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Metaverse Further Weakness To Be Expected

The Metaverse coin continues trading within the descending channel and it fails to show any signs of strength. Strong resistance has been formed near $4 level that previously acted as a support.

... read more Metaverse Further Weakness To Be Expected | CryptoPost

 

OmiseGo Breaking Above The Trendline

On the 2nd of November, OmiseGo tested $5.5, which is the lowest price since August. While testing the low it rejected the 327.2% Fibonacci support level applied to the corrective wave after the downtrend trendline breakout.

... read more OmiseGo Breaking Above The Trendline | CryptoPost

 

MaidSafeCoin vs Bitcoin Bullish Divergence

Bitcoin has been outperforming MaidSafe coin up until the 2nd of November when it tested 4086 satoshi. At the same time, it rejected the 227.2% Fibonacci retracement level applied to the corrective wave after the uptrend trendline breakout.

... read more MaidSafeCoin vs Bitcoin Bullish Divergence | CryptoPost

 

Bitcoin Plus – Time To Go Down?

BitcoinPlus found the bottom at $30 psychological round number after which it went up sharply hitting $123 and gaining 330% in less than a week.

... read more Bitcoin Plus ? Time To Go Down? | CryptoPost

 

NEM Does Look Pretty

After a strong correction from $0.358 down to $0.138, with a total loss of 60%, NEM finally found the support at 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level applied to the corrective wave after the uptrend trendline breakout.

... read more NEM Does Look Pretty | CryptoPost

 

AEON Soon To Rise?

Aeon reached an all-time high on the 1st of October, hitting $3.74. The correction down took place and AEON/USD was moving down for just over a month. On the 3rd of November, it was stopped by 127.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1.15, where it found the support.

... read more AEON Soon To Rise? | CryptoPost

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Factom vs Bitcoin Bullish Divergence

Factom found the support at BTC 0.0015 after which it broke above the downtrend trendline. The breakout was accompanied by the bullish divergence on the MACD indicator suggests that the trend could be reversing to the upside. On the 4h timeframe, FCT/BTC also broke above the 200 Moving Average adding extra confirmation to the potential trend reversal.

Factom vs Bitcoin Bullish Divergence | CryptoPost

 

Civic – Ready, Steady… Go!?!

Civic definitely found the support around $0.26 area where it has bounced off for at least four times now. The last bounce has been on the 17th of November, after which price broke above the descending channel and 200 Moving Average.

Civic ? Ready, Steady? Go!?! | CryptoPost

 

EOS At The Resistance, But With 75% Upside Potential

Based on our previous idea, EOS went higher and broke above both upside targets. However, EOS/USD found the resistance at 227.2% Fibonacci retracement applied to the corrective wave after the breakout of the descending channel.

EOS At The Resistance, But With 75% Upside Potential | CryptoPost

 

Aeon Consolidation Mode

As per our previous idea, Aeon gone up and rejected the resistance at 227.2% Fibonacci, that is $3.15. The target was reached by the price spike, rather than steady growth, and then immediately went down to $2.5 area, where it is currently trading.

Aeon Consolidation Mode | CryptoPost

 

Ethereum Magic Number $555

Although it seems Ethereum is going through the wide range trading, the sings of the long-term uptrend continuation are starting to appear. After multiple bounces off the support at $280 area, the price started to move higher and broke above the 200 Moving Average as well as the previous high, made on 16th of October.

Ethereum Magic Number $555 | CryptoPost

 

OmiseGo Plans To Rise After Trendline Breakout

OmiseGo showing some strength during the past week. It has managed to break above the downtrend trendline and on a corrective wave down it rejected it. Same happened with the RSI Oscillator breaking the trendline and then rejecting it.

OmiseGo Plans To Rise After Trendline Breakout | CryptoPost

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Bitcoin heavy uptrend continues highing the all-time high today $9950. It is approaching a very important psychological resistance, that is $10,000, but will it actually stop there? Should the correction be expected? How far?

 

These are the questions most would love to be answered, but there is no clear answer as this is a game of probabilities. The probability of the uptrend continuation remains very high and the very first resistance is actually almost $10k, and to be precise – $10036. This is a1527.2% Fibonacci level applied the corrective wave after the downtrend channel breakout on the 16th of September.

 

As per chart 427.2%, 527.2% and 1027.2% retracement levels were respected by the market while acting as support levels. This means that indicator is still valid and could be used to calculate the upside target.

