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humbled

Humbled Trading Log

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Again, I think you need to concentrate on "doing business" in the areas of better risk/reward. Stay away from the small stuff. Use what Thales is teaching you to identify those places.

 

Enigmatics,

 

I agree with almost every comments you have said to me :) . I am just not sure yet how to avoid the choppy ones :crap:

 

Humbled

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Enigmatics,

 

I agree with almost every comments you have said to me :) . I am just not sure yet how to avoid the choppy ones :crap:

 

Humbled

 

Obviously to only want to take a trade where there is less "congestion" between your previously drawn "levels" as well as supply/demand lines. Then obviously understanding if the market is ranging or trending .... can't forget proper candlestick analysis.

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Obviously to only want to take a trade where there is less "congestion" between your previously drawn "levels" as well as supply/demand lines. Then obviously understanding if the market is ranging or trending .... can't forget proper candlestick analysis.

 

No need to throw "candlestick analysis" here too.

 

This is about highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows. It is about what price does when it revisits those levels where demand and supply swapped upper hands in the past.

 

If you go to the Reading Charts thread, and look at my post #1462, you will see a chart.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-markets/6151-reading-charts-real-time-183.html#post81324

 

I direct your attention to the last paragraph of my comments on that chart. Someone had asked me about trading a "pin bar." My answer was it would depend upon the order in which that bar's high and low printed relative to its close. This is because price is not "bars" or "candlesticks" or whatever discreet graphical technique you use to visualize trading activity. Price exists only as the activity of folks buying and selling to one another. As Db would say, "price is continuous," i.e. it is a flow of activity and not a batch of discreet bundles of transactions separated into "bars" or "candlesticks."

 

As such, what matters is using that information to determine who has the upper hand, and how can I join them?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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No need to throw "candlestick analysis" here too.

 

This is about highs and lows, higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows. It is about what price does when it revisits those levels where demand and supply swapped upper hands in the past.

 

If you go to the Reading Charts thread, and look at my post #1462, you will see a chart.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-markets/6151-reading-charts-real-time-183.html#post81324

 

I direct your attention to the last paragraph of my comments on that chart. Someone had asked me about trading a "pin bar." My answer was it would depend upon the order in which that bar's high and low printed relative to its close. This is because price is not "bars" or "candlesticks" or whatever discreet graphical technique you use to visualize trading activity. Price exists only as the activity of folks buying and selling to one another. As Db would say, "price is continuous," i.e. it is a flow of activity and not a batch of discreet bundles of transactions separated into "bars" or "candlesticks."

 

As such, what matters is using that information to determine who has the upper hand, and how can I join them?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales,

 

 

I understand that structure as it is the same as a 123 pattern.

 

Humbled

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Note the added extensions. I was reading a thread from previous work of Thales and noticed he taught his daughter extensions using fibs. I used the -23.6% fib.

 

Thales please let me know if you believe this added piece is needed or should be left out. I have a absence of levels above.

5aa711f069405_7-6-201312-30-35PM.thumb.png.dada9934516f9627bf45d9d4dee568ee.png

Edited by humbled

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Note the added extensions. I was reading a thread from previous work of Thales and noticed he taught his daughter extensions using fibs. I used the -23.6% fib.

 

Thales please let me know if you believe this added piece needed or should be left out. I have a absence of levels above.

 

I see 46, 52, 54, 74, 87 and no need for fibs.

 

You have everything you need. Prior highs and prior lows, the immediately prior session's high and low, and the overall trend for context - is it up, down, or sideways. If it is in a trend, has it been consolidating for a day or two? Then look for a potential trend day where the market closes on the extreme in favor of the trend. Has the market been forming a line? Then where is it relative to the high and low of that range? Is it moving toward a test of the high or low (even is a trading range, there are swings from one extreme of the range to the other that can last a few sessions).

 

If the market gaps up and trades down, look for a potential long somewhere between the prior day's high and it's close, vice versa for a market hat gaps down and trades up.

 

If it gaps up or down and trends in the direction of the gap, then buy/sell an opening range break or a pullback (assuming you are at all times aware of potential S/R that could foil the trade).

 

Stop looking for the non-existent missing piece. You need to work on yourself.

 

Plan your day ahead of time. What are you going to do if price gaps down below yesterday's low? What will you be looking for? What if price gaps open higher? What will get you short? What would get you long?

 

You have every tool you need. You need no more trips to Trader's Depot. You need to watch and learn how price behaves as it makes its way from S to R and back again. You will make mistakes. You will have losses. But you can do this, but only if you focus on price itself, and how it acts at S/R in the context of its overall trend.

