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walterw

Playing with the VMAR`s open research

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Here I open this new paralel thread so we can play arround freely with some cool nice ideas that vmar`s actually could suggest...

 

I start this thread inspired on Pyenner`s work coding the Vmar on Mt4 on a way some thought we could not get there... it had been surprised that even this last version of Pyenner work has outperformed the original VT version...

 

As he already presented some charts that got me thinking and some posts about possible variations, I know he can play arround freely here as myself and other traders can suggest new inovative aplications of this variations...

 

In my case I already had been doing some research related to scalping with this indicators, then I droped that research as did not have yet Pyenner`s last version of vmar... NOW I am more motivated to pick up again this paralel research and play here on this thread...

 

SO... let the creativity and interaction start... enjoy ¡¡ lets have fun ¡¡

 

hope you guys when trading succesfully remember to give back what God gives us with such generosity... cheers Walter.

 

 

Another day on paradise (Phill Collins)...

 

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Some ramblings as I try to make sense of a new toy.

 

Walter found a VMA indicator made by Bemac for the VT platform and had the sense and experience to see that it offered something special.

 

Walter likes to keep trading simple (otherwise you go nuts!) and the flat lines from Bemac's indicator give a very clear reference mark on a chart for beginning and ending trades and for thinking about your options.

 

But what makes the indicator line go flat?

What makes it switch from following a trend to going flat and then back to trending again?

 

What needs to be improved in the way it-

1. follows trends?

2. changes from trend to flat?

3. changes from flat to trending?

4. does it have more uses still?

 

I think of it as an ADX_VMA because it comes in two parts.

 

The first part of the code is an ADX and some of the advantages come from the way an ADX works. It automatically adjusts itself to any range of sawtooth and ignores it. Instead, it aims at seeking out any trend component hidden in all sorts of choppy rubbish. This is what makes the flat area or horizonal effect possible. When the price goes into a choppy sawtooth the ADX main signal goes low, 0-40% is low. The VMA indicator switches from following the trend to flat line.

 

When a small trend is present the flat region may step up or down a few pips to show that a small trend is happening inside the sawtooth.

 

Once the trend component is big enough compared to the sawtooth component, the ADX gives a bigger signal, 40% up to 70% on a clean trend with little fallback. This lets the indicator switch to trend following.

 

There are adjustments that can be made to how closely it follows a trend and to how cleanly it switches from trend to flat and back again.

What you don't get and maybe don't need is an adjustment for the range of sawtooth movement it should ignore, that part happens automatically inside the ADX and it makes things easy.

 

Nice stuff and it is the ADX that does it. But if you ever tried to trade off an ADX signal you probably went nuts and gave up, too tough.

 

Thats where the VMA part comes in and gives a flat line when the ADX signal is below 40%.

VMA means Veriable Mean Average but what it does is simple.

When the ADX signal is low, it uses a long slow average, many bars or "periods".

When the ADX signal is high, it uses a short fast average, as few as two bars effectively.

 

Think of the fantail, the magenta line is the slowest to curve, it has the longest slowest curve, maybe 100 bars in that average, old news.

The Yellow side of the fantail is fastest, bends quickest, follows the trend closest, maybe 2 or 4 bars in that average, recent news only.

The VMA part decides how many bars to include in its calculation of an average price, many bars give an older price, fewer bars give a recent price.

It can stick with the past or stick with the present or somewhere in between, variable.

 

Trend following uses the prices from just the last few bars and ignores the past.

Flat line uses the past prices and ignores the present until it has something to say thats worth hearing.

 

---------------

 

Walter has experience at trading with the indicator and historical charts only tell you part of the story about what you need from an indicator in order to trade easily with it. So I will rely on his comments and introduce concepts for tuning ADX_VMA performance by using fewer or more "periods" or "bars" or "counts" in a sample or average. Fast means small numbers, slow means big numbers.

 

If the ADX samples too few bars, maybe 4 or less, you get overshoot, it follows the trend after it should have gone flat.

If the ADX uses too many bars, you get undershoot, a slow curve into or out of the flat zone, it should have gone flat quicker than that.

