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Hi folks,

I will be posting my stock setups that I will be taking from 1:30p to 4p EST M-F. My trading is heavily influenced by Thalestrader, who has left a treasure trove of knowledge here at TL. My stock setups will target gapped stocks (S&P 500 constituents priced over $20) that consolidate and continue in the direction of the gap in the afternoon. Entries will include 123s and pullbacks to the 5 min 21 EMA. Please note I am currently on demo mode.

I believe the keys to success in trading are really just a few simple things:

  • Embracing the probabilistic mindset, which includes taking every valid setup regardless of how I feel about the outcome and not changing strategy based on recent results.
  • Cutting losers quick and letting winners run. 
  • Unconditional self love and acceptance. This is probably the most important thing and the ONLY secret there is. By being ok with making mistakes, being wrong, taking losers, giving self money, one can finally learn to trade without fear. This is probably where most people take the most time to learn (10 years for me).

Here we go. Blue line denotes entry, red line are my stops adjusted to as close to real time as possible. 

Today: -41c, +13c, +0

 

Best,

J

 

 

 

 

20190129 XRX.png

20190129 HOG.png

Edited by jfw215

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Today was the first full day I started with this method. I learned quite a bit. First, I realized that the criteria I had set for this batch of mechanical trades were too loose and is too subjective to emotional bias. After reviewing the charts, I realized it is much easier to mechanically test by buying intermediate consolidations above the MA followed by new highs. If I miss the initial entry, I can take a secondary entry if at least a box of 4 bars have formed (thank you Darvas). I will then use a volatility stop indicator for exits. Up to two trades per instrument per day. No trade if price is right below R for longs and S for shorts. I'm in the first stage of becoming a consistently profitable trader (as described in Mark Douglas' books). In this stage, I will focus on taking mechanical entries and exits to strengthen awareness in probabilistic mindset. 

Second, I'm surprised looking at the charts that buying new highs actually work on average. Every new high break of the intermediate consolidation gave a nice running start. yet during the actual breakout, my mind was filled with doubt. Fascinating mind. By using volatility stop, I can make this exercise easier for me. The goal is not to focus on making money but focus on mastering the skills of execution without hindrance of memory based mental bias, also known as hope and fear. 

Third, I'm surprised that no shorts triggered today. Looking at the NQ, I can see it was all day up. It's also fascinating how NQ danced around the S/R lines I had drew in from the previous days. I already miss watching NQ but I'm going to stay focused on my stock strategy. 

Fourth, in the afternoon, when NQ rocketed, all of my Nasdaq stock trades made large moves at the same time. Amazon, Apple, ADP. Going forward I'll make sure not to have more than 2 units of risk exposure on at the same time. So only take a new trade after stop have moved up for protection.

Fifth, my discretionary stop movement can really be improved. I'm going to use volatility based stops for now because I'm going to focus on taking entries for now. The actual trading results (in units of risk based on stop size) today would be -.2, -1, -.5, -.5, +1.1, 0, 0, 0 for a total net of -1.1R. 

Tomorrow is going to be great day. I'm looking forward to testing this system and develop consistency in being a successful trader.

Best,

J

 

20190130 AAPL.PNG

20190130 ADP.PNG

20190130 AMZN.PNG

20190130 BA.PNG

20190130 HP.PNG

20190130 KLAC.PNG

20190130 RCL.PNG

20190130 NQ.png

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Today was the first day on the revised mechanical strategy. At one point I had 7 orders in the books ready to go and market ended up triggering zero trades. I was very calm for most of the part of the session and did not stray from my trading plan. I'm extremely proud of my execution of my trading plan today even though no trades executed. Happy Trading!

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I was not well prepared today. I felt like I was too distracted with looking at longer term swing strategy at the same time as trading intraday. Ended up having 1 entry on AMZN. There were about 3 other trades that netted in small losses but were not taken. 

20190201 AMZN 5min Post.PNG

20190201 CE 5min Post.PNG

20190201 PWR 5min.PNG

20190201 VLO 5min.PNG

Edited by jfw215

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Just 1 entry today, Saw the previous day's R flip to S, with room from the gap to run up. Waited 3 mins, price was stalling few pennies below entry. Took me myself out of the market. Good trade.

 

20190204 GD 1min Post.PNG

20190204 GD 5min Pre.PNG

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I woke up for the opening today and learned quite a bit. The strongest stocks at the open tend to get the most attention and therefore give you a nice pop. I didn't trade them but watched. I ended up taking 5 trades. 4 scratches and 1 went all the way up all day. I can see why this method is really tough on the normal psyche. You have more losses than gains on average and you gotta let the winners run. The result was actually fantastic. 

20190205 AKAM 5min.PNG

20190205 BA 5min.PNG

20190205 BKNG 5min.PNG

20190205 NFLX 5min.PNG

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First day back from Fiji. 2 small losses today. Nothing much I could have done differently. Good trades, good exits. There was a second trade on ANET (blue line). I skipped that trade by mistake. At the time of entry, I thought it would not work because the first one didn't work. That is a classic prediction error. I cannot know what will happen next. The goal is not to predict but to execute properly. 

