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Hi folks,

I will be posting my stock setups that I will be taking from 1:30p to 4p EST M-F. My trading is heavily influenced by Thalestrader, who has left a treasure trove of knowledge here at TL. My stock setups will target gapped stocks (S&P 500 constituents priced over $20) that consolidate and continue in the direction of the gap in the afternoon. Entries will include 123s and pullbacks to the 5 min 21 EMA. Please note I am currently on demo mode.

I believe the keys to success in trading are really just a few simple things:

  • Embracing the probabilistic mindset, which includes taking every valid setup regardless of how I feel about the outcome and not changing strategy based on recent results.
  • Cutting losers quick and letting winners run. 
  • Unconditional self love and acceptance. This is probably the most important thing and the ONLY secret there is. By being ok with making mistakes, being wrong, taking losers, giving self money, one can finally learn to trade without fear. This is probably where most people take the most time to learn (10 years for me).

Here we go. Blue line denotes entry, red line are my stops adjusted to as close to real time as possible. 

Today: -41c, +13c, +0

 

Best,

J

 

 

 

 

20190129 XRX.png

20190129 HOG.png

Edited by jfw215

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Today was the first full day I started with this method. I learned quite a bit. First, I realized that the criteria I had set for this batch of mechanical trades were too loose and is too subjective to emotional bias. After reviewing the charts, I realized it is much easier to mechanically test by buying intermediate consolidations above the MA followed by new highs. If I miss the initial entry, I can take a secondary entry if at least a box of 4 bars have formed (thank you Darvas). I will then use a volatility stop indicator for exits. Up to two trades per instrument per day. No trade if price is right below R for longs and S for shorts. I'm in the first stage of becoming a consistently profitable trader (as described in Mark Douglas' books). In this stage, I will focus on taking mechanical entries and exits to strengthen awareness in probabilistic mindset. 

Second, I'm surprised looking at the charts that buying new highs actually work on average. Every new high break of the intermediate consolidation gave a nice running start. yet during the actual breakout, my mind was filled with doubt. Fascinating mind. By using volatility stop, I can make this exercise easier for me. The goal is not to focus on making money but focus on mastering the skills of execution without hindrance of memory based mental bias, also known as hope and fear. 

Third, I'm surprised that no shorts triggered today. Looking at the NQ, I can see it was all day up. It's also fascinating how NQ danced around the S/R lines I had drew in from the previous days. I already miss watching NQ but I'm going to stay focused on my stock strategy. 

Fourth, in the afternoon, when NQ rocketed, all of my Nasdaq stock trades made large moves at the same time. Amazon, Apple, ADP. Going forward I'll make sure not to have more than 2 units of risk exposure on at the same time. So only take a new trade after stop have moved up for protection.

Fifth, my discretionary stop movement can really be improved. I'm going to use volatility based stops for now because I'm going to focus on taking entries for now. The actual trading results (in units of risk based on stop size) today would be -.2, -1, -.5, -.5, +1.1, 0, 0, 0 for a total net of -1.1R. 

Tomorrow is going to be great day. I'm looking forward to testing this system and develop consistency in being a successful trader.

Best,

J

 

20190130 AAPL.PNG

20190130 ADP.PNG

20190130 AMZN.PNG

20190130 BA.PNG

20190130 HP.PNG

20190130 KLAC.PNG

20190130 RCL.PNG

20190130 NQ.png

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Today was the first day on the revised mechanical strategy. At one point I had 7 orders in the books ready to go and market ended up triggering zero trades. I was very calm for most of the part of the session and did not stray from my trading plan. I'm extremely proud of my execution of my trading plan today even though no trades executed. Happy Trading!

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I was not well prepared today. I felt like I was too distracted with looking at longer term swing strategy at the same time as trading intraday. Ended up having 1 entry on AMZN. There were about 3 other trades that netted in small losses but were not taken. 

20190201 AMZN 5min Post.PNG

20190201 CE 5min Post.PNG

20190201 PWR 5min.PNG

20190201 VLO 5min.PNG

Edited by jfw215

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Just 1 entry today, Saw the previous day's R flip to S, with room from the gap to run up. Waited 3 mins, price was stalling few pennies below entry. Took me myself out of the market. Good trade.

 

20190204 GD 1min Post.PNG

20190204 GD 5min Pre.PNG

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I woke up for the opening today and learned quite a bit. The strongest stocks at the open tend to get the most attention and therefore give you a nice pop. I didn't trade them but watched. I ended up taking 5 trades. 4 scratches and 1 went all the way up all day. I can see why this method is really tough on the normal psyche. You have more losses than gains on average and you gotta let the winners run. The result was actually fantastic. 

20190205 AKAM 5min.PNG

20190205 BA 5min.PNG

20190205 BKNG 5min.PNG

20190205 NFLX 5min.PNG

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First day back from Fiji. 2 small losses today. Nothing much I could have done differently. Good trades, good exits. There was a second trade on ANET (blue line). I skipped that trade by mistake. At the time of entry, I thought it would not work because the first one didn't work. That is a classic prediction error. I cannot know what will happen next. The goal is not to predict but to execute properly. 

