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BlowFish
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Posts posted by BlowFish
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If you want more XX's increase size as your equity grows. I'm sure you know this of course
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Hi jerry,
I did have an inkling where you where coming from
. Actually there are certainly a whole bunch of ducks that must line up before making it. Dealing with losing trades and equity draw down is perhaps one of the toughest 'ducks'.In support of your view it is surprising how many of the market wizards reported wiping out before making it (Schwager). Actually what is more surprising (and kind of scary) is how many have subsequently wiped out (since the books where published).
Cheers.
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I should stress that trending days are where I can easily make the bulk of my income.
Now, before you ask what's the problem then, the problem is really a matter of 'settling' for approx 2 ES pts per trade and re-entering during trend moves or trying to get that 10+ trade. That's more of a mental thing than anything else, but my hope was that visual WRB's might aid in that struggle.
Can easily or do easily? Its easy to see how you could with hindsight. What does your trading plan say? I suspect from how you have been talking you are winging it (deviating from your plan). Is it a "mental thing" or more of a "change my plan half way through type thing"? You will want a set of rules for each type of trade.
And you know for those 10 point trades trailing a 2 point stop isn't going to catch all of them (it may get one once in a while). Quite a few will go +2 3 4 or even more before coming back to close to your initial entry to re-test supply/demand then they'll take off. Others will go half way and then correct before the final 'leg'. Are you going to sit through all those?
Most people would be delighted with catching a few 2 or 3 pointers each week most would be delighted catching a 10 pointer each week. With proper use of capital you could pretty much take what you wanted from the markets.
Another 'btw' - on days like last Thursday (from memory) going for those 2-3 pointers (if the S&P was anything like the Russel or DAX) generated way way more than 10 points.
I can see a lot of your hard work been wasted which would be a shame. Again I speak from bitter experience, I have wasted so so much time and energy only to end up 6 months later right where I started again when plan B turned out not to be the holy grail.
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I'm not sure I can buy into that Jerry. Depending on your beliefs, attachments to money and a variety of other things you could do pretty serious damage to the psyche. There are not many endeavours that don't benefit from a little bit of basic instruction before jumping in. There are many that are likely to end up fatal. When you 'come back' do you think it is easier having wiped out?
There's an old adage about a person not being a great horesewoman until they have been thrown (thrown as opposed to falling off). Getting up without any instruction and trying to get yourself thrown will not make you a great rider when you get back in the saddle again - that's if you even summon up the courage.
Cheers.
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Be interested to hear what the doc says but I think we have it covered. Many people have said the same thing in different ways. Essentialy, You can't have it all. You need to know what moves you are trying to capture and stick to hunting them. While it seems you accept this at one level you are clearly resistant to the idea. (forgive me for becoming more blunt as you repeat the question
)Perhaps the question you need to be asking is why am I seeking 'perfection' in a place it can not be found (my plan) rather than a place it can be found (how I execute my plan). Well this is what I suspect having been down that particlar never ending path.
Ask yourself better questions and you will get better answers.
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Well I thought Id get in quick and jump into the Docs chair.
I think I am reasonably far along the path of a trader but there are a few things I would like to improve.
The main one is closing trades before they can work properly. Sometimes I might hesitate entering but that is rarer. Managing trades would be the umberella term. I think this is routed in fear - fear of being wrong probably more than fear of loseing capital on the trade. I think this is in part due to trying to seek some sort of validation in the market. I absolutely know I could do much better (though I am profitable). This is efecting my sense of self worth despite everything being pretty lined up in the rest of my life. Its frustrating to know the very subconcious things that think they are helping are the only obstacles to a job well done. (And really a job well done is more of a motivator than the $$).
When I worked I was respected (and renumerated) for my views and my knowledge. Of course the market dosent give a cr*p about my views or knowledge - not a great background for a trader! I guess this is something to do with it and is rooted in the ego needing stroking. Yeah yeah I know if I executed flawlessly then I would actually deserve a pat on the back.
The problem manfests itself almost completely subconciously...it sudenlly grabs the reins and clicks to close. Its almost like I conciously black out for a moment. I am sure 'it' thinks its trying to protect me but of course we all know thats not the case. I am trying enormously hard to confront this and have been doing better staying 'concious' for longer.
I trade pretty short time frames as ths minimises the effect of the malaise. I'd actually like to pick time frame by preference rather than have it dictated by a trading fault!!
Anyway I hope that this is of interest to you and other potential patients. I look forward to your thoughts.
Cheers.
Nick
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A little side question....Walter have you studied Drummonds stuff? Im not trading point and line but it is a remarkable body of work. The multiple time frame stuff is mind blowing.
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There is another alternative and that is that it just might not be true or the point that the person is trying to get across is just too vague or poorly defined to start with. I think some traders process market information subconciously and honestly dont know exactly how they are doing it.
Cheers.
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Your ahead of the game finding your way here. There are many BS forums around with all sorts of hucksters and snake oil salesmen waiting to snare the unwary.
