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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 18th June 2021. Market Update – June 18 – The FED still dominates. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – USD holds on to gains (USDIndex test 92.00) US Equities mixed – (USA100 +0.87% & new ATH, USA30 -0.62%). BoJ left policy unchanged and stuck to its ultra-accommodative policy setting & extended COVID funding. JPY Inflation came in better than expected to with the CORE reading turning positive (just) for the first time since April 2020. Asian shares up but closing lower for the week. Round Number Friday – EUR down to1.1900, JPY 110.00 and Cable 1.3900. 10 yr Yields 1.51% but the spreads between US Corporate debt and US Government debt is at a 10-year low¹ – and could explain the tech rally yesterday following the Hawkish FED. Gold dived to $1770 (open the week at $1875; -5.6%) trades at $1785 now. USOil Overnight – Big beat for German PPI (1.5% vs 0.7%, & 0.8% prev.) and big miss for UK Retail Sales (-1.4% vs 1.5%, & prev: 9.2%) European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower and in cash markets Eurozone bonds are also finding some support, although the U.S. 10-year rate has lifted 0.7 bp to 1.51% overnight. Stocks traded narrowly mixed across Asia and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also little changed, while US futures are slightly higher, led by a 0.3% rise in the NASDAQ. With growth stabilising the tide is slowly turning, although it is clear that central banks will be taking a very, very cautious approach on tapering, with policy set to remain extremely accommodative for a long time to come. It seems unlikely that the BoE will break the line when it meets next week. – Action Economics Today – Little new news today – EU Econ Ministers meeting & Fed’s Kashkari, its also Quadruple Witching Friday (Quarterly Index & Stock Options and Futures Contracts all expire – 3rd Friday of the Quarter) Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.59%) turned lower again, has been under 20-day moving average since June 3 from 78.76. Breached 78.00 yesterday and 77.00 today. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 24 & OB, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.620. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 17th June 2021. Market Update – June 17 – BIG Surprise from the FOMC Dots. Market News Today – FED no rate change and $120bn bond buying to continue. BUT BIG hawkish surprise with plans for 2 x 0.25% rate rises in 2023 (13/18 votes), it had been 2024 and even 7/18 see rate rises in 2022. Statement increased 2021 growth to 7% from 6.5%, and inflation to 3.4% from 2.4% 3 months ago. “risks to the economic outlook remain“, rising inflation was “largely reflecting transitory factors”, recovery “significantly” dependent upon the next steps of the virus. We will taper when economy has reached “substantial further progress” will do what we can to “avoid a market reaction”. Next meeting July 27/28. USD (91.43), Yields (1.57%) and the VIX (20.46) all rallied. Stocks (-0.54%), Commodities(-2.0%+), EM currencies & Oil($71.10) all sank. Biden-Putin – both talked tough and of a “constructive” first Summit. The thorny issues of Nuclear Weapons, (my arsenal is bigger than yours) Cybersecurity (leave us alone, we never touched you) Geopolitics (where you go we will follow) were all on the agenda. Overnight – Big beats for AUD Jobs (115.2 k vs 30.5K) & Unemployment (5.1% vs 5.5%) & NZD GDP (1.65% vs 0.5%) data. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -63 ticks in catch up trade, while Treasuries have started to stabilise after the post-FOMC sell off. The slightly more hawkish stance at the Fed and stellar data out of Australia and New Zealand overnight seems to signal that markets need to prepare for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still down -0.3% and -0.4% respectively, US futures are also under pressure, after a largely weaker session in Asia overnight and a lower close on Wall Street. ECB’s Lane – “don’t be premature with assumptions over PEPP tapering” September meeting important but “a lot of data still to to come” before December. Today – Norges Bank, SNB and CBRT rate decisions, Eurozone CPI (final), US Weekly Claims, Philly Fed, CB Leading Index & ECB’s Elderson. Biggest Mover post FED @ (06:30 GMT) XAGUSD (-2.51%) turned lower again, ahead of FED after rejecting 27.80. Moved significantly below 27.00 to test of 26.56 in immediate aftermath, closed at 26.95. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 30.35 and testing OB zone, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.210 Daily ATR 0.603. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
