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Unrealistic/irrational Expectations from Traders
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analyst75, in Trading Psychology
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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 16th April 2021. Market Update – Pricing in a solid global recovery again. Treasuries posted strong and very surprising gains, overlooking robust data and a solid rally on Wall Street. It was something of a buy-the-fact trade as hefty data was the well advertised risk (Retail sales surged 9.8% in March and climbed 8.4% excluding autos & Initial Jobless Claims tumbled -193k to 576k). The 10-year yield dropped 10 bps to 1.530%, the lowest in a month. The break of key technical levels added to the bid, with some haven demand too amid virus and vaccine worries, along with some geopolitical risks. The USA500 and the USA30 reached record highs thanks to strong data that supported the recovery narrative, along with hefty earnings, and the drop in yields. The USA100 outperformed with a better than 1% jump and is back over 14,000 for the first time since mid-February. As Refinitiv reported, USA100 traders were all bulled up buying the tech breakout yesterday after the USA100 rallied 10%. BUT we should keep an eye on technicals as RSI has reached overbought levels. Elsewhere, Asia markets were largely steady after China reported a sharp acceleration in first quarter growth, though the reading slightly undershot expectations while retail sales bounced strongly last month. For Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. In FX markets, EURUSD is little changed at 1.1968, while GBPUSD dropped back to 1.3761. USDJPY is little changed at 108.79. AUD and NZD fell slightly below yesterday’s peak. USOIL extended gains to 63.84. Gold held steady near a more than one-month high on Friday, en route to its second straight weekly gain, boosted by a drop in US Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar. Today – Today’s data calendar focuses on final Eurozone inflation readings for March and February trade data also for the Eurozone. US Building permits, housing starts and Michigan Index are also on tap. Biggest (FX) Mover – (EURGBP @ 07:30 GMT -0.43%) The asset rallied to 0.8710 retesting the 7-week highs for a 3rd time. Intraday the fast MAs aligned higher, RSI is at 66, while MACD is positive but signal line holds at neutral. ATR (H1) at 0.00061 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00488. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 15th April 2021. Q1 Earnings Season – BAC and Citigroup. This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest, with many of the major US banks reporting and expected to massively beat consensus, something that could please the bulls. But will this be the case? And if yes, then what? As Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan stated, Q1 is the peak in terms of earnings growth; even though the absolute level of growth will still be very healthy, deceleration is a powerful force in the market. Nevertheless, investors seem to be waiting for new catalysts before pushing valuations out much further and the earnings season provides a major focus against the background of conflicting virus and vaccine headlines. Hence the earnings slate remains busy for the remainder of the week, and will include reports from UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Pepsico, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, PPG, Delta Airlines, J.B. Hunt, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Kansas City Southern, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial. Hence the focus today turns to Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. and their first Quarter earnings release for 2021. The Bank of America (#BankofAmerica OR BOA) consensus recommendation is “Buy”, even though revenues are expected to miss as earnings are likely to exceed according to the majority of the consensus recommendations from the Eikon Reuters terminal. According to Zacks Investment Research, the report for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2021 is expected to experience a near quarter rally of its Earnings Per Share (EPS) compared to last year, at 0.65 from0.65from0.40. Reuters Eikon predicts similar EPS, while the company’s revenue is seen depreciating slightly from a year ago to $22.03 billion (Eikon) with a mean change at 3.63%. The BOA has surpassed earnings forecasts in the last two quarters, driven by a positive decline in provisions of credit losses on a sequential basis, while its revenues have suffered due to weakness in core banking, which it is strongly dependent on. As Forbes stated, the company witnessed an 11% y-o-y drop in net interest income, which contributes around 50% of the total revenues. Despite the fact that the financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the 1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed1.9trillionStimulusBillandtheproposed2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to continue benefitting the banking sector, the net interest drop led to a drop in the full year 2020 BOA revenues, despite a 20% jump in the Global Markets segment driven by higher sales & trading and investment banking revenues. In regards to Citigroup now, things are slightly different as the bank’s pandemic reserves are worth almost 10% of the bank’s market capitalisation. However as more and more Americans are vaccinated and the government releases more stimulus, the more the pressure from the banks’ credit models will be for the banks to release some of the cash. This means Citgroup will face less pressure than other big banks. On top of the above, Citigroup is in general in a better setup as higher trading activity in the securities market and a jump in underwriting deal volumes boosted trading and investment banking revenues for all the main banks and Citigroup was no different. Further, with the stimulus and possible vaccination development (so far 119 million people have received the Covid-19 vaccine in the US), provisions are expected to see a further decrease in Q1 2021, boosting its profitability. Hence Citigroup is expected to report adjusted earnings of 2.60, in comparison with the2.60,incomparisonwiththe1.06 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $18.82 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, nearly 9% lower than Q1 2020. From a technical perspective, whatever the outcomes are, much is anticipated from the numbers of Bank of America and Citigroup, both banks are expected to outperform the consensus estimates for earnings, while revenues are likely to fall short of expectations. Both banks remain technically Bullish, trading north of their respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. Today #Citigroup is at 72.90,[/B] below its 2021 highs at 72.90,[/B]belowits2021highsat[B]76.13 but still in 3-year high territory. #BankofAmerica is at 39.86, just a breath below all record highs with next Resistance areas at the Fibonacci extensions, at the 39.86[/B],justabreathbelowallrecordhighswithnextResistanceareasattheFibonacciextensions,atthe[B]42 and $45.30 levels. