Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

analyst75

A Trading Question I Often Ponder

Recommended Posts

Can you be too stupid to trade and the answer is obviously yes. If you are defeated by how your toaster works then trading is not for you, nor is anything else probably. However, my observation over the decades has been that despite what the industry would have you believe trading is not that hard. The cognitive skills one needs are quite limited, in fact the smarter you are the harder trading seems to be as there is a constant desire to tinker or set off on a quest for the Holy Grail. LB often says that you need to be smart enough to write a trading plan and dumb enough to follow it religiously and this seems about right.

 

What does inevitably defeat people is their own psychology and inability to either adapt or let go of their most deeply held beliefs about trading and themselves. As an example I was in the background when LB had a conversation with a trader recently and this particular individual was so wedded to things they had heard on internet chat forums that they simply couldn’t let them go despite them being wrong. A major point of contention was their belief that you had to get the majority of your trades right or you just couldn’t make money. This is clearly incorrect and can be shown to be show quite quickly. The table below looks at the percentage of winning trades needed to be profitable based upon the average R multiple of each trade.

 

Please visit this link to see the graphs that come with the article: http://tradinggame.com.au/a-question-i-often-ponder/?utm_source=Blog+Subscribers&utm_campaign=7415e3b213-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_eb90516269-7415e3b213-43344013

 

As you might expect the larger your average R the larger the effective buffer you have to insulate you from being incorrect and since being incorrect is the default state for traders this is a handy thing to know. This is of course a simulation and the real world is a little bit dirtier than this so I went back and looked one of my short term systems for the past four years. Surprisingly, for a short term system it trades quite infrequently. The results presented below are from the S&P/ASX200 which is one of the instruments in the portfolio I trade with this approach.

 

If you were simply judging this system on the number of trades it got right then you would consider it to be a bit of a disappointment but each year it has been profitable. This profitability is based upon catching one or two big moves during the year and simply hanging on. This is what saved the system in 2015 when it made no money for the bulk of the year. This highlights the dichotomy that appears in trading – there are traders who trade for entertainment and part of this is having your ego massaged by thinking you are correct. And then there are those of us who trade simply for money. If I am to be charitable it is quite natural for people to think that you need to get the majority of trades correct in order to win since we are geared to accept reward as being commensurate with being right.

 

All of the above is predicated on two things – they are average returns over time and it is this notion of the deep time needed in trading that causes people difficulty. You have to allow the system time to build momentum and for you to get used to its ebbs and flows. As I seem to repeat endlessly trading is not a lottery you don’t suddenly wake up one day and make $20 million. You grind away over time.

 

Author: Chris Tate

 

Article reproduced with kind permission of Tradinggame.com.au

 

Below are some useful quotes from trading experts:

 

‘”Insisting on perfect safety is for people who don’t have the balls to live in the real world.’ (Mary Shafer -NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA SR-71 Flying Qualities Lead Engineer)… I stumbled across this quote and thought it was the most perfect description of what is required for trading. If you don’t have the nerve to accept that trading is an imperfect, dirty and chaotic endeavor then it is not for you.” – Chris Tate

 

“There are plenty of traders who make their money when a market is not going anywhere. Option sellers who straddle and strangle love markets that are going nowhere at all...” – Andy Jordan

 

“Risk is the most relevant aspect of trading! Risk is the only thing you can control. You cannot control your profits.” – Topsteptrader

 

“Self-mastery makes trading mastery and wealth mastery easy.” – Van Tharp

 

http://www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Good afternoon, I'm new on here.  I came looking to find some info on the Forex market.  I've seen lots of brokers ads about the Forex and seen some people talking about the Forex market, but I've never payed to much attention to it. I always had other markets to look at or other things to do.  So, what I need is a point to start learning ... like what a PIP is,  how do you buy/sell this currency pair, how much money is a PIP ( if I make 100 PIPs how much is that ) , etc. Secondly,  I wanted to know if anyone had ever taken the EAP course by Steven Hart ?  How that came out and so forth ?
    • Date : 22nd March 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2019.FX News Today Bund yields slightly higher in opening trade after cautious session on Asian stock markets. EU hands UK another 2 weeks to avoid no-deal Brexit, eyes May 22 exit if deal passes, otherwise PM May must come up with a Plan B. If the deal gets through, an extension until May 22 has already been backed by the EU-27. Japan’s nationwide core CPI undershot expectations at 0.7% y/y in February. The European calendar focuses on Eurozone prel. March Manufacturing PMI readings. Gold whipsawed back toward $1,300 by resurgent USD index near 96.5 EURUSD corrected back under 1.1400. USDJPY up from 5-week low of 110.28. WTI crude has settled slightly below $60.0 after posting a fresh 4-month high at $60.39 Charts of the DayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD is slightly below Pivot Point of the day and the 38.2% Fib from the week’s peak, at 1.1385. A decisive break could lead towards 1.1410 Resistance. However indicators are not supportive, as they remain negatively configured. GBPUSD topped at 1.3160, however the last 4 small body candles along with the latest doji candle suggest that upside movement might reach an end. Support at 1.3113 and 1.3000. USDJPY dropped further into London open, down to 110.70. Indicators retreated from neutral zone, with RSI looking lower. The next Support level is at 110.64, and 110.36. Main Macro Events Today Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally to 49.5 from 49.3 and the services reading to ease slightly to a still strong 52.7 from 52.8, which should leave the composite slightly higher at 52.0, versus 51.9 in the previous month. Canadian CPI – The CPI is expected to climb 0.5% in February (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% rise in January, boosted by stronger gasoline prices and seasonal strength in February’s CPI. Canadian Retail Sales – The Retail sales are anticipated at 0.3% in January after the 0.1% dip in December. US Home Sales – Sales are estimated to grow 0.6% following a 1.0% December decline. The I/S(Inventory to Sales) ratio should edge down to 1.32, from 1.33. Support and Resistance Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Halts Weakness With Eyes On More Recovery USDJPY eyes more recovery following its price halt on Thursday. As long as it stays above the 110.35 support zone, more price strength is expected. On the upside, resistance comes in at 111.50 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 112.00 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 112.50 level. A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 113.00. On the downside, support comes in at the 110.50 level where a break will target the 110.00 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 109.50 level and then lower towards the 109.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further upside pressure on further recovery.  
    • Latest SC screen found a few tech related breakout watch stocks $COUP $VECO $AMBA $EBAY $MXL and $INTC , analysis https://stockconsultant.com/?COUP
    • USDCAD Eyes More Upside Pressure On Corrective Recovery USDCAD eyes more upside pressure on corrective recovery as it saw a rally on Thursday. Support comes in at the 1.3300 level where a break will aim at the 1.3250 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3200 level where a turn lower may occur. But if further weakness is triggered support comes in at the 1.3150 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1.3400 level where a violation will target the 1.3450 level. Further up, resistance resides at the 1.3500 level and then the 1.3550 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside pressure. All in all, USDCAD looks to strengthen further higher on more correction.  
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.