Trade Discussion and Analysis

This thread is for discussing charts and explaining trade entries/exits. People are free to post any kind of chart, with or without annotations and engage in rational discussion. I am hoping enough people will open up and show their entries/exits on a chart and explain the reasoning behind them. Feel free to ask questions.

I'll explain the reasoning behind me long trade posted live here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/35841-post5.html

The entry was long at 12930 on the DOW (all prices are quoted from the futures). First of all, it's important to have context. Yesterday's context made me look for the long side, instead of short side.

First of all, going back a couple of days: +/- 12780 was an important level. On more than one occasion:

- on May 7 and May 8 that was the low of the day, price finding support there

- on May 9, it provided resistance and supply coming in there, effectively turning price around for that day

- on May 12, it's where the market opened

- yesterday, we had a selling climax and a re-test on that level

This is a chart of yesterday. I went long on the re-test, but that doesn't matter very much, because I don't hold my positions overnight.

As a result of that, I only stayed in the long trade till the end of the day and missed the run-up that happened on the open today. Better wishing you were in, than wishing you were out though.

More importantly, with a selling climax and strength in the background, I was looking to take a long position today, preferably at the best price possible, near 840-850. Unfortunately, they didn't exactly make it easy for me, price opened with a very strong push upwards.

Most people would then be looking for a short around 920-930 (resistance). I know it's exactly what I would have done in my early days. One reason is frustration of having missed the earlier entry, the other reason is wanting to take a trade. But I've learnt to control that - at least to some extent, still more learning to do!

So I waited for a retracement where I could enter. There's less potential, but at least it is trading in the right direction. My entry was at 12930 when resistance turned into support. See chart.

13030 is the next resistance level, but 970 is another hurdle before we can think of that (look at May 4, 5 and 6). I'm not getting too optimistic, especially since we are - as I type this - not exactly moving higher much and volume is thin. But then again, it's lunchtime...

A very simple rejection of the highs with weakness on the last leg up after 36 hours up movement.

Trend about to be broken and both pushed thrice at the highs.

Unfortunately I was asleep to catch the reversal optimum point on the S/R and uptrend but ces't la vie, 60 pips anyhow.

So albeit late, reversed on the bounce off S/R and trendline cross on both pairs. The highs from yesterday are in view and the line chart shows the congestion between the two levels. ATM, its 50/50 apart from the fact we are in an uptrend and the EJ has broken the highs already...

Another rejection and break of the uptrend will cancel all this and SAR again but thats trading!

Unfortunately I was too eager with my trendlines and watching EJ made me exit and SAR that GJ position only to take a loss and SAR again. Must pay more attention to what I draw! :crap:

Hi FW,

 

Did you have 920-930 highlighted as Resistance premarket or did you gauge it intramarket after price stalled there momentarily?

The blue lines you see were drawn from left to right, meaning they were there before the day opened. So yes, I had it highlighted premarket.

Welcome smb

I don't know if this is the right word ('preclusion') but I've often realized that - when thinking of taking a trade - one should think if he would reverse if he were in a position.

Usually helps in taking counter-trend trades which don't offer the necessary potential to warrant the risk.

my long on GJ this evening.

A bounce from support and cross of the ST trend. The strength of the down move does not convince me we are heading far down tonight so in for the long, I have an SAR level below my stop so ride the overnight move and see if we break back down tomorrow or head up for 205.

All that said, it and EJ have just woken up and dropped so this may be over before I finish typing!

Apologies for thread integrity ... Wasp, here are the pictures, first of channels which I personally prefer to trendlines for displaying trend integrity and second of 3 line fans for potential trend change.

With channels I started off with andrews babson but ended up using the left hand side to define the slope for the right hand side.

.

Wasp I posted those alternative line structures in the wrong thread (but can't delete it and can't seem to find a "complain button" to get the mods to move it) so here's the link:

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f130/live-fx-trades-3848.html#post36161

Cheers Nine, I'l see if I can get soultrader or someone to juggle the posts about tomorrow.

There seems to be more then my brain is getting around atm so will reply in the morning.

I didn't post this on the Wyckoff thread because only one person there trades the NQ intraday. And at this point it's hardly live. But no one else mentioned it anywhere. And it's a picture-perfect Wyckoff setup, and I hate to see it drift by unnoticed. So.....