In some ways I am envious, must be great to be starting off with a blank slate. Of course as others have pointed out the flipside is you have a lot of work ahead of you. The thing to do is to get a solid set of beliefs (preferably before you damage yourself in the markets). Some say that the damage is all part of the process, I dont think that is the case. Douglas tackles a couple of important beliefs. Reminisances of a Stock operator will stand you in good stead too. Thats probably one to read a dozen times.
There is lot of good imformation about but there is a lot of dubious stuff too. Again until you have a good grasp of market 'reality' and a solid belief system to protect you there is a distinct possibility you may get sidelined by some of this stuff. At best it will simply waste some time at worse it may plant seeds that are not based on market 'reality'. Be really careful about which paths you take - of course this is a bit of a catch 22 as just starting out are in no position to judge.
On the subject of indicators understand exactly how they are calculated, exactly what they are designed to show and hence how they 'work'. I'm loathe to give specific advice but indicators are simply tools. Decide what you want to achieve then pick the indicator. I threw all mine out years ago so probably am not the best to comment. I would say that most are derivatives of price so I decided to focus on that (price) instead. You might want to learn some of the fundamentals of 'price action' I think I can safely say that would not be time wasted.
There are several key elements to trading the 'technicals' are probably least important ...but Im all typed out for now.
Cheers.
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My personal favourites are
Using the bars themsleves - simply using higher highs and higher lows. Breaking previous swing high swing lows to signal a reverse or continuation of trend. Instantaneous no need for indicators once you look at enough charts you can see shifts in momentum and other nuances.
Basic trend lines - a break signifies a change in trend (might only be to sideways). I know a couple of scalpers that use nothing more than trend lines on constant tick charts. If you want to be adventurous draw a parallel to give you targets.
Floor Pivots - above the PP trend is up below down. For your time frame try using the previous hours or 30 minutes (H+L+C)/3 rather than the daily. Dosent come easier than that and is often spookily accurate in how price 'obeys' them. If price is 'too far' from the line trade the journey back to it.
Or you could use a 3rd order polynomial oscillator crossing 1.5 standard deviations from its apex. :-)
Cheers.
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Hey guys,---snip--
As I've mentioned a number of times here, in the end, it's all a giant mental game. And for me personally, not taking more out of a move that goes almost TWENTY ES pts in your favor is a battle that I cannot win. That's just me. Some guys won't bat an eye as long as they turned a profit, but I always push myself, esp in my trading business. I won't settle for 2-3 pts on a 20 pt move and be content. Again, it's not me.
Just a couple of things.
Firstly If you want to catch those 20 point moves you'll probably end up being stopped out of a lot more on those 2 pointers. It will require different approaches and more importantly knowledge when to apply each. Sometimes you will apply one where the other would work and vice versa. I guess this is one of the reasons people take half off and ride half.
Secondly (and this is something I really empathise with as I am prone to it too) don't over intellectualise. Sure view it as a game but like any game you can not win every hand/round/match. As I say, I speak from bitter experience but trading can actually be very simple once you get an idea of market 'strcture' and mechanics. I think we are all prone to overcomplicate things.
I'm not sure if I ever mentioned Eddie Toppels book "Zen in the Markets". You can easily read it in a couple of hours (which I do now and then if I feel I am over intellectualising or looking for 'perfection'). Its his contention that it is the ego at the back of all this.
Sure push yourself but there comes a time where a better read of the charts provides diminishing returns compared to looking inwards and improving things there. Well thats my case anyway.
Cheers,
btw there are some real pearls of wisdom in the last dozen or so posts. This really is a quality venue.
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A bit more on the charts you posted. To me the WRB actually confirmed the direction as up punching through resistance to the left. How ever you placed that resistance the consolidation was sitting on top of it (now support).
It really depends on what you are trying to capture.
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Any chance of posting those charts with volume?
Did you get another entry signal to get you long again? Then closing after the WRB would not have mattered too much.
Finally in answer to your question to PP the key things (IMO) are:-
1) Background strength weakness - not easy to determine without a 'full blown' VSA analysis.
2) S/R - are you in an area where you might expect a trend to end or pause? - nothing to do with VSA directly.
3) 'Climatic' volume. - you may be able to use a quick and dirty yes/no value for this but (IMO again) it is unreliable on its own. It is actually one of the trickiest bits of VSA to determine if you have enough volume to stop a trend and start accumulation/distribution or simply to cause a pause. Subsequent signs of strength weakness will confirm or deny whether it is.
Just some ideas. Cheers.
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The guys I had in mind where
Point & Figures DLL Pierre Orphin
and
SnapDragon Systems Limited Adam Hartley
I have never used them there porducts or services but they offer a standard P&F solution for tradestation that they may modify for you as they do bespoke too.
I also came across some metastock code that might possibly be converted. I'll search for the link later.
Also There are also a couple of people that do inexpensive standalone P&F software they tend to read data from ascii or metastock files (I.e. no real time data feed) maybe they might include volume by request?
The more I think about it the more I like the idea of what you are trying to visualise though Id go with colors myself :-)
Cheers.
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Oh btw I am guessing that English might not be your first language but by saying that you are still 'looking for constructive help' it kind of implies that the help you are getting is not constructive. This is not the best way to get people to continue to assist you.