20190215 ANET.PNG

20190215 MCO.PNG

Edited by jfw215

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1 trade today. +137bps. I missed another big runner by 10 seconds. It's all good. posting both charts. I'm glad to be back. I do notice I made a mental error on my exit. I was focusing on how the last 2 trades I had were small losses, which made me want to tighten my stop on this trade just a tad too soon. I then said oh its been 30mins since open so I can tighten my stop now. That is me trying to make up a rule on the spot. Next time this comes to mind, I will actively disconnect the two. Overall, I am feeling pretty good about it. I'm excited that I'm near complete of collecting sample of 20 trades for the first batch. 

 

20190219 FCX 5min.PNG

20190219 ROKU 5min.PNG

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    •   Date : 21st February 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st February 2019.



      FX News Today Asian equities initially rallied after Fed minutes promised patience on further policy action but most have moved down from earlier highs. Hopes that the US and China are nearing a deal on trade have risen after an unnamed source cited by Reuters said the two sides have started to outline commitments in principle in what is described as the most significant progress yet. The JPY225 closed with a gain of just 0.15%, while the Topix was unchanged from yesterday. The Hang Seng is up 0.03% and mainland China indices are also little changed. The AUS200 outperformed and rallied 0.70%, after better than expected jobs data. US futures are stronger after Reuters reports outlined progress in US-Sino trade talks and European futures are also moving higher. The March WTI futures are trading at USD 57.33 per barrel. Charts of the Day


      Main Macro Events Today EU PMIs – EU Manufacturing PMI is expected to have declined to 50.3 in February, compared to 50.5 last month, dangerously close to the 50 threshold. Services PMI is expected to have increased to 51.4, compared to 51.2 in January, hence pushing the overall Composite PMI higher to 51.1, compared to 51.0 in the previous month. Philly Fed Index – The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to have declined to 14, compared to 17 in January, still registering a positive effect. Durable Goods – Durable goods are expected to come out registering positive growth for December, compared to negative for November. US PMIs – Manufacturing is expected to have declined in the US, similar to the EU, reaching 54.7 compared to 54.9 last month, while Services are expected to have slightly grown to 54.3 compared to 54.2 in January. Existing Home Sales – Home Sales are expected to have remained at more or less the same levels, at 5M, compared to 4.99M last month. CB Leading Index – The Conference Board Index is expected to have shown a 0.1% m/m increase in January, compared to the 0.1% m/m contraction in December. Support and Resistance
       
      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Andria Pichidi
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • hello everyone, lets all have a good 2019  best of luck to all.a good start so far. and hoping for more good news in the future
    • Ethereum (ETH) Daily Price Forecast – February 20 ETH/USD Medium-term Trend: Bullish ·         Resistance Levels: $240, $250, $260 ·         Support Levels: $140, $130, $120 Yesterday, February 19, the price of Ethereum was in a bullish trend. The crypto’s price was trading at $151.68 when the crypto was resisted. The crypto was resisted at the $150 price level and the price fell to the support of the 12-day EMA. The bullish trend has been terminated but the ETH price is trading at  $145.76 as at the time of writing. On the upside, the crypto’s price will rise if crypto’s price is sustained above the EMAs while the bulls break the $150 price level. Meanwhile, the MACD line and the signal line are above the zero line which indicates a buy signal. Also, the crypto’s price is above the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA which indicates that price is likely to rise. ETH/USD Short-term Trend: Bullish On the 1-hour chart, the crypto's price is in a bullish trend zone. The previous bullish trend has been terminated as price made a downward fall. The ETH price has fallen to the support of the $140 price level and the bulls are expected to defend the support level. On the downside, if the bears break the $140 price level, the crypto will further depreciate.
      Meanwhile, the MACD line and the signal are above the zero line which indicates a buy signal. Also, the crypto’s price is below the EMAs which indicate that price is likely to fall.     The views and opinions expressed here do not reflect that of BitcoinExchangeGuide.com and do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research.                                                                                                                 Top of Form                             Source: www.bitcoinexchangeguide.com
    •   Date : 20th February 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th February 2019.



      FX News Today Bund yields lower in opening trade, Equity markets mostly higher in Asia. Stock markets in Asia remained underpinned by hopes of a US-Sino trade deal. Wall Street closed higher, helped by positive earnings at Walmart Inc. Fresh. President Trump meanwhile suggested that March 1 tariff deadline is not cast in stone, so there is hope that further tariffs can be avoided. Japan’s exports fell 8.4% in January, while imports declined 0.6% y/y. The contraction in exports seems consistent with escalating concern that Japan’s export sector will be dented this year by global trade frictions and the slowing in China’s economy. The Yuan lifted after a Bloomberg report saying the US was looking for a pledge from China that it will not devalue its yuan currency as part of the trade deal. USDJPY has climbed to 110.91 from 110.60, amid cautious risk-on theme WTI crude edged out fresh 3-month high of $56.77. Charts of the Day


      Main Macro Events Today Juncker and May meet for another round of crunch talks in Brussels today. EU Consumer Confidence – The overall Eurozone number Consumer Price Index (M/M) on course to be confirmed at 1.4% y/y. FOMC minutes – The focus turns on the FOMC minutes to the January 29, 30 policy meeting as we look to glean more information on the Fed’s pivot to a more dovish point of view, even as rates were left unchanged. We did get a glimpse from Chairman Powell’s press conference, where he noted tighter financial conditions, along with tame inflation. And he said the onus is on price pressures to force a rate move. Australian labour data – The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.0%. Support and Resistance

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Andria Pichidi
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Forex trading is a genuine business and in that capacity ought to be moved toward like one. Obviously there are a chosen few traders who begun without a FX training and have turned out to be fruitful .
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