 

Plan your day ahead of time. It will relax you and reduce the stress you feel from the uncertainty of not having planned your day.

 

See you Monday after the bell.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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I see 46, 52, 54, 74, 87 and no need for fibs.

 

You have everything you need. Prior highs and prior lows, the immediately prior session's high and low, and the overall trend for context - is it up, down, or sideways. If it is in a trend, has it been consolidating for a day or two? Then look for a potential trend day where the market closes on the extreme in favor of the trend. Has the market been forming a line? Then where is it relative to the high and low of that range? Is it moving toward a test of the high or low (even is a trading range, there are swings from one extreme of the range to the other that can last a few sessions).

 

If the market gaps up and trades down, look for a potential long somewhere between the prior day's high and it's close, vice versa for a market hat gaps down and trades up.

 

If it gaps up or down and trends in the direction of the gap, then buy/sell an opening range break or a pullback (assuming you are at all times aware of potential S/R that could foil the trade).

 

Stop looking for the non-existent missing piece. You need to work on yourself.

 

Plan your day ahead of time. What are you going to do if price gaps down below yesterday's low? What will you be looking for? What if price gaps open higher? What will get you short? What would get you long?

 

You have every tool you need. You need no more trips to Trader's Depot. You need to watch and learn how price behaves as it makes its way from S to R and back again. You will make mistakes. You will have losses. But you can do this, but only if you focus on price itself, and how it acts at S/R in the context of its overall trend.

 

Plan your day ahead of time. It will relax you and reduce the stress you feel from the uncertainty of not having planned your day.

 

See you Monday after the bell.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales,

 

I did not want to rush to respond to this post. I am still digesting the value of your comments. I appreciate the help. I have killed the Fib use other than the 50% line.

 

 

I am working up a plan for tomorrow. Can you suggest an opening range time period to use for my plan?

 

 

Humbled and very thankful for the help

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Stop looking for the non-existent missing piece. You need to work on yourself

 

I'm a relative newcomer to this trading game, and I mean no offense to Thales, but it does seem to me that humbled is missing a piece. When I read his posts and look at his own explanations for his trades, I am reminded of the following passage from DbPhoenix's essay, "How To Do It":

 

"If he focuses on setups and patterns as gimmicks rather than as manifestations of changes in the balance of buying and selling pressure, then he blocks the process through which he would otherwise understand it and profit from it."

 

I do not see that humbled looks at the market as buyers and sellers looking for a trade. I do not see that he views the market with an awareness of the ever present functioning of the law of supply and demand. I do agree that other than that, he has everything he needs. I use a 2B set up, but I simply call it a double top or a double bottom. I use the 123 set up, but I simply call it a lower high or a higher low. I use supply and demand lines to clue me in to when the market may be in for a change of pace. I use support and resistance as price levels where I look for a trade. What I have that I think humbled is missing is a sense of what Thales referred to above in his post about candlesticks: A sense of the flow or continuous nature of the market as the constant shifting in the balance, or lack thereof, between supply and demand, those who wish to sell and those who wish to buy.

 

As I said, I'm new, just coming up on a year since I decided I would try to learn to day trade, so take what I said with whatever size grain of whatever substance you might think it is worth. Whatever it is, the op is missing something. Whatever it is, I hope he finds it.

 

Good luck!

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I'm a relative newcomer to this trading game, and I mean no offense to Thales, but it does seem to me that humbled is missing a piece. When I read his posts and look at his own explanations for his trades, I am reminded of the following passage from DbPhoenix's essay, "How To Do It":

 

"If he focuses on setups and patterns as gimmicks rather than as manifestations of changes in the balance of buying and selling pressure, then he blocks the process through which he would otherwise understand it and profit from it."

 

I do not see that humbled looks at the market as buyers and sellers looking for a trade. I do not see that he views the market with an awareness of the ever present functioning of the law of supply and demand. I do agree that other than that, he has everything he needs. I use a 2B set up, but I simply call it a double top or a double bottom. I use the 123 set up, but I simply call it a lower high or a higher low. I use supply and demand lines to clue me in to when the market may be in for a change of pace. I use support and resistance as price levels where I look for a trade. What I have that I think humbled is missing is a sense of what Thales referred to above in his post about candlesticks: A sense of the flow or continuous nature of the market as the constant shifting in the balance, or lack thereof, between supply and demand, those who wish to sell and those who wish to buy.