Optimum is somewhere in between.

Time to find a picture.

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Excellent explanation there Pyenner ¡¡ ... thats a great description of the intrinsic reason of why we got an indicator that its unusual and with tremendous edge... certainly the great dilema of TA is the fact that most analist are not able to dicern (at least on the right time) the shift between cyclical and trending conditions... its the big dilema of most traders...

 

Now having this tool in hand you can clearly see the shift from one stage to another...

 

What has powerfully called my attention on this last version Pyenner (and I would suggest numbering the versions from here on ) is the responsivnes of this black line when it starts to move in a direction after being horizontal for some time... it somehow leads (not always) quite a bit on the move...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=2813&stc=1&d=1189572047

 

thats what calls my attention on what implications this could have as a timing tool even on the 5 min chart... the potential its yet not known... we will have to research thoroughly to be able to answer this... but common sense tells me that this type of clean performance its without doubt a good context to be working on... cheers Walter.

rise.thumb.png.be8c4893018df998327424ec06a18ccf.png

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Trend following.

 

This is a slightly different topic from the others.

There are some options to control how closely the VMA base line sticks to the trending prices.

 

Close in with the price gives maximum detail in the base line, is that detail wanted or a nuisance?

 

A slight gap between the VMA line and the price line occurs when you slow down the VMA by using more bars in the minimum sample size. This gives a smoother line when trending, easier on the eye but also means the Base line lags behind the price more, Good news or bad news?

 

Which trend following performance works best for trading?

Yellow (fastest), Blue (bit slower) or magenta (too slow)?

TrendFollowing.thumb.PNG.88acc84c6c2a01c35f14fac7553642d7.PNG

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Let me see if I get this straight... here we have three vma "base lines" with diferent inputs plotted on this 1 min chart... could you tell me what inputs each one have ?

 

 

It is clear that the three lines are having diferent rolls and they all get combined into one particular trend trade...

 

Here I attach my first interpretation of the possible rolls they could have...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=2815&stc=1&d=1189573511

 

 

the magenta and cyan could establish a clean trend... while the yellow could give timing as it raises from horizontal effect (laddering)... some ideas... thinking in loud voice here... I like this interaction Pyenner... keep it coming... I also have some waco ideas... cheers Walter.

5aa70dffdd3f0_trendfollowingcoment.thumb.png.e674736776678d59ecb0393b7bc40bd3.png

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What has powerfully called my attention on this last version Pyenner (and I would suggest numbering the versions from here on )

 

is the responsiveness of this black line when it starts to move in a direction after being horizontal for some time... it somehow leads (not always) quite a bit on the move...

 

Numbering- yes, its chaos city here, you probably noticed :helloooo:

 

Responsiveness- yes, I'm surprised you noticed that.

Good eyes Walter.

 

You see Igorad kinda cheated a bit on one stage maybe.

But what he got may have been better that what Bemac was using.

So maybe Igorad went with what worked best instead of copying Bemac 100%.

Or maybe he ran into the same problem I had, MT4's ema function crashes indicators, I wasted 2 days on that #@$* incompetence arggggh.

 

Anyway, yes we have some options here, ways to optimize the shoulder at the exit from the flat bit into the trending bit and how closely it sticks to a trending price.

It needs more time to explore it....

Glad you see the importance of it.

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Let me see if I get this straight... here we have three vma "base lines" with diferent inputs plotted on this 1 min chart... could you tell me what inputs each one have ?

 

 

It is clear that the three lines are having diferent rolls and they all get combined into one particular trend trade...

 

 

Ok you got it right but you are also a step ahead.

Will do the first step here then come back to the second step.

They do overlap yes...

 

The first question is only about how close you want the black line on your VMA indicator to be to a trending price.

 

I tried to show you how it can be so close it gets really mixed in with the price and so far away that it is real smooth.

 

The close one shows detail, but is that what you want to see?

Or is it better to have a smoother line that shows trend, but ignores the detail?

 

I don't know which is best yet.

I am saying you can chose to have your black base line following either a detailed path like yellow, or a smoother "trendy" path like either blue or magenta.