 

There are 3 important resistance levels to watch.

 

First a strong psychological resistance at $10036, which corresponds to 1527.2% Fibonacci.

 

Second, the most important resistance level is at $10455, which corresponds to 16.27.2% and 227.2% Fibonacci applied to the corrective wave down through 5-12 November. At the same time, it is inline with the upper trendline of the ascending channel.

 

Finally, the third target is $10870, which corresponds to 1727.2% Fibonacci.

 

All in all, the trend remains bullish with the nearest support level being at $9500, where uptrend trendline was rejected. Break below $9500 could result in a corrective wave down to the key support at $7950. But while the price is above this support an uptrend continuation should be expected.

 

Trade Idea: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Yaw9jefP-Bitcoin-Approaching-10k-Will-It-Stop/

BKMbeiaC

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Civic Found The Resistance, Break Above Is Needed

 

Following the previous idea on Civic, the price reached the first resistance level 127.2% Fibonacci retracement, that is at $0.41, but failed to break above, instead, it has bounced off. After the resistance has been rejected CVC/USD went down again testing the $0.25 support. The support also has been rejected and now Civic continues to trade within the $0.26-0.40 range.

 

In order for Civic to continue moving higher, it must break above the resistance, specifically about the high established on 5th of December, $0.44. Break, and daily close above should confirm the uptrend and most likely will establish the uptrend.

 

There are few resistance levels on the way up to the final upside target at $0.8 area. The first resistance is at $0.55, that is 227.2% Fibs applied to the first corrective wave after the descending channel breakout. Second, 327.2% at $0.68. The upside target is seen at $0.8 area that is inline with 427.2% and 127.2% Fibs. Break above the upside target could accelerate the uptrend even more. But on the downside, break and daily close below the $0.21 low, will invalidate bullish outlook.

 

Source: Civic Found The Resistance, Break Above Is Needed | CryptoPost

 

ZTYcvIHa

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Dash Still Losing To Bitcoin

 

Following the previous idea on Dash / Bitcoin, the price has bounced off the key resistance level at btc 0.08, that was also a strong psychological level. After rejecting the resistance, Dash immediately dropped down to btc 0.036, losing over 50% to Bitcoin in just one week.

 

Fibonacci applied to the corrective wave after the uptrend trendline breakout show that there are two support levels to watch. First is 127.2% at btc 0.044 which was already broken. Nevertheless, a clean bounce off it could result in the change in trend.

 

But at this point, another wave down towards the second support at 161.8% Fibonacci level at btc 0.033 can be expected. This is a strong support for Dash as in the beginning of November it was rejected twice.

 

At the same time, the btc 0.05 resistance area should be watched closely, as a break above could establish an uptrend. All-in-all the downside risk remains and buying Dash at the current price could be a premature investment.

 

Source: Dash Still Losing To Bitcoin | CryptoPost

 

mWAY1AoX

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DigiByte Could Start Dominating Over Bitcoin

 

During the past week, DigiByte went sharply down and lost to Bitcoin more than 50% while moving from 160 satoshi down to 70 satoshi. But it found the support at 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level applied to the last corrective wave up which is 83 satoshi. Although price spiked down lower and rejected the downtrend trendline, it recovered quickly and broke above the downtrend trendline.

 

Current corrective wave down is showing that the 83 satoshi support is being rejected for the second time which could potentially result in a trend reversal for DGB/BTC.

 

The DigiByte price remains extremely cheap, that could attract more and more investors over the coming week, although break and daily close below the 70 satoshi low would invalidate bullish outlook. Still, the risk/reward ratio is huge and many could consider DigiByte a worthy investment.

 

Source: DigiByte Could Start Dominating Over Bitcoin | CryptoPost

 

oGMKXMS7

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VeryCoin Might Go Lower

 

Following the previous idea on VeriCoin, it has reached the upside target and rejected it. Now clearly there is a strong resistance at $0.65, which is the 127.2% Fibonacci applied to the last corrective wave down. The rejection was clean followed by a strong correctional move down.

 

Currently, VeriCoin is likely to continue trading within the range between the $0.65 resistance and $0.40 support. At the same time, with the fact of the resistance being rejected there is more probability of further decline, unless the resistance will be broken.