 

As I said, I'm new, just coming up on a year since I decided I would try to learn to day trade, so take what I said with whatever size grain of whatever substance you might think it is worth. Whatever it is, the op is missing something. Whatever it is, I hope he finds it.

 

Good luck!

 

 

40Draws,

 

Thank you for your input. Maybe you can share your view on how you read the market supply and demand beyond the lines we draw. Beyond support and resistance. Beyond the tools that we both use. You are suggesting there is another layer. I am not aware of how to detect it.

 

Thanks,

 

Humbled

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You are suggesting there is another layer. I am not aware of how to detect it.

 

Thanks,

 

Humbled

 

I can't tell you how to detect it. It is a sense of what is going on that you must develop. Here is the link to DbPhoenix's essay "How To Do It." I guess my advice would be to read that essay, and take seriously the task under the heading "Hire yourself to do a job."

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/15896-how-do.html#179656

 

"The job is just to sit there and watch the bars form, to watch the buying and selling waves, the pokes and prods and feelers cast by buyers and sellers looking for a trade, not to create or test a strategy, not to make money, not to learn the "secrets" or the "tricks", just to develop a sensitivity to buying and selling pressure. No indicators, no MAs, no nothing but price bars/points and volume bars."

 

I did essentially that by doing a lot of market replay. I have traded stocks exclusively since I started, and specifically trade stocks that gap open higher. By using market replay, I was able to watch many "days" each and every evening.

 

I just started trading futures on Friday, taking my first trade on the NQ. I did a few days of replay leading up to that trade, in addition to going back through several weeks and doing a manual "bar by bar" left to right reading.

 

I was lucky in that my first exposure to trading literature was Wyckoff's Studies in Tape Reading, which is also published as The Day Trader's Bible. I also stumbled upon TL.com and DbPhoenix's posts. I bought his eBook, and it was a great help. I say I was lucky because I started out thinking in terms of supply and demand and I understood the artificial nature of bar intervals. I read your post a few days ago where you said the one minute timeframe was too fast or too noisy for you. I think that is a big tell that you do not view the market as an auction market. I find that it is easier to gauge buying and selling pressure on a shorter bar interval than a longer.

 

Here is a link to a copy of Studies in Tape Reading:

 

http://cdn3.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/131/6500d1211046697-introduction-dtb-1919.pdf

 

The "layer" you ask about is supply and demand. It is not a set-up that I can spell out for you. The elements or forces are described and explained in Wyckoff and DbPhoenix. You need first to acquaint yourself with those elements, and then "hire yourself" to get to work learning to understand and recognize these forces in action with one another.

 

Good Luck!

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"The job is just to sit there and watch the bars form, to watch the buying and selling waves, the pokes and prods and feelers cast by buyers and sellers looking for a trade, not to create or test a strategy, not to make money, not to learn the "secrets" or the "tricks", just to develop a sensitivity to buying and selling pressure. No indicators, no MAs, no nothing but price bars/points and volume bars."

 

Hi there 40draws,

 

I remember having read a post by Db where suggested that if a trader really wants to learn to read price, he or she should just sit and watch a line chart all day long "to develop a sensitivity to buying and selling pressure."

 

However, I believe he also said "but the trader won't do it."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Hi there 40draws,

 

I remember having read a post by Db where suggested that if a trader really wants to learn to read price, he or she should just sit and watch a line chart all day long "to develop a sensitivity to buying and selling pressure."

 

However, I believe he also said "but the trader won't do it."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I have done that and will do so again. I never extracted the feel but will work on Ninja replays again.

 

Humbled

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Whatever "feel" I am missing is not due to being lazy. I can assure you I give this my all.

 

 

Humbled

 

Did I miss something? I don't see where anyone said that your work ethic was the source of your difficulty.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Did I miss something? I don't see where anyone said that your work ethic was the source of your difficulty.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales,

 

No I just wanted you to know that I did try the idea of watching price before like DB had suggested. I did not avoid it or skip it. I took as many steps as I could on my own before asking for help.

You did not say anything , I just wanted to be clear that the missing "feel" has been something I have been searching for.

 

 

Humbled

 

PS. I am trying a 1 second chart as the 1 minute is not speaking to. I put up a line on close chart and I will keep it on watch.

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A 1 second chart? Man that would be too intense for me personally.

 

I agree though that this shouldn't be about candles and price. It should be about understanding the flow of supply/demand.

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This is what I could see today on a LineOnClose Chart.