 

It is something that can be chosen, so think about which ONE of the THREE lines would be best as your black line when there is a trend.

 

It wasn't the best picture. I have seen sometimes when comparing VT to Igorad that sometimes one had a smoother line up between ladder steps, while the other had more wiggles in it, like mini steps on the way up.

So do you want mini steps or smooth?

I don't have an opinion yet.... would like to hear others.

 

---------------------------

 

OK, now the second part IS about having multiple VMA lines on a 1 min chart.

But that needs to be discussed on its own and it has more to do with the flat bit and the shoulders going into or out of the flat bit.

I did post a picture on the other thread that introduced that line of thinking.

I want to take it a lot further because it has possibilities.

 

One possiblity is that, in addition to your black line which is flat, you can also have a few more lines, maybe one that works a bit faster so it doesn't stay so flat but it may give you an early warning before your black base line turns up or down into a new trend. That may not be keeping it simple, but it might still be handy.

 

---------------

 

A third possibilty is replacing the fantail we have now with a fantail of VMA lines. Now there is one scenario where this might give you an exit price guide when trading a recovery. Its too many things to think about, they need to be split up and developed. I suspect a VMA fantail may be more useful than the fantail we have now. Scalping the swings either side of the flat line may also come into it. Dude, it gets all mixed up, overload, meltdown, kablooowweee :helloooo:

One at a time, keep it simple, argh, I should be so lucky :crap:

Pass me a banana someone please...

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I use vma this morning to detect bounceof resistance namely the channel (ala SRDC 2 method) Flattening out of vma on 15 min chart was my trigger to initiate possible entry.http://www.megaupload.com/?d=7AYF9QGS. Dropped down to 5 min to observe price action. Waited for 21 sma our trendsetter ( white ma) to cross vma and then enter on the close of penetrating candle. Exited trade when 21 sma crossed over vma horizontal. .http://www.megaupload.com/?d=KTMMNK92. Thx again walter and pyenner.

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One possible advantage of using VMA lines for a fantail.

 

The slowest line sometimes (recovery) gives an estimate of what your exit price might be.

 

In this case magenta is the slowest line and since it gives the longest flat line during a recovery, then you have a nice fixed estimate of where your trade might end up going.

 

Recycled another pix.

Try to see the general idea, when the fantail diverges, all the lines will eventually converge again. In the case of a recovery, the faster lines "chase after" the slowest line, so that is where they will likely meet.

Magenta is sometimes a guide to exit price.

PeriodRainbow2.thumb.PNG.45c47961ff16ae051b7ec7b5a362bedd.PNG

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Change gears again.

 

Currently the black line on a 1 min chart gives an entry signal when it starts to curve into a new trend.

 

It is possible to add in a slightly faster line and use that as an early warning of an emerging trend.

 

Again it is a recycled pix, not the best for the job but maybe enough to see the direction....

PeriodRainbow3.thumb.PNG.7026136719cd015757378d2b9761df31.PNG

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Change gears again

 

If you can put the 5min base line onto a 1 min chart.

Maybe you no longer need the 5min chart.

You can do it all off a 1min chart or perhaps have two 1min charts, one zoomed on for entry/exit and the other zoomed out for the longer perspective.

 

I suppose that will need another pix, but it is kinda all there in the pictures above, if you delve into it?

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Ok you got it right but you are also a step ahead.

Will do the first step here then come back to the second step.

They do overlap yes...

 

The first question is only about how close you want the black line on your VMA indicator to be to a trending price.

 

I tried to show you how it can be so close it gets really mixed in with the price and so far away that it is real smooth.

 

The close one shows detail, but is that what you want to see?

Or is it better to have a smoother line that shows trend, but ignores the detail?

 

I don't know which is best yet.

I am saying you can chose to have your black base line following either a detailed path like yellow, or a smoother "trendy" path like either blue or magenta.

 

It is something that can be chosen, so think about which ONE of the THREE lines would be best as your black line when there is a trend.

 

It wasn't the best picture. I have seen sometimes when comparing VT to Igorad that sometimes one had a smoother line up between ladder steps, while the other had more wiggles in it, like mini steps on the way up.