 

Source: VeryCoin Might Go Lower | CryptoPost

 

DIHrxtWo

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Elastic Explosive Growth Potential

 

Elastic has been rejecting the $0.22 support during the past few months and finally, today it broke above the triangle pattern. The breakout was very clean while the price on 4h and 8h charts closed above the downtrend trendline.

 

What is interesting is that the breakout was accompanied by a heavy volume and was very sharp. This could indicate on the money and interest flowing into the Elastic coin where trading under heavy volume is likely to continue. If this will be the case, investors ave could see an explosive move up on XEL/USD, potentially resulting in 200%, 400% or even larget growth against USD.

 

First strong resistance could be at 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level applied to the corrective wave from August, that is $1.15. The second target is 227.2% level at $1.9.

 

Only a break and daily close below the $0.17 will invalidate bullish outlook. The rewards for such a small risk seems enormous and therefore the buying opportunity is very attractive.

 

Source: Elastic Explosive Growth Potential | CryptoPost

 

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Verge VS Bitcoin – The Bottom?

 

In July Verge broke below the uptrend trendline and since then it has been consistently moving lower and lost 66% to Bitcoin while falling from 113 satoshi down to 44 satoshi.

 

Fibonacci applied to the corrective wave up after the trendline breakout, which is the same wave where 200 Moving Average has been rejected, shows that 327.2% retracement level has acted as a support with a very precise bounce off.

 

Currently, XVG/BTC continues trading within the descending channel although the lower trendline is also now acting as a support suggesting that Verge is planning to go ahead of Bitcoin. Perhaps buying Verge might seem a little early, but as the support is holding the opportunity is there.

 

Source: Verge VS Bitcoin ? The Bottom? | CryptoPost

 

xcOOpXcN

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EOS – How Far Up?

 

Following the previous idea on EOS it has gone sharply up and broke above the $3.6 resistance level. After breaking above price corrected back and found the support at this level. It has been rejected together with the uptrend trendline and uptrend resumed.

 

The next potential upside target, which is a strong resistance, is at $$6.2, where two Fibonacci inline. First 1027.2% applied to the corrective wave after the break above the 200 Moving Average, and second is 161.8% applied to the last corrective wave down.

 

They both point on $6.2, although EOS/USD could get even higher to test $7 psychological resistance area. Next resistance levels are $6.7 and then $7.2, which could be the final upside target for the current wave.

 

Key support stays at $3.6 and could be used for the longer term analysis or perhaps for a buying opportunity in the coming months. Break below $3.6 could reverse the trend.

 

Source: EOS ? How Far Up? | CryptoPost

 

XqHLXERr

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Augur Is On Fire

 

Following the previous idea on Augur, it has reached the upside target, which was a $30 psychological resistance level. However, REP/USD managed to go much higher and then corrected back to $25 support, confirmed by the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement applied to the corrective wave after the downtrend trendline breakout.

 

Augur also broke above the triangle pattern and found the support at the downtrend trendline. So far facts are pointing to the strong uptrend that is likely to continue. During the coming weeks, Augur might be on fire, with a huge growth potential, where it could rise up to $86.

 

On the way up there are few resistance levels that should be watched, 427.2% fibs at $45 and 727.2% fibs at $65. Any of that resistance could also act as a target, but if broken, Augur could go up to the final target at $86.

 

Source: Augur Is On Fire | CryptoPost

 

bTkMIsEG

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Storj Time Is Now

 

Storj coin seems to find a strong support near 5k satoshi. This support is confirmed by a 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last corrective wave up.

 

At the same time, STORJ/BITCOIN already rejected this price in the past, while between 21st and 23rd of October a small double bottom was formed. Now as the price returned to this level, once again it is acting as a support. If the support holds it should result in a corrective move up or even a trend reversal.

 

Nevertheless, the minor resistance at 6.6k satoshi should be watched as a break above should provide more strength to the Strorj against Bitcoin. A daily close below the key support at 5k satoshi could invalidate bullish outlook.

 

Source: Storj Time Is Now | CryptoPost

 

UuLJsOFZ

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Basic Attention Token Revealing The Trend

 

Basic Attention Token finally breaking above the descending channel as well as the downtrend trendline after rejecting the $0.123 support several times. BAT/USD shows higher highs and higher lows pattern, which is also suggesting the beginning of an uptrend.

