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  1. I figured it out. It turns out this trust will cease it's operations once 9.1 MMBOE is produced and 90% of profits from the sale are distributed among the shareholders of the trust. That's estimated to be in March of 2015, and when the estimated value of the stock will drop to zero. My question is, with the stock price valuation looking to be zero this time next year, would this be a great position to short? If a trust ceases operations and the stock drops to zero or ceases to exist, and I buy it at $5.25 a share, would that mean I would profit $5.25/per share, or would I lose all my money because the trust ceased to exist?:missy:
  2. Hey guys, I'm in the process of formulating my trading plan (as I watch gold and silver prices skyrocket - thank you Mr. Putin ), and I was interested what was in other people's trading plans when it came to when to take your profits and when to cut your losses? I've read that you should let your profits run, and cut your losses quickly. I'm trying to do swing trading, so how soon should I know if a position is a loser or not? I've heard you should trade on catalysts. Anyways, Had a few questions on a few positions I have open: When Should I Take My Profits? I have is KBH (K & B Home Builders) It's risen about 10% in the last month with the housing report showing good data. I created a stop limit order with an activation price of $19.50 and a limit price of $19.40. For stop limit orders, should you leave a gap between the activation price and the limit price, or would you just do a stop market order? It looks like it may hit a resistance level at about $25/share. It just crossed the 50 Day SMA. At what point would you guys take profits? Would you take 10% now and be happy? Would you keep the stop limit order in place to guarantee a 5% return? Is there something else you would look for (a technical indicator or fundamental analysis item) that would make you take profits? Another position I've got is gold, and it has gained about 6% over the past few weeks. So maybe it'd be time to take profits on gold when things between Russia and the Ukraine settle down? When Would You Cut Your Losses? I mentioned WHX (whiting trust), which is an oil/gas consumables company that is depleting it's supplies and supposed to terminate in March 2015. I bought it at 5.75, and it's at 5.25 now, after just having paid $.55 as a dividend. I'm starting to think of this as a loser. Why? If it pays it's standard quarterly dividend from now through March of next year, that makes roughly $2.20-2.30 in dividends, and it's dividends have declined since the trust's inception. So the stock price will be worth squat at the end of that time period...meaning, you'll lose about 55% of the stocks original value ($5.75 minus the $2.85 it paid in dividends). Anyways, I'm thinking about switching sides, and shorting this stock. How do shorts handle dividends? Would I have had to pay $.55/share if I held a short position and the company issued that dividend? The only downside to this is if the trust finds some ridiculous oil reserves, and continues, but I don't really think that's possible. The claims are it's already used up 87% of it's life, and anything over 90% is a shaky bet. Looks like shorting is the way to go on this one, but what do you guys think?
  3. I'm looking at a company called Whiting USA Trust (WHX). The annual dividend is $2.14 - a 42.64% yield. EPS is about 2 and P/E is about 2.41x This is a company that has been around for more than six years, and has varied in price from about $22.50 to $3.75. Currently, it is trading at $5.08. The ex-div date on 2/14 paid $.55/share. The dividends have ranged from $.45/share to $.70/share, paid on a quarterly basis since the companies inception. Fundamentally, the company has zero debt, which is great, but it looks like the company total equity has been slowly dropping over the last 5 years. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% per year on average. Their retained earnings have been steady, and actually increased a fairly sizeable amount (+50%) over the last year. They're performance compared to their industry looks strong. My friend once told me that company's that offer dividends that have a ridiculous annual yield (>10%) typically do so because the company is weak and they want to drive the stock price up. Which begs the question. If a company has a fairly stable stock price, and is paying out 30-40% in dividends annually...why wouldn't everyone and their brother want to own that stock?
  4. Hi There Everyone! I've dabbled in day trading stocks, options, and even the forex off and on for a while now, and have never met with any real success. What I'm hoping to learn here is consistency and discipline to build a smart automated trading platform.. Looking for trades to capitalize on over a week to a few months. I want to combine my love of programming and make some serious cash on the markets. Daunting analytically programs come natural to me, so if you've got a winning strategy, I'm the guy who can implement it. About Me: This isn't my first go round with predictive algorithm software. This past season in the NFL, I built and maintained a predictive program that picked winning NFL teams called fantasy mainframe. The software would participate in cash salary leagues, and had a winning percentage of over 70%. The point is not to brag, but to look at the possibility of doing something similar with stocks. The NFL program looked at players on an individual basis and compared them with upcoming opponents, and then would rank them accordingly. I believe the same principles could be applied to stocks and options. A program would be more thorough and faster than it's human counterparts. I'm just not sure what disciplines or what to build into a program to make it effective - which is where partnering with you folks would come into play I don't have a tremendous bank roll, but should have enough to get started. In total, I have about $14k at play in the stock market. Prior to testing it live, I'd like to use a dummy account on any stuff we were to develop. Any tips that could point me in the right direction could be very helpful - stuff like books to ready, strategies you recommend, forum posts to follow up on, etc. Anyone who is interested in maybe teaming up can post here or email me at fantasymainframe at gmail dot com. TIA! Jeff
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