So do you want mini steps or smooth?

I don't have an opinion yet.... would like to hear others.

 

---------------------------

 

OK, now the second part IS about having multiple VMA lines on a 1 min chart.

But that needs to be discussed on its own and it has more to do with the flat bit and the shoulders going into or out of the flat bit.

I did post a picture on the other thread that introduced that line of thinking.

I want to take it a lot further because it has possibilities.

 

One possiblity is that, in addition to your black line which is flat, you can also have a few more lines, maybe one that works a bit faster so it doesn't stay so flat but it may give you an early warning before your black base line turns up or down into a new trend. That may not be keeping it simple, but it might still be handy.

 

---------------

 

A third possibilty is replacing the fantail we have now with a fantail of VMA lines. Now there is one scenario where this might give you an exit price guide when trading a recovery. Its too many things to think about, they need to be split up and developed. I suspect a VMA fantail may be more useful than the fantail we have now. Scalping the swings either side of the flat line may also come into it. Dude, it gets all mixed up, overload, meltdown, kablooowweee :helloooo:

One at a time, keep it simple, argh, I should be so lucky :crap:

Pass me a banana someone please...

 

 

jejejejej SUPERB POST Pyenner... you are a man after my heart... I also do have this type of brainstorms myself ¡¡¡ awesome ¡¡

 

I think we have several paralel topics to aboard as you described above...

 

let me see if I am in sync here...

 

FIRST TOPIC :

 

the black line directional movement (could we call it "laddering" ? ) with also the aid of a smaller "turbo vma" telling us some hints of what the blackline will do in front... this could be used for "timing" purposes and the edge relies on the horizontal effect plus the incredible responsivnes on the Cycle/trending stage shift from the vma... so that duo (black line and its turbo) are a complete subject to research on..

 

SECOND TOPIC :

 

A Rainbow of base lines ¡¡¡ :stick out tongue::stick out tongue::stick out tongue::shocked::stick out tongue::shocked::thumbs up::thumbs up: that is a Terrific topic... I cant say it will outperform our rainbow... but base lines as you mentioned before are doing a "drummond effect" on taking multiple time frames into one chart... what cautivates me on this idea is that the horizontal effect from higher time frames could be plotted on just one time frame and if we take the "turbo" reading from smaller to bigger lines we could have "anticipations" of laddering readings in that particular new rainbow...

 

so this could be a complete different topic that gradually could merge with the first one.. I like the color of this research... it truly aims to put VMA on steroids...

 

about simplicity, when original ideas come in there is not a simple plot.... ellaboration at the end of the process takes care of simplifying the last product.. so dont feel intimidated by apparent non simplicity...

 

keep the ideas flowing ¡¡ I like this one cheers Walter.

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I use vma this morning to detect bounceof resistance namely the channel (ala SRDC 2 method) Flattening out of vma on 15 min chart was my trigger to initiate possible entry.http://www.megaupload.com/?d=7AYF9QGS. Dropped down to 5 min to observe price action. Waited for 21 sma our trendsetter ( white ma) to cross vma and then enter on the close of penetrating candle. Exited trade when 21 sma crossed over vma horizontal. .http://www.megaupload.com/?d=KTMMNK92. Thx again walter and pyenner.

 

 

Island... I am not able to download your charts... you can upload them here at TL this thread tells you how to do so http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/how-to-post-a-chart-properly-805.html If you can re-post this ones, I will apreciate... cheers Walter.

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I am playing, just playing... we are authorized to do so here.... look at this chart... aud/usd 1 min with fantailvma1 inputs 1-128-64-0-1 and applied to it a bollinger band 20-3 of previos indicators data.... hmmm

laddering.thumb.png.9114021546ed151ecccde371cd82147e.png

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Gee Walter

 

I'm glad you can see the same stuff I can see in that indicator.

While my understanding is vague, it is difficult to explain what I only partly see.

 

Yes the turbo bit would be an aid to experienced traders but an unreliable confusing thing for beginners. There is no substitute for market experience.