 

Although the trend has been established it is not necessary that BAT will start moving higher straight away, prior consolidation is also possible. The upside targets are seen at 127.2% Fibonacci retracement applied to the corrective wave from 17th of August. The second target is the key resistance at 161.8%, that is $0.41, very close to $0.4 psychological level.

 

If BAT manages to break above $0.4, an uptrend is likely to continue and perhaps accelerate. On a downside note, the strong support remains at $0.123, where break and daily close blow should result in BAT/USD going even lower.

 

Source: Basic Attention Token Revealing The Trend | CryptoPost

 

Z3CUoxnU

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BitcoinCash vs Bitcoin Simple View

 

BitcoinCach established a low against Bitcoin at btc 0.068. Then it started to move higher breaking above the descending channel and btc 0.11 resistance.

 

While it has been able to close above the btc 0.111 on a 4h timeframe, this could indicate on a potential trend reversal or at least a correctional wave up. Break below the btc 0.068 support would invalidate bullish outlook, but for now, it seems like an interesting buying opportunity.

 

Source: BitcoinCash vs Bitcoin Simple View | CryptoPost

 

W12mTmm2

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Nexium Is Massively Undervalued

 

Nexium is clearly trending upwards while making higher highs and higher lows on a Daily timeframe. It continues to reject the uptrend trendline and currently is trading at $0.21, above the 200 Moving Average.

 

While the uptrend remains valid and Nexium is above the $0.13 support, buying opportunity remains, with a huge growth potential. The first real strong resistance that NXC/USD must overcome is at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement that is around $0.33 area. Break above should result in an exponential growth and could reach $1.35 within a relatively short period of time. Only a break and close below the $0.13 could invalidate bullish outlook.

 

Source: Nexium Is Massively Undervalued | CryptoPost

 

kAunAfXY

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StealthCoin Just Doesn’t Stop

 

StealthCoin continues to trade upwards without a stop. A consistent bullish momentum can be witnessed while XST/USD printing higher highs and higher lows. On the 4th of December price broke above the ascending channel suggesting the continuation or even acceleration of the uptrend.

 

The first target is seen at $0.54, that is 227.2% Fibonacci retracement level applied to the first corrective wave after the break above the 200 Moving Average. This level corresponds to the upper trendline of the extended ascending channel.

 

Break above $0.54 should push StealthCoin higher towards $1 strong psychological level where 527.2% Fibs retracement is based. Only a break and close below the 200 Moving Average could invalidate bullish outlook.

 

Source: StealthCoin Just Doesn?t Stop | CryptoPost

 

6adkl1gA

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Burst VS Bitcoin – Battle Begins

 

Burst found a strong support at 68 satoshi that has been rejected few times. The support is confirmed by the 427.2% Fibonacci retracement level applied to the corrective wave after the ascending channel breakout.

 

After rejecting the support BURST/BTC broke above the triangle pattern and then above the downtrend trendline. These are first signs of a potential corrective wave up or even a trend reversal. For now upside targets are not clear but it is clear that if it breaks below the support the bullish outlook will become invalid.

 

In any case, it seems that the growth potential is on its’ way and the risk/reward ratio is huge. This could attract investors and push Burst much higher.

 

Source: Burst VS Bitcoin ? Battle Begins | CryptoPost

 

MPb4bPPC

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MaidSafeCoin vs Bitcoin Rejecting The Support

 

Following the previous idea on MaidSafeCoin/Bitcoin, it broke below the 227.2% Fibonacci support at 4k satoshi. The next wave down was stopped at the next Fibs support, 261.8% level, that is 2.5k satoshi.

 

Price clearly bounced of that price and at the same time rejected the lower trendline of the descending channel. Currently, MAID/BTC stuck between 4k satoshi minor resistance and 2.5k satoshi support. Seems that MaidSafe coin at the very bottom although to confirm that break above the 4k resistance is required. If it manages to go higher, 10k satoshi psychological level should be the first upside target that is right at the upper trendline of the descending channel. However, it could be not just a correctional wave down but also a trend reversal.

 

On the downside note, only a weekly close below 2.5k satoshi support could invalidate bullish outlook.

 

d5ZraQvz

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Komodo vs Bitcoin – Great Timing?

 

Komodo found the support at 17k satoshi, that is 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level applied to the corrective wave after the ascending channel breakout. The rejection was very clean, followed but the wave up which resulted in break above the descending channel.