I have been corresponding with a mathematically oriented gentleman who is quite brilliant in his approach to the markets but who is very close to going off the deep end. He wrote me the following email: "I have given the 45 degree - phenomenon a lot of thought. I pretty much would like to know how you figure out the inner workings. "What I think is: "(a) The route of the 45 degree cuts the Elliot 3 pivot and the 4 reverse pivot in half. The retracing swing from 3 to 4 (starting off with what looks like a congestion) is the playing field of the insiders. It quickly develops into a squeeze to the downside before the final 5th wave shoots up. "(b) Those who know what is happening, take full advantage of the less informed by jumping on their resting orders. The key is the knowledge that the 5th wave lies ahead. Then the load of contracts could be transferred to the public's 'greed-panic.'" While I would like to agree with what he has stated above, I'm not really sure of what he actually said: Are you? I submitted the following answer: I know virtually nothing about how to count Elliott waves or the meaning of Elliott wave counts. I have no reason to believe in them and many reasons to believe that they are nothing more than what is stated about Elliott Waves. It is a THEORY. Personally, I want to trade based on facts and the reality of what I'm seeing. My belief that Elliott Waves are virtually worthless comes from the results others have obtained from following them. I am very familiar with these results. I know that Elliott practitioners have been dead wrong about the stock market for multiple years running. Elliott wavers missed the bull market of the 1990s. I know that many times they wrongly predicted the rise and fall of the U.S. dollar. I know that people who follow Elliott Wave Theory were wrong about gold and silver for many years, predicting rises as those metals fell to multi-year lows. It is difficult for me to understand why anyone would want to trade based on a theory when they could trade based on what is plainly seen in the markets. Author: Joe Ross Profits from games of knowledge: https://www.predictmag.com/ -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 16th June 2021. Market Update – June 16 – FX Markets waiting for FOMC. Market News Today – US Markets closed down from new ATH’s (USA500 -8.5 4246) Mixed US data BIG miss for Retail Sales but PPI was stronger than expected. Dollar awaits FOMC – FX markets moribund. (USDIndex 90.44, EURUSD 1.2125, and Cable 1.4090. JPY holds the break of 110.00 & Yields the break of 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $72.50 following API inventory drawdowns. Gold dipped to $1850 and back to $1860 now. – Biggest move – VIX.F rallied over 13% to 19.42. Overnight – JPY data weaker than expected but a huge jump in Exports to a 41 year high. – UK Inflation (2.1%)- stronger than expected following big rise in jobs data yesterday. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are U.S. futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has moved up 0.5 bp to 1.497%, as markets wait for the FOMC announcement today. The big question will be whether the Fed signals that it is starting to think about tapering and investors are likely to trade cautiously into the event. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.019% and 0.153% respectively. US futures narrowly mixed, with the Nasdaq future outperforming and up 0.5%. Today – Chinese Industrial Output and Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Decision and Fed Chair Powell, US-Russia Summit, UK Economic Update (Treasury), ECB’s Elderson, de Guindos Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+12.5%) gapped on open to 19.42 following a test of the pre-pandemic low on Monday at 16.00. Closed yesterday at 17.17. Next resistance 20.00, support 20-day MA at 18.65. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI OB and flat at 78, MACD signal line and histogram rising and significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.3300 Daily ATR 1.14. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
Cardano Market Analysis: Market Rebounds as Bitcoin Surges Cardano (ADA) is up by over 11% over the past 24 hours and currently trades at $1.5800 in the mid-Monday session. This bull run is the largest one so far since the start of June. The recent market rally pushed Cardano’s market cap above the $49 billion price point. Regardless the market cap is still miles away from its highest point of $71.5 billion set in May. Also, the cryptocurrency trades down by -36.2% from its all-time high of $2.46 set on May 16. Meanwhile, despite the current bull market, Cardano is still down by over 8% over the past seven days. At press time, the fifth-largest cryptocurrency has a 24-hour volume of $2.60 billion, which represents 2.63% of the total trading volume in the crypto market. In other news, Bitcoin (BTC) has cleared the $40k barrier and is up by 13.6% over the past 24 hours, following a goodish tweet from Elon Musk. This surge in BTC is responsible for the broader bullish sentiment seen in the market today. Bitcoin currently has a market cap of $750 billion and commands 44% of the total market capitalization. Ethereum has also regained bullish momentum and is up by 9.4% over the past 24 hours, with a market cap of $290 billion, and dominates 17% of the total market capitalization. Key Cardano Levels to Watch — June 14 Cardano posted a healthy rebound from the $1.4000 support yesterday thanks to the broader bullish sentiment in the market and reached a high of $1.5813. However, the cryptocurrency fell, once again, to the $1.5000 area, where dip-buyers took charge and sent ADA to a new daily high at $1.5856. ADAUSD – Hourly Chart That said, we expect to see a bullish continuation over the coming hours and days to the $1.7000 resistance and higher points. Bearish moves from its current price point should get support from the $1.5467 support line, where our 200 SMA resides. Meanwhile, our resistance levels are $1.7000, $1.8300, and $1.9500, and our support levels are $1.5000, $1.4000, and $1.3108. Total Market Capitalization: $1.73 trillion Cardano Market Capitalization: $50.2 billion Cardano Dominance: 2.89% Market Rank: #5 Source: https://learn2.trade
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