 

About a week back I had some "inspiration" about scalping but it seems to have got lost on me again. Maybe it will come back, maybe I have gone past it. It is good that we can speak the same language and see what the other sees.

 

I am seeing a lot of icons these days too.

Communication is a powerful tool.

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Gee Walter

 

I'm glad you can see the same stuff I can see in that indicator.

While my understanding is vague, it is difficult to explain what I only partly see.

 

Yes the turbo bit would be an aid to experienced traders but an unreliable confusing thing for beginners. There is no substitute for market experience.

 

About a week back I had some "inspiration" about scalping but it seems to have got lost on me again. Maybe it will come back, maybe I have gone past it. It is good that we can speak the same language and see what the other sees.

 

I am seeing a lot of icons these days too.

Communication is a powerful tool.

 

Certainly Pyenner the EDGE on this indicator is the "horizontal efect" come and go... when it starts as when it finishes... it tells us a shift of cycle to trending condition...

 

 

I spend years trying to find an indicator that could tell me without lagging that information and you know what vualà ¡¡¡ :thumbs up:... 12 years later we got it ¡¡ and Bemac, Igorad and yourself Pyenner got a great credit on it ¡¡... cheers Walter.

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Yes

Bollinger band is a bit like the way a "turbo vma" line would converge and diverge from the main base line. It would mostly run between the price line and the smoother base line curve.

And yes again, if you have a turbo line for the purpose of warning you which way the trend will emerge from a flat line, then it will also be there up the trend, showing more mini steps and ladders while the main line follows a smoother path and only bends into the bigger flats, ignores the mini flats.

 

One idea sort of leads you into more ideas, unexpected ones.

 

I'm sorry I didn't answer your earlier question about what times I was using in that chart with 3 lines close to an up trend. I dont remember. The fastest line was probably a bit faster than a normal 1 min base line and the other two a little slower.

Sorry to be vague, too soon to get getting exact.

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For example... one simple "Trend definition" could be using a larger base vma line with inputs 1-256-128-0-1 (cyan line) and saying :

 

red > cyan = up trend

 

red < cyan = down trend

 

so that could give trend definition...

 

then timing could be managed with ladderings of the red with the spreading of its bollinger... I am thinking in loud voice... totally just ideas... cheers Walter.

5aa70e000b89a_ladderingintrend1.thumb.png.672c2af62757af7e3ded492a3ce6d574.png

5aa70e00112af_ladderingintrend2.thumb.png.5f3263418c5fe814e2a2f82058cd37fa.png

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Yes

 

You have got the picture about lines that are near to a normal 1 min base line. Say like close in 3/4 min turbo, 1min normal and 3 min line further out still.

 

On top of that, change into 5th gear, overdrive.

Zoom out your 1 min chart for the long range view.

 

Because a 16 min base line is way outside the spread of your current 1 min fantail. Repost this pix.

 

On this, the orange line runs about where the outside magenta edge of your 1 min fantail might be.

But the orange line would also be about where your 5 min base line would be if you could see it on the same chart.

 

Now say the red line is about where the outside magenta line of the 5 min fantail would be.

 

OK now look at where that Magenta line is, way outside, its a base line from a 16 minute chart, long range trading stuff. Way past 5 min stuff.

 

Look at the way the faster lines weave about the slowest magenta line.

 

Sometimes the price breaks out, and then there is no way of predicting how far it will go. When that happens, its magenta that has to catch up to all the faster lines. But on the occasions when the price turns back inwards towards the slowest magenta line, then magenta gives you a target price for the eventual meeting of all those lines.

 

You will see in there also an icon trade which breaks my "rule" about trading the outswing back towards the magenta "centre" line.

 

There is a trading path there that I can see but can't really explain.

 

I can't promise to deliver on this stuff, it is just stuff that might go somewhere, might go nowhere. Vague ideas.

PeriodRainbow2.thumb.PNG.988e8dac5e6c94af83956bcef7e297f6.PNG

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Vague ideas... no problem with that... all great inventions where originally vague ideas

 

let me see Pyenner what your first vague idea its all about... you have a very strong midline (magenta line ) it is a line in the sand... we could say that she represents some kind of center of all action and from that line we could expect centrifugal or centripetal action...