 

Current price action suggests that KMD/BTC could be correcting upwards or even reversing for a longer term. Price could rise up to 40k satoshi, where previously Komodo formed a double top. Break above that resistance could result in a continuation of the upwards momentum but it is yet to be seen. Only a daily break and close below the 17k satoshi could invalidate bullish outlook.

 

Source: Komodo vs Bitcoin ? Great Timing? | CryptoPost

 

tAYHtKxG

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Lisk VS Bitcoin – The Uptrend

 

Lisk had not so much interest during the past month, while it has been trending down from btc 0.0015 to btc 0.0004, loosing almost 75% against Bitcoin. But now things are looking to change as Lisk found the support at 46k satoshi and then at 52k satoshi. These price levels were rejected cleanly and are confirmed by 327.2% and 361.8% Fibonacci retracement applied to the corrective wave after the downtrend trendline breakout.

 

After rejecting the 46k support, LSK/BTC broke above the downtrend trendline, then rejected 52k support and today broke above the 200 Moving Average. So far price action shows signs of a strong bullish momentum and most likely Bitcoin will be outperformed by Lisk in the coming weeks.

 

There are multiple targets to watch, but the first strong resistance is based on 627.2% Fibonacci retracement applied to the corrective wave down after the downtrend trendline breakout. This is btc 0.0015 level, where LSK/BTC already established high on the 16th of November. The next strong resistance is btc 0.02 psychological round number which is at 927.2% Fibs and could go a little higher. On a downside note, only a break and close below the 46k satoshi support could invalidate bullish outlook.

 

Source: Lisk VS Bitcoin ? The Uptrend | CryptoPost

 

 

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Clams Uptrend Confirmation

 

The overall trend of Clams remains bullish as it continuously rejecting the uptrend trendline and printing higher highs and higher lows. Today clams broke above the 61.8% strong resistance, that is at $9.2, confirming the bullish momentum.

 

Now $9.2 becomes a support and uptrend could accelerate while the volatility is also growing. First upside target is seen at 127.2% Fibonacci applied to the last corrective wave down after Clams produced an all-time high at $13. Fibonacci target is located at $16 and should be watched closely for potential breakout or rejection. Break above should result in a more exponential growth, while rejection might result in a corrective wave down.

 

On a downside note, only a break and close below the 200 Moving Average would invalidate bullish outlook.

 

Source: Clams Uptrend Confirmation | CryptoPost

 

92x69tLR

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Civic / Bitcoin Bottomed Out

 

On the 8th of December Civic bottomed out while clearly rejecting the 261.8% Fibonacci support level at 1500 satoshi. Higher highs and higher lows pattern started to emerge while CVC/BTC broke above the descending channel.

 

Now it seems that the trend is about to reverse, or at least there will be a strong corrective wave up. The resistance is seen at 5000, 5800 and 6700 satoshi which are Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the corrective wave after the descending channel breakout.

 

It Civic manages to break above 6700 satoshi resistance, it could mean that the trend, in fact, is reversing, while if any of the resistance levels will be rejected, a corrective wave down or a continuation of the downtrend could take place. At this point, only a break and daily close below the 1520 support could invalidate bullish outlook.

 

Source: Civic / Bitcoin Bottomed Out | CryptoPost

 

HnUkSy7S

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StealthCoin VS Bitcoin Uptrend Continuation

 

StealthCoin found the support at 2k satoshi. This is a strong psychological round number and besides, it has acted as a support as well as resistance before. While XST/BTC price remains above that level a potential uptrend continuation could take place sending StealthCoin to new all-time highs.

 

The nearest resistance is seen at 127.2% Fibonacci retracement applied to the corrective wave from the already established all-time high, that is 11k satoshi. Next resistance is 14k satoshi that is 161.8% Fibonacci retracement.

 

Overall, the price of StealthCoin is very attractive especially for a medium-term and could bring investors a good chunk of profit.

 

Source: StealthCoin VS Bitcoin Uptrend Continuation | CryptoPost

 

EGWhtdAK

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BlackCoin VS Bitcoin Upcoming Wave

 

BlackCoin rejected the 227.2% Fibonacci support applied to the corrective wave after the 200 Moving Average was broken. After bouncing off the 1.9k satoshi support, today it went above the minor resistance at 2.5k satoshi and very likely to continue the correctional move up.