 

No magical experiences Just price moving to test levels. Chop and more chop.

 

Humbled

 

I see several places where a long would have been called for. Can you find them too?

 

Here are my levels for tomorrow.

 

I know you didn't ask me, but if you were to ask me what I think of that chart I'd have to say that it looks more like something intended to induce a stroke rather than serve as a trading tool ;)

 

I do not trade the ES emini, but I took a look at it tonight and did a little exercise to see what I would be looking at tomorrow.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=36538&stc=1&d=1373336247

 

I know you didn't ask, and I know I've not been at this as long as most people here, but I have to say that the last few days, the charts you've posted look like you're going backwards. :confused:

ES.thumb.JPG.8ca8a3087b6f5057ad52da8fb93cf03b.JPG

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Thales,

 

No I just wanted you to know that I did try the idea of watching price before like DB had suggested. I did not avoid it or skip it. I took as many steps as I could on my own before asking for help.

You did not say anything , I just wanted to be clear that the missing "feel" has been something I have been searching for.

 

 

Humbled

 

PS. I am trying a 1 second chart as the 1 minute is not speaking to. I put up a line on close chart and I will keep it on watch.

 

I would summarise DB's "plan" post like this:

 

1. Stop trading

2. Observe price

3. Notice repeatable behaviour

4. Write plan base on (3)

5. Test plan

6. Make adjustments

7. Trade plan

 

Is this what you have done?

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I would summarise DB's "plan" post like this:

 

1. Stop trading

2. Observe price

3. Notice repeatable behaviour

4. Write plan base on (3)

5. Test plan

6. Make adjustments

7. Trade plan

 

Is this what you have done?

 

 

TradeRunner,

 

I did stop trading for weeks to observe price and did replays. That was step #1&2

 

I never extracted any "feel" but i did notice patterns like the 2b, double bottom. H&S and such.

 

I did write several plans to trade the right shoulder after a spike down and the 2b's as I was tried to buy the area being held as support and the spike downs would chop me to death.

 

Even with those adjustments I still came out with so many losses I admit I felt exhausted from the pain and moved to longer time frames.

 

I think the frustration got me. Maybe I did not do enough time with it. I can tell you I never felt anything other than watching the reactions and praying once I entered they did not spike outside the range to take me out.

 

Humbled

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    • Date : 2nd December 2021. Market Update – December 2- Sentiment swings on Omicron news. Powell reiterates Hawkishness, First case of Omicron confirmed in US – Stocks tank again under key technical levels, Yields slip again, USD mixed. Erdogan sacks Fin Min – TRY new all-time lows, Apple iPhone 13 demand weakens, GSK anti-viral drug remains active vs. Omicron   USD (USDIndex 96.08) rotates through 96.00 due to lack of firm data regarding Omicron, markets reamin on edge. Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -1.83% USA500 -1.18% (-54pts) 4513 (opened the day +1.1%) and broke 50-day MA first time since October 14 & USA30 off 461 pts and under 200-day MA first time since July 13 2020. US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.40% before recovering to 1.434% now. Asian Markets – Asian markets have traded mixed. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.5% and -0.7% respectively. The ASX lost -0.1%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.2% and 0.3%. Shenzen and Shanghai Comp are slightly lower though as officials seem eager to close a loophole used by tech firms to list abroad. USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.50 yesterday – recovered to test $66.35 today – awaiting OPEC+ meeting later. Gold Up day yesterday but remains pressured testing $1775 now FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.70, back to 113.31 now, EURUSD now 1.1312 & Cable pressured 1.3192 low yesterday – 1.3275 now. European Open – The 10-year Bund future is up 30 ticks, outperforming versus Treasuries, which remain pressured by the hawkish turn at the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield has lifted 3.0 bp overnight, but at 1.43% remains far below the levels seen ahead of the Omicron scare, which the WHO seemed to try and play down somewhat. DAX and FTSE 100 down -1.1% and -0.9% respectively in catch up trade with the slide on Wall Street yesterday, while US futures have found a footing and are posting gains of around 0.6-0.8%. Today – EZ Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Fed’s Bostic, Quarles, Daly, ECB’s Panetta, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.77%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 87.85 yesterday, today a rally to 88.60. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 but rising, RSI 56 & rising, OB. H1 ATR 0.188, Daily 0.98. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • You should never give in to the rumors as it could lead you to bankruptcy if it isn't true.
    • Yeah, and you should never stop learning. If you wish to survive in the Forex Market, the only way to do it is by learning all the time.
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