Cheers.
Edited to add smilies don't wanna stir anything up
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The solution is to write the volume as a number inside each X or O ..What is the P&F ELD(s) ?
Have you got any ideas to help ?
I still look for a constructive Help ...
ELD is the format of easy languages script files. Sometimes called ELA's which was an older format.
Rather than write numbers (that are hard to digest) why not use different shading to represent the intensity of the volume? You could have a background behind '0' go from a very pale red to dark red and 'X' go from pale blue to dark blue for example. That also preserves the symetry of the O and X which I think is important. You would need pretty large boxes to print maybe a 4 or 5 digit number in. Just athought.
I am guessing you don't want to pay for this? I came across a couple of guys who sell P&F software for tradestation. They may change there stuff if they could see it adds value towhat they are selling.
Cheers.
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Good tips. I would add that you can get two upwaves back to back or an upwave and a sideways wave. Some would call those inversions I guess.
Elliot never made sense to me untill I broke the building block into smaller chunks. His 1,2,3,4,5 is actuall two abcd's in the same direction. Even then its too complex.
The more esoteric Gann stuff (well stuff that his followers attribute to him) is more focused on time than price also.
Cheers.
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"communications with globex"we were talking YM. YM doesn't trade on globex (not yet at least. when the merger goes through...)
Yes of course I am well aware of that. :-) It was just an anecdote of how things can go wrong. It was one of the largest single losses I have taken, probably the largest. Of course in the days of phone trading there was much more that could go wrong.
I thought this took the discussion into a broader and more useful direction..."know exactly where your orders are held" and "always check whether your orders have been elected or not". Having orders busted (a perfectly good order that has been accepted by the exchange cancelled at a later time) is another frustrating experience usually due to some fat fingered trader placing an order for 10k rather than 10 but that's another story.
It amazes me that people would consider executing a trade without understanding the basic nuts and bolts of the exchange.
Cheers.
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So many tools focus on price it is always of great interest to come across something that is orientated towards time.
I know a couple of Gann gurus who maintain finding inflection points in time is much easier than finding inflection points in price.
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I don't think I've ever seen a STOP MARKET order go green. If it isn't green, I'm pretty sure it's not native. The only orders i've seen go green are LIMIT orders, and these are held natively on the exchange.Have you seen your STOP MARKET orders go green?
Note that I only trade on NYMEX, NYSE, ECBOT. I've checked and of the ones I list here, STOP MARKET for ECBOT might be exchange native for IB, but I need to confirm. The orders don't go green, but when they are BLUE, for ECBOT, it may mean it is native.
Not sure about Nymex I have never looked at it ... that may be why we see different things. I don't trade ECBOT on a regular basis (well have not for a while) so would have to check. That may be one of the weird ones that needs a stop limit to go native (as opposed to a regular stop). The moral of the story of course is know your orders and know where they are held! At least with IB you know exactly where the order is held by the colour code.
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Note guys that IB does not provide native stops in pretty much all the markets we trade.IB provide native stops in all the markets I trade Eurex Globex CBOT CME. If memory serves me correctly when I checked out asia they do for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan. As far as far as I can tell if an exchange supports an order they provide it natively.
I'm not sure what you are basing your information on but I think you are mistaken. I guess you could be talking about spot forex but as that is not really a 'real' market there is nowhere to hold stops natively (unless you count taking a bet with your broker a 'real' market).
I dont use IB's platform directly I use an "order helper". However you can see exactly where your order is graphically on there traders workstation (TWS). Once it goes green in the appropriate column you can be sure it is sitting on the exchange.
IB Has its faults but breadth of markets you can trade and orders you can use in those markets are not one of them.
Cheers,
Nick.
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The implication is that he is doing this for the Trading Room revenue - which I do not believe is the case.---Snip---
I wonder what this belief is based on? Just interested from a purely academic point of view. I will always give the benefit of the doubt unless something clashes with my own market beliefs which are based on "truths" I have discovered or verified for myself. Having said that I still keep keep a healthy degree of scepticism untill I can verify things.
You seem pretty adamant and I just wondered what made you feel this way. PM me or ignore my question if you don't feel its appropriate for here.
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How would you display the volume? You cant put it on the X axis (as you only have 1 space per column) and you can't put it on the Y axis (as you only have 1 space per row).
I would hazard a guess there is/are P&F ELD(s) knocking around somewhere that you could probably modify.
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I had a bad experience once when an order held at my brokers (IB) was not elected due to their communications with globex going out the split second that it was hit. It disappeared off my trading screen so I though OK all is well. about a couple of hours later I got a message saying that it had not gone. Cost a lot. Just another lesson albeit an expensive one.
Most exchanges support either a stop or a stop limit natively (some support both) - just use a stop with a large limit if its the latter.
Wide Range Bodies or 'big' candles
in Volume Spread Analysis
Posted
There's your answer. Just forget those 10 pointers. Or at least trade them with a separate version of the plan. i think Ninja allows 2 completely seperate strategies from the same entry.
Then I guess those 2-3 day straight up moves will start looking appealing eh?