 

In this idea you are presenting a centripetal action (refreshing) to the magenta line.. and you are using the smaller vmas to time entries with some laddering... would this be the idea ? cheers Walter.

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Walter and PYenner...Great posts...very interesting and helpful information. Thanks for sharing this. Walter please keep the videos coming, your explainations help clear up many things. Somehow hearing it makes it much clearer for me than reading it (at least for me!). I wonder if there is a way to post the latest revisions of the fantail_vma for mt4 with a rev. number and some sort of description. I would like to begin testing with a demo account but am a little confused as to which version to try.

 

...one last thing...PYenner...would you mind giving us a phonetical pronunciation of your screen name. Is it "pie"-ner or "P" - Yenner...:\ no biggie...just curious. Thanks to both of you for all your hard work on this project...Armand

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The "horizontal effect" is the true backbone of the chimps epiphany...

 

without horizontal efect (HE) we are just presenting another regular TA method... but with the HE we are talking about something diferent, something with edge, something that opens to new research dimensions...

 

The HE tells us a lot of things... it tells us the shift of condition between cycle and trending..

 

Now when the HE finishes and the line starts to travel in one particular direction it is telling us that we may have some posible timing readings with this feature... I call that "Laddering"... you are having a ladder literally and its telling you, we may travel in that direction...

 

let me explain a little on next post with a video... cheers Walter.

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Walter and PYenner...Great posts...very interesting and helpful information. Thanks for sharing this. Walter please keep the videos coming, your explainations help clear up many things. Somehow hearing it makes it much clearer for me than reading it (at least for me!). I wonder if there is a way to post the latest revisions of the fantail_vma for mt4 with a rev. number and some sort of description. I would like to begin testing with a demo account but am a little confused as to which version to try.

 

...one last thing...PYenner...would you mind giving us a phonetical pronunciation of your screen name. Is it "pie"-ner or "P" - Yenner...:\ no biggie...just curious. Thanks to both of you for all your hard work on this project...Armand

 

Hi Armand

 

I mostly trade GBPJPY, Pound Yen to me, so the tag was Pee Yen er.

The real name is Bruce but I'm not Scottish either...:confused:

Not a biggie.

 

Yes, I risk confusing people with the vagueness of thoughts that are still forming and I probably should do a video for some of the stuff, but I'm no rock star or politician argh.

 

I'm kind of in limbo over which step to take next because the view ahead keeps shifting, and I'm also quite slow at programming.

 

Stay tuned, I hope I will get more focus.