1950 is support, and even though the volume on the test is only slightly lighter than on the "climax", it's not heavier, either. Then afterward, a hinge. The entry, in order to avoid whipsaws and feints, is on volume just above 1970, five bars past the point of the hinge.

Too bad these don't come along more often.

Wasp I posted those alternative line structures in the wrong thread (but can't delete it and can't seem to find a "complain button" to get the mods to move it) so here's the link:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f130/live-fx-trades-3848.html#post36161

Kiwi - I moved that post you linked to. You can use the big yellow "S" to report your own post to a mod and explain why (move, delete duplicate, etc.).

I didn't post this on the Wyckoff thread because only one person there trades the NQ intraday. And at this point it's hardly live. But no one else mentioned it anywhere. And it's a picture-perfect Wyckoff setup, and I hate to see it drift by unnoticed. So.....

 

1950 is support, and even though the volume on the test is only slightly lighter than on the "climax", it's not heavier, either. Then afterward, a hinge. The entry, in order to avoid whipsaws and feints, is on volume just above 1970, five bars past the point of the hinge.

 

Too bad these don't come along more often.

Thanks for contributing here. But you mention intraday trading, yet you post a 30-minute chart of the last couple of days... Anyway, you seem to be comparing volume from different days. I've often found it difficult to do so, because Fridays and pre-holiday days for example sometimes have a tendency to 'drift' on lower volume. Unless I'm taking into account the daily picture, it seems difficult to reconcile the overnight/premarket action with any possible pattern that comes up. You just ignore it then?

Setting that aside, it looks a rather late entry, comparing what Wyckoff tells about entering on the selling climax and adding on the re-test...

If this was an intraday chart, I would consider the earlier rise in volume (green dot) as another possible entry signal. Followed by a "no supply" bar on very low volume with no effect, after which price rises on increasing volume.

While days appear to be discrete, they are in fact the result of everything that's gone before, even though the details may not be immediately apparent. Therefore, an intraday setup can and usually is the result of something that's happened the previous day, or even the previous week. The "30m" display is for consolidation only. A 1m chart would show the same thing, only with 30 times more bars. And it would of course be much wider. As to the overnite, sometimes it matters and sometimes it doesn't. If in doubt, plot a CVB chart. In this case, the CVB chart and the time bar chart are the same (if you have a potential hinge, plot both; it's important to know whether or not volume is declining during the formation of the hinge).

As for being late, the test occurred pre-market, and not everybody wants to enter trades then, even if they can. In any case, the immediate hinge may stop out the trader who's trading tight. And even if he has a wide stop, he may not be comfortable sitting there and waiting throughout the hinge (the perfect scenario works out only in hindsight). He may elect instead to exit and stand aside until the market decides what it wants to do.

As for entering at the apex of the hinge, that is an option ("no supply" is VSA, and I'd rather not get into anything having to do with VSA), but since there has already been one attempt to take price down and another attempt to take price up, both of which were faded, the trader may want to wait until the market has shown its hand. In this case, waiting for the volume -- i.e., the professional interest -- makes it a much higher-probability trade. I should also point out that your green dot is placed at a point which is shortly before the close, and not everyone has the cojones to enter such a trade at such a time.

Apologies for thread integrity ... Wasp, here are the pictures, first of channels which I personally prefer to trendlines for displaying trend integrity and second of 3 line fans for potential trend change.

 

With channels I started off with andrews babson but ended up using the left hand side to define the slope for the right hand side.

.

Hi Kiwi,

First up, nice charts! Who do you use?

interesting charts. Are they all self drawn lines? Who is Andrew Babson? Does he mind you using him!?!!

Whilst I can see what the lines are telling you, I can't tell how you'd use them specifically?

Prey tell............

I should also point out that your green dot is placed at a point which is shortly before the close, and not everyone has the cojones to enter such a trade at such a time.

True, that's why I was hypothesizing "if this were an intraday chart"...

Price hovering at resistance (13030).

Shorts eyed with a solid TL break.

Is there such a thing as free intraday YM futures charting? I have cash on metatrader but would be good to follow you guys and watch the movements...

Is there such a thing as free intraday YM futures charting? I have cash on metatrader but would be good to follow you guys and watch the movements...

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,432,00.html

Only one week left before they remove it though...

It's your mission to find something similar! Let me know when you do.

I have this atm...

Price hovering at resistance (13030).

 

had a short signal pre-market, plan was to wait till the open, but train just departed south without me :\