 

First resistance is at 61.8% Fibs retracement level, that is 5.7k satoshi. Break above that resistance should result in more growth towards the previously formed resistance around 8k satoshi area. Break above that resistance could establish a longer-term uptrend, but it yet to be seen how BLK/BTC will react to these obstacles. A daily close below 19k satoshi could invalidate bullish outlook and send BlackCoin slightly lower.

 

Source: BlackCoin VS Bitcoin Upcoming Wave | CryptoPost

 

tUmhgaWp

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Ethereum Classic Up To $80?

 

Following the previous idea on Ethereum Classic, after testing the 161.8% resistance it corrected down towards the uptrend trendline. The downtrend trendline has been rejected, then 127.2% Fibs and then 161.8% Fibs, all were rejected and ETC/USD produced a new all-time high.

 

Higher highs and higher lows pattern remain and price action suggests the continuation of the uptrend. However, both support levels must be watched for a potential breakout which could add another corrective wave down. And only break below the 200 Moving Average could invalidate bullish outlook.

 

The upside target is seen around $70. The first target is 427.2% Fibs at $72 and second is 461.8% Fibs at $77. At this point, the uptrend momentum could accelerate and the upside target should be reached in the shortest timeframe.

 

Source: Ethereum Classic Up To $80? | CryptoPost

 

