NFP Number and Dow Jones Reaction

[tradingwizzard 10]

it seems that nobody knows how to interpret data anymore....

 

let's see TL members on NFP and Dow Jones this Friday

 

will Dow close Friday positive if NFP beats estimates or not?

 

I would say yes....

 

TW

Edited February 6, 2014 by tradingwizzard

[MightyMouse 12]

A favorable NFP will pop the s&p back over 1800.

[Mysticforex 13]

Yes. correlations and reactions are coming back more to how they were say 5 years ago.

[jpennybags 11]

Technically, the market is due an oversold bounce. A beat on the NFP would certainly fuel that. If one trusts the ADP numbers, there may be some question if a beat on the NFP is likely. If market expectations are correct and the number comes in at 175 - 180K that is still just a bandaid for the horrid number in December, but it would still allow the FED to continue the reduction in QE.

 

I don't think that NFP or QE is what is driving this correction. I would also think that a rally on an NFP beat will get sold in the following week. I love trading to the downside, it may just be that's my bias raising it's ugly head (Ha!). We shall see.

 

As always, my plan is to play it as it comes... 5 minutes at a time.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Technically, the market is due an oversold bounce. A beat on the NFP would certainly fuel that. If one trusts the ADP numbers, there may be some question if a beat on the NFP is likely. If market expectations are correct and the number comes in at 175 - 180K that is still just a bandaid for the horrid number in December, but it would still allow the FED to continue the reduction in QE.

 

I don't think that NFP or QE is what is driving this correction. I would also think that a rally on an NFP beat will get sold in the following week. I love trading to the downside, it may just be that's my bias raising it's ugly head (Ha!). We shall see.

 

As always, my plan is to play it as it comes... 5 minutes at a time.

 

nice answer, gave it a like .....

 

I just want to add that if the NFP is missing, won't markets jump on the long side saying Fed must do something?

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

A favorable NFP will pop the s&p back over 1800.

 

even though I am bullish equities, I don't think it is that easy to travel.....then again, it depends of the number of course :Q)

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

Yes. correlations and reactions are coming back more to how they were say 5 years ago.

 

actually I'm not sure about that anymore...if anything I would say correlations do not exist anymore....or, to put it more frankly, they exist or are valid until they don't....and at that moment stop losses are triggered

 

TW

[jpennybags 11]

nice answer, gave it a like .....

 

I just want to add that if the NFP is missing, won't markets jump on the long side saying Fed must do something?

 

TW

 

I think the market read is that the FED is committed to the taper. If it were a huge miss... say like December... that may drive that kind of speculation (who knows). As usual, the market would have to bring on some more misery to get the point across. Any miss on the number (seems to me) would weigh in for the sell side.

[tradingwizzard 10]

I think the market read is that the FED is committed to the taper. If it were a huge miss... say like December... that may drive that kind of speculation (who knows). As usual, the market would have to bring on some more misery to get the point across. Any miss on the number (seems to me) would weigh in for the sell side.

 

well, only one day to go and we shall see...

 

TW

[MightyMouse 12]

even though I am bullish equities, I don't think it is that easy to travel.....then again, it depends of the number of course :Q)

 

TW

 

The number won't make a difference. It is going higher. The market wants you to think what you are thinking.

 

A lot of people got short today.

[tradingwizzard 10]

like mentioned at the start of the thread, no one really know what data means anymore...good data is bad data, bad data is good data, who the heck knows...

 

so NFP missed and sent Dow +165 points higher...excellent

 

correlations suck

 

TW

[jpennybags 11]

like mentioned at the start of the thread, no one really know what data means anymore...good data is bad data, bad data is good data, who the heck knows...

 

so NFP missed and sent Dow +165 points higher...excellent

 

correlations suck

 

TW

"Bizzaro World"... trade it as it happens. Had a good day today (a good week actually)... nice to see volatility back.

[MightyMouse 12]

like mentioned at the start of the thread, no one really know what data means anymore...good data is bad data, bad data is good data, who the heck knows...

 

so NFP missed and sent Dow +165 points higher...excellent

 

correlations suck

 

TW

 

Correlations work perfectly. Unfortunately, the things you want to be correlated didn't turn out to be correlated. Sort of like concluding that your neighbor walking the dog in the morning has some causal effect on the sun rising, because they do tend to occur at the same time.

[Patuca 13]

Correlations work perfectly. Unfortunately, the things you want to be correlated didn't turn out to be correlated. Sort of like concluding that your neighbor walking the dog in the morning has some causal effect on the sun rising, because they do tend to occur at the same time.

:rofl: :rofl: LOL LOL

[tradingwizzard 10]

Correlations work perfectly. Unfortunately, the things you want to be correlated didn't turn out to be correlated. Sort of like concluding that your neighbor walking the dog in the morning has some causal effect on the sun rising, because they do tend to occur at the same time.