20190215 ANET.PNG

20190215 MCO.PNG

Edited by jfw215

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1 trade today. +137bps. I missed another big runner by 10 seconds. It's all good. posting both charts. I'm glad to be back. I do notice I made a mental error on my exit. I was focusing on how the last 2 trades I had were small losses, which made me want to tighten my stop on this trade just a tad too soon. I then said oh its been 30mins since open so I can tighten my stop now. That is me trying to make up a rule on the spot. Next time this comes to mind, I will actively disconnect the two. Overall, I am feeling pretty good about it. I'm excited that I'm near complete of collecting sample of 20 trades for the first batch. 

 

20190219 FCX 5min.PNG

20190219 ROKU 5min.PNG

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Today had 3 trades, + 73 bps. The 2nd red dot on ALB was an error, somehow 1 share got executed at the lower price. I started new batch of trades today. The tweak was the exit is now based on trailing exit instead of manually calling it. I found it to be extremely uncomfortable as I sat through each retracement on DPZ. To see profit retrace back to zero or negative is associated with much pain. It feels as if it's a permanent loss. My goal is to execute my trading plan and not trade based on my emotions. I am very proud of the 2nd exit on DPZ for 170bps. I will do my best to continue this work. I do notice I may be giving back a bit too much on my losers, I will not change anything until the next batch of trades. 

5c6ee636c527c_20190221DPZ5min.thumb.PNG.033ee47091c4a7f62f2e523cf86fcf55.PNG

 

20190221 ALB 5min.PNG

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I traded alot today. 9 trades, 8 losers and BEs, 1 runner that paid for them all. Gotta keep swinging! totaled 240 bps before commission. The first winner on W, I did not count - it was a mistake that led to profit. I felt like a machine, kept pulling the trigger, watch the 1min chart, see it doesn't go anywhere, take my small loss... over and over... then one takes off... Let it run... the whole time I was thinking I hope that the one winner will pay for all the losers. I was tempted to close out the winner early. I had no idea that the payoff distribution for this strategy would be so extreme - 8 tiny losses before hitting a big win. Pays to keep the losses tiny and keep swinging. 

20190222 CAG 5min.PNG

20190222 HST 5min.PNG

20190222 KEYS 5min.PNG

20190222 KHC 5min.PNG

20190222 ROKU 5min.PNG

20190222 SJM 5min.PNG

20190222 W 5min.PNG

20190222 Z 5min.PNG

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    • I traded alot today. 9 trades, 8 losers and BEs, 1 runner that paid for them all. Gotta keep swinging! totaled 240 bps before commission. The first winner on W, I did not count - it was a mistake that led to profit. I felt like a machine, kept pulling the trigger, watch the 1min chart, see it doesn't go anywhere, take my small loss... over and over... then one takes off... Let it run... the whole time I was thinking I hope that the one winner will pay for all the losers. I was tempted to close out the winner early. I had no idea that the payoff distribution for this strategy would be so extreme - 8 tiny losses before hitting a big win. Pays to keep the losses tiny and keep swinging. 
    • Date : 22nd February 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd February 2019.



      FX News Today Both Topix and Nikkei, declined during the Asian session, with -0.25% and -0.18% respectively. Overall, stock markets in Asia struggled through most of the session as subdued inflation data rekindled concerns about a lack of demand and flagging growth and after Wall Street closed in the red. News that US President Trump will meet with China’s top trade negotiator today in Washington seems to have helped Chinese markets to stage a late rally and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 1.76% and 1.51% respectively and the Hang Seng also managed to claw back losses and is up 0.11%. US stock futures are posting marginal gains and the April WTI future is trading at just over USD 57 per barrel. USDCAD rallied over 1.32 to 1.3225, as Oil inventories rose, with the US at record production levels. Oil price is now back around the $57 mark. Japanese CPI data same as forecasts, pushing the Yen higher. Charts of the Day


      Main Macro Events Today EU CPI Inflation – Core inflation is expected to be confirmed at 1.1% y/y while the overall inflation rate is expected to have stood at 1.4% in January. Canadian Retail Sales – Retail Sales are expected to have declined by 0.3% m/m in December, an improvement from the 0.6% declined observed in November. Mario Draghi Speech – The ECB President is due to speak to the University of Bologna where he will accept an honourary degree. Support and Resistance
       
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      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Actions for the 21st. 
    • Today had 3 trades, + 73 bps. The 2nd red dot on ALB was an error, somehow 1 share got executed at the lower price. I started new batch of trades today. The tweak was the exit is now based on trailing exit instead of manually calling it. I found it to be extremely uncomfortable as I sat through each retracement on DPZ. To see profit retrace back to zero or negative is associated with much pain. It feels as if it's a permanent loss. My goal is to execute my trading plan and not trade based on my emotions. I am very proud of the 2nd exit on DPZ for 170bps. I will do my best to continue this work. I do notice I may be giving back a bit too much on my losers, I will not change anything until the next batch of trades.   
    • I forgot to post yesterday. I was down 72 bps.  
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