Wolfe

[elovemer 10]

just a little more

.................

...................

................

 

sugar almost there....

............

...........

...........

[waveslider 10]

yes that is a good one, sugar - almost picture perfect

[elovemer 10]

the interesting thing is ... people look at these as a sell signal at highs.

 

but once the downside target is reached.... it is often a massive buy signal ... for continuation of the larger time frame trend

 

except that one has to account for the time required for the pros to accumulate again

 

 

yes that is a good one, sugar - almost picture perfect

Edited April 16, 2011 by elovemer

[elovemer 10]

sugar could be there.... around 22

 

 

 

the interesting thing is ... people look at these as a sell signal at highs.

 

but once the downside target is reached.... it is often a massive buy signal ... for continuation of the larger time frame trend

 

except that one has to account for the time required for the pros to accumulate again

[elovemer 10]

sugar looking reversal ish

 

sugar could be there.... around 22

[phantom 16]

the interesting thing is ... people look at these as a sell signal at highs.

 

but once the downside target is reached.... it is often a massive buy signal ... for continuation of the larger time frame trend

 

except that one has to account for the time required for the pros to accumulate again

 

If your price zone is in the area of 24-25 for this example and this is a true up market, I would expect serious price rejection back into an upward and fast market; not much time for pros to accumulate under these circumstances.

If, on the other hand, the market does not reject price at the wave's #5 point, ie 24-25 region, and price is accepted, I would expect this market to continue on down for some time...

 

This, my friends, is just how the markets work.

 

Luv,

Phantom

[elovemer 10]

...........

............

...........

[elovemer 10]

price zone is 22

 

looking good

[waveslider 10]

I've been riding the nasdaq for this one... almost complete now.

 

If you read my early posts I like to have the 1 point starting at a 50% point of a move (not always though). This works best when there is high volatility

[elovemer 10]

that is not a wolfe wave

 

your point 1 should be outside action ... a new high ... not inside action

 

however it looks fine on the russell index

 

 

however on the russell ... the dowside target has already been hit

 

 

I've been riding the nasdaq for this one... almost complete now.

 

If you read my early posts I like to have the 1 point starting at a 50% point of a move (not always though). This works best when there is high volatility

[waveslider 10]

Can't believe how many times this argument has come up in this thread (which I started years ago). It goes to show how much of an art it is identifying this pattern.

 

Directly from the WW site here is a picture. Tell me if you think his example of point 1 is outside or inside price action elovemer, or does Bill Wolfe have the pattern wrong? If you have the manual you see plenty examples of the #1 point normally within price action.

 

I identify #1 usually at the 50% area of a previous wave because this is where the wave is inverting as volatility enters the market.

 

Point #2 is the point that needs to stick out of price action for a purpose - it is there to draw in the suckers who will be exiting on the 4-5 move. Once you understand this simple concept you begin to see the psychology of the pattern.

 

It actually doesn't matter where point 1 is, as long as there are sufficient suckers acting on point #2.

[elovemer 10]

ok.

according to your spy pattern, the target is almost hit.

 

as for myself, i rate outside action as being more reliable than inside action

... no matter what the pattern

 

Can't believe how many times this argument has come up in this thread (which I started years ago). It goes to show how much of an art it is identifying this pattern.

on point #2.

[elovemer 10]

corn

..........

...........

..........

[elovemer 10]

41.57 target on sugar

 

price zone is 22

 

looking good

[elovemer 10]

this target also puts sugar on a path to completing an even larger wolfe wave on the monthly chart

 

for a massive drop

 

 

 

41.57 target on sugar

[bubba 10]

noticed this a bit ago... made me think of this thread

[bobcollett 10]

Can't believe how many times this argument has come up in this thread (which I started years ago). It goes to show how much of an art it is identifying this pattern.

 

Directly from the WW site here is a picture. Tell me if you think his example of point 1 is outside or inside price action elovemer, or does Bill Wolfe have the pattern wrong? If you have the manual you see plenty examples of the #1 point normally within price action.

 

I identify #1 usually at the 50% area of a previous wave because this is where the wave is inverting as volatility enters the market.

 

Point #2 is the point that needs to stick out of price action for a purpose - it is there to draw in the suckers who will be exiting on the 4-5 move. Once you understand this simple concept you begin to see the psychology of the pattern.

 

It actually doesn't matter where point 1 is, as long as there are sufficient suckers acting on point #2.

 

Dear waveslider,

I have just discovered this thread.

I dont trade patterns, but I find your thread very interesting, and I will start reading from the beginning.And you have been patiently explaining all this for 4 years!!

Kind regards

bobc

[waveslider 10]

Bob-

If you would like to discuss more you can PM me.

I trade mechanical systems, but on a morning like today when my systems were telling me that a range day was expected, and I see a WW pattern set up, I will add a few for my personal account. They worked well this morning, but they don't always.

Most important in any situation is risk control, WW is no different. When it works it's beautiful, and it has been working a lot recently. (In the S&P - that's all I trade).

 

best..

[bobcollett 10]

Dear Waveslider

I finally found a valid wolfewave (I think)

But it looked like it could go both ways

1,2,3,4 or 7,1,2,3

I went short and made plenty

But I left some on the table .

The price hit the target and bounced back quit violently

Thank you

bobc

[waveslider 10]

Not an ideal pattern, but I would have but the 1 where you have a 2. Bearish pattern.

[bobcollett 10]

Not an ideal pattern, but I would have but the 1 where you have a 2. Bearish pattern.

 

Dear waveslider

YES ,that makes more sense. Is there a rule to help in the position of "1" ?

Still a bit confused

Kind regards

bobc

[waveslider 10]

Dear waveslider

YES ,that makes more sense. Is there a rule to help in the position of "1" ?

Still a bit confused

Kind regards

bobc

 

best way is to look for #2 point first. Look for a #2 that creates emotion, activates stops by hitting levels that haven't been hit for a while. Then track price action when that move fails.

[bobcollett 10]

Thanks waveslider

I can see you are quite dedicated , better adjective, passionate, about wolfewaves.

Its 9.30pm Friday. Bedtime.

I have a few more questions tomorrow.

Regards

bobc

[waveslider 10]

Bob-

 

Actually I very rarely trade them straight out, but I am aware of them as I know others are watching. Sometimes their failure creates an even better trade!

Love the mystery of market geometry though.

[bobcollett 10]

Dear waveslider

You answered my next question before it was asked

Point 2 must be a recent high. Now I can see why the pattern is weak!!And there are four points at the top. I was lucky. I actually traded a failed wolfe wave.

Now you mentioned trading a failed wolfewave.

Please have a another look at my chart.

Going long would not have reached the target. It failed

But it will have to retrace some before you decide it has failed

How would you decide that?

Kind regards

bobc