 

excellent response ...instead of explaining something that I miss, you just blah blah some stuff.....you must be a great trader sharing your knowledge like that

 

TW

[MightyMouse 12]

excellent response ...instead of explaining something that I miss, you just blah blah some stuff.....you must be a great trader sharing your knowledge like that

 

TW

 

I know how to take money from the market. I am not a great trader and wasn't trying to be smug.

 

I have no idea how to determine what you might have missed, because I have no idea how you arrived at your conclusion. In my mind we were looking at the same market, so we must have been looking at the same things. You might need someone like Rande Howe to help you arrive at different conclusions and not someone like me.

[tradingwizzard 10]

I know how to take money from the market. I am not a great trader and wasn't trying to be smug.

 

I have no idea how to determine what you might have missed, because I have no idea how you arrived at your conclusion. In my mind we were looking at the same market, so we must have been looking at the same things. You might need someone like Rande Howe to help you arrive at different conclusions and not someone like me.

 

the idea was about correlations between NFP and Dow....your answer was about dogs and Sun if I remember correctly....I may not remember correctly though, because I read it and find it so lame I moved on to something else

 

regards,

 

TW

[MightyMouse 12]

the idea was about correlations between NFP and Dow....your answer was about dogs and Sun if I remember correctly....I may not remember correctly though, because I read it and find it so lame I moved on to something else

 

regards,

 

TW

 

I'll help you out.

 

You thought the direction of the dow would be impacted, somehow, by the nfp number.

 

I thought the market would go higher no matter what the NFP number was.

 

Benevolence ended.

[jpennybags 11]

I'll help you out.

 

You thought the direction of the dow would be impacted, somehow, by the nfp number.

 

I thought the market would go higher no matter what the NFP number was.

 

Benevolence ended.

 

Help me out... like I need it (ha).

 

Certainly there was a technical bounce due. It may well be that this is not a correction but just another BTFD situation (it's really too soon to call this a correction). I trade the TF contract. It was clear that the sell side was exhausted (for a time). I'm sure that was evident in the ES and the YM as well. The TF buy side was not impressive... I would've liked to have seen it trade into the 1117 area (from a technical perspective, it was lack luster). The YM and the ES were a little more aggressive. I must say... I don't know (nothing new for me).

 

What do you think... "a correction" is in the works, or do we turn and go higher? I'll even give you an out... "does it matter?"

[MightyMouse 12]

Help me out... like I need it (ha).

 

Certainly there was a technical bounce due. It may well be that this is not a correction but just another BTFD situation (it's really too soon to call this a correction). I trade the TF contract. It was clear that the sell side was exhausted (for a time). I'm sure that was evident in the ES and the YM as well. The TF buy side was not impressive... I would've liked to have seen it trade into the 1117 area (from a technical perspective, it was lack luster). The YM and the ES were a little more aggressive. I must say... I don't know (nothing new for me).

 

What do you think... "a correction" is in the works, or do we turn and go higher? I'll even give you an out... "does it matter?"

 

I think it corrected. I think the low was tested. I think es will resume it's climb to newer highs. Most or all other indices will follow or lead as the case may be.

 

It seems to be that there was a lot of buying below and there continues to be a lot of shorting which will lead to low volume upmoves which tend to be misleading and confounding.

 

There is no known good reason for the market to continue lower. Tapering is not a good reason for the market to go down. I would argue just the opposite.

[jpennybags 11]

I think it corrected. I think the low was tested. I think es will resume it's climb to newer highs. Most or all other indices will follow or lead as the case may be.

 

It seems to be that there was a lot of buying below and there continues to be a lot of shorting which will lead to low volume upmoves which tend to be misleading and confounding.

 

There is no known good reason for the market to continue lower. Tapering is not a good reason for the market to go down. I would argue just the opposite.

 

I would agree... "the taper" makes no difference. Everyone has known that the taper was coming, evident and necessary (actually relieved that it happened). I watched the tepid low volume buying on Friday afternoon... no sellers. Interesting to see how next week shapes up. I think we will have some contention at higher levels (what else is new... that's what makes a market).

[tradingwizzard 10]

I would agree... "the taper" makes no difference. Everyone has known that the taper was coming, evident and necessary (actually relieved that it happened). I watched the tepid low volume buying on Friday afternoon... no sellers. Interesting to see how next week shapes up. I think we will have some contention at higher levels (what else is new... that's what makes a market).

 

tend to agree with you here.....equities seem to be supported by good GDP numbers in Europe.....supposedly

 

TW

[MightyMouse 12]

tend to agree with you here.....equities seem to be supported by good GDP numbers in Europe.....supposedly

 

TW

 

Looks like the good GDP numbers not only supported the market, but it pushed the market to a new high too.

[tradingwizzard 10]

Looks like the good GDP numbers not only supported the market, but it pushed the market to a new high too.

 

I am quite curious to see next week's NFP and equities reaction...it seems that whatever the fundamental news, equities are being bought anyways....so coming to the Dow 100,00 thread

 

TW

[tradingwizzard 10]

NFP beats....stocks to the moon?

 

TW