go long above 1545 since thursday, then watched that MP/COT video in the DOM thread this morning and it biased me i should be looking to short at that area. enough of that, that was just stupid. be interesting to see if we start a new balance area here and previous resistance becomes support.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am always uncomfortable buying at high levels after a big rush up. Always have been and have missed moves because of it. The way I see it, after a big rush up, there's not always enough juice to push it higher for the amount I'd want to take out of it. The bullish thing is that it's consolidating at the highs, so just correcting by time instead of price. I wouldn't be suprised if price broke out to the upside for some more gains, but I'd be long, cautiously.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is a bullish day but short-term location is tough.

 

significant volume has occured at 1548.25-50... implying some patient, responsive sellers at/above this level. tough to expect MORE momentum away from this level -- but that doesn't make it a good short given the theme for the day.

 

As I write this, market has built now 56k contracts at 48.25... This is often a significant-enough amount to mark a peak for the day...

 

Someday, the 15-min chart will correct and offer a buy zone.

5aa70e0b46397_Oct11109amESTProfile.thumb.png.c146a3faa8ec73ee38f9d7f66667e3d9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

sweet chart dogpile. actually i can't rememer now if Jerry stays out of trades when price is that close to the PVP but there is good skew but that doesn't seem to be working.

i guess this is pretty straight up open drive. to advanced location for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

skew doesn't really matter when it's a trend day. this is the reason you don't short -- we busted through those 48.25 sellers with new initiative buying.

 

'trend days' are rare and only happen a few times a month. but this is exactly the reason I have begun trading a mechanical daily strategy in another account. Range expansion off of opening price after a short-term downswing is an extremely powerful set-up. trend days are difficult to trade as the strategies appropriate for a trend day (buy and hold) are not good strategies for the other 18-odd trading days of the month...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yea, location for me today was realll tough. I ended up grabbing a small short on the NQ cause I wasn't seeing what I wanted on the ES. Trend days are the toughest for me to trade by far, nothin like a nice volume big swing day to make ya feel good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

volume distribution shows trend day -- but price found some selling at 1558.00 level. there should be some residual upside momentum/buy pressure today. I will be looking long if we should get a good downswing.

 

attached is the final volume distribution for Monday

5aa70e0ba96ec_Oct1FinalDistribution-trenddayquestionable.png.40ae8c66756e30f279fa8765a023be55.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thinking of doing a late-day short today for an overnight hold

 

we formed a big volume bar at 58.00 yesterday.

we have actually built value (VWAP) below that level today.

we just made a lower high to that level and a lower high to the opening price

(opening price is often a magnet such that it could be underlying weakness if don't make it back to that level 1559.25)

VIX is above yesterdays high

NQ is due for a trend day down

NQ could also close with a 'cap' pattern today if it closes < 2135.25

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

took a late NQ short --- holding overnight -- hopefully INTC or somebody doesn't do anything positive this afternoon.. with some luck, maybe somebody pre-announces a negative quarter.

 

market looks set-up for a good flush down tomorrow. wanted to be there in case it happens overnight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
market looks set-up for a good flush down tomorrow. wanted to be there in case it happens overnight.

 

If you might...would you mind going over why you feel it's setup for a good flush down? And, how do you manage your stops with overnight trades? I've never held a futures contract over night and have no clue how to deal with stops in that situation. I assume your stops are wider than normal for an overnight play?

 

Thanks Dogpile, I appreciate it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yes, I hold a smaller position overnight and play for a larger gain.

 

since you have to ride through the european hours, this makes overnight trades tough as most of the time you will see 2-way action... so I try to be selective on overnight holds. Usually, I am shorting a lower afternoon high or going long a higher afternoon low. I will use a smaller position and my initial stop will be near the swing high/low. If the market moves in your favor in the hours after the close but before european hours, I will move my stop to breakeven -- or take a partial profit and set my stop for remaining such that I have a free-ride.

 

Factor1 why a flush down:

 

Nasdaq is generally a difficult market to 'hold' -- because it has so many shakeout days. What I use to think about this is: any time the days low is less than the previous days close by -0.8%, that is a 'distribution day attempt'. It doesn't have to close that low, just has to go there intraday to shakeout some of the longs. Note the attached chart shows how frequent these are. We have now gone 11 days without such a day.

 

Factor2 why a flush down tomorrow is a decent bet:

 

Yesterday we had a psuedo trend-day up. It ran into a wall at 1558.00 where a lot of volume traded. Today, we built value below 1558.00 and made a lower high in the afternoon (afternoon lower high failed right at 1558.00).

 

thus, I feel we are due for a down day and the market profile seems to confirm that.

 

I could be wrong but I feel it is worth a shot. If we do gap down -- the reward could be large if we do a distribution day.

 

On the other hand, I could be right and still stop out due to overnight noise. Such is life.

 

Also, the market could gap up and then do a distribution day down -- that would mean I stop out but I can then trade that pattern tomorrow live.

 

Thus, the overnight play is kind of a hedge. Very often my thinking going into the next day plays out in the overnight market with a gap and I am then screwed as I didn't catch the move. I use a smaller position so that if I stop out, its not that big of a deal. And ideally, you can take your stop to breakeven and get a free ride on the potential for the move down.

 

I shorted NQ near 36.25. My stop is 38.25 now - the afternoon high. 2 pts maximium risk for potentially 10+ pts down. If the market can trade down before Europe opens, I will take stop to breakeven --- if that stop gets hit and we gap down anyway -- well, then I am sh_t out of luck.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the blind squirrel stumbled on to a nut last night, thanks TinGull.

 

so I rolled out of bed at 4:30am California time. I come down to my computer and see no positions on the top of my screen ('position graph bar' on Tradestation). great, I stopped-out... nope, turns out the computer needed a re-fresh. I stick a limit order in to cover and it fills like 1 minute later. I had no coffee in me yet and was still sleepy. Pure luck - check out the luck of the timing of when I woke up.

5aa70e0bd6733_Oct3NQCover.png.8f0f6db6355044609ae9af8cab24ae7e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.