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    • USDJPY PRICE OUTFLOW IS DRAWN BY SELLERS BACK TO 114.840   USDJPY Price Analysis – November 25 USDJPY price outflow is being held back as a consequence of bears causing opposition to the market influence. The price structure of the market strives to maintain an uptrend configuration under a bullish influence. However, the sellers are causing some resistance in the market, which is causing a hold in the market configuration. Because of this conflict in the market, the outflow of the bulls in the market will be held back to the 114.840 critical level. USDJPY Critical Levels Resistance Levels: 114.840, 112.790 Support Levels: 110.800, 109.100 USDJPY Long Term Trend: Bullish The bullish outflow price structure initially began with the expansive breadth of consolidation. The market was birthed after a strong price expansion before the bullish uprise. The price undulated between the breadth of the 110.800 and 109.100 significant price levels. As a result of this accumulation, the price was then pushed out to higher levels. With the continuation of the market expansion, buyers outflow upward, with the bulls taking hold of the market. Furthermore, price continues to experience more outflows as several structural levels were broken. When USDJPY eventually gets to the 112.790 level, the price resumes its accumulation phase. The market encountered a short phase of expansion before resuming bullish persistence. The price finally breaks through the 114.840 significant level and we expect a withdrawal back to this price level before bullish engagement. The Tensile Strength indicator shows the resilience of the market influence as the market is set to resume its bullish leverage after sellers retreat. USDJPY Short Term Trend: Bearish The 4-hour chart of USDJPY shows the price configuration riding upward following a strong force that broke through the 114.840 critical level. The price is now set in a retreat motion as the price is seen to be pulling away to the 114.840 price level. The Moving Average Convergence and Divergence indicator shows the market’s prevalent direction as the price is set on a pullback course to the 114.840 critical level before bullish outflow.   Source: https://learn2.trade
    • EURJPY DEPRECIATES TO LOWS NEAR 128.00 FOLLOWING COVID RESURGENCE   EURJPY Price Analysis – November 26 EURJPY pair fell for the third session in a row on Friday, depreciating to the area of recent lows in the 128.00 range. As the new strain of COVID weighs heavily on investors’ sentiment, strong buying interest in the Japanese yen puts EURJPY under added pressure in the sub-129.00 levels. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 130.50, 130.00, 129.61 Support Levels: 127.00, 126.50, 126.00 EURJPY Long term Trend: Ranging On Friday, the EURJPY opened higher at 129.31 and moved lower to 127.79 intraday lows losing almost 1%. The pair plunged, as bears emerged and traders focused on levels below 128.00. To investigate the bearish scenario, a decisive fall below 128.00 must be established. The pair may continue to fall into the next session, with bearish traders targeting the 127.00 area as a possible objective. As long as the 128.00 support level holds and the price is sustained above, more gains may be expected. A strong breakout of 128.50, on the other hand, would confirm that the rebound from 127.79 low has come to stay, bringing this low back into focus as a new bottom. EURJPY Short term Trend: Bearish The EURJPY is still trading bearishly from its October high of 133.47 on the 4-hour charts, and the intraday bias is still to the downside. If the resistance at 128.50 holds, a further drop is likely. A decisive rebound past 128.50, on the other hand, will consolidate on the entire rebound from 127.79 low level. The mid-term support turned resistance level of 130.00 will be the next level of contention. A break of revised support around the 128.00, on the other hand, might reverse the rebound and broaden the down leg from 130.00 with a new phase of the drop towards the mid 127.00 in the coming session.   Source: https://learn2.trade
    • Date : 25th November 2021. Market Update – November 25 – Solid US data lifts USD, Stocks, & Yields. USD (USDIndex 96.70) holds on at 16-mth highs; Strong set of US data yesterday GDP (2.1%) up a tick but missed by a tick, Claims (199k) at 52-yr low, PCE (0.4% m/m & 4.1% y/y), in-line & largest since Jan.1991, along with a big beat (5.9%) for GDP Price index, Durable Goods (0.5%) in-line, Personal Spending (1.3%) a big beat, Personal Income (0.5%) a beat, Trade balance a big beat (14.6%) on strong Exports, Inventories (-2.2%) a big miss, but shows demand is strong. Consumer Sentiment a beat and New Home Sales flat (745K) and missed. Stocks & Yields pushed higher, Oil held onto gains and Gold tested 3-week lows.   The FOMC Minutes showed (1) there could be a faster taper than the $15bn/mth currently planned, (2) Inflation could indeed be “persistent” (3) Clear division over 2022/23 rate hike cycle, Doves hold sway for now. US Yields 10yr trades at 1.644%, down from yesterday’s 1.694% high. Equities – Gains into the Holiday USA500 +10.76 (0.23%) at 4701 – USA500.F trades higher at 4713. USOil – peaked at $78.53 Inventories +1.0 vs -1.7 weakened prices – now at $77.65 Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1216, having broken 1.1200, USDJPY now 115.36, from 115.50 & Cable back to 1.3350 from 1.3315 yesterday. Overnight – JPY PPI (1.0%) hit a 10-yr high, German GDP and consumer confidence both missed (1.7% vs 1.8% and -1.6% vs -1.0%) respectively. