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pro4Xtrader

High Probability Forecasts

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Hello fellow traders!

 

This is my first post and I would like to start a trade journal where I can share my trading ideas where I am always open for any comments, feedback and suggestions.

 

The reason this thread called "high probability" is because I'll try to share only cherry picked setups here.

 

Hope this will be a hot and friendly thread!

 

Regards,

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Ok so lets get started, first is the EURUSD that looks very bearish still. There should be the final wave down of around 200 pips before/if it will start rising mid/long term. here is how I see it

15843nm.png

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Clearly there is a long term uptrend on GBPAUD that appears to be still valid. I am expecting rate to continue rising targeting 1.9737. Target should be reached either by 7th of May or 7th of June.

2lxifer.png

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US Oil – WTI just hit my upside target at 56 USD for a barrel. Not its an interesting level that should be monitored. Breakout above should trigger further extensions up while if rejected correction will take place.

2uzcvhv.jpg

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According to my analysis USDJPY eventually should move lower. However at the same time while the new cycle begins it could trigger a correctional move up for about 200-300 pips. Need to watch current support.

 

161ygxz.png

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Interesting setup on NZDJPY.

The long term picture looks pretty bearish, while in short term pair facing no resistance, while the support has been rejected. It could be a good long trade for approximately 100 pips potential gain. Soon we’ll find out.

o5njp0.png

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GBPUSD did break the support that implies that it will move lower eventually. However the cyclic analysis warns on the potential move higher first. So there are two trade setups, buy and sell … will be interesting to follow.

2h5i2yd.png

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For now USDJPY should continue moving up towards our target at 120.20. When/if hit I’d start looking for mid/long term sell opportunities as most pairs signaling on potential weak USD and strong JPY in the next weeks/months to come.

t5nfxt.png

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Across the board AUD could be losing value, fast. This would establish trend on most AUD pairs, especially GBPAUD, EURAUD and AUDJPY. But in this particular case here is EURAUD likely scenario… quite large upside potential.

2zg6s8y.png

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Crude Oil established a key support level at 54 Dollars for a Barrel. While at this stage new highs can be expected in the mid/long term, it is very likely that 54 level will be tested once again.

295tt7p.png

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NZDUSD in my view has confirmed the mid/long term downtrend. But now with the new cycle I think it will correct up slightly before the rally down begins. I’d be looking for selling opportunities around 0.76 area.

14jc3y8.png

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I think it is obvious that there is significant support at 54 level and significant resistance at 58. At this point with the double top on the lower timeframe WTI has all chances to correct back to 54, after witch we might see uptrend continuation.

1418aba.png

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NZDUSD entered the downtrend cycle that could last approximately 2 months. As a target I see 0.7270 area. As it currently holding the resistance, there could be a good entry point presented early next week.

5nj30j.png

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    • Actions for the 22nd.  I seem to be on a bad run, I'm really struggling with the opening minutes of the trades I'm taking and then get sucked into a little over trading.
    •   Date : 23rd January 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2019.



      FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are down from overnight highs, but still up 0.7 bp at 2.746%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.004%. Stock markets remained cautious during the Asian session. The Bank of Japan held policy steady, as expected, while further reducing its outlook for inflation. The resulting weakness in the Yen didn’t help stock markets and Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.60% and -0.14% respectively. The Hang Seng is also down -0.04%, despite mainland China markets initially moving higher as China’s central bank pumped liquidity into the banking system once again. Still, the measures are also a sign that officials are nervous about the slowdown in the economy and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.24% and -0.13%. The bank offered around 258 bln Yuan (USD 38 bln) to banks through its medium term lending tool. Markets continue to question the progress in the US-Sino trade talks, even though White House adviser Lawrence Kudlow said that the trade talks are still on and the story about cancelled preparatory meetings was “not true, there was never any meeting. We are moving toward negotiations.” The negotiations next week will be “very, very important” and “determinative”. Meanwhile, there are the first signs of a possible way out of the US government shutdown. Markets remain easily spooked, but appear to have already priced in a lot of risk last year and US stock futures are moving higher after yesterday’s sell off. Oil prices are trading at USD 53.27 per barrel. Charts of the Day

      Main Macro Events Today Canadian Retail Sales – After Wholesale Sales plummeted yesterday, Canadian Retail Sales are expected to have also declined by 0.4% m/m, with core Retail Sales (ex autos) expected to have declined by 0.6%. World Economic Forum at Davos –The second day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The index is expected to have remained at a sub-zero level, standing at -2 after the -8 in the December release. Support and Resistance Levels
       

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Eyes The 109.88 Resistance Zone And Beyond USDJPY eyes the 109.88 resistance zone beyond as it looks to resume its upside pressure. On the upside, resistance comes in at 110.00 level. A turn above here will turn attention to the 110.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 111.00 level if the earlier resistance is invalidated out. The next resistance resides at the 111.50. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 109.50 level where a break will target the 109.00 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 108.50 level and then lower the 108.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further upside pressure on corrective recovery.  
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