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 14th April 2021. Market Update – World stocks hit record high. Market News Today – Treasuries erased early gains, but bond markets across Asia remained supported, after investors shrugged off the hotter than expected US inflation number yesterday and focused on the successful 30-year bond auction. Global stock markets rose to a record high on Wednesday as bond yields eased after data showed US inflation was not rising wildly as the economy reopens. As Reuters reported, Johnson & Johnson’s shares slid 1.34% after US federal health agencies recommended pausing the rollout of its COVID-19 vaccine for at least a few days, after six women developed rare blood clots. Setbacks to vaccination rollouts have raised concerns about the global economic recovery. New Zealand’s RBNZ left policy settings unchanged and confirmed its commitment to an expansionary policy, which helped to underpin the rise in Australia and New Zealand bonds. A sharp sell off in one of China’s largest bad-debt managers attracted attention and rekindled concerns over credit markets. Bloomberg also reported that Tencent Holdings Ltd is holding off marketing a planned dollar bond deal. Central banks remain focused on providing stimulus and the hotter than expected US inflation number hasn’t re-booted reflation trades so far, as negative vaccine headlines added to the already concerning outlook for EU supply. In FX markets, the USD was steady to lower after yesterday’s decline in Treasury yields and USDJPY fell back to 108.96. AUD and NZD gained. Both EUR and GBP lifted against a largely weaker Dollar, with EURUSD currently at 1.1964 and Cable at 1.3777. USOIL meanwhile is trading at 60.73 per barrel. Bitcoin hit a record above 60.73perbarrel.[B]Bitcoin[/B]hitarecordabove[B]64,500, extending its 2021 rally as Coinbase shares are due to list in the United States. Gold held up well against the USD. Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the overall outlook, but include Eurozone production data for February and inflation numbers out of Sweden. Comments from ECB’s Guindos will also be in focus. US calendar has March trade prices but earnings to headline with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS.N among the companies reporting. Biggest (FX) Mover – (NZDUSD @ 07:30 GMT +0.61%) The NZDUSD spiked higher on the largely USD weakness and after the RBNZ statement. The asset broke its 1-week resistance and turned above R2 and the round 0.7100 level. Currently fast MAs and MACD lines are aligned higher but RSI and Stochastics have started turning lower, suggesting a potential pullback. ATR (H1) at 0.00119 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00566. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
covid illustrates 'the extraordinary madness of crowds' and that young people are more skeered of covid than older people is a sign of effective psyops ... just sayin' https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-04-11-5-dumbest-things-americans-doing-more-susceptible-covid19-mutations.html -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 13th April 2021. Q1 Earnings Season – The Banks. This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest with many of the major US banks reporting. Q1 earnings are seen as key for setting the tone of company performances as the post-pandemic timeframe gains momentum as the vaccination rate continues to climb and states continue to open up. Overall the US equity markets closed at all-time highs again last week, with a strong close on Friday just shy of those inter-day highs. The USA500 closed at 4,123, the USA100 at 13,800 and the USA30 at 33,751. The Financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the 1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed1.9trillionStimulusBillandtheproposed2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to benefit the banking sector in particular. So far 20 of the S&P 500 companies have reported and on average they have beat expectations by 11%, which is over 1.5 times above their average over the last 3 years. Overall expectations for the S&P 500 is for Q1 Earnings to grow by a very significant 25%, which would be the best performing quarter since President Trump’s tax cut inspired Q1 2018. Additionally, what is more encouraging is that estimates have been rising as the Earnings Season arrives; normally they start to decline as the data starts to emerge. Back in late February/early March consensus was for 22% Q1 growth. This enthusiasm is tempered by the high valuations the S&P500 is running currently; forward earnings are currently projected at 22.3 times whereas in a normal economic cycle the historical average is 15 times earnings, hence the scepticsim over further growth from here. However, overall 2021 earnings growth remains very robust and is penciled in at 26.5% versus a -12.6% decline for 2020. Another key drag on future growth in 2021 is President Biden’s proposed increase in Corporation Tax to 28% from 21%; estimates suggest that this could reduce earnings by 7.4% for 2021. Earnings season kicks off significantly tomorrow, (April 14) with big banks leading the charge. Reports are due from JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and First Republic Bank. Later in the week there will be data from Bank of America, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial. Whatever the outcome, much is anticipated from the numbers and tomorrow (April 14) JP Morgan are first up at 12:00 GMT with expectations of an Earnings per share (EPS) of 3.10[/B] and revenues increasing 5% to 3.10[/B]andrevenuesincreasing530.10 billion, this is followed by Goldman Sachs at 12:25 GMT with consensus numbers of an EPS at 9.79 and revenues also up to 9.79[/B]andrevenuesalsoupto[B]11.71 billion and also before the bell tomorrow is Wells Fargo at 13:05 GMT with an expected EPS of 0.69 on revenues of 0.69[/B]onrevenuesof[B]17.41 billion. Last time JPM and Goldman Sachs both beat on both revenue and EPS numbers significantly whilst Wells Fargo missed, disappointing the markets. All three key banks remain technically Bullish trading north of their respective 20-day moving averages. On Monday (April 12) JPM closed at 153.07, a few dollars shy of the March 18 high at 153.07[/B],afewdollarsshyoftheMarch18highat[B]157.18, Goldman Sachs closed down 2% at 324, some 324[/B],some[B]23 below the March 18 high, whilst Wells Fargo closed at 39.98 off 1.93% for the day and 39.98[/B]off1.930.89 below the close on March 18. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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