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He also said that he doesn’t think the BoJ needs to change the forward guidance for now. Hence this is likely to remain the scenario in this week’s Monetary Policy Statement. * Employment and Earnings (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Earning growth excluding bonus is expected to have declined by 3.4% in November, below the 3.5% the previous month. The ILO unemployment rate (3M) for November could rise to 3.9% from 3.8%. * ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Economic Sentiment for January is projected at 4.3 from the 10.7 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline further to 5.5 from 11.2. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment at the start of the month. Wednesday – 22 January 2020 * Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The average of the three core CPI measures for December is expected to have come out slightly lower than last month, at 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y. The CPI backstops continue to back the BoC’s steady policy outlook. * Interest Rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 15:00) – No change is seen in the current 1.75% policy setting, alongside an announcement and MPR that are consistent with steady policy through year end. Thursday- 23 January 2020 * Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 13:30) – Australia’s recent employment report showed a slowdown in jobs growth also affected by the bushfires crisis. In December, the unemployment rate is anticipated to jump back to 5.3%  while the employment change is expected to fall to 14K from 39.9K last time. * ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45 & 13:30) – The ECB is expected to keep policy on hold in January as policy review starts. The ECB kept policy on hold and re-affirmed easing bias at the December policy meeting. * Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The overall New Zealand CPI for Q4 should rise to 2.2% y/y from 1.5%. * Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ Minutes report provides the BoJ Members’ opinions regarding the Japanese economic outlook and any views regarding future rate changes. Friday – 24 January 2020 * Chinese New Year’s Eve – Asia Markets closed * Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The prel. December manufacturing PMI was revised up to 46.3 from 45.9, still down from 46.9 in November. The manufacturing sector has been stuck in recession for eleven successive months. The composite PMI for January meanwhile is expected to be lifted to 51.0 along with a possible rise in services. * Markit PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The prel. UK Services PMI for January is forecasted to register a downwards reading  to 49.4  after the upwards revision last week at 50.0. * Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales should register a gain in November to 0.1%, after the -1.2% plunge to 0.1% in total sales values in October. * Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have decreased to 52.3 in January, compared to 52.4 in December. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • good news!! It seems you can make good money at forex Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake David Rodriguez 11-14 minutes We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Reward to Risk ratios play a vital role in capital preservation Why do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article, we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately. Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money? The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain. Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair   Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain. And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average Profit/Loss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. Let’s use EUR/USD as an example. We see that EUR/USD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBP/USD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBP/USD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out. Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run. It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose?         Expected Return Gains Choice A 50% chance to Win 1000 50% chance to Win 0 Expect to win $500 over time   Choice B Win 450   Win $450 Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again.         Expected Return Losses Choice A 50% chance to Lose 1000 50% chance to Lose 0 Expect to lose $500 over time   Choice B Lose 450   Lose $450 In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500, but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—500 dollars lost are equivalent to 500 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “reward/risk ratio”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your reward/risk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio. That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower reward/risk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher reward/risk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the reward/risk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. This will allow you to use the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. Traders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 or higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Interested in developing your own strategy? On page 2 of our Building Confidence in Trading Guide, we help you identify your trading style and create your own trading plan. Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake David Rodriguez 11-14 minutes We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Reward to Risk ratios play a vital role in capital preservation Why do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article, we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately. Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money? The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain. Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair     Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain. And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average Profit/Loss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. Let’s use EUR/USD as an example. We see that EUR/USD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBP/USD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBP/USD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out. Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run. It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose?         Expected Return Gains Choice A 50% chance to Win 1000 50% chance to Win 0 Expect to win $500 over time   Choice B Win 450   Win $450 Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again.         Expected Return Losses Choice A 50% chance to Lose 1000 50% chance to Lose 0 Expect to lose $500 over time   Choice B Lose 450   Lose $450 In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500, but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—500 dollars lost are equivalent to 500 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “reward/risk ratio”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your reward/risk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio. That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower reward/risk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher reward/risk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the reward/risk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. This will allow you to use the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. Traders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake David Rodriguez 11-14 minutes We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Reward to Risk ratios play a vital role in capital preservation Why do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article, we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately. Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money? The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain. Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain. And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average Profit/Loss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. Let’s use EUR/USD as an example. We see that EUR/USD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBP/USD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBP/USD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out. Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run. It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose?         Expected Return Gains Choice A 50% chance to Win 1000 50% chance to Win 0 Expect to win $500 over time   Choice B Win 450   Win $450 Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again.         Expected Return Losses Choice A 50% chance to Lose 1000 50% chance to Lose 0 Expect to lose $500 over time   Choice B Lose 450   Lose $450 In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500, but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—500 dollars lost are equivalent to 500 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “reward/risk ratio”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your reward/risk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio. That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower reward/risk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher reward/risk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the reward/risk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. This will allow you to use the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. Traders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake David Rodriguez 11-14 minutes We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Reward to Risk ratios play a vital role in capital preservation Why do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article, we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately. Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money? The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain. Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair   Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain. And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average Profit/Loss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. Let’s use EUR/USD as an example. We see that EUR/USD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBP/USD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBP/USD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out. Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run. It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose?         Expected Return Gains Choice A 50% chance to Win 1000 50% chance to Win 0 Expect to win $500 over time   Choice B Win 450   Win $450 Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again.         Expected Return Losses Choice A 50% chance to Lose 1000 50% chance to Lose 0 Expect to lose $500 over time   Choice B Lose 450   Lose $450 In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500, but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—500 dollars lost are equivalent to 500 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “reward/risk ratio”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your reward/risk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio. That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower reward/risk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher reward/risk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the reward/risk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. This will allow you to use the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. Traders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake David Rodriguez 11-14 minutes We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Reward to Risk ratios play a vital role in capital preservation Why do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article, we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately. Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money? The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain. Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair   Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain. And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average Profit/Loss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. Let’s use EUR/USD as an example. We see that EUR/USD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBP/USD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBP/USD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out. Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run. It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose?         Expected Return Gains Choice A 50% chance to Win 1000 50% chance to Win 0 Expect to win $500 over time   Choice B Win 450   Win $450 Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again.         Expected Return Losses Choice A 50% chance to Lose 1000 50% chance to Lose 0 Expect to lose $500 over time   Choice B Lose 450   Lose $450 In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains. It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500, but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—500 dollars lost are equivalent to 500 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “reward/risk ratio”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your reward/risk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio. That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower reward/risk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher reward/risk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the reward/risk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. This will allow you to use the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. Traders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. dont forget- like subscribe Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 or higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Interested in developing your own strategy? On page 2 of our Building Confidence in Trading Guide, we help you identify your trading style and create your own trading plan. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 or higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Interested in developing your own strategy? On page 2 of our Building Confidence in Trading Guide, we help you identify your trading style and create your own trading plan. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 or higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Interested in developing your own strategy? On page 2 of our Building Confidence in Trading Guide, we help you identify your trading style and create your own trading plan. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com   Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a risk/reward ratio of 1:1 or higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 3/1/2014 to 3/31/2015. Interested in developing your own strategy? On page 2 of our Building Confidence in Trading Guide, we help you identify your trading style and create your own trading plan. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com     View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: Trading Leverage - A Real Look at How Traders May Use it Effectively Do the Hours I Trade Matter? Yes - Quite a Bit Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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