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 16 ticks, while US futures are slightly in the red. Bunds already outperformed yesterday, as EZ spreads widened in the wake of hawkish leaning ECB comments & confirmation that German finance ministry will go to the liberal FDP, which likely means more resistance to debt mutualisation across the EZ & more pressure on ECB to limit asset purchases. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.4% & 0.3% respectively & US futures are posting gains of 0.3-0.4%, suggesting markets are coping quite well with the prospect of less accommodative policies. Indeed, it seems to an extent that they welcome the CB’s acknowledgement that inflation risks could be less temporary than previously thought. Today – ECB Minutes, ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde and BOE’s Bailey Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (0.20%) The rally from Tuesday’s low under 90.00 has been sustained with 91.25 being tested earlier today. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising & over 0 line, RSI 61, H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.707. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 24th November 2021. Market Update – November 24 – USD & Yields Higher, Stocks Mixed, Oil Recovers. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USD (USDIndex 96.50) holds on at highs; EM currencies under particular pressure. (TRY lost 15% after Erdogan refused a rate rise). RBNZ raised rates but NZD fell (like the last time they raised rates!) JPY Inflation 2 ticks better than expected. USDJPY at January 2017 levels around 115.00. PMI data better across the globe, Stocks mixed in US & Asia, Yields bid, Oil recovered significantly and Gold pressured by yields. Biden invites Taiwan to its “Summit for Democracy”, WHO talks of additional 700k Covid deaths across Europe (Slovakia latest to talk lockdowns). US Yields 10yr trades at 1.667%, down from yesterday’s 1.684% high. Equities Mixed. Musk sold more stock, Banks & Oil majors lead. USA500 +7.76 (0.17%) at 4690 – USA500.F trades lower at 4684. USOil – rallied over 3% to $78.20 highs despite global strategic reserves being sold to cool prices. Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1245, USDJPY over 115.23, earlier now at 114.88 & Cable back to 1.3375. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 26 ticks, US futures also broadly higher. RBNZ delivered expected rate hike & markets seem to be scaling back fears of escalating inflation as even dovish leaning BoE & ECB members highlight risk of second round effects. ECB VP Guindos highlighted overnight that the drivers of inflation are becoming more structural, which adds to signals that the CB is finally ready to start reining in stimulus. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently up 0.3% & 0.2% respectively. Today – Big data day ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend. – German Ifo, US Weekly Claims GDP, PCE, Durables, FOMC Mins. & ECB speak Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) RBNZ in-line but Dovish, sank from breach of 80.00 yesterday to 79.24, and 79.40 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & below 0 line, RSI 35 & weak, Stochs OS. H1 ATR 0.17, Daily ATR 0.70. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • EURUSD HOVERS NEAR MULTI-MONTH LOW, UNDER 1.1250 LEVEL   EURUSD Price Analysis – November 24 Throughout the session, the EURUSD pair remained on the losing side and was last seen moving with considerable losses around the 1.1250-36 level. The announcement that the White House has opted to reappoint incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a second term sparked the recent strong dip. The spot is trading at 1.1253 at the time of writing, down 0.25 percent on the day. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 1.1525, 1.1422, 1.1300 Support Levels: 1.1200, 1. 1150, 1.1100 EURUSD Long term Trend: Bearish EURUSD has sunk to fresh multi-day lows, as seen on the daily chart, after extending the recent breach beneath the moving averages 5 around the 1.1300 level. This exposes the possibility of a deeper pullback and a re-test of the psychological support around 1.1200. Under the 1.1200 level, the euro’s underlying bullish attitude is in jeopardy. Overall, the EURUSD stays bearish while trading under the major horizontal support turned resistance and significant level at 1.1422. A breakout of the 1.1300 level, on the other hand, would aim for the 1.1350 level on the way to the 1.1400 zones. The fall of the 1.1200 zones, in the alternative scenario, is viewed as a bearish continuation indicator. EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish The risk is weighted to the negative on the 4-hour chart, as the pair is developing below the firmly bearish 5 and 13 moving averages. Technical indicators have shifted to the downside, with negative levels. However, in the present scenario, the RSI has not yet reached oversold territory, allowing for more selling. On the upside, a break over the modest resistance level of 1.1300 might shift the intraday bias to neutral. On the downside, the 1.1200 zones provide initial support. The next important level of support is around the 1.1150 mark. If there are any more losses, the 1.1100 extension level of the low decline may be tested. Source: https://learn2.trade 
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